A chink in the ACC armor? FSU determining buyout options

[El Paso Eagle]

At this point it's not if, but when - you have to wonder how long until the two or three "Super" conferences happen

 

 

 

[Matt from A700]

16 teams is already too many teams for a conference, at least in football when it might be 4+ years before you play everyone.

[Wag Tag]

Clemson doing the same?

 

[GMG_Dallas]

If you read this article, they discuss the ACC as well:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/35698175/college-football-realignment-latest-chatter-pac-12-beyond

The problem is the current agreement goes through 2036 and with the mix of small private schools and big public schools, not everybody's needs are the same. Here's part of it regarding the ACC from the ESPN article:

"Just how binding are the grants of rights? School after school has gone to league headquarters to study them, so if there were an easy way out, some smart lawyer would have found it by now. (The ACC, like most leagues, doesn't allow copies of the television contracts and grants of rights out of the building, which protects the contracts from FOIA requests.)

The essence of an ACC escape is that it would cost more than $100 million to leave and the schools would still need legal wangling to get access to their own games' TV money for more than a decade. That's significant risk -- but there's also plenty of risk for the high-profile schools of falling hundreds of millions behind national competitors.

"Different lawyers have different opinions," an industry source said. "Eventually someone will take the leap. You'd assume that others would follow right behind."

As usual in college athletics, the lawyers would be sure to cash in. The only certainty from any type of attempted breakup or breakaway would be billable hours.

"If you are going to try and get out of the grant of rights, you better have a war chest," an industry source said. "You're going to need it to pay legal fees."'

[NT80]

1 hour ago, GMG_Dallas said:

"Different lawyers have different opinions," an industry source said. "Eventually someone will take the leap. You'd assume that others would follow right behind."

As usual in college athletics, the lawyers would be sure to cash in. The only certainty from any type of attempted breakup or breakaway would be billable hours.

"If you are going to try and get out of the grant of rights, you better have a war chest," an industry source said. "You're going to need it to pay legal fees."'

I'm sure the SEC has made it known it was interested to at least Florida State and Clemson, maybe North Carolina too.  There are 70 million reason$ a year those schools are looking for a way out of the ACC and to justify the cost to attempt it. 

[GMG_Dallas]

4 minutes ago, NT80 said:

I'm sure the SEC has made it known it was interested to at least Florida State and Clemson, maybe North Carolina too.  There are 70 million reason$ a year those schools are looking for a way out of the ACC and to justify the cost to attempt it. 

I'm sure there's talks with those schools. Just goes to show money is once again more important than winning. Not sure what they have to gain athletically from being in the SEC. The kids already know their brands. The odds of being a conference champion and getting the automatic spot in the football playoffs is greatly reduced going from the ACC to the SEC. Instead they'll finish around 8-4 and on the outside looking in. All they gain is tv money.

These conferences and separate media rights are destroying college football.

[NT80]

36 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

I'm sure there's talks with those schools. Just goes to show money is once again more important than winning. Not sure what they have to gain athletically from being in the SEC. The kids already know their brands. The odds of being a conference champion and getting the automatic spot in the football playoffs is greatly reduced going from the ACC to the SEC. Instead they'll finish around 8-4 and on the outside looking in. All they gain is tv money.

These conferences and separate media rights are destroying college football.

Agree.   But the chance to run with the Big Dogs (SEC) outweighs the reality of 7-5 records and 9th place in a 20-team conference.  

Eventually it will be just the P2.  20-team Super Conferences Big10 and SEC.

[Wag Tag]

They can’t wait 10 years. Pay the $100m and negotiate the balance. If that doesn’t work sue. I’m sure other schools would not be happy having to pay legal fees when they could probably arrange a higher buy out. There is No way Florida St and Clemson are going to sit.

[GMG_Dallas]

1 hour ago, NT80 said:

Agree.   But the chance to run with the Big Dogs (SEC) outweighs the reality of 7-5 records and 9th place in a 20-team conference.  

Eventually it will be just the P2.  20-team Super Conferences Big10 and SEC.

I'd like to think the powers will realize doing so will only cut their viewership and earnings over time.

There's an article from 2011 that speculated why March Madness generated more TV viewership than the NBA playoffs. Upsets is one of the reasons identified for the better viewership. I'd simplify that and say more fanbases can watch their teams make a run as opposed to the NBA which is set in 28 unique markets. Outside of the few markets that make the playoffs, people may not tune in unless they're a hard-core NBA fan. College basketball is different in that 68 universities, and fanbases,  will get a shot every year and no spot is ever guaranteed.

College football will die if you only get the same 10 to 15 teams in the playoff hunt every year. You can't grow if it's the same fans tuning in for their teams while fans of the other 100 FBS programs ignore college football after the regular season. Think about where the NFL would be if it were still the same few franchises stockpiling talent with no salary cap. A few markets would carry the league but the smaller markets couldn't survive as fans would check out if there was never any hope their team could win it all. The salary cap made the NFL the media power that it is today. The sooner the college football powers figure this out and even out the money and playing field, the sooner it'll start really growing its viewership in a way that mimics the NFL.

[NT80]

2 hours ago, GMG_Dallas said:

I'd like to think the powers will realize doing so will only cut their viewership and earnings over time.

There's an article from 2011 that speculated why March Madness generated more TV viewership than the NBA playoffs. Upsets is one of the reasons identified for the better viewership. I'd simplify that and say more fanbases can watch their teams make a run as opposed to the NBA which is set in 28 unique markets. Outside of the few markets that make the playoffs, people may not tune in unless they're a hard-core NBA fan. College basketball is different in that 68 universities, and fanbases,  will get a shot every year and no spot is ever guaranteed.

College football will die if you only get the same 10 to 15 teams in the playoff hunt every year. You can't grow if it's the same fans tuning in for their teams while fans of the other 100 FBS programs ignore college football after the regular season. Think about where the NFL would be if it were still the same few franchises stockpiling talent with no salary cap. A few markets would carry the league but the smaller markets couldn't survive as fans would check out if there was never any hope their team could win it all. The salary cap made the NFL the media power that it is today. The sooner the college football powers figure this out and even out the money and playing field, the sooner it'll start really growing its viewership in a way that mimics the NFL.

March Madness is great because smaller programs (underdogs) get access to the Tournament, and some resulting upset occur.   

Lack of access is the reason the CFP is usually mundane with the same teams and the same results.  TCU this year was refreshing in the Playoffs, but laid an egg, and thus a bad rap for future underdogs to have to overcome.

[NT80]

Florida State AD says lagging ACC revenue 'has to change'

"The (ACC) grant of rights is currently keeping the league together because any school that leaves would have to forfeit its media payout and media rights. But at some point, that grant of rights could be challenged in court, especially if the revenue gap continues to grow with no relief in sight."

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/35728303/florida-state-ad-says-lagging-acc-revenue-change

[GMG_Dallas]

5 minutes ago, NT80 said:

March Madness is great because smaller programs (underdogs) get access to the Tournament, and some resulting upset occur.   

Lack of access is the reason the CFP is usually mundane with the same teams and the same results.  TCU this year was refreshing in the Playoffs, but laid an egg, and thus a bad rap for future underdogs to have to overcome.

Everybody loves a good underdog story. Everybody also loves for their program to get a chance at glory. College football has become stale for me. Judging by their viewership, I'm not the only one. There's only so much you can watch Alabama - Clemson or Alabama - Georgia before you get bored.

[greenjoe]

Someone mentioned to me that a school, that I recall to be Florida State, had offered a recruit literally millions of dollars in NIL Money.  If they can offer one kid more than a million dollars, they can afford to do anything they want to do.

[GrayEagle]

If they can follow through, it looks as if the plan is for all of the ACC members to withdraw from the conference and  the former members of the Pac-12 to withdraw from that conference as well.  The west coast will add SMU and San Diego State to form a new Atlantic-Pacific (Mega) Conference.  The new conference will spread from San Diego CA to Boston MA and from Seattle WA to Miami FL.  I'm not sure if it's been decided but I believe that they will play a few crossover games a year and they will split the TV Money.  It does and does not make a lot of sense to me because they will get a very large TV contract which they now will have to split 26 ways.  Neither the PAC-12 or the ACC will continue to exist.  I do not know for certain that this has been confirmed but it's a big rumor.

[Green Otaku]

3 minutes ago, GrayEagle said:

If they can follow through, it looks as if the plan is for all of the ACC members to withdraw from the conference and  the former members of the Pac-12 to withdraw from that conference as well.  The west coast will add SMU and San Diego State to form a new Atlantic-Pacific (Mega) Conference.  The new conference will spread from San Diego CA to Boston MA and from Seattle WA to Miami FL.  I'm not sure if it's been decided but I believe that they will play a few crossover games a year and they will split the TV Money.  It does and does not make a lot of sense to me because they will get a very large TV contract which they now will have to split 26 ways.  Neither the PAC-12 or the ACC will continue to exist.  I do not know for certain that this has been confirmed but it's a big rumor.

Speaking from a purely feasibility standpoint, I'd find that scenario in those terms extremely unlikely if only because of the massive amount of red tape they would have to go through. From bowl tie-in contracts, tv, licensing, CFP pay outs, basketball credits, and all of the other little things we aren't even aware of. Ending contracts early is usually an expensive ordeal. I just don't see them able to get through a mountain of issues to make it happen. 

[El Paso Eagle]

If this scenario did happen I don't think all the teams would stay with those 2 conferences. It might just be worth it to see the Pac 12 commissioner explain this after his grandstand defense for keeping USC and UCLA was that this much traveling was detrimental for the students

[GMG_Dallas]

8 hours ago, Green Otaku said:

Speaking from a purely feasibility standpoint, I'd find that scenario in those terms extremely unlikely if only because of the massive amount of red tape they would have to go through. From bowl tie-in contracts, tv, licensing, CFP pay outs, basketball credits, and all of the other little things we aren't even aware of. Ending contracts early is usually an expensive ordeal. I just don't see them able to get through a mountain of issues to make it happen. 

You bring up some great points on the behind the scenes financial side. If this happens it'll be really interesting to see what happens the with college football playoffs with the top 6 conference champions getting the auto bid. Obviously they'll change it as soon as possible to cater to the new super conference. Will be interesting.

[NT80]

2 hours ago, GMG_Dallas said:

You bring up some great points on the behind the scenes financial side. If this happens it'll be really interesting to see what happens the with college football playoffs with the top 6 conference champions getting the auto bid. Obviously they'll change it as soon as possible to cater to the new super conference. Will be interesting.

It won't happen.  The ACC school's grant of media rights are tied up until 2036.  A few schools can afford to pay a $120M exit fee to join the SEC but most will not or can not.   The PAC is wanting a 5-year GOR with it's new media deal, if they can ever find one, lol.

[SMU2006]

This is all conjecture and bloviating from FSU.  That GoR is ironclad.  They have zero leverage.

 

[SMU2006]

1 hour ago, NT80 said:

It won't happen.  The ACC school's grant of media rights are tied up until 2036.  A few schools can afford to pay a $120M exit fee to join the SEC but most will not or can not.   The PAC is wanting a 5-year GOR with it's new media deal, if they can ever find one, lol.

PAC media rights will be announced the week of the PAC 12 basketball tourney.

[NT80]

6 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

This is all conjecture and bloviating from FSU.  That GoR is ironclad.  They have zero leverage.

 

They will negotiate themselves out early for a chance to join the SEC, just like uT and oU did from the Big12.  

ACC schools would gladly accept an instant extra $150m toward their programs. 

[NT80]

13 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

PAC media rights will be announced the week of the PAC 12 basketball tourney.

I heard they have a new media group interested….

[Green Otaku]

5 minutes ago, NT80 said:

They will negotiate themselves out early for a chance to join the SEC, just like uT and oU did from the Big12.  

ACC schools would gladly accept an instant extra $150m toward their programs. 

From my understanding if they want to leave the ACC it will cost them $100m plus, but that's only to leave. It does not include getting out of the GOR, so until 2035 the ACC would still control and receive that team's media rights. That's a non-starter for any conference wanting to add a team from the ACC. 

[2020 Sucks]

At this point, they should just affiliate with the NFL and call it the ACFC and NCFC.  If the NCAA won’t step up and manage the conferences…it’s just the Wild West!

[GMG_Dallas]

1 hour ago, NT80 said:

It won't happen.  The ACC school's grant of media rights are tied up until 2036.  A few schools can afford to pay a $120M exit fee to join the SEC but most will not or can not.   The PAC is wanting a 5-year GOR with it's new media deal, if they can ever find one, lol.

I agree it's a longshot. From what I've read, several programs have been trying to leave. Like @Green Otakusaid, once they pay the $100 mllion plus to leave, they then have to fight to get the media money for their own games until 2036.