SMU potentially to the PAC-12

ColoradoEagle · February 9, 2023

It would be a short sighted move, but I understand the temptation.

I don't see a world where Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Arizona, and Arizona State are in that conference in five years. It's just gonna be leftovers of Cal, Colorado (maybe), Oregon State, Utah, and Washington State. And maybe taking that risk is even more preferable to SMU fans/admin than being in a conference with us and the other CUSA 2.0 schools.

Edited February 9, 2023 by ColoradoEagle

TheColonyEagle · February 9, 2023

SMU when they get to the Pac12 and look for their new "name brand" conference mates:

vincent GIF

I still say they're a long shot to join, but the Pac 12 won't be the Pac 12 for long. It will basically be the Mountain West. I still don't understand the desire to go to new conferences because of their name. The Pac 12 name doesn't mean anything if USC and UCLA and the anchor schools aren't there anymore and you're just playing Fresno St. And we've done this as well. Remember how great going from the Sunbelt to CUSA was? Look at CUSA now. The AAC will be a shadow of itself in a few years. Just like the Pac 12 will. All of these conferences are made up of leftovers no one wants, and the "better half" of lower conferences. They eventually end up being bad conferences. There are only four real conferences in the whole country. Maybe 3 and it's not due to their names....it's due to the 10-12 programs that make up those conferences. The rest are leftovers.

I'm not saying that's a reason to stay in the Sunbelt or CUSA....you have to move. But it's not the move up that it appears to be on paper. And all that TV money will be gone in a few years because: why are you paying all that money to broadcast games that no one watches. Hey it's Pac 12 football! Today we have SMU vs Utah St in front of 10K fans in Dallas. That will be the Pac 12 in a few years. Yes in the short term, should SMU go to the Pac 12 it's a little boost and they can big time UNT and others but it's not sustainable long term.

Assume there is a split coming....SMU being in the new Pac 12 won't get them to the new big boy table that's coming in a few years. They'll be right back down in the "slums" with the rest of G5.

I guess grab the money while you can though.....

SMU2006 · February 9, 2023

17 minutes ago, ColoradoEagle said:

It would be a short sighted move, but I understand the temptation.

I don't see a world where Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Arizona, and Arizona State are in that conference in five years. It's just gonna be leftovers of Cal, Colorado (maybe), Oregon State, Utah, and Washington State. And maybe taking that risk is even more preferable to SMU fans/admin than being in a conference with us and the other CUSA 2.0 schools.

Even in that scenario its a 1000x better than AACCUSA.

SMU2006 · February 9, 2023

7 minutes ago, TheColonyEagle said:

SMU when they get to the Pac12 and look for their new "name brand" conference mates:

I still say they're a long shot to join, but the Pac 12 won't be the Pac 12 for long. It will basically be the Mountain West. I still don't understand the desire to go to new conferences because of their name. The Pac 12 name doesn't mean anything if USC and UCLA and the anchor schools aren't there anymore and you're just playing Fresno St. And we've done this as well. Remember how great going from the Sunbelt to CUSA was? Look at CUSA now. The AAC will be a shadow of itself in a few years. Just like the Pac 12 will. All of these conferences are made up of leftovers no one wants, and the "better half" of lower conferences. They eventually end up being bad conferences. There are only four real conferences in the whole country. Maybe 3 and it's not due to their names....it's due to the 10-12 programs that make up those conferences. The rest are leftovers.

I'm not saying that's a reason to stay in the Sunbelt or CUSA....you have to move. But it's not the move up that it appears to be on paper. And all that TV money will be gone in a few years because: why are you paying all that money to broadcast games that no one watches. Hey it's Pac 12 football! Today we have SMU vs Utah St in front of 10K fans in Dallas. That will be the Pac 12 in a few years. Yes in the short term, should SMU go to the Pac 12 it's a little boost and they can big time UNT and others but it's not sustainable long term.

Assume there is a split coming....SMU being in the new Pac 12 won't get them to the new big boy table that's coming in a few years. They'll be right back down in the "slums" with the rest of G5.

I guess grab the money while you can though.....

Trying to predict what will happen in 5 to 7 years with college realignment is a fool's errand.

Regardless, you take the invite and never look back. Certainly with what SMU is leaving behind in the AAC.

MrAlien · February 9, 2023

What does the media deal look like for SMU joining the pac12? I have seen a lot of streaming mentioned but no mention of TV networks, whats the point of joining just to play games on ESPN+?

The Mountain West will be the better conference going forward, Oregon and Washington are not going to stay. Take UCLA and SC out of the equation and the PAC12 is a 1 bid conference for the tournament.

meangreenbob · February 9, 2023

You know, I rarely if ever watch PAC 10 or PAC 12 football even if it’s USC or UCLA. That conference always seemed foreign to me. Plus the late start times.
Of the P5 conferences I will watch Big 10, Big 12 and some SEC.

I never watch MAC Football.

I will watch selected games from the MWC and SBC. Mainly certain teams and basically because of the atmosphere, like App State etc. I have always been inclined to tune in on an AAC game

The PAC or whatever is getting ready to be emasculated.

Terrible move for smu but I say, go for it!!

Edited February 9, 2023 by meangreenbob

meangreenbob · February 9, 2023

38 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

Even in that scenario its a 1000x better than AACCUSA.

Keep dreaming.

SMU2006 · February 9, 2023

6 minutes ago, meangreenbob said:

Keep dreaming.

There is no scenario for SMU that is as bad as the current AAC. I'll take my chances with anything else.

meangreenbob · February 9, 2023

Just now, SMU2006 said:

There is no scenario for SMU that is as bad as the current AAC. I'll take my chances with anything else.

Of course you will. The Pride is so intense that you’ll jump on a sinking ship. You have no clue how horrible those late start times are. And the long distance travel to play Fresno St, SDS and maybe SJS.

Look, I’m not saying don’t go for it but you’re leaving a conference you could never dominate to jump onboard one that’s sinking and also at a time of great uncertainty in our nation and the World.

Not a wise move. Just saying.

UNTLifer · February 9, 2023

10 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

There is no scenario for SMU that is as bad as the current AAC. I'll take my chances with anything else.

Mr Peanut GIF by Party Legends

Coffee and TV · February 9, 2023

16 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

There is no scenario for SMU that is as bad as the current AAC. I'll take my chances with anything else.

Conference USA?

TheColonyEagle · February 9, 2023

1 hour ago, SMU2006 said:

Trying to predict what will happen in 5 to 7 years with college realignment is a fool's errand.

Regardless, you take the invite and never look back. Certainly with what SMU is leaving behind in the AAC.

I would say closing your eyes and crossing your fingers and hoping like crazy that nothing changes is a bigger fool's errand. If you go....you're not going to the Pac12 as we know it.

But regardless, I agree....you take the invite and never look back.

both can be true....

DentonStang · February 9, 2023

Whole lot of "they will all leave" and very little "X will go to _______ and Y will go to ______"

When you try to actually think it through, nobody but maybe Oregon can go anywhere unless the media package is a complete disaster. Maybe it will be. But probably not.

But let's say it is. Media package is really low. Well if the value is that bad, then the big chunk of schools everyone is predicting leaving is not worth that much! So is B12 going to take a bunch of schools that reduce their payouts? There would be no point.

Edited February 9, 2023 by DentonStang

TheColonyEagle · February 9, 2023

And in case anyone wonders if the Pac 12 is going down hill....there's one simple thing that proves it

They're talking to SMU about joining.

keith · February 9, 2023

16 hours ago, Wag Tag said:

As stated before, the AAC and MWC should form some type of alliance. Now!

I don't think an alliance is necessary or the right move for the AAC. If/When SMU leaves, the AAC should go hard after Colorado State and Air Force. That gets football to 15 members. Leave a seat open to see if the conference can convince Army to leave independent status and join with the other two service academies.

All three service academies provides national exposure/interest and the conference covers three time zones. Winner!

ColoradoEagle · February 9, 2023

1 hour ago, TheColonyEagle said:

Remember how great going from the Sunbelt to CUSA was? Look at CUSA now. The AAC will be a shadow of itself in a few years.

I agree with most everything you said, but this particular part isn't apples to apples. CUSA 2.0 may never have gotten to the point it was before our move, however the media contract completely killed that conference. Sun Belt football getting to the point it did was because of a gigantic vacuum left on ESPN by Judy signing a Myspace contract.

You will see drop-off from UH, Cincy, and UCF leaving, obviously, but it shouldn't be as steep of a drop-off as Judy caused.

keith · February 9, 2023

2 hours ago, SMU2006 said:

The last one that comes to mind is Temple getting booted from the Big East in 2004.

The Big East was never a P5 football conference. I think once you're admitted to the "club" you are in for good.

Also, at some point it's not just about making the playoffs. It's about winning it all. There is a hierarchy and better conferences are, in general, going to get better recruits or attract the best transfers. SEC gets better than B12 (see Texas and OU to the SEC), the BiG gets better than the PAC12 (see USC and UCLA to the BiG), the PAC12 will get better than AAC (SMU to the PAC12), so it's all about positioning yourself to get better/more competitive in the long run.

The idea that SMU has a better chance of winning the AAC than the PAC12 in order to make the playoffs just to get clobber stomped by Georgia or any other SEC Team is better than moving to the PAC12 where they can gradually improve is flawed. Texas, OU, USC, UCLA are moving because they want a shot at the better athletes that those two conferences have demonstrated they are able to attract. They don't just want to make the playoffs, they want teams that can win it all.

MeanGreenGlory · February 9, 2023

1 hour ago, keith said:

I don't think an alliance is necessary or the right move for the AAC. If/When SMU leaves, the AAC should go hard after Colorado State and Air Force. That gets football to 15 members. Leave a seat open to see if the conference can convince Army to leave independent status and join with the other two service academies.

All three service academies provides national exposure/interest and the conference covers three time zones. Winner!

I agree with this.

SMU2006 · February 9, 2023

1 hour ago, meangreenbob said:

Of course you will. The Pride is so intense that you’ll jump on a sinking ship. You have no clue how horrible those late start times are. And the long distance travel to play Fresno St, SDS and maybe SJS.

Look, I’m not saying don’t go for it but you’re leaving a conference you could never dominate to jump onboard one that’s sinking and also at a time of great uncertainty in our nation and the World.

Not a wise move. Just saying.

I'll remind myself of the late starts when we're playing Washington, Utah, and Oregon instead of UAB, Charlotte, and FAU.

meangreenbob · February 9, 2023

9 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

I'll remind myself of the late starts when we're playing Washington, Utah, and Oregon instead of UAB, Charlotte, and FAU.

Yep. All National Power Houses.

Edited February 9, 2023 by meangreenbob

SMU2006 · February 9, 2023

Just now, meangreenbob said:

Yep. All National Power Houses. Lol

Uhhhh yes. Compared to anything that's left in the AAC for damn sure.

ColoradoEagle · February 9, 2023

6 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

I'll remind myself of the late starts when we're playing ~~Washington~~, Utah, and ~~Oregon~~ instead of UAB, Charlotte, and FAU.

FIFY

SMU2006 · February 9, 2023

Just now, ColoradoEagle said:

FIFY

I'd gladly take one Utah over anything in the AAC.

meangreenbob · February 9, 2023

10 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

Uhhhh yes. Compared to anything that's left in the AAC for damn sure.

Just remember you couldn’t even dominate the AAC.

ColoradoEagle · February 9, 2023

Just now, SMU2006 said:

I'd gladly take one Utah over anything in the AAC.

Hey, if it works for you. If it were my school, I'd be worried that a few years from now the new conference we're in could consist of current MWC schools plus Cal, Oregon State, Utah, and Washington State.

Probably a stronger overall conference than the 2023 AAC, but not by much, and definitely not by enough to have the closest away game be in Albuquerque.