SMU potentially to the PAC-12

[DentonStang]

35 minutes ago, Mike Jackson said:

The fact that you are on a board of an old FCS team that has caught up to your current conference spouting this is the richest of ironies.  I wonder what is the going rent rate for space in Highland Park heads?  😂

I don't know, but I live in Denton and can assure you it's much cheaper.

[cousin oliver]

2 minutes ago, DentonStang said:

I don't know, but I live in Denton and can assure you it's much cheaper.

On this we can agree.

[Green Otaku]

1 hour ago, DentonStang said:

Aww shucks, you're right. It might turn out badly so we had better not even try. Much better to sit around playing Charlotte and UAB waiting to be relegated to the new version of FCS.  At least then nobody could laugh at us for trying and failing. 

 

We'd laugh at you either way. 

[Rudy]

1 hour ago, Mike Jackson said:

Without UCLA & USC cheerleaders what’s the point?  

Valid point.

[greenminer]

5 hours ago, DentonStang said:

Aww shucks, you're right. It might turn out badly so we had better not even try. Much better to sit around playing Charlotte and UAB waiting to be relegated to the new version of FCS.  At least then nobody could laugh at us for trying and failing. 

Thoughts on the Sun Belt the last 10 years? There have been grumblings around here that their quality of ball surpassed CUSA.  I feel like it's a good example of how a conference can develop exponentially compared to its peers.

Laugh at some of the AAC newcomers all you want.  But IMO the PAC12 is in an unprecedented position right now.  I think it could fall very far off the map, lower than who-knows-what, and that might mean really bad things for a team clinging to it from Dallas.

Edited February 17, 2023 by greenminer

[greenminer]

I wonder if/when this all shakes out, the story of conference alignment will be of

1) A select few mega-conferences.  SEC/B10/B12?  It doesn't look like the PAC12 is going to be a part of that.
2) leftovers that make smart, regional moves
3) the rest: leftovers that did not make smart regional moves, and struggle to find their identity.

Edited February 17, 2023 by greenminer
typo

[NT80]

 

USA Today:  

No one is rushing to pay top dollar to broadcast Pac-12 games, making league look weak

 

"But Kliavkoff’s trip last week to scope out SMU, which became public when he was spotted at a basketball game, is a head-scratcher. SMU is a terrific university and a solid athletic program that happens to be located in a great market.

Realistically, though, SMU is a private school with a relatively small fan base that doesn’t move the needle much in Dallas or anywhere else.

Going so far outside the Pacific or Mountain time zones just to add SMU smells like a desperate dart throw in hopes that the theoretical “Dallas market” adds some dollars to a streaming deal." 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/columnist/dan-wolken/2023/02/16/pac-12-looks-weak-no-one-pay-broadcast-rights-deal/11273933002/

Edited February 17, 2023 by NT80

[DentonStang]

28 minutes ago, NT80 said:

 

USA Today:  

No one is rushing to pay top dollar to broadcast Pac-12 games, making league look weak

 

"But Kliavkoff’s trip last week to scope out SMU, which became public when he was spotted at a basketball game, is a head-scratcher. SMU is a terrific university and a solid athletic program that happens to be located in a great market.

Realistically, though, SMU is a private school with a relatively small fan base that doesn’t move the needle much in Dallas or anywhere else.

Going so far outside the Pacific or Mountain time zones just to add SMU smells like a desperate dart throw in hopes that the theoretical “Dallas market” adds some dollars to a streaming deal." 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/columnist/dan-wolken/2023/02/16/pac-12-looks-weak-no-one-pay-broadcast-rights-deal/11273933002/

So translation "I have no actual knowledge of the strategy or negotiations but here's my best guess"

[dodgefan]

16 hours ago, DentonStang said:

Aww shucks, you're right. It might turn out badly so we had better not even try. Much better to sit around playing Charlotte and UAB waiting to be relegated to the new version of FCS.  At least then nobody could laugh at us for trying and failing. 

It seems like our fans don't want you guy's to go, but, looking at SMU's recruiting ranking, including the #4 portal class in the country and the #1 non P5 class by a mile, more rational UNT fans should want SMU gone from the AAC, we would have a better chance of winning our division. If we had a chance to be in a P5, we would jump in a heart beat.

Edited February 17, 2023 by dodgefan

[Mike Jackson]

42 minutes ago, dodgefan said:

It seems like our fans don't want you guy's to go, but, looking at SMU's recruiting ranking, including the #4 portal class in the country and the #1 non P5 class by a mile, more rational UNT fans should want SMU gone from the AAC, we would have a better chance of winning our division. If we had a chance to be in a P5, we would jump in a heart beat.

Taking that logic to the extreme we should try to build a conference full of FBS bottom feeders.  I am neutral on SMU in our conference, I just want to play them and beat them enough to make the game a stop down sports rivalry event for the DFW area.  And the PAC-12 is now P5-Lite at best now and trending down.  And if SMU becomes the Vanderbilt of best possible lineup of a PAC-12 without USC and UCLA that makes beating them less fun IMO.  🤷🏽‍♂️

Edited February 17, 2023 by Mike Jackson

[dodgefan]

5 minutes ago, Mike Jackson said:

Taking that logic to the extreme we should try to build a conference full of FBS bottom feeders.  I am neutral on SMU in our conference, I just want to play them and beat them enough to make the game a stop down sports rivalry event for the DFW area.  And the PAC-12 is now P5-Lite at best now and trending down.  And if SMU becomes the Vanderbilt of best possible lineup of a PAC-12 without USC and UCLA that makes beating them less fun IMO.  🤷🏽‍♂️

Beating SMU when they are a P5, would be a much bigger feather in our cap. It would be great for a "stop down rivalry" but I don't think anyone see's that happening. I just looked up the game history with the Mustangs and they have a 35-6 record against us. We would have to go on 8 game winning streak, just to make it interesting.

[SMU2006]

2 hours ago, Mike Jackson said:

Taking that logic to the extreme we should try to build a conference full of FBS bottom feeders.  I am neutral on SMU in our conference, I just want to play them and beat them enough to make the game a stop down sports rivalry event for the DFW area.  And the PAC-12 is now P5-Lite at best now and trending down.  And if SMU becomes the Vanderbilt of best possible lineup of a PAC-12 without USC and UCLA that makes beating them less fun IMO.  🤷🏽‍♂️

P5 Lite is an ocean away from the AAC and will be reflected in the TV dollars and bowl tie-ins.

Edited February 17, 2023 by SMU2006

[southsideguy]

The ACC is worried they will collapse if a few schools jump.  It will come down to two or three P-5 conferences.  They are not going to share the money with anyone else.

[Mike Jackson]

47 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

P5 Lite is an ocean away from the AAC and will be reflected in the TV dollars and bowl tie-ins.

How many of those TV dollars buy wins or fans in seats?  And with the 12 team playoff, bowls are even less compelling post season exhibition games that even more transferring and draft eligible players will skip.  These are points an AD will bring up when negotiating his next contract but meaningless to recruits and most fans.  The only thing I really want UNT to be in a P5 for is stability and survival when inevitably the upper half of FBS will have to start treating players like employees. I only see that as financially viable in P5 conferences and even some the weaker P5 teams will just drop out.  I see no more than 80-100 participants in this new semi-pro model of FBS.  If that number is below 80 I wouldn’t be surprised.

Edited February 17, 2023 by Mike Jackson

[Mike Jackson]

2 hours ago, dodgefan said:

Beating SMU when they are a P5, would be a much bigger feather in our cap. It would be great for a "stop down rivalry" but I don't think anyone see's that happening. I just looked up the game history with the Mustangs and they have a 35-6 record against us. We would have to go on 8 game winning streak, just to make it interesting.

I think you are exaggerating on an old man scale.   All we need is for both teams to be good* for a decade and UNT to be 6-4 during that period.  Only guys over 35 know the history and put weight into it. 
 

*SMU only has to be 0.500 during this run.

[greenminer]

4 hours ago, dodgefan said:

It seems like our fans don't want you guy's to go, but, looking at SMU's recruiting ranking, including the #4 portal class in the country and the #1 non P5 class by a mile, more rational UNT fans should want SMU gone from the AAC, we would have a better chance of winning our division. If we had a chance to be in a P5, we would jump in a heart beat.

As a general rule, you want to surround yourself by the best possible competition.  It elevates your own level of play.

[El Paso Eagle]

31 minutes ago, greenminer said:

As a general rule, you want to surround yourself by the best possible competition.  It elevates your own level of play.

Of course we would jump at the chance. Again, separate the possible achievement form the fact that a handful of SMU troolers (even though there is usually a difference in trolling and just being a prick) act like idiots. Let them do what they want. The fact is they have the financial resources, can't draw fans (after all, you are Dallas' team) and have an entire Big 12 conference which once again wanted nothing to do with you (I guess your not the only one's who think their too good for another school to be in the same conference.) Just realize you are not building or earning anything; you're just the school who can but their way in.

[meanrob]

2 hours ago, SMU2006 said:

P5 Lite is an ocean away from the AAC and will be reflected in the TV dollars and bowl tie-ins.

The issue isn’t P5 lite, the issue is what happens with Oregon and WA. I think they are the only schools with the cache to be taken by the Big Ten. Keep those and you’re good, lose those and you have major problems. 

[NT80]

7 minutes ago, meanrob said:

The issue isn’t P5 lite, the issue is what happens with Oregon and WA. I think they are the only schools with the cache to be taken by the Big Ten. Keep those and you’re good, lose those and you have major problems. 

The fracture will come with lower media rights $$ and the Big12 wanting to expand taking Pac12 teams.  

[Wag Tag]

I hope SMU gets into the Pac12..could be fun having those teams visiting DFW and I would like to beat PAC 12 teams

[GrayEagle]

22 hours ago, TIgreen01 said:

Worst case scenario, all but WSU and OSU leave the Pac12 this is MWC + Pac12 roster:

Air Force, Boise, Colorado St, Fresno St, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego St, San Jose St, UNLV, Utah St, Wyoming, Wash St, Oregon St, SMU

Vs the AAC:

East Carolina, Memphis, Navy, South Florida, Temple, Tulane, Tulsa;  Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB, UTSA

I do tend to think that Washington and Oregon leave the Pac12.  Whether they get a B10 invite or go independent, they should leave that group.  I think it's a stretch to assume that the 4 corner schools gain all that much by jumping.  Presumably they don't add much value to their OWN media deal.  Why would the Big12 water down their media money by adding them?  Doesn't make sense to me.  Of those 4 corner schools, the 2 most likely to add value to Big 12 are Arizona and Colorado.  Arizona values basketball and there is no question the Big12 is the best basketball conference now, and likely still even after all this dust settles.  But their football is a mess.  Colorado already left the Big12 once, and it was a vastly superior conference then vs today.  Realistically, Pac12 can still lose Wash and Oregon and then pickoff the best of the MWC.  That could then look something like this:

New Pac10:

Arizona, Arizona St, Boise, Colorado, Oregon St, San Diego St, SMU, UNLV, Utah, Wash St

New MWC10:

Air Force, Colorado St, Fresno St, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose st, Utah St, UTEP, Wyoming

The new Pac10 is definitely not a power conference with that new lineup, but it is a step above the new MWC and the new AAC.  The new AAC is a better conference than the new MWC (which has essentially become the old Big West/WAC again).

I like the realignments so far but I have a couple of questions and comments. You still have the AAC at 13 which is a scheduling nightmare, so if you added a team to make it 14, who would you add?  What will happen to Stanford and Cal?  Do they remain a part of the Pac12/10 or go independent?  If they remained, would they add enough to make the Pac 12 a power conference?  

[meanrob]

2 hours ago, NT80 said:

The fracture will come with lower media rights $$ and the Big12 wanting to expand taking Pac12 teams.  

Until the media rights are signed we don’t know how much they’ll get. I’ll believe the lower numbers when I see them. And I don’t buy the Big 12 taking four. Then again I know nothing. 
 

But the demise of leagues keeps getting predicted and I don’t buy that either. Almost all of this is predicated on how the expanded playoffs work out. 

[dodgefan]

 UNT fans were thrilled to get into the AAC, and according to AAC sources, SMU's president pushed hard for UNT to get membership. So we have SMU to thank for helping us get in, but, I have to wonder, why some schools like Charolette, UAB and FAU were accepted.

[El Paso Eagle]

23 minutes ago, dodgefan said:

 UNT fans were thrilled to get into the AAC, and according to AAC sources, SMU's president pushed hard for UNT to get membership. So we have SMU to thank for helping us get in, but, I have to wonder, why some schools like Charolette, UAB and FAU were accepted.

Same as us - Access to the markets and a willingness to invest in their programs

[NT80]

5 hours ago, meanrob said:

Until the media rights are signed we don’t know how much they’ll get. I’ll believe the lower numbers when I see them. And I don’t buy the Big 12 taking four. Then again I know nothing. 
 

But the demise of leagues keeps getting predicted and I don’t buy that either. Almost all of this is predicated on how the expanded playoffs work out. 

Agree.  But "All Quiet on the Western Front" for multiple months is leading many outlets to speculate that the media-bidding news is not going as well as expected.   Floating other potential members names in large media markets (SDSU and Smut) is another sign of trying to negotiate more $$.   The word-salad "loyality oath" that the PAC12 put out on Monday is just what the Big East did... before teams started to bail and the football conference folded.

“The 10 Pac-12 universities look forward to consummating successful media rights deal(s) in the very near future,” the statement says. “Based upon positive conversations with multiple potential media rights partners over the past weeks, we remain highly confident in our future growth and success as a conference and united in our commitment to one another.”     

(Rah!)

https://www.si.com/college/2023/02/13/pac-12-expansion-rumors-statement-united-big-12

 

Edited February 18, 2023 by NT80