SMU potentially to the PAC-12

El Paso Eagle · February 9, 2023

One thing to keep in mind when we think of this is what SMU (the school) has been doing to try and improve, not the comments of asshole fans on a board who like to take credit for something they have nothing to do with. We invested in an effort to try and improve and are getting an opportunity, they are trying to do the same thing, and if we had the opportunity to go to a P5 we would also. Don't base you opinion of SMU solely on the comments of these wannabes.

The thing I don't like about this is that it gives the lower tier teams in the PAC 12 a recruiting opening to Texas recruits. As far as bringing the "TV" market; who knows. The NFL has shown with streaming Thursday Night football that they took a ratings hit. So who knows how it will work. Not sure how the Big 12 will react, if they will at all, but it would surprise me if they did not go after someone in the West to pair with BYU.

MeanGreenMan09 · February 9, 2023

I wouldn't start counting those big TV deal bucks just yet, also your new commissioner looks to be a clown. Have fun with that sinking ship.

SMU2006 · February 9, 2023

2 minutes ago, MeanGreenMan09 said:

I wouldn't start counting those big TV deal bucks just yet, also your new commissioner looks to be a clown. Have fun with that sinking ship.

We'll take our chances against what we're leaving behind in the AAC. Even conservative estimates will be double what SMU is currently getting from the AAC deal so yeah. Not really a sinking ship when contrasted with a ship that has already sunk.

El Paso Eagle · February 9, 2023

3 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

We'll take our chances against what we're leaving behind in the AAC. Even conservative estimates will be double what SMU is currently getting from the AAC deal so yeah. Not really a sinking ship when contrasted with a ship that has already sunk.

You spill is getting old. Thank goodness you are actually irrelevant in their decision making. If SMU goes, then so be it, but stop acting like your too good for a league you never won. If the big 3 were not leaving SMU would be the 4th to 5th best team. The powers that be at SMU will make the best decision for them based on the overall impact. There is always a lot more going on behind the scenes than we will ever know. It probably ends up happening, but if not, try winning your league before you talk about being too good.

Green Otaku · February 9, 2023

1 hour ago, DentonStang said:

Whole lot of "they will all leave" and very little "X will go to _______ and Y will go to ______"

When you try to actually think it through, nobody but maybe Oregon can go anywhere unless the media package is a complete disaster. Maybe it will be. But probably not.

But let's say it is. Media package is really low. Well if the value is that bad, then the big chunk of schools everyone is predicting leaving is not worth that much! So is B12 going to take a bunch of schools that reduce their payouts? There would be no point.

The Big12 contract is reported to have a pro rata clause that any P5 they add will be able to come in at the same share.

https://awfulannouncing.com/ncaa/big-12s-new-media-rights-deals-reportedly-contain-pro-rata-clause-in-case-of-future-expansion.html

This is the dagger hanging over the Pac12s head if their payout is significantly lower.

Green Otaku · February 9, 2023

Oh, and just to be clear. Unlike some arguing against the move, I wholeheartedly think they should do it. Sign as soon as they give you the contract, don't even look at the fine print.

MrAlien · February 9, 2023

I'd still like to know what the media deal is going to look like. Big part of that tweet was that the Pac was looking for a new media rights partner to rely heavily on streaming. With out a major network deal, can that deal really be that lucrative?

TheColonyEagle · February 9, 2023

34 minutes ago, MeanGreenMan09 said:

I wouldn't start counting those big TV deal bucks just yet, also your new commissioner looks to be a clown. Have fun with that sinking ship.

interesting article....

I've never understood this, (and I'm not trash talking SMU) Objectively speaking how does SMU give the Pac 12 the "Dallas Market" for a TV deal? No one in Dallas watches SMU or goes to their games (unless TCU or UNT are there) Again, not trash talking I don't understand the logic. If a tree falls in the woods.....

DentonStang · February 9, 2023

26 minutes ago, Green Otaku said:

The Big12 contract is reported to have a pro rata clause that any P5 they add will be able to come in at the same share.

https://awfulannouncing.com/ncaa/big-12s-new-media-rights-deals-reportedly-contain-pro-rata-clause-in-case-of-future-expansion.html

This is the dagger hanging over the Pac12s head if their payout is significantly lower.

The pro-rata is only on the ESPN portion and not the Fox portion so they still lose in per - school payout. But yes, it might be worth it for all parties if the PAC deal is a disaster. All of the articles good and bad are speculation right now. So we'll see. Nobody really knows. Either way, the 'floor' on what might happen if it goes bad is not any lower than the AACUSA.

One thing I do know is this PAC-SMU talk started many months ago, at least. It's not a panic move due to negotiations. Maybe still panic, who knows, but the narrative that it is a quick panic add is incorrect.

UNTLifer · February 9, 2023

36 minutes ago, TheColonyEagle said:

interesting article....

I've never understood this, (and I'm not trash talking SMU) Objectively speaking how does SMU give the Pac 12 the "Dallas Market" for a TV deal? No one in Dallas watches SMU or goes to their games (unless TCU or UNT are there) Again, not trash talking I don't understand the logic. If a tree falls in the woods.....

Not true. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State also brought a large group of visiting fans.

Green Otaku · February 9, 2023

10 minutes ago, DentonStang said:

The pro-rata is only on the ESPN portion and not the Fox portion so they still lose in per - school payout. But yes, it might be worth it for all parties if the PAC deal is a disaster. All of the articles good and bad are speculation right now. So we'll see. Nobody really knows. Either way, the 'floor' on what might happen if it goes bad is not any lower than the AACUSA.

One thing I do know is this PAC-SMU talk started many months ago, at least. It's not a panic move due to negotiations. Maybe still panic, who knows, but the narrative that it is a quick panic add is incorrect.

Yes, but don't forget the massive exit fees OU/UT are going to have to pay. They can use those to compensate their current members, and to boost payment to any new members if Fox won't up their share. I think the reported fee is $80m each. The reported total payout after BB credits and CFP money is reported at $50m per school starting in 2025. If you are one of the 4 corners schools, and the Big 12 is willing to take you, I don't see how that's not at least a possibility on the table. Everything hinges on what the Pac deal looks like.

I don't doubt SMU has been working for many months to see what was possible. Any school would be open to/actively pursuing a move up.

Green Otaku · February 9, 2023

41 minutes ago, MrAlien said:

I'd still like to know what the media deal is going to look like. Big part of that tweet was that the Pac was looking for a new media rights partner to rely heavily on streaming. With out a major network deal, can that deal really be that lucrative?

Rumors are that they might go full in on Amazon streaming. Amazon certainly has the money to match what number they may be looking for, but the big risk is losing exposure. If they go that route it's a huge gamble. On one hand they may be in the forefront of how sports are consumed, on the other it could backfire completely. When you are at a bar or restaurant how many people are going to boot up Amazon to stream a football game? Casual football fans flip through the TV and watch what's on, it's very unlikely that they would browse Amazon for sports content.

GrandGreen · February 9, 2023

23 hours ago, SMU2006 said:

What was the TV revenue associated with UNT's time in the Big West versus the $15-25m SMU would get being in the PAC?

Once again, I think SMU gets more attention on this messageboard than their own.

I think it is a bad decision to join the PAC, but apparently they don't; so I wish them limited luck.

They don't have more than a thousand fans that will make the long dangerous trip to Denton, so a far flung conference should not hurt them at all.

SMU2006 · February 9, 2023

27 minutes ago, Green Otaku said:

Rumors are that they might go full in on Amazon streaming. Amazon certainly has the money to match what number they may be looking for, but the big risk is losing exposure. If they go that route it's a huge gamble. On one hand they may be in the forefront of how sports are consumed, on the other it could backfire completely. When you are at a bar or restaurant how many people are going to boot up Amazon to stream a football game? Casual football fans flip through the TV and watch what's on, it's very unlikely that they would browse Amazon for sports content.

It won't be completely digital/streaming but AMAZON will want its share of content for their streaming service. Either way most are saying 30-35m per school. I would imagine SDSU and SMU come in at half.

SMU2006 · February 9, 2023

29 minutes ago, GrandGreen said:

Once again, I think SMU gets more attention on this messageboard than their own.

I think it is a bad decision to join the PAC, but apparently they don't; so I wish them limited luck.

They don't have more than a thousand fans that will make the long dangerous trip to Denton, so a far flung conference should not hurt them at all.

We took 7,500 to Ann Arbor. We don't go to Denton b/c well.....its Denton. And I don't mean that as a bad thing believe me. But its hard to get SMU folks and students to go a DFW suburb to watch a game. I wish it weren't that way but it is.

Edited February 9, 2023 by SMU2006

meangreenbob · February 9, 2023

23 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

We took 7,500 to Ann Arbor. We don't go to Denton b/c well.....its Denton. And I don't mean that as a bad thing believe me. But its hard to get SMU folks and students to go a DFW suburb to watch a game. I wish it weren't that way but it is.

Honestly buddy why are you over here? The only explanation is you have a deep seeded inferiority complex. Go back to your board, the PAC or the AAC board to discuss the future of your school.

NT80 · February 9, 2023

17 hours ago, ADLER said:

To circumvent that, they'd have to, with SMU, join the MWC. They can then call that cobbled conference the Pac12 but it would be that in name only.

This is exactly what would remain. It will be a new Big West Conference with a PAC12 label.

Cooke County Kid · February 9, 2023

Let us be real folks. To SMU and your fans good luck in the PAC and I mean that, heck I even hope it survives. The PAC is kinda a move up, we would be going as well if invited. Mean while back here in Denton we are going to continue our forward march and look forward to continuing our rivalry for many years to come. Heck, the future is bright no telling what it may bring…….

DentonStang · February 9, 2023

1 hour ago, Green Otaku said:

Rumors are that they might go full in on Amazon streaming. Amazon certainly has the money to match what number they may be looking for, but the big risk is losing exposure. If they go that route it's a huge gamble. On one hand they may be in the forefront of how sports are consumed, on the other it could backfire completely. When you are at a bar or restaurant how many people are going to boot up Amazon to stream a football game? Casual football fans flip through the TV and watch what's on, it's very unlikely that they would browse Amazon for sports content.

The streaming issue is an interesting one. Definitely hurts the number of games in a bar, or people flipping back and forth. But I wonder how much impact there really is there. The deal will likely include some ESPN games on broadcast. How many PAC games were really on prime slots on real channels before vs now? Some loss surely but not a total loss. How many really matter?

Also, if the partner is Amazon, what I'd they really push it? What if every time you open your Amazon app to buy new socks you get bombarded with a PAC advertisement? Is that worth much? Or how about games bring available to watch anytime, not just live? Does that help?

I don't know the answers but if done with innovation could be good.

Wag Tag · February 9, 2023

The Pac12 needs Central Time Zone teams for the additional exposure. As does the MWC. I could see them going after a couple of additional AAC teams.

El Paso Eagle · February 9, 2023

19 minutes ago, DentonStang said:

The streaming issue is an interesting one. Definitely hurts the number of games in a bar, or people flipping back and forth. But I wonder how much impact there really is there. The deal will likely include some ESPN games on broadcast. How many PAC games were really on prime slots on real channels before vs now? Some loss surely but not a total loss. How many really matter?

Also, if the partner is Amazon, what I'd they really push it? What if every time you open your Amazon app to buy new socks you get bombarded with a PAC advertisement? Is that worth much? Or how about games bring available to watch anytime, not just live? Does that help?

I don't know the answers but if done with innovation could be good.

This is very interesting. I guess they will be able to truly understand who is watching. On the positive side, you can get a lot of your shopping done during the timeouts and at the half.

Monkeypox · February 9, 2023

In the long run, this is all short-term movement until the inevitable P2-P4, which is already gestating. Like it or not, the Big12 isn't a "Power Conference" without the massive revenue generated by UT and OU, and the same for the Pac-12 without their big dollar programs.

It's good for SMU, just like moving to the AAC is good for UNT, just like moving to the Big12 is still good for Houston and Cincinnati. It's just that the level of goodness isn't what it would've been a couple of decades ago, and it's only going to be at the current level of goodness until the next round of madness and/or full consolidation occurs.

Edited February 9, 2023 by Monkeypox