Recruiting History: Interesting Findings

[UNTLifer]

I decided to look back through our recruiting rankings on 247 through the years and discovered some interesting findings.  Some of our most successful players were not rated very high coming out of high school and some of our highest rated recruits have never really contributed.  Here are some that exceeded their rankings:

Craig Robertson, 2 star/.7222

Lance Dunbar, 3 star/.8274

Derek Thompson, 2 star/.7889

Mason Y'Barbo, 2 star/.7870

Zach Orr, 2 star/.7667

Will Wright, Richard Abbe, Brelan Chancellor, Derek Akunne and Cyril Lemon 2 star/.7333

Lairamie Lee and James Jones, 2 star/.7000

Jeff Wilson, 2 star/.7676

Mason Fine, 2 star/.7743

E.J. Ejiya, 2 star/.7633

Kemon Hall, not rated

Jayaire Shorter, 3 star/.8165

Deandre Torrey, 3 star/.8056

It is also interesting to note the top rated players in each class and how they panned out.  Here they are in order from 2022 - 2003: Cam Robertson, Caleb Johnson, Eric Williams, Deonte Simpson, Alex Morris, Jalen Guyton, Nic Smith, Kevin Dillman, Caleb Chumley, Chad Davis, Boone Feldt, Freddie Warner, Antonio Johnson, Jeremy Bean, Riley Dodge, Jordan Scoggins, Kelvin Drake, Willie Ransom, Jamario Thomas and Michael Pruitt.  The ones I put in bold are the ones I would say have lived up to their rankings, maybe not top in their class, but met or exceeded the expectations when they signed.

My point is that this is such an inexact science.  Some classes were full of players that never contributed at all, while some were full of lower rated players that far exceeded their expectations, Orr, Chancellor, Bird, Fine, Wilson, etc.  Signing day is always fun, but it has always been my opinion to wait and look back at the end of their careers to see how they actually performed.  Here's to everyone in the '23 class exceeding expectations.

[GrandGreen]

I don't think it is really that meaningful a comparison.  There has been a lot of rating inflation over the years, everyone almost is now at least a 3.  However, your main point is that rankings are often wrong is very valid.  

Obvious, you should actually rate a class after all those players have use up their eligibility.  However, that is not very apparently appealing to the average fan and would take some real work. 

Rankings are basically a byproduct of what schools are thought to be recruiting a player.  The number and generally what conference the teams are in. 

None of the rating staffs spend much time on really viewing the play of the recruits and why should they?  The teams themselves for the most part do their our evaluations and they set the ranking by their interest. 

[untphd]

3 hours ago, UNTLifer said:

I decided to look back through our recruiting rankings on 247 through the years and discovered some interesting findings.  Some of our most successful players were not rated very high coming out of high school and some of our highest rated recruits have never really contributed.  Here are some that exceeded their rankings:

Craig Robertson, 2 star/.7222

Lance Dunbar, 3 star/.8274

Derek Thompson, 2 star/.7889

Mason Y'Barbo, 2 star/.7870

Zach Orr, 2 star/.7667

Will Wright, Richard Abbe, Brelan Chancellor, Derek Akunne and Cyril Lemon 2 star/.7333

Lairamie Lee and James Jones, 2 star/.7000

Jeff Wilson, 2 star/.7676

Mason Fine, 2 star/.7743

E.J. Ejiya, 2 star/.7633

Kemon Hall, not rated

Jayaire Shorter, 3 star/.8165

Deandre Torrey, 3 star/.8056

It is also interesting to note the top rated players in each class and how they panned out.  Here they are in order from 2022 - 2003: Cam Robertson, Caleb Johnson, Eric Williams, Deonte Simpson, Alex Morris, Jalen Guyton, Nic Smith, Kevin Dillman, Caleb Chumley, Chad Davis, Boone Feldt, Freddie Warner, Antonio Johnson, Jeremy Bean, Riley Dodge, Jordan Scoggins, Kelvin Drake, Willie Ransom, Jamario Thomas and Michael Pruitt.  The ones I put in bold are the ones I would say have lived up to their rankings, maybe not top in their class, but met or exceeded the expectations when they signed.

My point is that this is such an inexact science.  Some classes were full of players that never contributed at all, while some were full of lower rated players that far exceeded their expectations, Orr, Chancellor, Bird, Fine, Wilson, etc.  Signing day is always fun, but it has always been my opinion to wait and look back at the end of their careers to see how they actually performed.  Here's to everyone in the '23 class exceeding expectations.

Nice work, thanks.

[Dannymacfan]

Great info @UNTLifer

[Marty]

Kevin Dillman, I'd forgot about him. Once recruited by all the big boys as QB, even compared to Tim Tebow. Moved to TE by John Walsh at Guyer. Committed to NT as TE/Athlete and just never found a place.

[97and03]

Simpson was a good player for us until his arrest and dismissal. 

But in general, many of the top rated recruits we signed were risks, either academically, character, or out of state guys.  That's why we have missed on so many.  Hopefully the current staff can use the conference change and local connections to change this.

Edited February 4, 2023 by 97and03

[El Paso Eagle]

11 hours ago, UNTLifer said:

I decided to look back through our recruiting rankings on 247 through the years and discovered some interesting findings.  Some of our most successful players were not rated very high coming out of high school and some of our highest rated recruits have never really contributed.  Here are some that exceeded their rankings:

Craig Robertson, 2 star/.7222

Lance Dunbar, 3 star/.8274

Derek Thompson, 2 star/.7889

Mason Y'Barbo, 2 star/.7870

Zach Orr, 2 star/.7667

Will Wright, Richard Abbe, Brelan Chancellor, Derek Akunne and Cyril Lemon 2 star/.7333

Lairamie Lee and James Jones, 2 star/.7000

Jeff Wilson, 2 star/.7676

Mason Fine, 2 star/.7743

E.J. Ejiya, 2 star/.7633

Kemon Hall, not rated

Jayaire Shorter, 3 star/.8165

Deandre Torrey, 3 star/.8056

It is also interesting to note the top rated players in each class and how they panned out.  Here they are in order from 2022 - 2003: Cam Robertson, Caleb Johnson, Eric Williams, Deonte Simpson, Alex Morris, Jalen Guyton, Nic Smith, Kevin Dillman, Caleb Chumley, Chad Davis, Boone Feldt, Freddie Warner, Antonio Johnson, Jeremy Bean, Riley Dodge, Jordan Scoggins, Kelvin Drake, Willie Ransom, Jamario Thomas and Michael Pruitt.  The ones I put in bold are the ones I would say have lived up to their rankings, maybe not top in their class, but met or exceeded the expectations when they signed.

My point is that this is such an inexact science.  Some classes were full of players that never contributed at all, while some were full of lower rated players that far exceeded their expectations, Orr, Chancellor, Bird, Fine, Wilson, etc.  Signing day is always fun, but it has always been my opinion to wait and look back at the end of their careers to see how they actually performed.  Here's to everyone in the '23 class exceeding expectations.

Very nice work and informative. Just goes to show that ratings for 3 stars are best guessing in many cases.

[UNTLifer]

If you go back and look at the top recruit in each class, only about 5%-10% have really produced anything.