NIT Bracketology

[greenminer]

2 hours ago, meanrob said:

This is a fools way of looking ahead but if we go 28-6 with our only loss in the CUSA finals….then watching all these 18-13 teams get in. 🤐

 

1 hour ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Might as well scrap all the metrics at that point. Really baffles me they can pick and choose what parts of the NET to follow. A team shouldn't jump over another. No reason a team with 13 losses should get an at-large bid anyways.

Not that I disagree, but the way I see it, the committee is looking for excuses to ignore records.  Such a big part of the W-L records is conference affiliation.  It is in their interest, and I think everyone's, that the tournament selections are the AQs, followed in line by the next best teams available regardless of conference.

Record cannot be 100% fully ignored, but for the most part they have all these other metrics because they want to find ways to recognize what level of basketball is being played at each school relative to everyone else, regardless of conference affiliation.

If we want to complain about this, we need to complain about the bad basketball being played at the bottom of CUSA.  The committee sees that and that is why they don't like to look at the top teams that clobber their conference competition to the tune of 5-10 easy wins that bloat those numbers.

Edited February 20, 2023 by greenminer

[meanrob]

2 minutes ago, greenminer said:

 

Not that I disagree, but the way I see it, the committee is looking for excuses to ignore records.  Such a big part of the W-L records is conference affiliation.  It is in their interest, and I think everyone's, that the tournament selections are the AQs, followed in line by the next best teams available regardless of conference.

Record cannot be 100% fully ignored, but for the most part they have all these other metrics because they want to find ways to recognize what level of basketball is being played at each school relative to everyone else, regardless of conference affiliation.

If we want to complain about this, we need to complain about the bad basketball being played at the bottom of CUSA.  The committee sees that and that is why they don't like to look at the top teams that clobber their conference competition to the tune of 5-10 easy wins that bloat those numbers.

Tell me which mid major doesn’t have bad basketball at the bottom? 
 

Our league is pretty decent this year but like other leagues, everyone beats each other up in conference play. 
 

 

[MrAlien]

I think the final at large could come down to Utah, New Mexico, Memphis and UNT. 

[GMG_Dallas]

1 hour ago, greenminer said:

 

Not that I disagree, but the way I see it, the committee is looking for excuses to ignore records.  Such a big part of the W-L records is conference affiliation.  It is in their interest, and I think everyone's, that the tournament selections are the AQs, followed in line by the next best teams available regardless of conference.

Record cannot be 100% fully ignored, but for the most part they have all these other metrics because they want to find ways to recognize what level of basketball is being played at each school relative to everyone else, regardless of conference affiliation.

If we want to complain about this, we need to complain about the bad basketball being played at the bottom of CUSA.  The committee sees that and that is why they don't like to look at the top teams that clobber their conference competition to the tune of 5-10 easy wins that bloat those numbers.

I get the whole strength of conference deal. What bothers me is the hypocrisy in assessing bad losses. Jerry Palm of CBS has #56 USC, #51 Missouri, and #50 Pitt in his bracket. Admittedly, I don't understand why Missouri's NET rank is so low. Only thing I can think of is close wins against poorly ranked squads (200+ NET). Then, there's Pitt who has 1 Quad 3 loss and 1 Quad 4 loss. Same with USC. We have 2 Quad 3 losses and 0 Quad 4 losses yet our Quad 3s are held against us until then end. I realize we have less Quad 1 wins. We've also had less opportunities. Still, bad losses are bad losses. No matter how many good ones you think you have.

Regarding bottom of conference SOS, does it matter much if the high major schools are scheduling, and losing, tune-ups against cupcakes? USC has played 6 Quad 4 games (5-1), UNT 7 (7-0), and Pitt has played 10 (9-1). Mizzou has played 8 (8-0) so they're fine. The other 2 schools get the benefit of the doubt because they've played more Quad 1s but haven't shown any level of dominance against any particular Quad to justify so much love. They've played as many, if not more, Quad 4 cupcakes.

At the end of the day, there should be no committee that decides who's in and who's not. Want it to decide seeding? Fine. But you can't develop metrics that rank everybody and then have a committee go against the metrics because of feelings.

[CMJ]

Well, the committee has always used a variety of factors.  It's never gonna just be the NET, just like it was never just the RPI.  Quality wins, bad losses, record in your last ten games, true road wins, etc, etc have all been used.  Every year the makeup of the committee is going to put different emphasis on what they look at.

[NT80]

25 minutes ago, CMJ said:

Well, the committee has always used a variety of factors.  It's never gonna just be the NET, just like it was never just the RPI.  Quality wins, bad losses, record in your last ten games, true road wins, etc, etc have all been used.  Every year the makeup of the committee is going to put different emphasis on what they look at.

I believe there is also historical-program bias on behalf of the committee, but they will never admit it.  If it comes to one being left out between Utah, New Mexico, Memphis and UNT.....well.....

[greenminer]

5 hours ago, meanrob said:

Tell me which mid major doesn’t have bad basketball at the bottom? 
 

Our league is pretty decent this year but like other leagues, everyone beats each other up in conference play. 
 

 

I cannot name another mid major conference that doesn't, and this is a great example of why life as a Mid Major is so freaking hard.

[GMG_Dallas]

Notre Dame up 27-19 at the half against UNC. If the Notre Dame pulls this off, it may be the nail in the coffin for UNC's at large hopes.

[greenminer]

1 hour ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Notre Dame up 27-19 at the half against UNC. If the Notre Dame pulls this off, it may be the nail in the coffin for UNC's at large hopes.

UNC won

[GMG_Dallas]

8 minutes ago, greenminer said:

UNC won

I saw. We're getting no help in all these close games. I think it'll come down to their last 2 games plus ACC tournament anyways but a bad loss less than a month before selection sunday would have been nice. 

[vpackrats]

I know tonight's results may change this, but this updated NIT bracktology has us a #1 seed now.  That's pretty cool!   NIT Bracketology – The Barking Crow

[CMJ]

That would have been pretty great.  All home games till Vegas.

[UNTLifer]

Not now after losing to a terrible Charlotte team.  

[greenminer]

Y'all, Charlotte is not terrible.  The loss is frustrating as hell, but this is not a loss to a bad team.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think they're a T50 NET/KENPOM team.

[DeepGreen]

I wasn’t able to watch the game. What has happened Tylor Perry? He use to drain 3’s from all over.  Are we resting his shooting arm?

[GMG_Dallas]

10 hours ago, greenminer said:

Y'all, Charlotte is not terrible.  The loss is frustrating as hell, but this is not a loss to a bad team.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think they're a T50 NET/KENPOM team.

I don't think they're that high but they do have our conference's strongest OOC win against #24 Boise State. They're not a bad team.

[CMJ]

57 minutes ago, DeepGreen said:

I wasn’t able to watch the game. What has happened Tylor Perry? He use to drain 3’s from all over.  Are we resting his shooting arm?

Sometimes a player just has an off night.  He also committed four fouls, so foul trouble issues may have been in the back of his mind as well.

[GMG_Dallas]

1 hour ago, DeepGreen said:

I wasn’t able to watch the game. What has happened Tylor Perry? He use to drain 3’s from all over.  Are we resting his shooting arm?

They were doubling him often, even with Khalifa. Seemed their game plan was to make it as hard for him as possible to get the ball and it worked. Like @CMJsaid, he was also in foul trouble. If I recall correctly, he was subbed in at about the 12 minute mark of the second half and the Charlotte broadcast said he'd been on the bench for the previous 6 minutes. 

Edited February 24, 2023 by GMG_Dallas

[UNTLifer]

Charlotte may not be as bad as I seem to believe, but they shouldn't be within ten points of us.  Still pissed.

[greenminer]

15 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

Charlotte may not be as bad as I seem to believe, but they shouldn't be within ten points of us.  Still pissed.

I mean, on the rare occasion we beat a CUSA team by 10+ points, the second meeting with those teams is usually really close.  Look no further than UTEP and UTSA, the two bottom teams in the standings.

[UNTLifer]

36 minutes ago, greenminer said:

I mean, on the rare occasion we beat a CUSA team by 10+ points, the second meeting with those teams is usually really close.  Look no further than UTEP and UTSA, the two bottom teams in the standings.

That's on us.

[Matt from A700]

How much different would our bubble status be if we were beating these bad teams by 15-25 points, instead of 2-8?

FAU beats Rice by 40 yesterday. Our net score through 18 conference games is only +111 (6.2 more PPG in conference).

[CMJ]

15 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

That's on us.

My takeaway on it is that we're not that much "better" than anyone in the league.  We're just mentally dominant over basically everyone but FAU.

[El Paso Eagle]

1 hour ago, UNTLifer said:

Charlotte may not be as bad as I seem to believe, but they shouldn't be within ten points of us.  Still pissed.

With our style of play it's hard to win by 10 or more against most

[UNTLifer]

The difference?  Their guard, Tubby Patterson, would back his defender down into the post.  Khalifa would vacate the post and head towards the top of the key drawing Abou with him leaving the post open.  Tubby would use his wide arse to clear space and make easy shots and draw fouls.  We never adjusted.