FAU - Too Good to be a Cinderella

[Mean Green 93-98]

FAU made the front (web) page of CBS Sports.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/at-19-1-fau-is-a-stunning-college-basketball-story-and-might-be-too-good-to-be-labeled-a-cinderella-team/

 

[drex]

I repeat my prediction that FAU is not going to win the conference tournament.  They have been incredibly lucky this season and it will not last through their appearance in Frisco.

[TheColonyEagle]

I’m reminded of a saying from the great Ron Washington when the pressure starts to rise and their “booty holes puckering”

FAU’s booty holes are about to start puckering….

those shots start getting a little short….

[MrAlien]

Its good for FAU and its good for the schools leaving CUSA and joining the AAC, however I agree they have had some good luck, and in UNT's case they just beat themselves.

[GMG_Dallas]

12 hours ago, drex said:

I repeat my prediction that FAU is not going to win the conference tournament.  They have been incredibly lucky this season and it will not last through their appearance in Frisco.

They're an at large if the conference tourney is this weekend and they don't win it. No team higher than 33 in the NET has ever missed the tourney in its few years of existence. Being top 20 and predicted 9/10 in brackets means they're an at-large if they don't win the conference tourney.

[greenminer]

40 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

They're an at large if the conference tourney is this weekend and they don't win it. No team higher than 33 in the NET has ever missed the tourney in its few years of existence. Being top 20 and predicted 9/10 in brackets means they're an at-large if they don't win the conference tourney.

They are T20 today, but their NET has been falling as we continue deeper into CUSA play. I don’t know where they will be at the end of the regular season.

right now though, they have an extremely strong at-large resume. A bid, AL or AQ, is basically theirs to lose.

[MrAlien]

If they dont win the conference tournament, then whom ever they loose to will effect their NET ranking.  As it stands right now they will not play another quad 1 team, so any loss would be to a quad 2 or worse, and that will really hurt them in the NET rankings. 

[greenminer]

54 minutes ago, MrAlien said:

If they dont win the conference tournament, then whom ever they loose to will effect their NET ranking.  As it stands right now they will not play another quad 1 team, so any loss would be to a quad 2 or worse, and that will really hurt them in the NET rankings. 

They haven’t lost in a while, and their NET has still gone down, right? I think SOS plays into the NET.

have zero clue, though, how much it will drop. If they stay in the T30, that’s about as big a lock as you can ask for.

[GMG_Dallas]

1 hour ago, MrAlien said:

If they dont win the conference tournament, then whom ever they loose to will effect their NET ranking.  As it stands right now they will not play another quad 1 team, so any loss would be to a quad 2 or worse, and that will really hurt them in the NET rankings. 

Depends who they play in the conference tourney. If UNT stops losing to the Rices of the world and goes undefeated the rest of the way, we can creep back to top 50. A neutral site game against a top 50 team is a Quad 1 game so say FAU wins out until the conference tourney and loses to a top 50 UNT, it would be a Quad 1 loss. That will probably drop them 5 to 10 spots depending on how others around them do in their respective conference tourneys but they'd still be in at-large range.

Like us last year, the margin is very slim. FAU has a slightly better resume than we did last year with the Florida win. Florida has 4 Quad 1 games in a row coming up with Kansas State, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Alabama. If they can go 2-2 in that stretch, it would do wonders to validate FAU's win against them.

Margin of error is very slim but the path is there.

[golfingomez]

I think FAU has a tough matchup tonight with MTSU. assuming we don't ess the bed, i may be tuned into that game instead

[Matt from A700]

Needs to be a greater penalty for flopping, or greater recognition by the general referee population.

[MrAlien]

Any loss on their remaining schedule will boot them out of the top 30.  With strength of schedule and strength of victory factoring in its going to be hard for them to move up, they may even move down with weak victories. 

Now if FAU lost to UNT in the final of the tournament, then UNT would probably find themselves in the top 50 in NET making that a quad 1 loss for FAU which would put them right on the bubble for an at large bid.  Both teams would probably need to run the table to make that happen.    

[CMJ]

The latest from Lunardi has the Owls as a 8 seed.