FIU (12/31/22)

Side.Show.Joe · January 2, 2023

Last night we failed to cover the 15.5 point spread. A 15 point win should be a great thing, but not in the eyes of the NET. That .5, cost us 4 spots in the most important ranking for earning at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament. It's seems to be a fairly simple formula. When we beat the spread, we move up or hold our ranking. When we fail to beat the spread, we drop.

greenminer · January 2, 2023

13 minutes ago, Side.Show.Joe said:

Last night we failed to cover the 15.5 point spread. A 15 point win should be a great thing, but not in the eyes of the NET. That .5, cost us 4 spots in the most important ranking for earning at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament. It's seems to be a fairly simple formula. When we beat the spread, we move up or hold our ranking. When we fail to beat the spread, we drop.

Points differential is part of the NET, and it is capped at 10. The spread is not part of NET. Not sure what you're thinking of.

EDIT: maybe not scoring margin, either. Looks like there was a change in May 2020

Quote

With the changes announced in May 2020, the NET will no longer use winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin. The change was made after the committee consulted with Google Cloud Professional Services, which worked with the NCAA to develop the original NET.

Edited January 2, 2023 by greenminer

Side.Show.Joe · January 2, 2023

42 minutes ago, greenminer said:

Points differential is part of the NET, and it is capped at 10. The spread is not part of NET. Not sure what you're thinking of.

EDIT: maybe not scoring margin, either. Looks like there was a change in May 2020

They can officially say what they want, but I follow our performance against the spread and how we move in the net rankings, and my observations stand. Win or lose, when we beat the spread our ranking improves. When we fail to cover the spread we have fallen.

greenminer · January 2, 2023

2 hours ago, Side.Show.Joe said:

They can officially say what they want, but I follow our performance against the spread and how we move in the net rankings, and my observations stand. Win or lose, when we beat the spread our ranking improves. When we fail to cover the spread we have fallen.

"I don't care what the formula variables are, please consider what I observe". alright

I didn't catch the NET on Friday. How did the FAU loss impact our ranking?

Edited January 2, 2023 by greenminer

Side.Show.Joe · January 2, 2023

2 hours ago, greenminer said:

"I don't care what the formula variables are, please consider what I observe". alright

I didn't catch the NET on Friday. How did the FAU loss impact our ranking?

We were favored to win at home by 2.5 against FAU. Going into that game we held a NET ranking of #41. After losing the FAU game by 4, we dropped to #56. By the time we played FIU we had moved up to #50, due to other teams playing. After missing the spread by half a point against FIU, we again tumbled in the NET to where we are now at #54.

We play on the road at WKU, Jan 5th. I've not seen spread for this game posted yet. But I predict that win or lose, if we beat the spread, UNT will move up in the NET. But if we fail to cover the spread, UNT will drop again. This is the pattern I have observed. I'll post the spread and our rank heading into the game, and we will see how it pans out.

GMG_Dallas · January 2, 2023

6 hours ago, Side.Show.Joe said:

We were favored to win at home by 2.5 against FAU. Going into that game we held a NET ranking of #41. After losing the FAU game by 4, we dropped to #56. By the time we played FIU we had moved up to #50, due to other teams playing. After missing the spread by half a point against FIU, we again tumbled in the NET to where we are now at #54.

We play on the road at WKU, Jan 5th. I've not seen spread for this game posted yet. But I predict that win or lose, if we beat the spread, UNT will move up in the NET. But if we fail to cover the spread, UNT will drop again. This is the pattern I have observed. I'll post the spread and our rank heading into the game, and we will see how it pans out.

Could it be that FIU is Quad 4 and the NET places very little value on those games unless you lose? This is where conference weakness affects us. FIU win isn't quality enough to keep us from moving down when other teams are playing Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins all over their conference slate. The fact we moved up from 56 to 50 between FAU and FIU tells you we moved up because other teams also lost. We then drop down some after FIU because it's the lowest Quad win you can get.

I'm not expecting a WKU win to move us much but MTSU should be Quad 2 as long as they don't drop before we play them. A win there should push us back into the 40s.

Edited January 2, 2023 by GMG_Dallas

Side.Show.Joe · January 3, 2023

12 hours ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Could it be that FIU is Quad 4 and the NET places very little value on those games unless you lose? This is where conference weakness affects us. FIU win isn't quality enough to keep us from moving down when other teams are playing Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins all over their conference slate. The fact we moved up from 56 to 50 between FAU and FIU tells you we moved up because other teams also lost. We then drop down some after FIU because it's the lowest Quad win you can get.

I'm not expecting a WKU win to move us much but MTSU should be Quad 2 as long as they don't drop before we play them. A win there should push us back into the 40s.

Nope. UNT is currently 5-0 vs. Quad 4 teams, and we beat the spread in all of those wins, except for the FIU game. In the other 4 wins UNT moved up in the NET. Only our FIU game where we won big, but didn't cover the spread has hurt us.

GMG_Dallas · January 3, 2023

11 hours ago, Side.Show.Joe said:

Nope. UNT is currently 5-0 vs. Quad 4 teams, and we beat the spread in all of those wins, except for the FIU game. In the other 4 wins UNT moved up in the NET. Only our FIU game where we won big, but didn't cover the spread has hurt us.

Have you looked at the other teams around our ranking every single time or are you only looking at UNT? Point spread is set by Vegas and moves based on incoming bets. It has absolutely nothing to do with NET ranking which but I guess if you've set in your mind that point spread matters, I can't change your mind on that.

UAB just went up two spots yesterday without playing a game. Wonder what the point spread against "day off" was.

keith · January 3, 2023

Correlation does not equal causation.

Matt from A700 · January 3, 2023

On 1/1/2023 at 9:36 AM, UNTLifer said:

If it was the same crew that worked the FAU game then our officials shouldn’t have let them back in the building.

We may not have had a choice. The refs Thursday night probably didn't feel safe to leave lmao.

Matt from A700 · January 3, 2023

On 12/31/2022 at 4:49 PM, GMG24 said:

Ref just booted a fan lol this ain’t HS buddy… put your rabbit ears away

This guy was in @NorthTexasSportsNetwork's group.

UNTLifer · January 3, 2023

33 minutes ago, Matt from A700 said:

This guy was in @NorthTexasSportsNetwork's group.

Isn't he one of the owners of the Denton Diablos soccer team? Can't be bringing those soccer shenanigans into a CUSA basketball arena. I hate it for Damon, and that is beyond ridiculous.

Matt from A700 · January 3, 2023

57 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

Isn't he one of the owners of the Denton Diablos soccer team? Can't be bringing those soccer shenanigans into a CUSA basketball arena. I hate it for Damon, and that is beyond ridiculous.

Don't know anything about the Diablos or Damon. Too bad Saturday didn't have Thursday's crowd. Probably wasn't too difficult to stick out to the refs at Saturday's game.

Side.Show.Joe · January 5, 2023

On 1/3/2023 at 6:39 AM, GMG_Dallas said:

Have you looked at the other teams around our ranking every single time or are you only looking at UNT? Point spread is set by Vegas and moves based on incoming bets. It has absolutely nothing to do with NET ranking which but I guess if you've set in your mind that point spread matters, I can't change your mind on that.

UAB just went up two spots yesterday without playing a game. Wonder what the point spread against "day off" was.

I admitted up front that teams will rise and fall based on other teams' performance. That is to be expected. But it doesn't change the apparent predictability of how covering the spread has resulted in an improved ranking.

In the NET Rankings thread, I am going to track our ranking versus each opponent and include the spread. We will be able to track how we move in the NET based on our results against the spread.