CUSA NET & KENPOM Rankings 12/22/22

MrAlien · December 22, 2022

NET & KENPOM rankings as of 12/22/22

(Top 5)

NET KENPOM

12 FAU 39 UAB

55 UAB 40 FAU

56 UNT 58 UNT

68 Charlotte 107 Charlotte

102 Middle Tenn. 110 Middle Tenn.

Other Schools NET Rankings that might be important to UNT

74 UNC-Wilmington (Neutral-L)

111 UMASS (Neutral-W)

121 GCU (Neutral-W)

133 SJST (Neutral-W)

160 LBS (Neutral-W)

Edited December 22, 2022 by MrAlien

GMG_Dallas · December 23, 2022

We didn't go up with this win. UAB went up 8 spots with their home win against Charlotte who only dropped 1 due to UAB on the road being a Quad 1 game. The value of having several teams in the top 75 is huge.

Side note, UMass and Grand Canyon are 11 and 21 spots away from becoming Quad 2 wins for us. I think Grand Canyon can make it if they go on a run in conference play. UMass really doesn't have many opportunities for quality wins in conference play so there's very little room for error.

MrAlien · December 23, 2022

UNT up to 42 in NET rankings after last nights win

UNTLifer · December 23, 2022

Is FAU really that good? I am not denying they have a good team, but 12/13 NET? The teams they have beat have a cumulative losing record. I know they won on the road at Florida, but outside of that, what have been their significant wins that have driven that NET ranking? Their one loss is to Ole' Miss, who is 8-4, who just lost to North Alabama.

FAU's wins have come against:

2 - 7 Lynn (81 - 46)

7 - 5 Florida (76 -74)

10 - 4 Bryant (85 - 74)

5 - 8 Detroit Mercy (76 - 55)

5 - 9 Albany (73 - 56)

6 - 6 South Alabama (84 - 59)

3 - 9 Eastern Michigan (101 - 73)

10 - 3 FL Gulf Coast (85 - 53)

12 - 2 St. Thomas (97 - 74)

5 - 6 FIU (79 - 53)

7 - 6 Northern Kentucky (67 - 52)

What am I missing?

greenminer · December 23, 2022

26 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

Is FAU really that good? I am not denying they have a good team, but 12/13 NET? The teams they have beat have a cumulative losing record. I know they won on the road at Florida, but outside of that, what have been their significant wins that have driven that NET ranking? Their one loss is to Ole' Miss, who is 8-4, who just lost to North Alabama.

What am I missing?

I wonder if you're not giving KenPom (and NET?) enough credit? In these days of advanced metrics, these rankings factor in much more than just who you beat or lost to.

They can look at our games an calculate efficiencies and such, in way that can determine how you compare against anyone...not just the opponents on their schedule.

Not saying their systems are flawless, though.

2020 Sucks · December 24, 2022

3 hours ago, greenminer said:

I wonder if you're not giving KenPom (and NET?) enough credit? In these days of advanced metrics, these rankings factor in much more than just who you beat or lost to.

They can look at our games an calculate efficiencies and such, in way that can determine how you compare against anyone...not just the opponents on their schedule.

Not saying their systems are flawless, though.

What I’d say is that those systems aren’t designed to see things like a 37 point breakout by Abou. He’s had several games this season where the shots just didn’t fall, but he was still decent with 16-20 pts. If he plays like he did last night and finishes at the rim like we’ve all been wanting him to…we are probably 11-1 and in the top 20. I don’t expect him to do that the rest of the season, but I’d like to be able to come to expect 25 ppg on a regular basis. I think Germany is a decent center and Abou just took him to the woodshed. It will be fun to watch him go against Jimerson. Would love to see him gain a few pounds before that game!

GrandGreen · December 24, 2022

On 12/22/2022 at 11:26 AM, MrAlien said:

NET & KENPOM rankings as of 12/22/22

(Top 5)

NET                         KENPOM

12 FAU                  39 UAB

55 UAB                   40 FAU

56 UNT               58 UNT

68 Charlotte        107 Charlotte

102 Middle Tenn.    110 Middle Tenn.

Other Schools NET Rankings that might be important to UNT

74 UNC-Wilmington (Neutral-L)

111 UMASS (Neutral-W)

121 GCU (Neutral-W)

133 SJST (Neutral-W)

160 LBS (Neutral-W)

I don't get the FAU rankings.

GrandGreen · December 24, 2022

The problem with the computer ratings is they have to start somewhere and it is just someone's idea of the ranking of all 300 plus schools. The rankings should get better as the season progresses.

FAU's record as outlined above is not that strong, even Florida is not that strong a club.

When NT beats them next week (might as well be positive), they will drop drastically down.

MrAlien · December 24, 2022

The FAU/Florida game, if they play that game 10 times, Florida would win 9 of those.

glick1980 · December 24, 2022

15 hours ago, GrandGreen said:

The problem with the computer ratings is they have to start somewhere and it is just someone's idea of the ranking of all 300 plus schools. The rankings should get better as the season progresses.

FAU's record as outlined above is not that strong, even Florida is not that strong a club.

When NT beats them next week (might as well be positive), they will drop drastically down.

Unless we win massively, I don’t think they would drop drastically. It would be a quad 1 loss for them. I do think we could go up quite a bit because it would be a quad one win for us assuming the didn’t drop past 30 in the NET.

GMG_Dallas · December 24, 2022

They won't drop much regardless of how bad UNT beats FAU (if we win) and same if we lose.

Y'all, FAU being ranked 12th is great for us as a conference. Any loss to them barely affects us. If they lose to us on the road, it barely affects them. Win-win for the conference. Having several Quad 1 games (against top 75 for road games, top 30 for home) is how you keep a high ranking as long as you handle the quad 3s and 4s. Who cares if they're worthy of being ranked 12th. It helps us.

MrAlien · December 24, 2022

FAU might be 12th in NET, but they are 29th in the RPI, and 40th in Kenpom. UNT is actually 27th in the RPI, while 54th in Kenpom. None of the other analytic metrics as high as they are in the NET, So I think FAU would drop significantly in the NET if the loose to UNT.

GMG_Dallas · December 24, 2022

1 hour ago, MrAlien said:

FAU might be 12th in NET, but they are 29th in the RPI, and 40th in Kenpom. UNT is actually 27th in the RPI, while 54th in Kenpom. None of the other analytic metrics as high as they are in the NET, So I think FAU would drop significantly in the NET if the loose to UNT.

NCAA Evaluation Tool is all that's used by the NCAA for tournament evaluation. It replaced the RPI and does not take RPI or Kenpom into account. The NET is all we should be worried about come March.

CMJ · December 25, 2022

Sure, but I think using all the various metrics is useful to see where we stand as well. Maybe average them all together. Even if it's the one the NCAA committee looks at, using just one might not really reflect the quality of everyone.

MrAlien · December 26, 2022

On 12/24/2022 at 3:17 PM, GMG_Dallas said:

NCAA Evaluation Tool is all that's used by the NCAA for tournament evaluation. It replaced the RPI and does not take RPI or Kenpom into account. The NET is all we should be worried about come March.

I know that they say that, but every year there are 5-6 schools sitting pretty in the NET that dont make the tournament. As for FAU, the Florida game makes them look better then they really are, and that is reflected in other metrics. They might be sitting at 13 in the NET, but they are not in any top 25 poll, and if the NCAA selection was today I wouldnt bet on an at large bid for UAB.

GMG_Dallas · December 26, 2022

3 hours ago, MrAlien said:

I know that they say that, but every year there are 5-6 schools sitting pretty in the NET that dont make the tournament. As for FAU, the Florida game makes them look better then they really are, and that is reflected in other metrics. They might be sitting at 13 in the NET, but they are not in any top 25 poll, and if the NCAA selection was today I wouldnt bet on an at large bid for UAB.

AP poll is a popularity contest. You're probably right that UAB may not get an at-large as things stand. I think we'd have the best bet based on strength of schedule. Ours this year is better than UAB and FAU and is better than Wyoming, Colorado State, and Boise State last year who all made the tourney. Our non-conference SOS was good last year but our overall SOS was average. Factor in we were 5-3 in non-conference and that non-conference SOS became irrelevant.

Just have to take care of business but there's definitely an avenue for CUSA getting 2 bids. Lots of basketball left. I'd rather a different fanbase worry about that while our guys snatch the AQ.

Edited December 26, 2022 by GMG_Dallas

MrAlien · December 26, 2022

The interesting thing AP & Coaches polls is that its not just the top 25, but the "also received votes" those are the schools that will round out any at large selections, so far this year FAU and UAB have received some votes.

As for CUSA getting an at large bid, I am guessing there will be between 4-5 at large spots between AAC, WCC, MW, and CUSA. In theory they should take the next best 4-5 schools in the NET. Right now the next best in NET from those conferences are as follows: 16-St Mary's, 22-Utah st. 38-San Diego st, 41-UNT, 45-Memphis, 51-UNLV, 52-UAB.

GMG_Dallas · December 27, 2022

I'd be surprised if the MW got more than 1 at-large this year considering their 2 bids went 0-2 in 2019, 2 bids went 0-2 in 2021, and their 4 bids went 0-4 this past tourney. Guess we'll see if they're still the darlings despite no tournament wins since 2018. I realize it's about this season's performance but these are still humans making the decisions.

Edited December 27, 2022 by GMG_Dallas

MrAlien · December 27, 2022

For some reason the committee really likes the MW, almost every backetologist has them at 3 schools getting selected at this point, some even have UNLV getting selected. Memphis also seems to be in every predicted bracket.