2023 - Fourth nonconference game

[NorthTexasSportsNetwork]

53 minutes ago, Matt from A700 said:

Went back to the fbschedules website and realized our current games are scheduled for 9/2, 9/16, and 9/30, leaving two gaps in September... I don't remember it originally being like this. Meaning we will either have a bye or a conference game before we finish our nonconference slate. OR, that opens up a few more nonconference opponents...

From my list in the original post:

Other FBS teams with nonconference voids, but not available 9/9
Baylor (2H) available 9/23
Ohio (2H, 1A) available 9/23
Pitt (1H, 2A) four nonconference games now
Southern Miss (1H, 2A) available 9/23
Utah State (1H, 2A) four nonconference games now

Get USM for away or Baylor for home and we are rolling! That would be massive.

[NorthTexasSportsNetwork]

3 minutes ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

Good catch on the 9/23 opening. I don't remember that being the case either when we looked last month. 

I can't see Baylor being an option since they're already on the upcoming schedule. I figure the most likely scenario for 9/23 is traveling to Southern Miss, followed by hosting Ohio for a 3rd OOC home game. 

Traveling to USM would make the most sense and make it where we play 6 home/6 away.

They are an improving team, but what about that first open date? Would it be an early conference game? Having a BYE that early would SUCK

[El Paso Eagle]

1 minute ago, NorthTexasSportsNetwork said:

Traveling to USM would make the most sense and make it where we play 6 home/6 away.

They are an improving team, but what about that first open date? Would it be an early conference game? Having a BYE that early would SUCK

Would probably be able to get the conference to work with us on moving a game if needed.

[zenhuddy]

Coastal makes a good story line i.e. one school that has risen a lot in the last few years playing a program chasing the same goals - National Recognition.  JMO

[UNTcrazy727]

5 minutes ago, NorthTexasSportsNetwork said:

Traveling to USM would make the most sense and make it where we play 6 home/6 away.

They are an improving team, but what about that first open date? Would it be an early conference game? Having a BYE that early would SUCK

Just checked the OOC schedule for our 2023 AAC opponent's and no one has an opening for 9/9. I figure that locks us into 9/9 for our last OOC game. And the only AAC opponents that are open on 9/23 are Navy and Tulane. So it appears we will be on the road for our first AAC matchup. 

[Matt from A700]

19 minutes ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

Just checked the OOC schedule for our 2023 AAC opponent's and no one has an opening for 9/9. I figure that locks us into 9/9 for our last OOC game. And the only AAC opponents that are open on 9/23 are Navy and Tulane. So it appears we will be on the road for our first AAC matchup. 

Then I will still take a road game at Georgia Tech on 9/9 or a bye if we get to play Baylor on 9/23. Southern Miss would give everyone an even number of home/away games.

[wardly]

In theory only one win against 1AA opponents counts towards the 6 needed to become bowl eligible . In practice we have gone to about 3 or 4 bowl games having a losing record.

[tmjerm]

We are gonna need to win the kinds of games we couldnt this year (UTSA, Memphis, UNLV) to get bowl eligible assuming relative talent level is similar (however we know we will have a new QB and likely entirely new identity)...but just off of talent feel, here's what I see.  Seems like we'd need to snag one from UAB, Memphis, or UTSA or win the unscheduled OOC game.   That said, every single one of these games is very much winnable. 

Cal - L

@ La Tech - W

ACU - W

UTSA - L

@ Tulsa - Toss Up

Memphis - L

@SMU - L

UAB - L

@Tulane - L

Temple - W

@ Navy - Toss Up

[SilverEagle]

On 11/10/2022 at 6:34 AM, Cr1028 said:

Give me Baylor in a nationally televised week zero matchup.

Failing that, I vote for Harvard.

[NTSU52]

On 11/10/2022 at 8:42 AM, UNTcrazy727 said:

Nice research! As much as I want Georgia Tech, I think New Mexico State is the most likely option. They only have 2 home games scheduled next year with 9/9 still open. And they have plenty of openings in the coming years for a return trip to Denton. 

Good catch with Jacksonville State. That's certainly a possibility. 

With ACU already on the schedule, another FCS opponent is off the table. You can only count 1 win vs FCS towards bowl eligibility. 

I would absolutely support New Mexico State. We played some great games against them in the early Sun Belt days. Would love to host them again. 

Edited December 15, 2022 by NTSU52

[Matt from A700]

2 hours ago, tmjerm said:

We are gonna need to win the kinds of games we couldnt this year (UTSA, Memphis, UNLV) to get bowl eligible assuming relative talent level is similar (however we know we will have a new QB and likely entirely new identity)...but just off of talent feel, here's what I see.  Seems like we'd need to snag one from UAB, Memphis, or UTSA or win the unscheduled OOC game.   That said, every single one of these games is very much winnable. 

Cal - L

@ La Tech - W

ACU - W

UTSA - L

@ Tulsa - Toss Up

Memphis - L

@SMU - L

UAB - L

@Tulane - L

Temple - W

@ Navy - Toss Up

With a good QB and rejuvenated team/coaching staff/fanbase I would argue that failing to gain bowl eligibility would be a disappointment. Having UAB, Memphis, and UTSA all at home will help. All games this year were winnable at some point except for SMU.

Side note, I don't know about everyone else, but I like how all of our annual foes in the AAC won't skip a beat with the home/away game rotation. SMU on the road, UAB, UTSA, Memphis at home.

[tmjerm]

29 minutes ago, Matt from A700 said:

With a good QB and rejuvenated team/coaching staff/fanbase I would argue that failing to gain bowl eligibility would be a disappointment. Having UAB, Memphis, and UTSA all at home will help. All games this year were winnable at some point except for SMU.

Side note, I don't know about everyone else, but I like how all of our annual foes in the AAC won't skip a beat with the home/away game rotation. SMU on the road, UAB, UTSA, Memphis at home.

Wholeheartedly agree.  Just saying, QB and defensive improvement are paramount with that schedule to improve upon what that would look like with this year's team.

[El Paso Eagle]

Not long ago we had many predicting a total disaster for next year. Now a short time later, without knowing who will leave, or who will stay or be signed we have people talking about 6-wins minimum. Don't get me wrong, I hope we win at least 6, but @tmjerm predictions look pretty good. We could win 2-4 or maybe 6

 

• Cal - Toss Up - First game under Morris. Morris should be familiar with them.  
• @ La Tech - Win (They will be improved and want to go after a team that left their conf.)
• ACU - Win
• Mystery Team - Good question - Personally I hope we find a very winnable game
• UTSA - Loss 
• @ Tulsa - Toss Up
• Memphis - Toss Up
• @SMU - Loss
• UAB - Win
• @Tulane - Loss
• Temple - Win
• @ Navy - Toss Up

[GMG_Dallas]

Y'all call me crazy but I'm thinking 8-4 next season pending who leaves in the portal. If nobody significant leaves, it'll be a good first year in the AAC. SL left the cupboard full. There's a lot of talent here on both sides of the ball and 7-6 is an indictment on SL never quite figuring out how to win. Also an indictment on Aune who, while a talented QB, does not play winning football. The 

Cal - Win, I believe their QB is a 5th year senior. He was new to Cal this year and was decent. They'll  be breaking in a new QB as well to start off the season on the road. Huge opportunity for us, here.

@ La Tech - Win 

ACU - Win

UTSA - Toss up, should have won the first game this year. Loaded with seniors on both sides of the ball. Next year's roster should look very different but I'm not familiar with how many of their seniors get a 5th year due to covid and who doesn't. Calling a toss up for that reason.

@ Tulsa - win

Memphis - loss, underachieving this year. Expect a bounce back season next year

@SMU - Loss, I think we'll see a close game.

UAB - Win, huge letdown this year but I believe we had the better team even though the staff pooped their pants.

@Tulane - loss

Temple - Win

@ Navy - Win, new HC incoming

7-3 on here since there's an unknown game and UTSA is a toss up IMO. I'll probably look silly in a year but this is how I'm feeling based on the talent this roster currently has.

[UNTcrazy727]

2 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Y'all call me crazy but I'm thinking 8-4 next season pending who leaves in the portal. If nobody significant leaves, it'll be a good first year in the AAC. SL left the cupboard full. There's a lot of talent here on both sides of the ball and 7-6 is an indictment on SL never quite figuring out how to win. Also an indictment on Aune who, while a talented QB, does not play winning football. The 

Cal - Win, I believe their QB is a 5th year senior. He was new to Cal this year and was decent. They'll  be breaking in a new QB as well to start off the season on the road. Huge opportunity for us, here.

@ La Tech - Win 

ACU - Win

UTSA - Toss up, should have won the first game this year. Loaded with seniors on both sides of the ball. Next year's roster should look very different but I'm not familiar with how many of their seniors get a 5th year due to covid and who doesn't. Calling a toss up for that reason.

@ Tulsa - win

Memphis - loss, underachieving this year. Expect a bounce back season next year

@SMU - Loss, I think we'll see a close game.

UAB - Win, huge letdown this year but I believe we had the better team even though the staff pooped their pants.

@Tulane - loss

Temple - Win

@ Navy - Win, new HC incoming

7-3 on here since there's an unknown game and UTSA is a toss up IMO. I'll probably look silly in a year but this is how I'm feeling based on the talent this roster currently has.

I believe UTSA is bringing back 9-10 starters on offense from the Championship game. They're going to be good next year. If I'm being honest, I'm counting that as a loss. 2024 is when they'll probably regress. 

Right now, I'd break up the games like this:

Likely wins: La Tech, ACU, Temple, Navy

Toss ups: Cal, Tulsa, Memphis, UAB

Likely losses: UTSA, SMU, Tulane

[Matt from A700]

37 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Y'all call me crazy but I'm thinking 8-4 next season pending who leaves in the portal. If nobody significant leaves, it'll be a good first year in the AAC. SL left the cupboard full. There's a lot of talent here on both sides of the ball and 7-6 is an indictment on SL never quite figuring out how to win. Also an indictment on Aune who, while a talented QB, does not play winning football. The 

Cal - Win, I believe their QB is a 5th year senior. He was new to Cal this year and was decent. They'll  be breaking in a new QB as well to start off the season on the road. Huge opportunity for us, here.

@ La Tech - Win 

ACU - Win

UTSA - Toss up, should have won the first game this year. Loaded with seniors on both sides of the ball. Next year's roster should look very different but I'm not familiar with how many of their seniors get a 5th year due to covid and who doesn't. Calling a toss up for that reason.

@ Tulsa - win

Memphis - loss, underachieving this year. Expect a bounce back season next year

@SMU - Loss, I think we'll see a close game.

UAB - Win, huge letdown this year but I believe we had the better team even though the staff pooped their pants.

@Tulane - loss

Temple - Win

@ Navy - Win, new HC incoming

7-3 on here since there's an unknown game and UTSA is a toss up IMO. I'll probably look silly in a year but this is how I'm feeling based on the talent this roster currently has.

These are my feelings exactly. I really hope we get our nonconference games out the way before AAC play because right now I see three good opportunities to win. Adding a Southern Miss or FIU would give us a great chance for 4-0 before heading into the new conference.

[UNTLifer]

36 minutes ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

I believe UTSA is bringing back 9-10 starters on offense from the Championship game. They're going to be good next year. If I'm being honest, I'm counting that as a loss. 2024 is when they'll probably regress. 

 

It will be interesting to see.  On offense, based off of their two deep, they will lose all but their LT and TE.  You can add QB in there as Harris is said to be returning at this point.

Defense they lose the MLB, SLB, both CB's and both S's.

[rws69]

6 hours ago, tmjerm said:

We are gonna need to win the kinds of games we couldnt this year (UTSA, Memphis, UNLV) to get bowl eligible assuming relative talent level is similar (however we know we will have a new QB and likely entirely new identity)...but just off of talent feel, here's what I see.  Seems like we'd need to snag one from UAB, Memphis, or UTSA or win the unscheduled OOC game.   That said, every single one of these games is very much winnable. 

Cal - L

@ La Tech - W

ACU - W

UTSA - L

@ Tulsa - Toss Up

Memphis - L

@SMU - L

UAB - L

@Tulane - L

Temple - W

@ Navy - Toss Up

I think Cal is winnable. They went 4-8 and Eric Morris beat them 28-9.

We played well at Memphis this season and lost due to turnovers. 

Catching UTSA at home will help.

[GMG_Dallas]

2 hours ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

I believe UTSA is bringing back 9-10 starters on offense from the Championship game. They're going to be good next year. If I'm being honest, I'm counting that as a loss. 2024 is when they'll probably regress. 

Right now, I'd break up the games like this:

Likely wins: La Tech, ACU, Temple, Navy

Toss ups: Cal, Tulsa, Memphis, UAB

Likely losses: UTSA, SMU, Tulane

Agree on the UTSA stance. Frank Harris getting a 6th season has benefited them tremendously in this conference transition. I'm curious as to whether or not he'll actually stay for next year. I know he has said he would but if he gets word NFL teams are seriously interested, he'd be wrong not to declare.

What makes you view Tulsa as a toss up? They're also breaking in a new HC and I believe they'll also be needing a new QB for next year.

[Matt from A700]

On 11/9/2022 at 11:03 PM, Matt from A700 said:

Separate post for my brief thoughts:

• I feel like FIU would be most likely.

At almost 27 years of age, I understand I don't have the knowledge, experience, insight, nor logic that most of the members on this board have.

That being said, it's nice to win one.

 

[drex]

I've heard of Harvard.

[Glory to the Green]

48 minutes ago, drex said:

I've heard of Harvard.

Ah, yes. Harvard. The UNT of the East.

[UNTcrazy727]

On 12/15/2022 at 2:56 PM, UNTcrazy727 said:

I believe UTSA is bringing back 9-10 starters on offense from the Championship game. They're going to be good next year. If I'm being honest, I'm counting that as a loss. 2024 is when they'll probably regress. 

Right now, I'd break up the games like this:

Likely wins: La Tech, ACU, Temple, Navy

Toss ups: Cal, Tulsa, Memphis, UAB

Likely losses: UTSA, SMU, Tulane

Updated with addition of FIU:

Likely wins: La Tech, ACU, Temple, Navy, FIU

Toss ups: Cal, Tulsa, Memphis, UAB

Likely losses: UTSA, SMU, Tulane

Thanks to our very easy OOC schedule, I can see us winning 8 games next year. 

[MeanGreenTexan]

59 minutes ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

Updated with addition of FIU:

Likely wins: La Tech, ACU, Temple, Navy, FIU

Toss ups: Cal, Tulsa, Memphis, UAB

Likely losses: UTSA, SMU, Tulane

Thanks to our very easy OOC schedule, I can see us winning 8 games next year. 

Split the tossups, and 7 wins is the floor, right?   Find the right QB, and get some defensive ballers to buy-in... and NT can jump up and bite some of those "Likely Losses" too.