Taking the Temperature of the Coaches in the American Athletic Conference

[Coach Andy Mac]

Two concurrent storylines in college athletics – the long-debated and finally approved expansion of the College Football Playoff and the every-decade shift in conference affiliation – are about to collide strangely: With the expansion of the game’s postseason field from four teams to 12 starting in 2026 (or earlier), programs where it was previously considered impossible to create a national title shot suddenly have a puncher’s chance of at least seeing the championship structure.

North Texas: We’ve previously discussed the long marriage between the Mean Green and Seth Littrell wrapping up at the end of this season in as respectable a fashion as possible, and that still holds – unless UNT finishes its final three games against FIU, UAB, and Rice with a sweep. Losing to UTSA hurt Littrell, but this past weekend’s blowout of Western Kentucky was a huge mark in his favor.

LINK:  https://athlonsports.com/college-football/college-football-hot-seat-watch-taking-temperature-coaches-in-american-athletic-conference

Edited November 1, 2022 by Coach Andy Mac

[Pellom]

Interesting wording in the report. Godfrey is a great source for this stuff. My educated guess is he has sources inside the athletic department and is not getting his info from the coaching staff. 
 

I’m definitely split on this: I think even if we lose to UAB, Seth probably deserves an extension at 7-5 (assuming we are still playing in the championship game). However, I’m not sure he would take it if another opportunity presented itself. He’s already been linked to Colorado. I could see Arizona State being in play as well: he has coached in the state before and I think it’s safe to say they are going to have a hard time hiring anyone of note due to the impending NCAA sanctions. Another remote possibility is Tulsa if they fire their coach. 

[PlummMeanGreen]

Most all on GMG have set their own criteria for SL to be able to stay, but I still wonder what Smatresk, WBaker & the BOR’s is? If he stays he has to have a (minimum) 5 year extension because recruiting is fixen ‘ to get nasty in the American.  If he only received a 2 year contract extension, UNT would get hammered in recruiting the next 2 years & beyond. 

[MeanGreenGlory]

"Leaders at these schools are paying attention, and as three major powers, including last year’s playoff entrant Cincinnati, are departing, the new-look AAC will be a land rush to see who will replace the Bearcats, UCF, and Houston as that perennial G5 giant."

This is one of the main reasons I think Wren needs to part ways with Seth after the season no matter what. We've been destroyed by AAC level competition throughout Seth's seven years here (that's nearly two full four-year recruiting cycles to address talent and scheme issues!). Based on his body of work at UNT, it's evident he's not the person to take us to the next level. It doesn't mean he's a bad person. It doesn't mean he's an awful coach. It doesn't mean I don't want the best for him. It doesn't mean he can't or won't be more successful elsewhere...

But after seven years of evidence, it's clear that Seth isn't able to get UNT to an AAC championship level (he hasn't even gotten us to a CUSA championship level).

There are good, experienced head coaching candidates on the market right now who have experience coaching at a higher level, could hit the portal immediately, and build on the momentum of our entry into the AAC to get us to AAC championship quality quickly.

Just imagine if the college football playoff expands sooner than 2026 and the new staff has had a couple years to upgrade our roster and implement their system. There's a legitimate possibility for UNT to become the perennial G5 giant and earn early championship playoff bids within the next few years.

This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity which is why I think it's so crucial to go for it. We need to take the shot with the goal to become the G5 giant that earns the first few championship playoff bids. Achieving that is attainable with our resources, and it would change the course of the program forever.

[greenminer]

5 minutes ago, MeanGreenGlory said:

We've been destroyed by AAC level competition throughout Seth's seven years here (that's nearly two full four-year recruiting cycles to address talent and scheme issues!).

Do you think our loss to Memphis was a destruction?

[untjim1995]

4 minutes ago, greenminer said:

Do you think our loss to Memphis was a destruction?

Hey, I noticed you never answered my post to you yesterday...any thoughts? 

[cousin oliver]

Is Seth deserving of such a great opportunity?  I would imagine we have tons of interest if this job opens up.

[MeanGreenGlory]

I want to put extra emphasis on this...

Assuming the college playoff system goes through as it's currently proposed, we are in a better position to earn a college football championship playoff spot than UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, and many P5 schools.

Think about that.

If we can get our program to the point where we dominate the AAC and win the championship (which is a reasonable goal with our resources), we have a high likelihood of being one of the highest ranked conference champions and secure a playoff bid.

UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati decreased their chances to earn a playoff bid. We just increased ours.

IF we can earn playoff bids early in the life of the expanded playoff system, we can use that to significantly increase the level of talent we recruit. "If you come to UNT, we believe there's a good chance you'll compete for a national championship. Do you want to be buried in P5 conference standings, or do you want to compete for a national championship?"

Again, this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. 

UNT leadership can't sit on their hands and hope Seth pulls out some new magic trick in year eight that he hasn't pulled out in the first seven years.

Edited November 1, 2022 by MeanGreenGlory

[GrandGreen]

1 hour ago, PlummMeanGreen said:

Most all on GMG have set their own criteria for SL to be able to stay, but I still wonder what Smatresk, WBaker & the BOR’s is? If he stays he has to have a (minimum) 5 year extension because recruiting is fixen ‘ to get nasty in the American.  If he only received a 2 year contract extension, UNT would get hammered in recruiting the next 2 years & beyond. 

Hammered for not having over a 2 year contract.  No, it might make a small difference; but NT is not getting the athletes of that level anyway.  NIL is a far bigger factor than who the coach is. 

My guess, and I want Littrell to earn an extension, is that a new coach would likely build excitement and improve recruiting.  

There is no way in heck, that NT should consider giving any football head coach a contract over 3 years.  Exception being a name coach that demands a long term contract and I would be careful even doing that. 

[MeanGreenGlory]

39 minutes ago, greenminer said:

Do you think our loss to Memphis was a destruction?

Using a single example out of a much larger body of work is not a logical way to rationalize something. 

Here's Seth's non-conference history at UNT excluding FCS teams:

Year	Date	Opponent	Result
2016	September 3	SMU*	L 21–34
2016	September 17	at No. 23 Florida*	L 0–32
2016	October 22	at Army*	W 35–18
2016	December 27	vs. Army*	L 31–38 OT
2017	September 9	at SMU*	L 32–54
2017	September 16	at Iowa*	L 14–31
2017	November 18	Army*	W 52–49
2017	December 16	vs. Troy*	L 30–50
2018	September 1	SMU*	W 46–23
2018	September 15	at Arkansas*	W 44–17
2018	September 22	at Liberty*	W 47–7
2018	December 15	vs. Utah State*	L 13–52
2019	September 7	at SMU*	L 27–49
2019	September 14	at California*	L 17–23
2019	September 28	Houston*	L 25–46
2020	September 19	SMU*	L 35–65
2020	December 21	vs. Appalachian State*	L 28–56
2021	September 11	at SMU*	L 12–35
2021	October 9	at Missouri*	L 35–48
2021	October 23	Liberty*	L 26–35
2021	December 23	vs. Miami (OH)*	L 14–27
2022	September 3	SMU*	L 10–48
2022	September 17	at UNLV*	L 27–58
2022	September 24	at Memphis*	L 34–44

To save you from counting, that's a 5-18 record—a winning percentage of 21.74%. Not good.

And before you say, "Oh, well there are some good teams in there like Florida! We can't reasonably expect to beat Florida!" Okay, I can agree with you on that. But 2016 Florida is really the only team. Everyone else was beatable.

And before you say, "Oh, well some of those teams aren't in the AAC so it's not apples to apples." Okay, let's look at just the teams from the AAC during the seven seasons:

Year	Date	Opponent	Result
2016	September 3	SMU*	L 21–34
2017	September 9	at SMU*	L 32–54
2018	September 1	SMU*	W 46–23
2019	September 7	at SMU*	L 27–49
2019	September 28	Houston*	L 25–46
2020	September 19	SMU*	L 35–65
2021	September 11	at SMU*	L 12–35
2022	September 3	SMU*	L 10–48
2022	September 24	at Memphis*	L 34–44

That's a 1-8 record against AAC teams during his tenure—a winning percentage of just 11.11%.

I appreciate Seth for the positive things he has done at UNT, but he's not the guy who will lead us to AAC championships and playoff bids.

Edited November 1, 2022 by MeanGreenGlory

[El Paso Eagle]

2 hours ago, PlummMeanGreen said:

Most all on GMG have set their own criteria for SL to be able to stay, but I still wonder what Smatresk, WBaker & the BOR’s is? If he stays he has to have a (minimum) 5 year extension because recruiting is fixen ‘ to get nasty in the American.  If he only received a 2 year contract extension, UNT would get hammered in recruiting the next 2 years & beyond. 

A 5 year extension? Please tell me this was a mistype. 

[meanJewGreen]

25 minutes ago, MeanGreenGlory said:

Using a single example out of a much larger body of work is not a logical way to rationalize something. 

Here's Seth's non-conference history at UNT excluding FCS teams:

Year	Date	Opponent	Result
2016	September 3	SMU*	L 21–34
2016	September 17	at No. 23 Florida*	L 0–32
2016	October 22	at Army*	W 35–18
2016	December 27	vs. Army*	L 31–38 OT
2017	September 9	at SMU*	L 32–54
2017	September 16	at Iowa*	L 14–31
2017	November 18	Army*	W 52–49
2017	December 16	vs. Troy*	L 30–50
2018	September 1	SMU*	W 46–23
2018	September 15	at Arkansas*	W 44–17
2018	September 22	at Liberty*	W 47–7
2018	December 15	vs. Utah State*	L 13–52
2019	September 7	at SMU*	L 27–49
2019	September 14	at California*	L 17–23
2019	September 28	Houston*	L 25–46
2020	September 19	SMU*	L 35–65
2020	December 21	vs. Appalachian State*	L 28–56
2021	September 11	at SMU*	L 12–35
2021	October 9	at Missouri*	L 35–48
2021	October 23	Liberty*	L 26–35
2021	December 23	vs. Miami (OH)*	L 14–27
2022	September 3	SMU*	L 10–48
2022	September 17	at UNLV*	L 27–58
2022	September 24	at Memphis*	L 34–44

To save you from counting, that's a 5-18 record—a winning percentage of 21.74%. Not good.

And before you say, "Oh, well there are some good teams in there like Florida! We can't reasonably expect to beat Florida!" Okay, I can agree with you on that. But 2016 Florida is really the only team. Everyone else was beatable.

And before you say, "Oh, well some of those teams aren't in the AAC so it's not apples to apples." Okay, let's look at just the teams from the AAC during the seven seasons:

Year	Date	Opponent	Result
2016	September 3	SMU*	L 21–34
2017	September 9	at SMU*	L 32–54
2018	September 1	SMU*	W 46–23
2019	September 7	at SMU*	L 27–49
2019	September 28	Houston*	L 25–46
2020	September 19	SMU*	L 35–65
2021	September 11	at SMU*	L 12–35
2022	September 3	SMU*	L 10–48
2022	September 24	at Memphis*	L 34–44

That's a 1-8 record against AAC teams during his tenure—a winning percentage of just 11.11%.

I appreciate Seth for the positive things he has done at UNT, but he's not the guy who will lead us to AAC championships and playoff bids.

I'm frustrated about the losses but I'm more frustrated is that in many of them, especially in recent years, we haven't been competitive. 

[greenminer]

8 hours ago, MeanGreenGlory said:

Using a single example out of a much larger body of work is not a logical way to rationalize something. 

Absolutely, but the hyperbole around here is ridiculous.

I think there are two views/sides solidifying on this board regarding SL:

1) People who recognize the improved team and are willing to see how it unfolds...including into next year as long as it continues.

2) People who recognize the improved team, and will not budge.  The last 7 years should mean he gets fired no matter what.  Or he has to win the conference/bowl game to even get consideration for 2023.

In your view, a close game to Memphis does not negate his overall record against the AAC.  Which I'm cool with.  But I'm also curious to see how the rest of the season unfolds.  You? I'm not so sure if you'd care.

[NT93]

8 hours ago, meanJewGreen said:

I'm frustrated about the losses but I'm more frustrated is that in many of them, especially in recent years, we haven't been competitive. 

This is exactly how I feel.  Very few games on that list where the margin is less than 20.

[untjim1995]

26 minutes ago, greenminer said:

Absolutely, but the hyperbole around here is ridiculous.

I think there are two views/sides solidifying on this board regarding SL:

1) People who recognize the improved team and are willing to see how it unfolds...including into next year as long as it continues.

2) People who recognize the improved team, and will not budge.  The last 7 years should mean he gets fired no matter what.  Or he has to win the conference/bowl game to even get consideration for 2023.

In your view, a close game to Memphis does not negate his overall record against the AAC.  Which I'm cool with.  But I'm also curious to see how the rest of the season unfolds.  You? I'm not so sure if you'd care.

What are your views on this?

[TIgreen01]

10 hours ago, MeanGreenGlory said:

I want to put extra emphasis on this...

Assuming the college playoff system goes through as it's currently proposed, we are in a better position to earn a college football championship playoff spot than UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, and many P5 schools.

Think about that.

If we can get our program to the point where we dominate the AAC and win the championship (which is a reasonable goal with our resources), we have a high likelihood of being one of the highest ranked conference champions and secure a playoff bid.

UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati decreased their chances to earn a playoff bid. We just increased ours.

IF we can earn playoff bids early in the life of the expanded playoff system, we can use that to significantly increase the level of talent we recruit. "If you come to UNT, we believe there's a good chance you'll compete for a national championship. Do you want to be buried in P5 conference standings, or do you want to compete for a national championship?"

Again, this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. 

UNT leadership can't sit on their hands and hope Seth pulls out some new magic trick in year eight that he hasn't pulled out in the first seven years.

Pretty darn interesting point you’re making.  I hadn’t thought of it this way, but you are exactly right about the opportunity the playoff is about to create.  

[NorthTexasWeLove]

13 hours ago, PlummMeanGreen said:

Most all on GMG have set their own criteria for SL to be able to stay, but I still wonder what Smatresk, WBaker & the BOR’s is? If he stays he has to have a (minimum) 5 year extension because recruiting is fixen ‘ to get nasty in the American.  If he only received a 2 year contract extension, UNT would get hammered in recruiting the next 2 years & beyond. 

5 years? 

[Mike Jackson]

20 hours ago, GrandGreen said:

Hammered for not having over a 2 year contract.  No, it might make a small difference; but NT is not getting the athletes of that level anyway.  NIL is a far bigger factor than who the coach is. 

Absolutely agree but a new coach would need 5 year contract at least.  A two year extension for Seth put Seth under contract for 3.    More than sufficient for a tenured coach you aren't absolutely in love with and your program is not the best brand in your conference.  The level of athletes we want and can get only have DREAMS of going to the NFL after their 4th year.   Only 5 stars really think that their true freshmen year production will get them on the path of being draft after their JR year.  You want a stable coaching staff during that time.  My main conditions for extension of Seth's time is a conference championship, or a very close loss to UTSA with a balance offense and a defense that hold them under their season average in points again, with a bowl win and lastly a quality QB coach hire.  

Edited November 2, 2022 by Mike Jackson

[MeanGreenTexan]

8 minutes ago, Mike Jackson said:

Absolutely agree but a new coach would need 5 year contract at least.  A two year extension for Seth put Seth under contract for 3.    More than sufficient for a tenured coach you aren't absolutely in love with and your program is not the best brand in your conference.  The level of athletes we want and can get only have DREAMS of going to the NFL after their 4th year.   Only 5 stars really think that their true freshmen year production will get them on the path of being draft after their JR year.  You want a stable coaching staff during that time.  My main conditions for extension of Seth's time is a conference championship, or a very close loss to UTSA with a balance offense and a defense that hold them under their season average in points again, with a bowl win and lastly a quality QB coach hire.  

So you're saying if NT loses the C-USA championship game "close" to UTSA, you're fully on board with a 5 year extension??

We don't have room to hire a "QB coach" without losing Bloesch or Clements.  It's not happening.

Wouldn't it make more sense in the scenario above to say, "Here's 2 more years, prove to us you can do this in the AAC without Bennett (because he's re-retiring after this year), and maybe without Bloesch (who could easily be plucked by a struggling P5 offense)."?   
Then, if he happens to finish as a contender, including a win VS SMU, offer the 5-year extension.  He'll have earned it, and it would mean he's actually "turned it around".   
But if he struggles to get to 4 wins in the AAC (a real possibility), your buyout is minimal and Wren can go get a quality coach.

[Pellom]

20 hours ago, MeanGreenGlory said:

Using a single example out of a much larger body of work is not a logical way to rationalize something. 

Here's Seth's non-conference history at UNT excluding FCS teams:

Year	Date	Opponent	Result
2016	September 3	SMU*	L 21–34
2016	September 17	at No. 23 Florida*	L 0–32
2016	October 22	at Army*	W 35–18
2016	December 27	vs. Army*	L 31–38 OT
2017	September 9	at SMU*	L 32–54
2017	September 16	at Iowa*	L 14–31
2017	November 18	Army*	W 52–49
2017	December 16	vs. Troy*	L 30–50
2018	September 1	SMU*	W 46–23
2018	September 15	at Arkansas*	W 44–17
2018	September 22	at Liberty*	W 47–7
2018	December 15	vs. Utah State*	L 13–52
2019	September 7	at SMU*	L 27–49
2019	September 14	at California*	L 17–23
2019	September 28	Houston*	L 25–46
2020	September 19	SMU*	L 35–65
2020	December 21	vs. Appalachian State*	L 28–56
2021	September 11	at SMU*	L 12–35
2021	October 9	at Missouri*	L 35–48
2021	October 23	Liberty*	L 26–35
2021	December 23	vs. Miami (OH)*	L 14–27
2022	September 3	SMU*	L 10–48
2022	September 17	at UNLV*	L 27–58
2022	September 24	at Memphis*	L 34–44

To save you from counting, that's a 5-18 record—a winning percentage of 21.74%. Not good.

And before you say, "Oh, well there are some good teams in there like Florida! We can't reasonably expect to beat Florida!" Okay, I can agree with you on that. But 2016 Florida is really the only team. Everyone else was beatable.

And before you say, "Oh, well some of those teams aren't in the AAC so it's not apples to apples." Okay, let's look at just the teams from the AAC during the seven seasons:

Year	Date	Opponent	Result
2016	September 3	SMU*	L 21–34
2017	September 9	at SMU*	L 32–54
2018	September 1	SMU*	W 46–23
2019	September 7	at SMU*	L 27–49
2019	September 28	Houston*	L 25–46
2020	September 19	SMU*	L 35–65
2021	September 11	at SMU*	L 12–35
2022	September 3	SMU*	L 10–48
2022	September 24	at Memphis*	L 34–44

That's a 1-8 record against AAC teams during his tenure—a winning percentage of just 11.11%.

I appreciate Seth for the positive things he has done at UNT, but he's not the guy who will lead us to AAC championships and playoff bids.

Thank you for putting in the work. Great post. 
 

Here is something I presume to be true, but you might disagree: while our athletic budget has been very high compared to other CUSA teams, there is still a natural limitation on the kind of program - and by default, the kind of athlete - UNT can currently run in the current set-up. 
 

With the new AAC money we’re about to get, in addition to more eyeballs (games on the ESPN family of networks vs. CBS Sports and Stadium), I think it is realistic our current staff will have more resources to up their level of performance. Not a guarantee, but realistic. 

[UNTLifer]

On 11/1/2022 at 9:53 AM, PlummMeanGreen said:

Most all on GMG have set their own criteria for SL to be able to stay, but I still wonder what Smatresk, WBaker & the BOR’s is? If he stays he has to have a (minimum) 5 year extension because recruiting is fixen ‘ to get nasty in the American.  If he only received a 2 year contract extension, UNT would get hammered in recruiting the next 2 years & beyond. 

Minimum 5 year extension?

[keith]

23 hours ago, MeanGreenGlory said:

That's a 1-8 record against AAC teams during his tenure—a winning percentage of just 11.11%.

I appreciate Seth for the positive things he has done at UNT, but he's not the guy who will lead us to AAC championships and playoff bids.

Yep, pretty bleak, but by AAC teams you really mean SMU - 7 of the 9 games.  Other than SMU we've only played Houston once (leaving the AAC next year) and Memphis once (a ten point loss on the road), so we don't really know how we stack up against the rest of the AAC.  Lots of times when I look at head-to-head match-ups between teams from different conferences, I usually, but not always, go with the team from the "stronger" conference.  I don't think it's a stretch to say that the AAC is and has historically been a much stronger conference than C-USA, so games between the two conferences would generally favor the AAC.  We won't know how our program will do in the AAC until we are in the AAC and its composition changes dramatically next year.

If we look at our records going back to 2016 against the teams that will be joining us in the AAC next year we have a larger body of work to work with.  Our record is 12-11 with games against UAB and Rice yet to be played this year.  Not earth-shattering, but not a 0.11 winning percentage either.  The level of success in the AAC is yet to be determined and doesn't depend on games played in the 20-teens.  

[southsideguy]

I have a friend that follows Texas Tech football ( I know) and he told the Tech job is UTSA coach to accept or turn down. Tech wants someone with Texas ties for recruiting.  We shall see I am sure Tech has the money to do it.

[UNTLifer]

1 minute ago, southsideguy said:

I have a friend that follows Texas Tech football ( I know) and he told the Tech job is UTSA coach to accept or turn down. Tech wants someone with Texas ties for recruiting.  We shall see I am sure Tech has the money to do it.

Joey McGuire is in his first year in Lubbock and has as many ties as Traylor.  I don't see them firing him in year one and taking a chance on Traylor.

[southsideguy]

most likely right on that, I saw his name mention for the Colorado Buffs job recently.