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DRC: Prediction -- WKU is a bad matchup for UNT, which will see its C-USA title hopes fade in loss to Hilltoppers

Brett Vito

By Brett Vito
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UNTcrazy727 Grand Master

UNTcrazy727

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WKU's 37.5 pts per game is misleading, IMO. That number is inflated by 2 blowouts versus 2 of the worst teams in the country (FIU, Hawaii). If you look at their last 4 games they are only averaging 27.5/game.

No doubt we'll give up some big plays, but I don't think they're on the same level as UTSA or SMU. This is all going to rest on Aune. I suspect, like UTSA, WKU is going to sellout to stop the run. We can't wait until the 4th quarter to get our passing game going. If Aune can't complete 60% of his passes, I don't like our chances. 

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Cr1028 Grand Master

Cr1028

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If Vito is right, this may be the game Wren makes his decision to move on. I think at the very worst it’ll take that 6th loss.

Edited by Cr1028
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Greenrex Veteran

Greenrex

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32 minutes ago, Cr1028 said:

If Vito is right, this may be the game Wren makes his decision to move on. I think at the very worst it’ll take that 6th loss.

I think Wren has already made his decision. He's just working the clock for the right moment when the stars align...the major donors, his bosses, the budget, and availability of new candidates to name a few.

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MeanGreenTexan Grand Master

MeanGreenTexan

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34 minutes ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

WKU's 37.5 pts per game is misleading, IMO. That number is inflated by 2 blowouts versus 2 of the worst teams in the country (FIU, Hawaii). If you look at their last 4 games they are only averaging 27.5/game.

No doubt we'll give up some big plays, but I don't think they're on the same level as UTSA or SMU. This is all going to rest on Aune. I suspect, like UTSA, WKU is going to sellout to stop the run. We can't wait until the 4th quarter to get our passing game going. If Aune can't complete 60% of his passes, I don't like our chances. 

UNT's 120th-ranked scoring defense is also misleading, IMO.   That number is kept down by 2 of the worst offenses in the country (UTEP, FCS-TSU).   If you look at our games without those two, we're actually the 130th-ranked scoring defense (out of 131).

This game is stupid.   
WKU scored the points against those bad teams just like we kept UTEP to 13 and TSU to 27 (this, in itself, is sad).

For me, I don't like that this game is on the road.   If it were at home, I think we'd have a much better shot. 

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untbowler Grand Master

untbowler

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1 hour ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

WKU's 37.5 pts per game is misleading, IMO. That number is inflated by 2 blowouts versus 2 of the worst teams in the country (FIU, Hawaii). If you look at their last 4 games they are only averaging 27.5/game.

No doubt we'll give up some big plays, but I don't think they're on the same level as UTSA or SMU. This is all going to rest on Aune. I suspect, like UTSA, WKU is going to sellout to stop the run. We can't wait until the 4th quarter to get our passing game going. If Aune can't complete 60% of his passes, I don't like our chances. 

then fine remove the TSU game and the vaunted SL offense also averages 27 pts while giving up 35 pts by the PB led defense. 

Also make sure we also throw out FIU when that game happens so everything is even your eyes.

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UNTcrazy727 Grand Master

UNTcrazy727

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46 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

UNT's 120th-ranked scoring defense is also misleading, IMO.   That number is kept down by 2 of the worst offenses in the country (UTEP, FCS-TSU).   If you look at our games without those two, we're actually the 130th-ranked scoring defense (out of 131).

This game is stupid.   
WKU scored the points against those bad teams just like we kept UTEP to 13 and TSU to 27 (this, in itself, is sad).

For me, I don't like that this game is on the road.   If it were at home, I think we'd have a much better shot. 

I’m just saying they’re closer to an offense that averages 27 a game than 37. Our defense has gotten better over the course of the year while WKU’s offense has stalled.
It’s not a stupid game. I’m looking at how each unit has preformed recently against mostly CUSA competition. After getting shredded the first few weeks our defense has shown signs of life.

Memphis- 30 points (could argue for 23 since we fumbled inside our 5)

FAU- 21 points

La Tech- 27 points

UTSA- 31 points 

 

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UNTcrazy727 Grand Master

UNTcrazy727

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1 hour ago, Greenrex said:

I think Wren has already made his decision. He's just working the clock for the right moment when the stars align...the major donors, his bosses, the budget, and availability of new candidates to name a few.

We still control our own destiny in CUSA. There’s no chance he’s made a decision as long as that’s the case. 

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GrayEagle Veteran

GrayEagle

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Question?

Let's say that we win out and CUSA doesn't lose a game...would there be a championship game?  I don't think so.  The East Division faded into oblivion when Marshall and Old Dominion went to the Sun Belt and we also lost Southern Miss.  That leaves uneven divisions so there would be no East champion.  The only way that I see we might get in a championship game is if (and that's a mighty big if) UTSA should lose a game along the way.

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UNTcrazy727 Grand Master

UNTcrazy727

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4 minutes ago, GrayEagle said:

Question?

Let's say that we win out and CUSA doesn't lose a game...would there be a championship game?  I don't think so.  The East Division faded into oblivion when Marshall and Old Dominion went to the Sun Belt and we also lost Southern Miss.  That leaves uneven divisions so there would be no East champion.  The only way that I see we might get in a championship game is if (and that's a mighty big if) UTSA should lose a game along the way.

There are no divisions this year...top 2 teams play in the CUSA Championship.

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Cr1028 Grand Master

Cr1028

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4 minutes ago, GrayEagle said:

Question?

Let's say that we win out and CUSA doesn't lose a game...would there be a championship game?  I don't think so.  The East Division faded into oblivion when Marshall and Old Dominion went to the Sun Belt and we also lost Southern Miss.  That leaves uneven divisions so there would be no East champion.  The only way that I see we might get in a championship game is if (and that's a mighty big if) UTSA should lose a game along the way.

They already scheduled a championship game for December 2nd and I believe it is just supposed to be the top two teams regardless of the old divisions much like the Big12 went to a few years ago. 

https://conferenceusa.com/news/2022/3/30/c-usa-announces-2022-football-schedule.aspx

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RBP79 Veteran

RBP79

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History and percentages I believe show that a SL team want fair to well with WKU. Course it's homecoming so there ain't nothing aligning for this team to be victorious ...

 

Hope I'm wrong..

Green Otaku Grand Master

Green Otaku

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3 hours ago, Cr1028 said:

If Vito is right, this may be the game Wren makes his decision to move on. I think at the very worst it’ll take that 6th loss.

 

IF it does play out the way Vito is saying, it absolutely should be the game WB finally drops the hammer on. 

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NT80 Grand Master

NT80

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2 hours ago, Pavlovs Eagle said:

Doesn't the opposite of what Vito predicts normally happen? Or has even Vito lost that lovin feeling?

Maybe Seth fired Vito this week as his promo guy?  

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Cr1028 Grand Master

Cr1028

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Pavlovs Eagle said:

Doesn't the opposite of what Vito predicts normally happen? Or has even Vito lost that lovin feeling?

In past seasons it seemed that way but he is 6-2 this year. He was a miracle away from being 7-1 if we had beaten UTSA. The only bad miss he had was UNLV and most of us expected to win that one too.

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Hookset Proficient

Hookset

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20 hours ago, GrayEagle said:

Question?

Let's say that we win out and CUSA doesn't lose a game...would there be a championship game?  I don't think so.  The East Division faded into oblivion when Marshall and Old Dominion went to the Sun Belt and we also lost Southern Miss.  That leaves uneven divisions so there would be no East champion.  The only way that I see we might get in a championship game is if (and that's a mighty big if) UTSA should lose a game along the way.

CUSA only has one division this year. The first place and the second place teams will play for the conference championship after the season. 
We win this weekend and keep winning, (assuming UTSA keeps winning), we will finish second to UTSA and play them again in December.

I want that rematch!!!

GMG!!!

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UNTLifer Grand Master

UNTLifer

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13 hours ago, Pavlovs Eagle said:

Doesn't the opposite of what Vito predicts normally happen? Or has even Vito lost that lovin feeling?

Yes, that explains my earlier comment.

The Jeffersons Dancing GIF

Last week he predicted a win.

StealthEagle84 Community Regular

StealthEagle84

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I'm not sure this is as bad of a matchup as stated.  Yes, they throw the ball well and our secondary can give up big chunks.  But, I don't think they've seen a run game like ours (when we're clicking).  I'm hoping last week was an anomaly and we get back on track running the ball this weekend.  IF (big if) we can get the ground game going, we'll have a solid chance at winning this game.   

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MeanGreenTexan Grand Master

MeanGreenTexan

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49 minutes ago, StealthEagle84 said:

I'm not sure this is as bad of a matchup as stated.  Yes, they throw the ball well and our secondary can give up big chunks.  But, I don't think they've seen a run game like ours (when we're clicking).  I'm hoping last week was an anomaly and we get back on track running the ball this weekend.  IF (big if) we can get the ground game going, we'll have a solid chance at winning this game.   

As vaunted as our run game is, we're not the best rushing team in C-USA.   UAB averages 16yds/gm more than us.
That same UAB squad ran over WKU to the tune of 228yds just last week...  and WKU still won.

So, not only have they seen a run game like ours (actually better) just 1 week ago, they beat it.

And the problem with our run game is, like we saw VS UNLV, if we get behind too far, we can no-longer lean on it, and then we get blown out because we can't pass effectively and our secondary is susceptible to getting burned.
 

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