12 Team CFP Expansion Confirmed

[NT80]

1 hour ago, MeanGreen22 said:

Giving the 6 at large spots to the top ranked schools will just end up being a reason to rank G5 schools lower than they should be. You think they’ll take the 12-0 G5 school or the 9-3 SEC school. It’ll be an easy choice. Without a guaranteed spot for G5, this doesn’t move the needle for me. 

Actually it does guarantee a G5 spot, as one of the six highest-rated conference champs.  A 16-team model would have been better if it included all conference champs, but this is much better than the current format of only 4 bias-picked teams.

FBS conferences are P5:  SEC, Big10, Big12, Pac12, ACC

G5 are:  AAC, MWC, CUSA, CUSA, SBC, plus Independents, but those like ND would have to qualify as at-large.

 

"The board's 11 presidents and chancellors approved the original 12-team model, which includes the six highest-ranked conference champions and six at-large teams, as determined by the CFP selection committee. The 10 FBS commissioners and Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick will meet next week in Dallas to figure out the details."

[El Paso Eagle]

The problem I see with this is that since the rankings are subjective you can guarantee there will not be more than one G5 team ranked in the top 12.

[NT80]

8 minutes ago, RBP79 said:

It offers a glimmer of hope. But the two big conferences will some how still influence (money) who gets to sit at the table. I hope those two conferences begin to eat there own. I hope this has already started with the jealously of the NIL monies of Texas and ATM by none other than Saban/ Alabama. Maybe one day college football with come back to earth.

These 16-team super conferences will soon find out that they could go 10-2 and still finish 3rd in their conference and out of the playoffs, lol.

[NT80]

This G5 guaranteed spot is excellent news for NT if it starts in 2024.  Our schedule strength will improve in the AAC.  UH, Cincy, UCF, BYU will be gone to the Big12.  SDSU is rumored to get picked up by the Pac10/12.   Who would we have to do better than as a G5 other than Boise, maybe Memphis or Smut?  

[Cr1028]

1 hour ago, GMG_Dallas said:

The comment I replied to implied a 12-0 G5 team would be passed over by a 9-3 SEC team. How many G5 teams have gone undefeated through the regular season since the start of the college football playoffs? I can think of 5 (Coastal Carolina, UCF twice, Cincy, Western Michigan). Now how many 2-loss teams have made the playoffs? Zero. Each of these undefeated G5s were passed up by single loss P5s except for Cincy who obviously made the playoffs.

While I understand why it's frustrating as a fan, the facts don't support the notion that a 3-loss P5 would make a 12-team, or a 4-team, playoff over an undefeated G5.

LSU played in the bcs national championship game as a 2 loss SEC team while 12-0 Hawaii went to the Sugar Bowl. I could see a scenario where they would take a 9-3 SEC West team over a 12-0 MAC or CUSA team.

Edited September 2, 2022 by Cr1028

[PlummMeanGreen]

3 hours ago, MeanGreen22 said:

Giving the 6 at large spots to the top ranked schools will just end up being a reason to rank G5 schools lower than they should be. You think they’ll take the 12-0 G5 school or the 9-3 SEC school. It’ll be an easy choice. Without a guaranteed spot for G5, this doesn’t move the needle for me. 

Methinks this is still a G5 positive.  Now if the NCAA will only fix & pull in NIL to some degree.

•••Anyone know if the Pioneer Woman ever sets up a tailgate table on “The Hill?” 

•••Below pic is Ree Drummond driving around Denton & giving her version of the Eagle Claw.  She & her daughter drove down from Oklahoma to set up her son Bryce’s dormitory room.  

GMG! 

Edited September 2, 2022 by PlummMeanGreen

[MeanGreenGlory]

31 minutes ago, NT80 said:

This G5 guaranteed spot is excellent news for NT if it starts in 2024.  Our schedule strength will improve in the AAC.  UH, Cincy, UCF, BYU will be gone to the Big12.  SDSU is rumored to get picked up by the Pac10/12.   Who would we have to do better than as a G5 other than Boise, maybe Memphis or Smut?  

I might have missed a few who will be moving conferences/divisions over the next few years, but this is the gist of the schools we'd have to beat (including Boise, Memphis, and SMU):

Air Force
Akron
Appalachian State
Arkansas State
Ball State
Boise State
Bowling Green
Buffalo
Central Michigan
Charlotte
Coastal Carolina
Colorado State
East Carolina
Eastern Michigan
FIU
Florida Atlantic
Fresno State
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
Hawaiʻi
James Madison
Kent State
Louisiana
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana–Monroe
Marshall
Memphis
Miami (OH)
Middle Tennessee
Navy
Nevada
New Mexico
Northern Illinois
Ohio
Old Dominion
Rice
San Jose State
SMU
South Alabama
South Florida
Southern Miss
Temple
Texas State
Toledo
Troy
Tulane
Tulsa
UAB
UCF
UNLV
Utah State
UTEP
UTSA
Western Kentucky
Western Michigan
Wyoming

 

 

 

[GMG_Dallas]

12 minutes ago, Cr1028 said:

LSU played in the bcs national championship game as a 2 loss SEC team while 12-0 Hawaii went to the Sugar Bowl. I could see a scenario where they would take a 9-3 SEC West team over a 12-0 MAC or CUSA team.

Was this in the playoff era? No. I specifically mentioned the playoff era because there's a panel picking teams instead of a computer formula.

[TheColonyEagle]

For those that keep bringing up Cincy and UCF and trying to equate them to us going to the AAC. Sorry to burst bubbles but they’re not in the AAC anymore. With their exit plus Houston…the AAC isn’t the AAC anymore. I don’t understand why people get so caught up in the conference name. The AAC is just a small step up from CUSA with those teams gone.  Just like when we went to CUSA after they all left CUSA. It wasn’t the same CUSA. 
 

Look at the new AAC from a national lens….

[Arkstfan]

7 hours ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Bad take. UCF nearly got in a few years ago and Cincinnati got in just a year ago over those 9-3 SEC teams. This helps us.

"Just win, baby."

Under this format AAC and Sun Belt would have both made the playoff in 2000

[Arkstfan]

If (big if) reports of B1G going to 20 pan out we may end up in a 9 team FBS.
 

B1G taking Oregon, Washington and two of Cal, Stanford, and Notre Dame would almost certainly mean Arizona, Arizona, State, Utah and Colorado to Big 12. At that point you are left with Oregon State and Washington State and maybe one of Cal and Stanford in Pac-12. Most likely they join MWC except it's branded as joining Pac-12 or a merger so the MWC can have the Pac-12 name.

[greenminer]

starting by the 2026 season...

Is there any possible path in place for this to start sooner?

[El Paso Eagle]

25 minutes ago, greenminer said:

starting by the 2026 season...

Is there any possible path in place for this to start sooner?

2026 is the latest it can start. They will start negotiating with the TV contracts and see if they can do it sooner and it seems like they hope to start in 2024

[NT80]

23 minutes ago, greenminer said:

starting by the 2026 season...

Is there any possible path in place for this to start sooner?

Since some of the expanded Playoff games would involve using Bowls they have to get all the logistics agreed to first, but......

"We have asked our commissioners, the management committee, to explore the possibility of us beginning the 12-team playoff format before the 2026 season, in either 2024 or 2025."

The 10 FBS commissioners and Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick will meet next Thursday in Irving, Texas, to begin discussions on possibly implementing the format as early as 2024."

[greenminer]

Thanks guys.  I'm optimistic.  The new format likely means more money for the networks, so why wouldn't they make this happen?

[outoftown]

Some of you (particularly among the early posters), when given a 100$ bill would complain that it is wrinkled. This is a huge gift to all conferences other than the B1G and SEC. All other conferences profit, very much including the AAC and MWC who can hope to have a playoff team every other year, the Belt, CUSA and MAC who now might get one in once a decade (where before it was never gonna happen) and also the three middle class conferences, all of which have seen years where none of their future membership got in. Concerning NT and the AAC: Would you rather have a realistic shot at a nY6 Bowl or at the playoffs? if your answer is NY6 then you might be getting too old. Will access be perfectly fair from here on out? No, seeding etc will not be. But it will be a fairer shot than NT and all other AAC members had at competing for a national championship in 5 decades, and NT might never have had more of its own destiny in its own hands than from 2026 on. You are good and win your conference, you get a seat at the table. Maybe the least comfortable seat, but a seat nonetheless. Its a ginormous step in the right direction. Something like Gonzaga in BBall will remain an extreme long shot, but it becomes at least imaginable. That matters.

It has nice side effects like potentially stabilizing the realignment a bit (PAC12 fallout still has to sift through though), because if you are Oregon, are you sure you are better off going to the B1G, when the access to the playoff in you're watered down conference might be easier than in the B1G where there are 5 teams contending for a playoff spot. They may get 3 or even 4 in a good year, but in your conference you only have to beat the middle class.

Edited September 3, 2022 by outoftown

[NT91]

It will be 18 teams by 2032 if money is being left on the table.

[GMG_Dallas]

1 hour ago, NT91 said:

It will be 18 teams by 2032 if money is being left on the table.

This. Playoffs will take the cake. I think this is a battle between P5s and NCAA/Networks for money. P5s don't want to split the pie but I think the NCAA/Networks realize they can only milk the same cow so many times. By alienating the G5. You're alienating half of college football fans when it comes to playoff viewership, especially since nobody cares for the bowls anymore.

During the Pitt/West Virginia game, they had somebody come on who, if I'm not mistaken, was formerly either with the Pitt AD or coaching staff. He said his biggest issue with NIL is that money isn't being distributed evenly and he believes that's being worked on to correct. If it's TV money from the NCAA, why aren't all NCAA teams getting a cut similar to pro sports leagues. Like I said, I believe eventually things will balance out because the networks and NCAA are leaving a bunch of money on the table by only catering to the top P5 schools.

The NCAA generated 1.1 billion in 2021. The NFL? 11 billion. It's all football and most fans watch both so why the revenue disparity? The answer is in yesterday's news.

Edited September 3, 2022 by GMG_Dallas

[Green Otaku]

Another positive of this format is it gives the G5 teams a chance to build some recognition, starting at a lower seed is actually a good thing. Under the current format you basically start at the semis, Cincy had 1 chance to prove a G5 belonged and when they lost people can say, "See! That's why G5s shouldn't be in the playoffs." Beating 2 teams before this to get to the semis paints your team in a different light. For the first time in decades G5s have an actual chance of building their brand/perception/national recognition.