North Texas vs UTEP Odds, Picks and Predictions: Miners Take Home Opener

Coach Andy Mac · August 25, 2022

North Texas comes into this Week 0 matchup as a slight home underdog but we like their chances, led by a stout defense. Read more on why we're fading the Mean Green on Saturday in our North Texas vs. UTEP betting picks.

North Texas vs UTEP picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

It was a tale of two halves for Seth Littrell’s North Texas Mean Green last year. After an opening win against FCS school Northwestern State, they’d go on to lose six straight games. At that point, bowl eligibility seemed like a pipe dream.

Not so fast! Typically operating a pass-first system, Littrell’s team changed its identity to a power run spread attack and reeled off five straight victories to end the regular season. Which are we more likely to see in 2022 — the Mean Green of the first half, or the second half?

The offensive success likely continues, as they return eight starters on that side of the ball while ranking fifth in offensive returning production. A rushing attack that averaged 235.4 yards per game on the ground loses Deandre Torrey but should be fine as Oscar Adaway III returns from injury to combine with Ikaika Ragsdale and Ayo Adeyi.

Four offensive linemen also return to a team that ranked eight in power success rate a year ago. The defense is more of a concern after losing the star brother duo of Gabriel and Grayson Murphy to UCLA.

As for UTEP, the Miners reached bowl eligibility last year for the first time since 2014. This has typically been a moribund program, as they’ve had only two winning seasons since 2005. However, the culture is starting to change under head coach Dana Dimel, and there’s genuine positive momentum.

Dimel inherited an 0-12 team in 2018 and would go 2-22 over his first two seasons. Things started to change with a 3-5 record during the COVID-shortened 2020 season, and the light finally showed through a year ago with a 7-6 record.

The Miners play sound defense and make enough plays offensively to pull out wins. I’m siding with them as I think the wrong team is favored. UTEP returns 15 starters and ranks 51st in returning production for one of the program’s better teams in recent memory.

The offensive line returns three experienced starters who could have all-league potential, there are two experienced running backs to utilize, and quarterback Gavin Hardison managed 9.0 yards per attempt a season ago.

The defense will remain a strength, and this has the makings of a well-rounded team that won’t be easy to beat.

Prediction: UTEP +1.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

read more: https://www.covers.com/ncaaf/north-texas-vs-utep-odds-picks-predictions-august-27-2022