Big 12-PAC 12 Talks End! Now what?

[TCC Mean Green]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/34264518/sources-big-12-pac-12-partner-talks-officially-end%3Fplatform%3Damp

[emmitt01]

That article sounds like two leagues realizing they are now, at best, shadows of a “power” conference and trying to save face now that their merger won’t net them what they thought it might

[TCC Mean Green]

Both will now have to get G-5’s if they want to expand.

Expansion usually happens at least by end of July.  Do we now wait and see?

Fun times!  #GMG

[NT93]

I’m thinking this is bad news for UNT.  I hope I’m wrong.

[NT80]

4 minutes ago, TCC Mean Green said:

Both will now have to get G-5’s if they want to expand.

Expansion usually happens at least by end of July.  Do we now wait and see?

Fun times!  #GMG

No, this was an attempt to merge all schools.  That didn't work out with the revenue numbers.  Next, I think the Big?12 comes poaching for individual PAC schools (Colo, AZ, ASU, Utah).  

The PAC is also starting to see greatly de-valued media rights estimates for their next contract with UCLA/USC and the LA media market gone.  That will cause those remaining schools to investigate Big?12 offers individually. 

[cousin oliver]

2 minutes ago, NT80 said:

Next, I think the Big?12 comes poaching for individual

SMUt?

[cousin oliver]

11 minutes ago, TCC Mean Green said:

Both will now have to get G-5’s if they want to expand.

Expansion usually happens at least by end of July.  Do we now wait and see?

Fun times!  #GMG

Why more G5s?  Just more mouths to feed.

[Cougar King]

Big 12 will grab Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah. Washington and Oregon can either come to The Big 12 or wait for a Big 10 invite that may or may not come.

 

Stanford is Stanford and will do Stanford things. They have $37 billion, already recruit nationally and can afford independence if they want to. 

 

Cal, Oregon State and Washington State are dead weight and have outlived their usefulness in the world of college football.

 

 

 

[NT80]

1 hour ago, cousin oliver said:

SMUt?

No, Big?12 has already passed on them twice.  They want new Media markets and Big Program value; Smut brings neither.  Phoenix, Denver, Tucson, and Salt Lake City.

[ADLER]

Everybody needs to see what Notre Dame decides before they make their next move.

The Big XII doesn't want to add G-5's if Colorado, Utah, Arizona and ASU may soon become available.

The remaining PAC schools must also be leery of the BIG 10 eventually absorbing Stanford, Cal, Oregon, and Washington.

The two next moves belong to Notre Dame and to the Big 10.

Only then can the PAC and Big XII determine whether they can remain viable separate conferences, or need to merge in some fashion.

 

[DeepGreen]

WAIT!!!!  Have we signed on the dotted line with the AAC yet?

[MrAlien]

Its all about timing, media deals expire at different times, and no one is really sure what the value is of each conference is with out TX/OU/USC/UCLA. 

[untjim1995]

12 hours ago, Cougar King said:

Big 12 will grab Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah. Washington and Oregon can either come to The Big 12 or wait for a Big 10 invite that may or may not come.

 

Stanford is Stanford and will do Stanford things. They have $37 billion, already recruit nationally and can afford independence if they want to. 

 

Cal, Oregon State and Washington State are dead weight and have outlived their usefulness in the world of college football.

 

 

 

This.

Stanford, Oregon, and Washington are all B1G bound. Its just a matter of when and who goes with them. Notre Dame is the major prize here. But if they stay independent and aligned with the ACC, there are plenty of other options. Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and Kansas are all AAU institutions that fit the B1G's profile and geography needs. The ACC's GOR doesn't expire until 2036, so none of those teams are gonna be available until 2034 at the earliest. And most of them are gonna be SEC bound. UVa, UNC, Duke, and GT are AAU, but Clemson, FSU, Miami, Va Tech, and NC State are not, IIRC. 

My guess is that the Pac remnants and the Big 12 remnants will all combine with the remnants of the AAC in about 12 years and will make up the 3rd major conference, with a much smaller payout per team than the B1G and SEC.

[GreenFlag]

13 hours ago, Cougar King said:

Big 12 will grab Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah. Washington and Oregon can either come to The Big 12 or wait for a Big 10 invite that may or may not come.

 

Stanford is Stanford and will do Stanford things. They have $37 billion, already recruit nationally and can afford independence if they want to. 

 

Cal, Oregon State and Washington State are dead weight and have outlived their usefulness in the world of college football.

 

 

 

My first upvote ever for the Queen.

[Green Otaku]

13 hours ago, NT93 said:

I’m thinking this is bad news for UNT.  I hope I’m wrong.

 

I'd definitely be better for us if the block of AZ, A. State,Colorado, and Utah get taken. Let's hope that happens in the future. 

[wardly]

10 hours ago, untjim1995 said:

This.

Stanford, Oregon, and Washington are all B1G bound. Its just a matter of when and who goes with them. Notre Dame is the major prize here. But if they stay independent and aligned with the ACC, there are plenty of other options. Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and Kansas are all AAU institutions that fit the B1G's profile and geography needs. The ACC's GOR doesn't expire until 2036, so none of those teams are gonna be available until 2034 at the earliest. And most of them are gonna be SEC bound. UVa, UNC, Duke, and GT are AAU, but Clemson, FSU, Miami, Va Tech, and NC State are not, IIRC. 

My guess is that the Pac remnants and the Big 12 remnants will all combine with the remnants of the AAC in about 12 years and will make up the 3rd major conference, with a much smaller payout per team than the B1G and SEC.

I don't think Oregon or Washing are BIG Bound as they each don't bring $100 million per year increase in revenue which is buy in for BIG's poker game. Notre Dame is negotiating with NBC on new contract plus Irish are legally bound to ACC until 2036 with huge buyout penalty. The PAC is negotiating with ESPN and FOX to determine their value and will wait until BIG 12 does the same in 2024. It appears to me that both will do nothing until both conferences know their value without their respective bell cows, which is estimated to be 20% less with them. I do think that if they don't merge both would like to add two programs  to get to 12. The problem for both is finding 2 that would bring the same market value as the rest of the conference. Boise might get close, but I can't think of another G5 program that gets close to $35 million per year.

[NT80]

6 minutes ago, wardly said:

I do think that if they don't merge both would like to add two programs  to get to 12. The problem for both is finding 2 that would bring the same market value as the rest of the conference. Boise might get close, but I can't think of another G5 program that gets close to $35 million per year.

The Big12 is already at 12 members with the new additions of BYU, Cinn, UH, and UCF and losing OU and UT.   They could get to 16 by adding Colo, AZ, ASU, and Utah.  

Some are predicting three (3) Super Conferences eventually with up to 20 members each = Top 60, and the leftovers or Bottom 70 are basically 1-AA again.

[MeanGreenGlory]

What are the chances this causes enough disruption in the MWC to make Colorado State and Air Force join the AAC? I believe they expressed interest before the MWC announced they were staying out for the time being. 

[NT80]

16 minutes ago, MeanGreenGlory said:

What are the chances this causes enough disruption in the MWC to make Colorado State and Air Force join the AAC? I believe they expressed interest before the MWC announced they were staying out for the time being. 

Excellent chance, especially if the PAC crumbles and is not an option, and the Big12 becomes full. 

I'd bet AAC Commish Aresco has already been floating baited lines out to them.  He seems like a forward-thinking manager (unlike Judy). 

[wardly]

10 hours ago, NT80 said:

The Big12 is already at 12 members with the new additions of BYU, Cinn, UH, and UCF and losing OU and UT.   They could get to 16 by adding Colo, AZ, ASU, and Utah.  

Some are predicting three (3) Super Conferences eventually with up to 20 members each = Top 60, and the leftovers or Bottom 70 are basically 1-AA again.

OPPS. No wonder I took Basic Accounting 101 three times. Oh Well! The only issue I see for the Big 12 is how important is it for BYU and UCF to have a "travel partner". West Virginia finely got one with the addition of Cincy so there doesn't appear to be a sense of urgency.

[southsideguy]

so the pac 10 office is calling the Big 12 members and the Big 12 is now calling the PAC-10 members.  Who is the better snake oil salesperson.  Rumor has it Judy has calls into Stanford and Oregon.