Top G5 Expansion Candidates

[NM Green]

They need to rip the bandaid off and kick out Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Missouri maybe. That makes room for Florida State, Clemson and Miami or Virginia Tech. 

From the North you kick out Minnesota, Purdue, Northwestern, Rutgers. That gets you Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal. 

Big 12 and ACC get to go shopping again. 

GMG

[meanrob]

3 minutes ago, NM Green said:

They need to rip the bandaid off and kick out Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Missouri maybe. That makes room for Florida State, Clemson and Miami or Virginia Tech. 

From the North you kick out Minnesota, Purdue, Northwestern, Rutgers. That gets you Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal. 

Big 12 and ACC get to go shopping again. 

GMG

Honestly, why would you take Virginia Tech, Cal or Stanford? Only Stanford has been relevant in football the past ten years. Nope, they get relegated too. 

[NT80]

13 minutes ago, NM Green said:

They need to rip the bandaid off and kick out Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Missouri maybe. That makes room for Florida State, Clemson and Miami or Virginia Tech. 

From the North you kick out Minnesota, Purdue, Northwestern, Rutgers. That gets you Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal. 

Agree.  I would never consider them Super Conferences with some of the dead-weight programs they have.  Plenty of outside football better than Vanderbilt, Rutgers, et al. 

[NT80]

24 minutes ago, C Rod said:

Rumors are the Pac12 and ACC are talking about a "loose partnership" that would be legally binding and align the two conferences together to fend off the B10 and SEC. 

https://trojanswire.usatoday.com/2022/07/05/acc-rumors-build-as-pac-12-tries-to-save-itself-and-stick-it-to-the-big-ten/

Nothing is binding when realignment is stalking.  This is another version of the loose Alliance the Pac12, ACC, and B1G made last year...before the B1G decided to expand from within the Alliance, lol.

Another desperation move: The Pac10 Commish is trying to accelerate media rights negotiations (all while schools are trying to bail out)...

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/34198300/pac-12-accelerates-negotiations-media-rights-deals-wake-ucla-usc-exits

[C Rod]

10 hours ago, NT80 said:

Nothing is binding when realignment is stalking.  This is another version of the loose Alliance the Pac12, ACC, and B1G made last year...before the B1G decided to expand from within the Alliance, lol.

Except this time, this wouldn't be an alliance, it would be a loose legal partnership. This rumor is now out in the open and they're talking about a championship game in Vegas. 

https://trojanswire.usatoday.com/2022/07/06/report-pac-12-and-acc-are-exploring-a-partnership-and-a-vegas-title-game/

[LitMedallion]

On 7/5/2022 at 10:44 AM, greenminer said:

I get mixed messages about a program's facility.  Some people care that you own it, some people don't.

Miami won many national titles in a rental Orange Bowl.  Our lease is far cheaper than a stadium and it's a good location for travelling fans. We also don't have space on campus for anything more than a new additional basketball arena. Any other upgrades will be in their current space. Any football stadium will be off campus anyway.

That 72 degrees is pretty darned nice!

As far as the article, UTSA is not financially ready. We are at our limit currently. It's a pipe dream.

[greenminer]

15 minutes ago, LitMedallion said:

Miami won many national titles in a rental Orange Bowl.  Our lease is far cheaper than a stadium and it's a good location for travelling fans. We also don't have space on campus for anything more than a new additional basketball arena. Any other upgrades will be in their current space. Any football stadium will be off campus anyway.

 

The people that mock you would still mock Miami.  In the minds of those people, owning it and having it on campus should be a requisite.  It adds legitimacy to your brand, regardless of how well you already play.

[wardly]

On 7/5/2022 at 8:58 PM, meangreenbob said:

It’s way way way too late for North Texas football. 
Bad leadership for decades, bad hires and lack of an honest commitment sealed our fate a long long time ago.

 
 

Unfortunately I must agree. Regarding the PAC 12, all I know is what I read, which is[a] If Notre Dame joins THE BIG, then Stanford will get an invitation because of their close relationship with the IRISH. [b] If ND says no, and they would owe the ACC a ton of money if the say yes, then Oregon and Washington may get a invited but not as a full share partner as their franchises are worth far less than $100 million each per year which is THE BIG's new benchmark. [c] If Oregon and Washington are not included in THE BIG's expansion then they can either move to BIG 12 or stay and rebuild the PAC. [d] If the PAC reloads they will include programs in major markets regardless of location and presence conference affiliation. Their keys to their survival are Oregon and Washington, who will jump to THE BIG given half a chance,

[Jonnyeagle]

4 minutes ago, wardly said:

Unfortunately I must agree. Regarding the PAC 12, all I know is what I read, which is[a] If Notre Dame joins THE BIG, then Stanford will get an invitation because of their close relationship with the IRISH. [b] If ND says no, and they would owe the ACC a ton of money if the say yes, then Oregon and Washington may get a invited but not as a full share partner as their franchises are worth far less than $100 million each per year which is THE BIG's new benchmark. [c] If Oregon and Washington are not included in THE BIG's expansion then they can either move to BIG 12 or stay and rebuild the PAC. [d] If the PAC reloads they will include programs in major markets regardless of location and presence conference affiliation. Their keys to their survival are Oregon and Washington, who will jump to THE BIG given half a chance,

So who survives in your mind the PAC12 or Big12?  Or do they do a complete merger?  What happens with the left overs like Oregon State and Cal?

[wardly]

On 7/7/2022 at 9:28 AM, Jonnyeagle said:

So who survives in your mind the PAC12 or Big12?  Or do they do a complete merger?  What happens with the left overs like Oregon State and Cal?

Well, today I read  that the PAC was staying together and two programs under their consideration for expansion were SDSU to shore up the southern California market and SMU to break into Texas. They may also make a run at Houston, who applied for admittance  before being accepted by the BIG 12. Of course that all could change tomorrow. The PAC want to slow expansion down while the BIG 12 is operating at warp speed. The consensus is the the BIG 12 needs to expand now to perhaps 16 programs and that ESPN is looking at eyeballs on tv's vs size of market. For example, Boise is a very small market but has a lot of eyeballs on them when they play as opposed to Rice who is in a very large market but who cares. I would think the BIG 12 wants travel partners for both BYU and UCF. Boise seems to fit the bill for the Cougars and perhaps Memphis for the Knights although I personally think South Florida is the sleeping giant that North Texas claims to be. To keep up to date GOOGLE both "BIG 12 EXPANSION" and "PAC12 EXPANSION" which will leave you confused as everyone else.

[keith]

Now that coast-to-coast conferences are a thing, I suppose anything is possible.  Even at the remaining 10, I think the PAC has more cachet and prestige than the future B12 can muster.  In the six states the PAC is in, they have the flagship university in each state plus the 2nd flagship school in 3 of the states.  The B12 is in 7 states and has only 2 flagship universities and like the PAC, the 2nd flagship in 3 of the states.  When the B12 reloaded they did so with four G5 teams.  I don't think that makes them more attractive to any school remaining in the PAC than staying in the PAC and reloading.  I also don't think the B1G or USC has an interest in destroying the PAC by taking more.  Remember, USC and UCLA fell into the B1G's lap.  It wasn't like the B1G was out to poach schools from the PAC.  Consequently, I don't see any of the remaining PAC schools moving to the B12 or the B1G.  They all stay together and reload.  

It also seems to be a race to 16 (or 18 or 20 or more?).

Would the PAC follow its 1, 2 model and take Utah State and Colorado St to lock up the top 2 universities in 5 of the 6 states it is in?  Suck it up Colorado and Utah.  That gets them to 12.  Keeping with this theme, could they then woo Kansas and Kansas St out of the B12?  I think it would be hard for these two to say no to that offer.  That gets the PAC to 14.  California is a big state.  USC and UCLA don't own all of it.  Cal has been down, but is still the state's flagship university.  Stanford is a perennial winner in multiple sports.  To shore up as much of California as they can, they finish off by adding two G5s in SDSU and Fresno St.  That gets them to 16 and they pause there to see what happens next. 

Once all this dust settles, the PAC is at 16.  With the addition of USC/UCLA, the B1G is at 16, the B12 loses 2 and is back to 10, the MWC loses 4 and is down to 8 and on life-support.  The B1G is Notre Dame's natural home.  They just need to accept that.  If/when they do, then the B1G may look at getting the conference to 18 or 20.  If 18, Kansas is the leading candidate, but the PAC may be able to get Kansas first.  The B1G (and others) are in a holding pattern until ND does something.

If 16 is the minimum magic number, the B12 will need to add six.  At this point the MWC and AAC are at a combined 22 schools.  The B12 will take six from some combination of MWC and AAC schools.  Pick six, any six.  That gets the B12 to 16 and the combined MWC and AAC also at a total of 16 at which point they join to form a 16 school conference of some configuration.  

[Wag Tag]

The biggest issue for the Pac and MWC is attracting eyes on a national basis. Their time zone is a killer. I think both conferences need CTZ teams to attract the middle and eastern parts of the US. The last expansion the PAC and MWC did nothing and now they are going to pay for it.

[Mike Jackson]

On 7/5/2022 at 7:17 PM, NT80 said:

Football drives the Brand Bus.  Thus, the reason for us to get serious about our Football direction....looking at U Wren!! 😶

 

On 7/5/2022 at 8:58 PM, meangreenbob said:

It’s way way way too late for North Texas football. 
Bad leadership for decades, bad hires and lack of an honest commitment sealed our fate a long long time ago.

 
 

While I find conference realignment talk as frustrating as it is entertaining, I think our lack of a unified fanbase voice concerning football leadership decisions here.  There is absolutely no defense keeping Seth past 2021.  Even the “pissing off big donors” excuse isn’t logical.  If the big donors want to retain a head coach at the expense of the long term health of the program then your program might as well go back to FCS.  Betting millions against the trend.   Betting millions that he will find another Mason Fine (hopefully at least 6’ tall) and win big games. 

I had big dreams before it became apparent that Seth was coming back for 2022.  But it starts and ends with winning here.  And I truly believe with just good 4-5 year run of winning 9 regular season games, a conference title, and 2 bowl wins will get the program to the top of G5. 

NT80 is absolutely right but I fear WB missed his opportunity not to go against the grain and let Seth walk when flirted the KSU with 0 bowl wins, 0 conference titles and no end of season ranking in the top 25.  That is what a program serious about football would have done if said head coach was already at the time the highest paid in the conference.  He has always been well paid for the very limited success we have seen.  No reason to keep giving him raises as other coaches in the conference outclass him.  This ain’t Rice with their unique disadvantages.  
 

 

Edited July 13, 2022 by Mike Jackson

[El Paso Eagle]

On 7/12/2022 at 8:21 AM, keith said:

Now that coast-to-coast conferences are a thing, I suppose anything is possible.  Even at the remaining 10, I think the PAC has more cachet and prestige than the future B12 can muster.  In the six states the PAC is in, they have the flagship university in each state plus the 2nd flagship school in 3 of the states.  The B12 is in 7 states and has only 2 flagship universities and like the PAC, the 2nd flagship in 3 of the states.  When the B12 reloaded they did so with four G5 teams.  I don't think that makes them more attractive to any school remaining in the PAC than staying in the PAC and reloading.  I also don't think the B1G or USC has an interest in destroying the PAC by taking more.  Remember, USC and UCLA fell into the B1G's lap.  It wasn't like the B1G was out to poach schools from the PAC.  Consequently, I don't see any of the remaining PAC schools moving to the B12 or the B1G.  They all stay together and reload.  

It also seems to be a race to 16 (or 18 or 20 or more?).

Would the PAC follow its 1, 2 model and take Utah State and Colorado St to lock up the top 2 universities in 5 of the 6 states it is in?  Suck it up Colorado and Utah.  That gets them to 12.  Keeping with this theme, could they then woo Kansas and Kansas St out of the B12?  I think it would be hard for these two to say no to that offer.  That gets the PAC to 14.  California is a big state.  USC and UCLA don't own all of it.  Cal has been down, but is still the state's flagship university.  Stanford is a perennial winner in multiple sports.  To shore up as much of California as they can, they finish off by adding two G5s in SDSU and Fresno St.  That gets them to 16 and they pause there to see what happens next. 

Once all this dust settles, the PAC is at 16.  With the addition of USC/UCLA, the B1G is at 16, the B12 loses 2 and is back to 10, the MWC loses 4 and is down to 8 and on life-support.  The B1G is Notre Dame's natural home.  They just need to accept that.  If/when they do, then the B1G may look at getting the conference to 18 or 20.  If 18, Kansas is the leading candidate, but the PAC may be able to get Kansas first.  The B1G (and others) are in a holding pattern until ND does something.

If 16 is the minimum magic number, the B12 will need to add six.  At this point the MWC and AAC are at a combined 22 schools.  The B12 will take six from some combination of MWC and AAC schools.  Pick six, any six.  That gets the B12 to 16 and the combined MWC and AAC also at a total of 16 at which point they join to form a 16 school conference of some configuration.  

The upcoming potential contract with FOX was the PAC12's golden egg. That is not happening. Still think it's a risk when your top schools are ready to leave the moment the call comes. Why would you risk that. I think the PCA will see a 2-tier revenue sharing at the least