USC and UCLA to the Big 10

[SMU2006]

2 minutes ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

Where are they going to go? It’s starting to look like the Big 10 and SEC are going to expand to 20. The PAC 12 is cooked and I think the ACC will face a similar fate. If the Big 12 is smart they’ll pick up the leftovers and have a conference of 20 schools that’s strong enough to get a seat (albeit a small one) at the table with the SEC and Big 10. 
Anyone currently not a P5 or about to be isn’t moving up. Schools like SMU and Memphis are stuck. At this point their best bet is to stay in the American and help them become the 4th best conference. Who knows, maybe our new P2 or P3 overlords will throw us peasants a bone and allow our conference champion to compete in their new expanded tournament. 

The ACC GoR doesn't expire for a decade.  You can be assured they are not going to sit back and watch the Big 12 overtake them as the "third" conference in the pecking order.  They can also go out and poach WVU and potentially USF, Memphis, and SMU as low hanging fruit that gets them into some new markets and protect them when the SEC inevitably takes Clemson and FSU.

[Green Otaku]

6 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

From the PAC yes.

They are turning their sights on Notre Dame now.

If there is one school who can resist it's ND. They have been such a strong independent for so long it's practically part of their culture. The only way they join is if playoff access is cut off, and so far they have always accommodated them. 

[Coach Andy Mac]

 

[SMU2006]

3 minutes ago, Green Otaku said:

If there is one school who can resist it's ND. They have been such a strong independent for so long it's practically part of their culture. The only way they join is if playoff access is cut off, and so far they have always accommodated them. 

Their AD just said an hour ago that the future of remaining independent in the current landscape is going to be virtually impossible.

If the B1G adds Notre Dame as a full member then all hell is going to break loose.

[UNTcrazy727]

4 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

The ACC GoR doesn't expire for a decade.  You can be assured they are not going to sit back and watch the Big 12 overtake them as the "third" conference in the pecking order.  They can also go out and poach WVU and potentially USF, Memphis, and SMU as low hanging fruit that gets them into some new markets and protect them when the SEC inevitably takes Clemson and FSU.

You think that’s going to stop the SEC from poaching Clemson, FSU, Miami, etc. whenever they want? The money will be so big it won’t matter what penalties they have to pay. Adding Memphis, SMU, and UCF won’t do anything for the ACC. If they can’t add P5 programs then they’re dead. 

[El Paso Eagle]

7 minutes ago, Green Otaku said:

If there is one school who can resist it's ND. They have been such a strong independent for so long it's practically part of their culture. The only way they join is if playoff access is cut off, and so far they have always accommodated them. 

But if there is a chance the SEC and the Big Ten end up doing their own thing and Notre Dame does not choose to join they could be left out

[Green Otaku]

5 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

Their AD just said an hour ago that the future of remaining independent in the current landscape is going to be virtually impossible.

If the B1G adds Notre Dame as a full member then all hell is going to break loose.

The big hitch is ND has a contract that if they join a conference it would be the ACC through 2036. Now that can be changed, but you can bet it's going to be an astronomical price. 

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/notre-dame-join-big-ten-future-irish/zteje9akz0h2iwgkwlgeuehd#:~:text=Notre Dame joins the Big,of best non-conference games.

[Green Otaku]

7 minutes ago, El Paso Eagle said:

But if there is a chance the SEC and the Big Ten end up doing their own thing and Notre Dame does not choose to join they could be left out

Possible for sure. I'm just saying so far ND has been the only school they have been willing to bend and make exceptions for. 

[SMU2006]

While the price to get out of their agreement with the ACC would be utterly insane those things can be facilitated through the networks.  FOX knows that if they can add Notre Dame to the B1G that will keep them on a relatively level playing field with the SEC.  You'd also be adding the most historic college football program in America.  They can already sell "coast to coast" broadcasting and if they are able to lure the 800 lb gorilla into the conference then they might be willing to pay a king's ransom to do it.

[Coach Andy Mac]

 

[Coach Andy Mac]

 

[Arkstfan]

4 hours ago, NT93 said:

I fear when it’s all said and done that we’re back in C-USA 2.0.

Anything can freaking happen but I think that’s unlikely.

We are at a point where schools have to bring HUGE numbers to be viable to SEC and B1G.

We can safely say Washington State and Oregon State are boned in this deal.

With the division stuff no longer required, leagues have a lot of flexibility as long as it makes sense for them.

My off-hand handicapping.
 

Stanford I expect is headed to B1G. Every university president outside the Ivy League wants to be seen as an academic peer to Stanford. They are serious about academics for athletes and they are in the sixth largest TV market and have a big following. Not a USC following, more akin to UCLA football.
 

Cal I don’t feel so confident about. They’ve tended to be a mess and brand wise more Indiana or Purdue than Michigan State.

Washington in the 12th largest TV market, solid following. Like their chances.

Oregon 21st market, Nike love, weird national following.

Arizona State 11th largest TV market, epicenter of displaced B1G grads. More Nebraska academics than Northwestern academics. Play hockey so that doesn’t hurt.

Arizona an AAU member but not a well known brand but less than 2 hours from Phoenix.

Utah AAU in the 30th TV market. I think they are out.

Colorado just another Mizzou in mind. Seem like they are poised to do something big then don’t. But AAU and 16th largest TV market and frankly Nebraska probably would like to have them.

My feeling is B1G would be hard pressed to say no to Stanford, Washington, and Oregon.

I don’t know what the true tale is on Notre Dame. I’ve read claims Notre Dame is free to join any conference in football it’s the other sports they are hung up and other claims that they are on the hook for mega damages if they join another football league prior to 2036. 

With division format being unneeded any number is possible including odd numbers.

I expect B1G will take two more at least maybe four, can’t see six having the ROI to make it work.

So what happens?

If PAC-12 becomes PAC-6 they all trudge off to Big XII most likely and it’s all wrapped up.

Question is if you are Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Baylor do you want an 18 team league that includes UCF, Cincinnati, etc. or 12 or 14 teams aligned with the PAC-12 wreckage? You can cast off West Virginia, UCF, Cincinnati, BYU, and maybe Houston and TCU or take the latter two with you. Or maybe BYU slips in the mix to bolster Utah’s interest.

Then things are getting messy on this side of the Rockies. If Big XII is WVU, UCF, Cincinnati, Houston, TCU, and maybe BYU, then stuff is going to happen and it could impact every G5 league except maybe MAC.

ON THE OTHER HAND.

Entirely likely B1G has crunched the numbers and each non-Notre Dame addition after USC and UCLA provides diminishing ROI. Maybe they do stick at 16 or add only two more.

A PAC-10 or PAC-8 might not be so willing to traipse off the Big XII. Maybe they try to raid Big XII and who knows what that math looks like. Simply adding San Diego State and maybe Boise State, UNLV or BYU works for them. 

That gives you a MWC that maybe could add NMSU and UTEP, or maybe others from CUSA but might need to turn to FCS to round out.

It can certainly play out in utter chaos, or be tied up with a bow and create no G5 ripples.

[akriesman]

10 hours ago, El Paso Eagle said:

Sadly, whats left of the Big12 takes other AAC and MWC schools and we are back in a repackaged CUSA

Sadly, this is exactly what I see coming 😞    It will still be better than CUSA.   But, I can see Memphis and SMU being candidates for a watered down Big 12 (assuming the Pac 10 goes after the Big 12).

[NT80]

This will shake things up even more than the uT/oU movement did.

I don't see the SEC or Big16 further expanding beyond 16; because then it gets too large.  At 16 you can have pods and rivalries and see all football opponents within a couple years.  18 and more gets real ugly scheduling any sport.

It will be real interesting to watch the power fight between the PAC10 and Big?12.  Will they try to go to 16 also?  Who values who from the other side?  Does BYU now get invited to the PAC10 as they always wanted?  

Do any conferences jettison dead weight to pick up more TV value?  Could Vanderbilt get booted out of the SEC to make room for a ND or Clemson?

No Conference Commish will sit idle during this (except Judy).  There will be some leftover schools without homes after the fallout from the top tier.  The AAC's Aresco is very good at picking up future value assets.

This will be a fun summer after all !!

[Green Otaku]

A thing to keep in mind when we are comparing conference strengths/hierarchy. 

 

I was surprised at how low the ACC was, maybe it's an anomaly, since they had two low ranked teams in WF and Pitt. I was also surprised that the Big12 doubled the Pac12's viewers. 

Edited July 1, 2022 by Green Otaku

[Arkstfan]

Toddling off to bed and at this moment my outcome rankings from most to least likely.

1. B1G adds two more, some mix of Stanford, Oregon, Washington, the Arizona schools or Colorado. I think most likely is Oregon and either Stanford or Washington. PAC-8 makes a hard play to get 8 of the Big XII to defect. If unsuccessful congratulations SDSU, Boise, UNLV and if BYU says no, probably Hawaii.

2. B1G holds at 16, PAC-10 probably isn’t looking to join Big XII and vice versa unless someone gets panicky. If no panic, SDSU and Boise probably get the nod.

3. B1G adds four more. PAC-6 is reeling and Big XII probably just absorbs them unless there’s a big measure of regret in Big XII over expansion.

[Wag Tag]

Big12 with left over Pac10. AAC with left over MWC. If is obvious the big guys do not need to worry about travel expenses.

[outoftown]

17 hours ago, El Paso Eagle said:

Newsfash - The fact that the AAC was trying to block the MWC was discussed widely. If the lose a couple of teams let them take UTEP and NMSU and we all keep going. If they want a larger footprint in Texas go after Texas State.

I can actually see UTEP getting the nod plus someone else (somehow doubt it ll be NMSU). C-USA just found a way forward and now this. Then again, no more UTEP might actually help C-USA build something of an identity that would be more clearly eastern (might then actually change the name too).

[southsideguy]

I sure Judy is studying the on going situations and will do nothing.

[wardly]

 I think a lot depends upon if the Big 10 adds Washington and Oregon. If so, and the PAC 12 is down to 8 universities , then a merger with the Big 12 seems like the best move available. If not, then poaching SDSU, Boise State, and one or two others from the MWC might be the way to go. This would be similar to Big 12 reloading after loss of Texas and Oklahoma. However, since we are now looking at the creation of two Super Conferences, the Big 10 and SEC, and the probable destruction of the ACC, the only option to remain one of the BIG BOYS appears to be a merger . The combined PAC 12 with 10 teams and BIG 12 with 12 programs after the departure of Texas and Oklahoma could add two more schools and have 24 teams and two divisions of 12 or 4 six schools PODs. This "UNITED FOOTBALL CONFERENCE" would still be a step behind the BIG 10 and SEC but distance themselves from GROUP of 5 conferences. When the smoke clears we will have divisions similar to high school. The BIG 10, SEC, and United Football Conference would be Division 1, Group of 5 conferences would be 1A, and 1AA would remain the same. Just a very old man's opinion.

[keith]

Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water!

Assuming the B1G stays with its East/West setup, it's now unbalanced with 9 in the west and 7 in the east.  Does the B1G really want to destroy the PAC12, a conference they have a long history and relationship with, by taking more?  Who knows.  What happened to the talk of Kansas going to the B1G?  Do they move and take a spot in the east leaving one chair open for ND if the B1G can convince them to join?  Does the MW get picked over by the Big12 and PAC12?  Does the Big12 just look to replace Kansas in this scenario or expand to 16 or more (strength in numbers)?

If you are Aresco, what do you do now?  Didn't AF and CSU want to dip into the Texas market at one time?  Does he make a push to see if they are willing to jump to the AAC?  Or just AF (or both) and see if Army wants to stay independent or find a conference home and lock up the service academies?  Or does he wait to see what shakes out?

It's certainly and interesting time for college football.

[Dannymacfan]

8 hours ago, Arkstfan said:

Toddling off to bed and at this moment my outcome rankings from most to least likely.

1. B1G adds two more, some mix of Stanford, Oregon, Washington, the Arizona schools or Colorado. I think most likely is Oregon and either Stanford or Washington. PAC-8 makes a hard play to get 8 of the Big XII to defect. If unsuccessful congratulations SDSU, Boise, UNLV and if BYU says no, probably Hawaii.

2. B1G holds at 16, PAC-10 probably isn’t looking to join Big XII and vice versa unless someone gets panicky. If no panic, SDSU and Boise probably get the nod.

3. B1G adds four more. PAC-6 is reeling and Big XII probably just absorbs them unless there’s a big measure of regret in Big XII over expansion.

Why does Cal seem to be the odd man out?  I was impressed with them whence we played them.

[Coach Andy Mac]

An industry source indicated to Dodd that the feeling among industry insiders is that the new-look Big 12 would be a more desirable conference than a Pac-12 without USC and UCLA.
 

Link: https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/usc-and-ucla-to-big-ten-pac-12-faces-tough-questions-uncertain-future-amid-conference-realignment-raid/amp/

[rcade]

Is the endgame here two superconferences that become the NFL of college football, receiving so much TV money that the everybody else is the G8?

I'm writing this comment from Gainesville, Florida, right next to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. In an era where conferences matter, Texas coming here as a conference opponent of Florida seems like a big deal. But it feels like conferences don't actually matter any more. The superconferences feel more like a new football subdivision.

[UNT Texas Hooligan]

8 minutes ago, rcade said:

Is the endgame here two superconferences that become the NFL of college football, receiving so much TV money that the everybody else is the G8?

I'm writing this comment from Gainesville, Florida, right next to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. In an era where conferences matter, Texas coming here as a conference opponent of Florida seems like a big deal. But it feels like conferences don't actually matter any more. The superconferences feel more like a new football subdivision.

That's what I was thinking. NFL Lite competing for National Championships and TV exposure/money every year while everyone else is picking up scraps.