USC and UCLA to the Big 10

[UNT Texas Hooligan]

12 hours ago, Green Otaku said:

Lol looks really logical. 

 

 

That'll be one hell of a trip going from LA to NJ and back. Just a cool 12 hour round trip, makes perfect $en$e. 

[Arkstfan]

1 hour ago, Dannymacfan said:

Why does Cal seem to be the odd man out?  I was impressed with them whence we played them.

Cal doesn’t have the national recognition of the others and historically admin has shackled athletics 

[TheColonyEagle]

13 hours ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

Where are they going to go? It’s starting to look like the Big 10 and SEC are going to expand to 20. The PAC 12 is cooked and I think the ACC will face a similar fate. If the Big 12 is smart they’ll pick up the leftovers and have a conference of 20 schools that’s strong enough to get a seat (albeit a small one) at the table with the SEC and Big 10. 
Anyone currently not a P5 or about to be isn’t moving up. Schools like SMU and Memphis are stuck. At this point their best bet is to stay in the American and help them become the 4th best conference. Who knows, maybe our new P2 or P3 overlords will throw us peasants a bone and allow our conference champion to compete in their new expanded tournament. 

[Arkstfan]

1 hour ago, Coach Andy Mac said:

An industry source indicated to Dodd that the feeling among industry insiders is that the new-look Big 12 would be a more desirable conference than a Pac-12 without USC and UCLA.
 

Link: https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/usc-and-ucla-to-big-ten-pac-12-faces-tough-questions-uncertain-future-amid-conference-realignment-raid/amp/

Why would the pre-Texas departure Big XII schools want to be in a Big XII that adds PAC schools AND the four expansion schools when they can go west and align with those PAC schools and none or not all of the expansion schools?

[Green Otaku]

3 minutes ago, Arkstfan said:

Why would the pre-Texas departure Big XII schools want to be in a Big XII that adds PAC schools AND the four expansion schools when they can go west and align with those PAC schools and none or not all of the expansion schools?

 

It may not be the end all, but I'm sure it's a consideration. Exit fees. Both paying them and receiving what OU/Texas owe. 

[UNTcrazy727]

44 minutes ago, Arkstfan said:

Why would the pre-Texas departure Big XII schools want to be in a Big XII that adds PAC schools AND the four expansion schools when they can go west and align with those PAC schools and none or not all of the expansion schools?

Because they probably won't have a choice. Based on what a lot of people are saying the Big 10 isn't done raiding the Pac 12. If Oregon, Washington, and Stanford leave then the Pac 12 is dead. The remaining teams will be fighting to join the Big 12 and the losers will be left to merge with the MWC. 

[untjim1995]

3 hours ago, wardly said:

 I think a lot depends upon if the Big 10 adds Washington and Oregon. If so, and the PAC 12 is down to 8 universities , then a merger with the Big 12 seems like the best move available. If not, then poaching SDSU, Boise State, and one or two others from the MWC might be the way to go. This would be similar to Big 12 reloading after loss of Texas and Oklahoma. However, since we are now looking at the creation of two Super Conferences, the Big 10 and SEC, and the probable destruction of the ACC, the only option to remain one of the BIG BOYS appears to be a merger . The combined PAC 12 with 10 teams and BIG 12 with 12 programs after the departure of Texas and Oklahoma could add two more schools and have 24 teams and two divisions of 12 or 4 six schools PODs. This "UNITED FOOTBALL CONFERENCE" would still be a step behind the BIG 10 and SEC but distance themselves from GROUP of 5 conferences. When the smoke clears we will have divisions similar to high school. The BIG 10, SEC, and United Football Conference would be Division 1, Group of 5 conferences would be 1A, and 1AA would remain the same. Just a very old man's opinion.

I have predicted this for about 10 years now. The G8 will be some good schools that don't make the top shelf--we are in that group. We are not in a setup with ACU, SFA, McNeese State, or Northwestern State. This isn't 1983 bad. Its a level of play we can compete at and work toward being a national player with schools that have similar budgets, facilities, name recognition, and tradition.

[SMU2006]

Finebaum confirming my suspicions about Clemson, FSU, Miami, and UNC to the SEC.

The race to 20 is on b/w the SEC and B1G.

[NT80]

It's big-dogs and little-dogs.  Plus sellers vs buyers.

The PAC12 leftovers are in panic mode, but actually they should by buyers now (expansion with BYU, Texas Tech, Ok St, K-State, KU) instead of sellers (merging into Big12).  

Likewise the new Big12 will see options for adding value in cherry-picking.  An all-out merger would be more of a geographic mess.   

It will all depend on if the SEC and B1G are truly content at 16 members or expand further.

 

[SMU2006]

2 minutes ago, NT80 said:

It's big-dogs and little-dogs.  Plus sellers vs buyers.

The PAC12 leftovers are in panic mode, but actually they should by buyers now (expansion with BYU, Texas Tech, Ok St, K-State, KU) instead of sellers (merging into Big12).  

Likewise the new Big12 will see options for adding value in cherry-picking.  An all-out merger would be more of a geographic mess.   

It will all depend on if the SEC and B1G are truly content at 16 members or expand further.

 

The B1G and SEC will go to 20 minimum.  Likely 24.

[El Paso Eagle]

41 minutes ago, UNTcrazy727 said:

Because they probably won't have a choice. Based on what a lot of people are saying the Big 10 isn't done raiding the Pac 12. If Oregon, Washington, and Stanford leave then the Pac 12 is dead. The remaining teams will be fighting to join the Big 12 and the losers will be left to merge with the MWC. 

Question to ponder..... Would Cal join a league with Texas schools?

[SMU2006]

 

[NT80]

21 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

The B1G and SEC will go to 20 minimum.  Likely 24.

Why? 

If it is truly TV money driving this, then those last 4 schools added will need to bring more value per school than the previous 4 did, otherwise there is no need for them.

[keith]

Here are a couple slides from Altimore/Collins regarding the possibility of the PAC-5 (USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford and Washington) leaving the PAC12 conference.

"...it would be unlikely to see 1 or 2 do it alone, or to split city pairs". 

"With so many trade-offs and risks for 1 / 2 of the Pac-5 to join a Midwest conference, it would be strategically questionable on an enterprise level."

 

Edited July 1, 2022 by keith

[NT80]

12 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

 

BYU isn't off the table.  If the New Pac12 will be better than the new Big12... BYU can just switch.   That's the problem now, no school is committed to anybody for any set time.

And sorry, I know you're a SMUt fan, but they just don't bring any value to a conference anymore... like they once did when they won while cheating in the Dickerson days. 

Edited July 1, 2022 by NT80

[SMU2006]

5 minutes ago, NT80 said:

BYU isn't off the table.  If the New Pac12 will be better than the new Big12... BYU can just switch.   That's the problem now, no school is committed to anybody for any set time.

And sorry, I know you're an SMUt fan, but they just don't bring any value to a conference anymore... like they once did when they won while cheating in the Dickerson days. 

PAC desperately needs exposure in the CST to survive.  Academically it fits well with the PAC.  From a football perspective we've been ranked in the Top 20 in each of the last three seasons and will break ground on a $100m renovation and expansion of Ford.

Tons of PAC alums live in DFW.  Is it a slam dunk?  No.  But I'd wager SMU is higher on the food chain for the PAC than Baylor, UH, Tech and the other academic space cadets of the Big 12.

[El Paso Eagle]

5 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

PAC desperately needs exposure in the CST to survive.  Academically it fits well with the PAC.  From a football perspective we've been ranked in the Top 20 in each of the last three seasons and will break ground on a $100m renovation and expansion of Ford.

Tons of PAC alums live in DFW.  Is it a slam dunk?  No.  But I'd wager SMU is higher on the food chain for the PAC than Baylor, UH, Tech and the other academic space cadets of the Big 12.

I'm sure they would pass on existing P5 schools for SMU if given the chance for the schools you mentioned. Before SMU fans once again anoint themselves the most desired, they might want to see what is left of the PAC. If Oregon, Washington, and Stanford leave it seems likely the remaining schools would much ratter merge with the Big12 than rebuild from current G5's 

[SMU2006]

PAC officially exploring expansion.  Not that it was ever in doubt after USC/UCLA departures but they are clearly going on the offensive.

 

 

[keith]

14 minutes ago, SMU2006 said:

PAC desperately needs exposure in the CST to survive.  Academically it fits well with the PAC.  From a football perspective we've been ranked in the Top 20 in each of the last three seasons and will break ground on a $100m renovation and expansion of Ford.

Tons of PAC alums live in DFW.  Is it a slam dunk?  No.  But I'd wager SMU is higher on the food chain for the PAC than Baylor, UH, Tech and the other academic space cadets of the Big 12.

I think it would be a toss-up between Baylor and SMU.  SMU grades slightly higher than Baylor on the academic front, but from an all sports success, spending, etc. Baylor is ahead.  I think either school may have the same problem that BYU might have.  Let's face it, the west coast leans to the left politically.  Does the PAC## want right leaning, religion-affiliated institutions as part of the conference makeup?  I think they would probably consider that as part of the "fit" equation.    

[SMU2006]

2 minutes ago, keith said:

I think it would be a toss-up between Baylor and SMU.  SMU grades slightly higher than Baylor on the academic front, but from an all sports success, spending, etc. Baylor is ahead.  I think either school may have the same problem that BYU might have.  Let's face it, the west coast leans to the left politically.  Does the PAC## want right leaning, religion-affiliated institutions as part of the conference makeup?  I think they would probably consider that as part of the "fit" equation.    

Nearly half of the SMU student body is from California.  I don't really worry about the fit.

Further, SMU's church affiliation is far less relevant to its academic mission than BYU or Baylor.  

Edited July 1, 2022 by SMU2006
adding more text

[El Paso Eagle]

 

 

[Wag Tag]

Again the left over PAC goes to the Big12. It appears that conference size and travel distance doesn’t  matter. PAC and MWC do need CST for more exposure. 

[Mike Jackson]

15 hours ago, SMU2006 said:

Their AD just said an hour ago that the future of remaining independent in the current landscape is going to be virtually impossible.

If the B1G adds Notre Dame as a full member then all hell is going to break loose.

I’m listening to the Talking Heads on TV sell this nonsense to us, I am in a scorched  mood.  I think it’s much worse than people realize because they don’t understand college football and its appeal.  Regional rivalries is the thing that sets college football apart from pro leagues.  Yes no matter what the set up is when the biggest brands play each other is good for ratings.  You don’t need a conference to make those things happen.  But eventually alumni and fans who don’t have a great connections to these elite brand schools are going to lose interest in watching their games.  So let’s take the top 25 revenue college football brands out there and put them in a conference.  As passionate as college football fan as I am, I am not watching any of the games except the classic rivalries and Championship games.  After all these movements are completed, and the networks start seeing the limited return on investment for all these other small brand in conference matchups they are going to adjust their next contract offerings accordingly.  
 

Is anyone really excited to see USC versus Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue, Northwestern, Michigan State, Illinois, Rutgers, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa and Maryland?  When USC gets Back to playing at a level that it should be, they will be beating all those teams I listed 80% of the time.  So what’s the appeal in watching them?  There is no natural geographic rivalry.  College football will not work as some kind of quasi semi-pro league without tradition propping up interest.  There will always be games but very soon the only the extreme elite dominating brands will have more than 30,000 fans at their games and significant TV viewing numbers  consistently.  
 

I see the bowl woeful bowl game numbers as a predictor of what the vast majority of regular season games will look like that aren’t the classic rivalies or 2 top 25 brand playing each other.  Same phenomenon we saw with the expansion Of postseason conference tournaments and the NCAA Tournament field.  Regular season NCAA basketball might as well be dead.  If you have a magical game against one of the big brands and have a decent season: “congratulations Northwestern”  Ohio State, USC, Michigan or Penn State is playing in the conference  championship game even if you beat one of them head to head and y’all have the same record.  Now go and take your conference media rights check and go play in the corner.

 

[Rudy]

On 6/30/2022 at 2:10 PM, meanrob said:

This isn’t realignment, this is two conferences consolidating assets. This sounds dumb but there’s a possibility schools get dumped out of the BiG/SEC at some point. 

Its going to happen.  The elite of the elite are the only ones with a real shot at the title already.  Eventually they will form their own league with 20 or so teams, then everyone left out will have to reorganize a new FBS/D1. 

[Hunter Green]

On 6/30/2022 at 1:06 PM, El Paso Eagle said:

Prediction sure to be wrong - Big12 and Pac12 will merge 😈

It's a great idea.