Big 12 to expand again?

Arkstfan · March 30, 2022

One thing Karl Marx nailed correctly is that in unfettered capitalism wealth continues to concentrate in fewer and fewer hands. He was wrong about the fix because he didn’t understand human nature.

Right now we are seeing it play out in Division I. We went from the NCAA TV contract to the CFA V contract, to every conference for themselves. The everyone for themselves gave us the BCS and the wealthy being ACC, Big Ten, Big Twelve, PAC-10 and SEC, the Big East was an AQ league but the gap between Big East and rest of AQ financially was as big as the gap between Big East and CUSA and MWC was.

Now we are moving into an era where the Big Ten and SEC have FU money, ACC and PAC-12 have crazy money. Then we have Big 12 and then on down the ladder MWC and AAC, then Sun Belt, then MAC, then CUSA. Oh and back up there between Big 12 and MWC/AAC you have Big East (as long as new deal comes in as good).

The top of the pack is pulling far away and the spread between the lower rungs of the ladder is getting smaller.

ACC and PAC-12 can enjoy pulling away from Big 12 but they are cut off from the wealth SEC and Big Ten are going to have. PAC-12 has no viable expansion options that don’t disrupt the stability of the league. In region you’ve got Boise which academically is no place close to PAC-12 members and not as broad a program. Nevada would fit(ish) academically but they are lacking the fan attention, UNLV is a great market but not especially good in what matters and not a fit academically. San Diego State won’t be on radar the UC schools don’t want to add a Cal-State and Stanford and USC certainly don’t consider them peers. Then you’ve got New Mexico who nudges under the wire to fit in academically but tiny market and not great in anything that matters. Like UNLV their hoops peak is in the past.

After that you are going into the Central time zone and ridiculous travel and discontent over game start times.

The ACC is second banana to SEC and B1G in too many places and too many low interest schools to match the big two.

Throw on top of that we have the demographic gap coming in 2025 when the number of 18 year olds drops and dependence on student fees is going to be a hole in the boat for many schools. The demographic gap is going to force wages up and make skipping college appear to be a good choice driving enrollment down even more. Lot of misery ahead for colleges.

Makes aligning with the right group more important. Wouldn’t be shocked if travel isn’t a factor in Big 12 decision making. USF to ease some of the non-revenue sports going to UCF. Memphis is in a great geographic location. A DFW team won’t appeal to TCU but might make the others happy. Tulsa if they quit tripping over their own feet could make sense. Taking a flier on Air Force or Colorado State to ease the trip to BYU could work. Boise would have to excite TV to get them to bite off that travel.

NTSU52 · March 30, 2022

2 hours ago, Victorygreen04 said:

I like the way you think. Im praying for success in major sports over the next 4-5 years. A couple of conference championships in football would be amazing and maybe a NY6 bowl. Am I delusional?

Maybe a smidge but we can hope