Keeping my hopes up!

BigWillie · March 12, 2022

I know the site isn't a big name, but an interesting take.

The last two in are VCU and North Texas. VCU's resume average of 31.5 would be unprecedented to leave out and despite a resume that doesn't blow you away, I still think their performance with Ace Baldwin is enough coupled with the resume for inclusion. North Texas looks stunningly similar to 2019 Belmont, who made the field. Nearly identical NET, Q1+2 records, and Q3 losses. It would certainly be in Dayton, but the Mean Green have a tourney type profile.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/03/saturday-morning-madness.html?m=1

greenminer · March 12, 2022

I think we can look at all these bracket theories and NET/KenPom numbers, but do a little bit of legwork on your own and you will get a much clearer view:

Wrap your mind around how many at-large bids are given, then look at the teams that are going to be considered. Ask yourself: of these remaining X slots, do we honestly look better to the committee than the remaining options?

Having said that, who are we in contention with for the remaining at-large bids? What are their resumes?

your link provides some of the contenders:

Indiana, Xavier, VCU, North Texas, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, Dayton

NorthTexasSportsNetwork · March 12, 2022

Here’s what set us back, and I hate to say it, is Buffalo and UTEP. Like others have said, you win these games, you’re playing AT LEAST in Dayton for the first four on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Mean Green Matt · March 12, 2022

We ultimately ended up with one too many losses.

Aquila_Viridis · March 12, 2022

... you mean for the NIT?

Andrew · March 12, 2022

24 minutes ago, BigWillie said:

I know the site isn't a big name, but an interesting take.

The last two in are VCU and North Texas. VCU's resume average of 31.5 would be unprecedented to leave out and despite a resume that doesn't blow you away, I still think their performance with Ace Baldwin is enough coupled with the resume for inclusion. North Texas looks stunningly similar to 2019 Belmont, who made the field. Nearly identical NET, Q1+2 records, and Q3 losses. It would certainly be in Dayton, but the Mean Green have a tourney type profile.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/03/saturday-morning-madness.html?m=1

Buffalo and UTEP games kill us.

-I really hope they looo at how competitive and close every game we have played this season has been. We lost 6 games by an average of less than 6 points each. We would at least keep any game close in the dance and that’s good for business right…. Right NCAA selection committee…

greenminer · March 12, 2022

6 minutes ago, NorthTexasSportsNetwork said:

Here’s what set us back, and I hate to say it, is Buffalo and UTEP. Like others have said, you win these games, you’re playing AT LEAST in Dayton for the first four on Tuesday/Wednesday.

We win one of those, and we could have lost yesterday without seeing Lunardi spouting about the worst loss.

Win both of them and I suspect we are about as locked-in as an AtLarge can be - regardless of CUSA tournament.

BigWillie · March 12, 2022

8 minutes ago, greenminer said:

I think we can look at all these bracket theories and NET/KenPom numbers, but do a little bit of legwork on your own and you will get a much clearer view:

Wrap your mind around how many at-large bids are given, then look at the teams that are going to be considered. Ask yourself: of these remaining X slots, do we honestly look better to the committee than the remaining options?

Having said that, who are we in contention with for the remaining at-large bids? What are their resumes?

your link provides some of the contenders:

Indiana, Xavier, VCU, North Texas, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, Dayton

Completely understand your point. I did a little legwork and looking at that list of teams, I don't see how we do not look better than Dayton. Dayton has 3 losses in Quad 4. You could also say that VCU is very, very close to us in terms of Quad W/L. Obviously there are other factors, but just saying it really should be right on the edge.

greenminer · March 12, 2022

11 minutes ago, BigWillie said:

Completely understand your point. I did a little legwork and looking at that list of teams, I don't see how we do not look better than Dayton. Dayton has 3 losses in Quad 4. You could also say that VCU is very, very close to us in terms of Quad W/L. Obviously there are other factors, but just saying it really should be right on the edge.

A couple more dynamics come to mind:

NEGATIVE: they're probably gonna look at the UTEP loss, too, and acknowledge that we finished 1 for our last 3 games. That doesn't hold up well if Dayton and/or VCU did better in their tournaments.

POSITIVE? Do they recognize our Purdue win from last year? It's not part of the math numbers, but is there room for consideration of our last postseason outing?

CMJ · March 12, 2022

Dayton also has the huge win over Kansas to put them in consideration. That's way better than any single win we have.

RiseUNT · March 12, 2022

1 minute ago, CMJ said:

Dayton also has the huge win over Kansas to put them in consideration. That's way better than any single win we have.

4 quad 4 losses ?

Edited March 12, 2022 by RiseUNT

BigWillie · March 12, 2022

Just now, greenminer said:

A couple more dynamics come to mind:

NEGATIVE: they're probably gonna look at the UTEP loss, too, and acknowledge that we finished 1 for our last 3 games. That doesn't hold up well if Dayton and/or VCU did better in their tournaments.

POSITIVE? Do they recognize our Purdue win from last year? It's not part of the math numbers, but is there room for consideration of our last postseason outing?

I can see those two points. In looking at ESPNs bracket, they have Wyoming making it and they look almost identical to us on paper. Also, they lost in their Semifinal.

One other thought. If LA Tech wins the CUSA championship and gets the automatic bid, how does that look to the committee? Seems like it could possibly help some!

If you can't tell, my green googles haven't come off since our loss and I know I might be grasping at air here.

greenminer · March 12, 2022

1 minute ago, RiseUNT said:

4 quad 4 losses ?

ouch! I mean, how does this coexist with a KU win?

BigWillie · March 12, 2022

2 minutes ago, CMJ said:

Dayton also has the huge win over Kansas to put them in consideration. That's way better than any single win we have.

Yes, I saw that too. And I could say that we could look at the glass half empty and say Kansas had an off night. Unfortunately we don't get the same with our loss. To Rise's point though, I think 3 Quad 4 losses outweigh that.

Cr1028 · March 12, 2022

Edited March 12, 2022 by Cr1028

RiseUNT · March 12, 2022

34 minutes ago, Cr1028 said:

For Dayton? They just lost to Richmond.

Also every time I think the title says “trying to keep my hoes up”.

planes trains and automobiles GIF

BigWillie · March 12, 2022

4 minutes ago, RiseUNT said:

For Dayton? They just lost to Richmond.

Also every time I think the title says “trying to keep my hoes up”.

Well.... I do love you guys.

Mean Green Matt · March 13, 2022

This is from one of the higher ranked bracket guys. Every time I try to embed it doesn’t work so we will see if this does.

Mean Green Matt · March 13, 2022

NT80 · March 13, 2022

Would a La Tech win tonight over UAB help our case at all for NCAA Tourney?

Or are we probably out regardless of score tonight?

BigWillie · March 13, 2022

6 minutes ago, NT80 said:

Would a La Tech win tonight over UAB help our case at all for NCAA Tourney?

Or are we probably out regardless of score tonight?

That's what I was wondering earlier today. I would think they would consider it.

Mean Green Matt · March 13, 2022

8 minutes ago, NT80 said:

Would a La Tech win tonight over UAB help our case at all for NCAA Tourney?

Or are we probably out regardless of score tonight?

I think we are probably out when all is said and done. But agonizingly, I think it’s a situation where if any single one of our losses was a win we would be in.