At Large Bid Scenarios

[Talon90]

15 minutes ago, GMG_Dallas said:

We aren't on the same side of the bracket as UAB right now.... as of right now, we'll play:

Winner of E4 Charlotte and W5 Rice

Winner of E2 Western Kentucky and W3 LA Tech (assuming la tech wins their first game)

And then the final against whoever comes out the other side. If the highest seeds meet in the semi finals, we'll play the final against the winner of UAB and MTSU assuming we get there as well.

 

IF that's how it stays, I'll take it!

[wardly]

Today Joe Lunardi has CUSA as a one bid conference with UNT as 12 seed playing Alabama in Portland. SMU is nowhere to be found but TCU gets an at large bid.

[greenminer]

28 minutes ago, wardly said:

Today Joe Lunardi has CUSA as a one bid conference with UNT as 12 seed playing Alabama in Portland. SMU is nowhere to be found but TCU gets an at large bid.

I'm starting to believe Lunardi is very set in his views, and it will take extended winning ways to sway him

[wardly]

I don't know about Joe, but I have yet to see anyone predicting 2 bids for CUSA.

[GreenN'walinsVet]

Just now, wardly said:

I don't know about Joe, but I have yet to see anyone predicting 2 bids for CUSA.

As long as UNT is the favorite to win CUSA you will not....We are the only team left with an outside shot at an at large bid, so until we stop being projected as the CUSA auto qualifier there will not be 2 teams in the CUSA

[MrAlien]

What is the rational for giving TCU an at large bid?  A lot of bracket projections seem to have them as a 9-11 seed, even though they are outside the top 50 in NET and have a sub .500 record in conference

[wardly]

I don't have a clue.

[Censored by Laurie]

4 hours ago, wardly said:

I don't know about Joe, but I have yet to see anyone predicting 2 bids for CUSA.

I’ve also not read anyone give the Ohio Valley two bids, but if Murray State doesn’t win their conference tourney I can all but assure you they’re getting an at-large bid. 
 

Before UAB hit a little skid they were being mentioned as a bubble team, assuming NT was the AQ. 
 

The resume is there. I think we would just need 20-ish other conference tournaments going exactly as predicted to make it safe. 

[wardly]

23 hours ago, wardly said:

Today Joe Lunardi has CUSA as a one bid conference with UNT as 12 seed playing Alabama in Portland. SMU is nowhere to be found but TCU gets an at large bid.

Today Joe moved UNT vs Alabama to Chicago.

[TheNewEra]

Up to 38 in Net. If we beat La Tech it moves at least a few spots. I think winning the next 3 moves us to 30 minimum in NET. No way we get left out if we’re that high right?

[greenminer]

2 hours ago, TheNewEra said:

Up to 38 in Net. If we beat La Tech it moves at least a few spots. I think winning the next 3 moves us to 30 minimum in NET. No way we get left out if we’re that high right?

"no way" implies some kind of rule or guarantee.

The NET rankings are not guarantees, but a 38 feels about as safe as you can be.  @Censored by Laurie said a day or two ago that it would take several big upsets in conference tournies to push us out.  Our resume is great.

[MeanMag]

Reposting this link: https://bracketologists.com/visualizations/net-kenpom-scatter

The closer we get to the bottom left - the more "no way" becomes true.

[PlummMeanGreen]

I’m not too crazy with P5’s getting their 5’th place teams in the Big Dance.

 Stop selections at 1’st thru 4’th place finishers in all conferences; that is, if their 3’rd & 4’th place finishers are worthy.

🦅

Edited February 26, 2022 by PlummMeanGreen

[CMJ]

9 minutes ago, PlummMeanGreen said:

I’m not too crazy with P5’s getting their 5’th place teams in the Big Dance.

 Stop selections at 1’st thru 4’th place finishers in all conferences; that is, if their 3’rd & 4’th place finishers are worthy.

🦅

That doesn't work out either really.  There were years when the Big East, Big 10, or ACC had over five teams in the Top 25 rankings.

 

I do think a team should have a winning record in league play though.

[Green Lantern]

4 hours ago, greenminer said:

"no way" implies some kind of rule or guarantee.

The NET rankings are not guarantees, but a 38 feels about as safe as you can be.  @Censored by Laurie said a day or two ago that it would take several big upsets in conference tournies to push us out.  Our resume is great.

Read that since NET has been instituted that no team ranked 41 or lower has been left out of the NCAA tourney field.

[MeanMag]

49 minutes ago, PlummMeanGreen said:

I’m not too crazy of P5’s getting their 5’th place teams in the Big Dance.

 Stop selections at 1’st thru 4’th place finishers in all conferences

If you are talking about TCU - There is a real possibility they win 1 game the rest of the regular season, maybe another in the conference tournament. They would be 17-13 overall and 6-12 in conference before their conference tournament where they will likely add one more loss and another win if they are lucky. They have no bad loss, and a couple of pretty good wins.

Do they deserve a better seed because they have more opportunities to win and lose against highly ranked teams? I don't know - for as much as we think we get punished for being in a conference with some really bad teams, they might start to think they get punished for playing the best teams in the country twice a year.

I will tell you this: If you were to seed the tournament by KenPom and Net Ratings - I think you'd get as close to perfect as you could.

Edited February 26, 2022 by MeanMag

[GMG_Dallas]

29 minutes ago, MeanMag said:

If you are talking about TCU - There is a real possibility they win 1 game the rest of the regular season, maybe another in the conference tournament. They would be 17-13 overall and 6-12 in conference before their conference tournament where they will likely add one more loss and another win if they are lucky. They have no bad loss, and a couple of pretty good wins.

Do they deserve a better seed because they have more opportunities to win and lose against highly ranked teams? I don't know - for as much as we think we get punished for being in a conference with some really bad teams, they might start to think they get punished for playing the best teams in the country twice a year.

I will tell you this: If you were to seed the tournament by KenPom and Net Ratings - I think you'd get as close to perfect as you could.

I'd rather see a team like Belmont at 24-6 get in than a Michigan, Indiana, or OU who are all slightly above .500 in overall record and below .500 in conference (except for Michigan at 9-7). Doesn't matter to me if they're in a strong conference when you have teams with around 25 wins being left out. I understand taking into account strength of schedule but at some point winning needs to carry more weight than losing. If the records are close, sure, look at resume. When we're talking a difference of nearly 10 in the win column, take the wins. 

[PlummMeanGreen]

2 hours ago, GMG_Dallas said:

I'd rather see a team like Belmont at 24-6 get in than a Michigan, Indiana, or OU who are all slightly above .500 in overall record and below .500 in conference (except for Michigan at 9-7). Doesn't matter to me if they're in a strong conference when you have teams with around 25 wins being left out. I understand taking into account strength of schedule but at some point winning needs to carry more weight than losing. If the records are close, sure, look at resume. When we're talking a difference of nearly 10 in the win column, take the wins. 

Always needs to be a spot or 2 for a Cinderella?  The NCAA powers need not screw that role up, too.  
 

[greenminer]

6 hours ago, Green Lantern said:

Read that since NET has been instituted that no team ranked 41 or lower has been left out of the NCAA tourney field.

Yes, I did too.  But this is not contractual or a guarantee.  It IS possible for it to happen.

Let's just win out and not leave it to chance.

[outoftown]

Gonna root for Wichita State over Memphis. Would be a 2-fer. Helpong NTs NET and potentially pushing them back to quad 1, and hurting a team that is squarely on the bubble in the process.

[Mean Green Matt]

Big win for TCU tonight over Texas Tech. 

[Mean Green Matt]

Jerry Palm now has us in at large territory on the 11 line. 

[GMG_Dallas]

38 minutes ago, Mean Green Matt said:

Jerry Palm now has us in at large territory on the 11 line. 

Not that he has any any say, but one of the commentators on stadium last night said he believes we'll be in regardless of what happens in Frisco.

I know people crap on stadium but the reason I like them is I feel like their staff does their homework. They treat UNT, LA Tech, and other mid-majors/G5 the way ESPN treats high-majors/P5. It's nice to hear on national broadcasts. I've never had an issue with their streams either. 

[Green Lantern]

On 2/26/2022 at 2:36 AM, greenminer said:

Yes, I did too.  But this is not contractual or a guarantee.  It IS possible for it to happen.

Let's just win out and not leave it to chance.

We agree. If there ever was a team that the committee would readjust the criteria for selection - you know it’d end up being us.

Plus the only way to keep our NET below the 41 threshold is to keep winning every game. Unfortunately, no margin for error.

 

[Mean Green Matt]

1 minute ago, Green Lantern said:

We agree. If there ever was a team that the committee would readjust the criteria for selection - you know it’d end up being us.

Plus the only way to keep our NET below the 41 threshold is to keep winning every game. Unfortunately, no margin for error.

 

I think it depends on who we lose to. If we don’t drop a game until the CUSA semis I think we are in.