At Large Bid Scenarios

TheNewEra · February 22, 2022

This is might be getting into the weeds, but what would it take for us to get an At Large Bid?

I think if we win out in the remainder of the regular season we get in regardless of tournament result. That would have us inside of 35-30 range of NET & 23-30 AP poll range.

I also think if we lost to La Tech Saturday & then lost in CUSA final we would get in but might need outside help.

Do y’all see any other way the committee gets us in? It goes without saying let’s just win the next 7 games but if we don’t, what would happen?

glick1980 · February 22, 2022

1 hour ago, TheNewEra said:

This is might be getting into the weeds, but what would it take for us to get an At Large Bid?

I think if we win out in the remainder of the regular season we get in regardless of tournament result. That would have us inside of 35-30 range of NET & 23-30 AP poll range.

I also think if we lost to La Tech Saturday & then lost in CUSA final we would get in but might need outside help.

Do y’all see any other way the committee gets us in? It goes without saying let’s just win the next 7 games but if we don’t, what would happen?

We need to win our four remaining regular season games. If we do not win the conference tournament, it would be best to lose to UAB in the championship game. We cannot lose any Q3 or Q4 games and get an at large bid. It would also help for Wichita State to get back into the top 75 so that counts as a Q1 win.

golfingomez · February 22, 2022

i think we may need to start an 'At-Large Bid' megathread

NorthTexasSportsNetwork · February 22, 2022

Win out, which could get you in the top 30 for the AP poll and NET, win the first 2 games of the tournament, and lose by like 1 to UAB in the championship. It really has to be UAB because it would be against a top 50 team.

Even with that, it would be a stretch because who knows what the committee wants. I’d rather just win out through the championship and not have to worry about Selection Sunday, that already makes me nervous.

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jdennis82 · February 22, 2022

I should be embarrassed by how much I've played around with Torvik's "Teamcast" this year playing out various win/loss scenarios. Have fun...

https://www.barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?team=North+Texas&year=2022

meangreen11 · February 22, 2022

The latest projection I have seen has us as a 12 seed against Texas in Portland: https://www.bloggingthebracket.com/2022/2/22/22943882/bracketology-2022-college-basketball-mens-ncaa-tournament-projection-selection-committee-top-16

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MrAlien · February 22, 2022

Even if they win out, I dont see that moving them into the top 30 in NET because the strength of those opponents is not that good. They need other schools to drop, in particular Wyoming and San Diego, because the mountain west is looking at a 4 bid conference. as for the AAC, they need to stay ahead of SMU and Memphis, and would be great if Wichita St. can get an upset against one of those.

RiseUNT · February 22, 2022

13 minutes ago, MrAlien said:

Even if they win out, I dont see that moving them into the top 30 in NET because the strength of those opponents is not that good. They need other schools to drop, in particular Wyoming and San Diego, because the mountain west is looking at a 4 bid conference. as for the AAC, they need to stay ahead of SMU and Memphis, and would be great if Wichita St. can get an upset against one of those.

They?

Cr1028 · February 22, 2022

We need to win the CUSA tournament, period.

CMJ · February 22, 2022

Only sure way in. Anything else is leaving it up to chance.

GMG_Dallas · February 22, 2022

1 hour ago, jdennis82 said:

I should be embarrassed by how much I've played around with Torvik's "Teamcast" this year playing out various win/loss scenarios. Have fun...

https://www.barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?team=North+Texas&year=2022

I was really thinking we could get an at- large by winning out and a conference tourney loss but I'm not so sure looking at that website. Lots of teams with net rankings in the 40-50 range being left out. Basically, half the spots go to conference tournament champions. 20 ish spots will go to teams ranked in the top 30 who didn't win their conference tournament. We really need each conference leader to handle business in their tournaments. No room for poorly ranked schools to pull off major tournament upsets or it hurts our at-large chance.

Like others have said, win and it's not a problem.

UNT Family Man · February 22, 2022

I’ve said in another threat that we would need to win out and lose a close one in the championship. That puts you at 26-5, regular season champs and tournament finalist. I think that gets you in as a 13 or maybe a 12 play-in game.

I would prefer to run the table and be 27-4— regular season champs, conference champs, 19 wins in a row (20 of the last 21) and with a few opportune wins/losses from the WCC/MWC/AAC then I think we could sneak out a 10 seed.

Edited February 23, 2022 by UNT Family Man

GMG_Dallas · February 22, 2022

15 minutes ago, UNT Family Man said:

I think we could sneak out a 10 seed.

Would not like that. The best round 1 and round 2 match-ups for Cinderella runs fall to seeds 11-14. Those seeds avoid seeds 1 and 2 until the sweet 16.

MeanMag · February 23, 2022

https://bracketologists.com/visualizations/net-kenpom-scatter

UNT Family Man · February 23, 2022

1 hour ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Would not like that. The best round 1 and round 2 match-ups for Cinderella runs fall to seeds 11-14. Those seeds avoid seeds 1 and 2 until the sweet 16.

Agreed, but a possible 10-7 match up in Ft Worth for round one would be sweet.

Censored by Laurie · February 23, 2022

2 hours ago, CMJ said:

Only sure way in. Anything else is leaving it up to chance.

agreed. the biggest reason I don't like getting too much into the weeds on at-large talk is that "chance", less the "chance" that our particular resume reflects on Selection Sunday, but more the "chance" of the week leading up to it can bring from other conferences and how much that plays a part in at-large bids.

most projections have us pretty consistently on the 12-line as an auto-qualifier.

our peer AQ schools are really Murray State, Loyola-Chicago, Chattanooga, Davidson...if these 4 win their conference bids, I'd feel really good about a conference runner-up UNT getting an at-large bid. things get a lot muddier if 1or 2 of these schools lose in their tournaments.

If all five (including UNT) don't win the auto-bid, that's five more at large considerations...and I'd put our resume and brand-recognition 4th on that list and odds get real thin.

then throw in if a power conference bubble team has a strong run in their tourney...say OU loses in the Big XII championship game...we're in real trouble.

it's a game at a time...and I think Grant is GREAT at keeping that kinda focus on his team.

outoftown · February 23, 2022

Somehow, when I look at the bracket matrix and project 4 regular season wins, I feel NT is in a very good spot to get in if it makes the semi finals of the tournament. The average in the brackets there is already in the middle between 11 and 12. Yes bid thieves would be a problem, but I still think NT would get in. And yes, I do think an NT that wins out is at least an 11 seed, more likely a 10.

One thing that could reaaally help though is if wichita State got its act together and managed to get back to top 75

Edited February 23, 2022 by outoftown

Greendylan · February 23, 2022

I'm probably more bullish than most, but I tend to think North Texas is in if we win out, regardless of what happens in the CUSA tournament. I'll go out on a limb and say we could even lose one of the remaining games and still have a shot, but that would very much depend on how the chips fall across other conferences.

Just a couple points to consider: Last season no team with a 41 or better NET ranking was left out. We are sitting at 38 at the moment, and were at 41 even before the UAB game. Also, the committee is always vocal about valuing teams that can win on the road--and we have the best road record in the nation. We also have statistically the best defense in the nation. I think North Texas is an intriguing team to a lot of people around the country.

But, as CBL pointed out, there are certainly events beyond our control (such as upsets in conference tournaments or big wins by other bubble teams) that could throw a monkey wrench into all of this. Still, if the field were to be announced today, I think we'd be in.

greenminer · February 23, 2022

49 minutes ago, Greendylan said:

I think North Texas is an intriguing team to a lot of people around the country.

Lunardi's tweet last week seems to suggest he's not buying in (yet). Not sure how much others are in line with his thinking right now.

Obv, we are in a much better position right now after our last 2 wins.

bstnsportsfan3 · February 23, 2022

3 hours ago, Greendylan said:

I'm probably more bullish than most, but I tend to think North Texas is in if we win out, regardless of what happens in the CUSA tournament. I'll go out on a limb and say we could even lose one of the remaining games and still have a shot, but that would very much depend on how the chips fall across other conferences.

Just a couple points to consider: Last season no team with a 41 or better NET ranking was left out. We are sitting at 38 at the moment, and were at 41 even before the UAB game. Also, the committee is always vocal about valuing teams that can win on the road--and we have the best road record in the nation. We also have statistically the best defense in the nation. I think North Texas is an intriguing team to a lot of people around the country.

But, as CBL pointed out, there are certainly events beyond our control (such as upsets in conference tournaments or big wins by other bubble teams) that could throw a monkey wrench into all of this. Still, if the field were to be announced today, I think we'd be in.

I disagree on this part I bolded. We would be absolutely done if we lost to Southern Miss or UTSA and probably even UTEP. Maybe La Tech would be ok but even that would make it a long long shot. We really need to win out. I do think we could lose in the CUSA semifinals to a team like WKU and get an at large

El Paso Eagle · February 23, 2022

1 hour ago, bstnsportsfan3 said:

I disagree on this part I bolded. We would be absolutely done if we lost to Southern Miss or UTSA and probably even UTEP. Maybe La Tech would be ok but even that would make it a long long shot. We really need to win out. I do think we could lose in the CUSA semifinals to a team like WKU and get an at large

Sadly in agreement. This time of the year they are looking for reasons to keep mid-majors out and find a way to put in as many teams as they can from Power conferences. Look no further than a 14-14 OU with only 4 conference wins still being considered.

glick1980 · February 23, 2022

2 hours ago, bstnsportsfan3 said:

I disagree on this part I bolded. We would be absolutely done if we lost to Southern Miss or UTSA and probably even UTEP. Maybe La Tech would be ok but even that would make it a long long shot. We really need to win out. I do think we could lose in the CUSA semifinals to a team like WKU and get an at large

Losing to LaTech would probably hurt us more than losing to UTEP. LaTech playing us at the Super Pit will be a Q3 loss while losing to UTEP in their building may be a Q2 loss.

wardly · February 23, 2022

23 hours ago, Cr1028 said:

We need to win the CUSA tournament, period.

We are a one bid conference . Period. UNT must win the CUSA tournament to secure a bid to the NCAA's. On our side of the bracket La. Tech and UAB will be trouble, on the other side MTSU and W.K. The Hilltoppers are playing good ball now and are my biggest concern besides UAB.

GMG_Dallas · February 23, 2022

34 minutes ago, wardly said:

We are a one bid conference . Period. UNT must win the CUSA tournament to secure a bid to the NCAA's. On our side of the bracket La. Tech and UAB will be trouble, on the other side MTSU and W.K. The Hilltoppers are playing good ball now and are my biggest concern besides UAB.

We aren't on the same side of the bracket as UAB right now.... as of right now, we'll play:

Winner of E4 Charlotte and W5 Rice

Winner of E2 Western Kentucky and W3 LA Tech (assuming la tech wins their first game)

And then the final against whoever comes out the other side. If the highest seeds meet in the semi finals, we'll play the final against the winner of UAB and MTSU assuming we get there as well.