3 Teams That Pose Threat to North Texas

Jonnyeagle · February 22, 2022

With just four-to-five games left to play — depending on the team — the Conference USA has a likely regular-season champion in North Texas. But things are very crowded behind the Mean Green.

With its win over UAB on the road on Saturday, North Texas moved to 20-4 on the season and 13-1 in conference play. The Mean Green have now won 12 conference games in a row, and have firmly positioned themselves in first place in the West.

Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee may sit in first in the C-USA East, but its seat is getting hotter every day. Despite being 10-3 in conference play, just 3.5 games separate first from fourth in the East.

So, what’s the big deal between where these teams finish if North Texas has run away with the conference regular-season title?

read more: https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaab/state-of-the-conference-usa-college-basketball-betting-report-3-teams-that-pose-threat-to-north-texas?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

CMJ · February 22, 2022

Their breakdown is more or less how I see things too. MTSU is hot, WKU has the most talent, and UAB showed they can beat us (and nearly did it again).

LA Tech is obviously in the mix too obviously, but they've struggled more recently.

untlynchka1 · February 22, 2022

1 hour ago, CMJ said:

Their breakdown is more or less how I see things too. MTSU is hot, WKU has the most talent, and UAB showed they can beat us (and nearly did it again).

LA Tech is obviously in the mix too obviously, but they've struggled more recently.

Wouldn’t unt and uab be in opposite brackets if they finish 1/2 in the west?
im guessing this is assuming uab finishes 3rd?

CMJ · February 22, 2022

16 minutes ago, untlynchka1 said:

Wouldn’t unt and uab be in opposite brackets if they finish 1/2 in the west?
im guessing this is assuming uab finishes 3rd?

It's not who will be the last four teams in the conference tournament, but who are the four that have a reasonable chance at winning it.

untlynchka1 · February 22, 2022

2 minutes ago, CMJ said:

It's not who will be the last four teams in the conference tournament, but who are the four that have a reasonable chance at winning it.

I get that, but the article says that Unt and uab would meet in the semifinals. If uab ends up as the number 2 seed in the west wouldn’t they be in the opposite bracket?

CMJ · February 22, 2022

Yeah, they would. We're likely to play the Toppers in the semis.

outoftown · February 22, 2022

I disagree with the view that NT is unlikely to make it in if they lose to UAB in the tournament. I think NT winning out may actually be a 10 seed, losing a tourney game would likely have NT hanging on to a play in game. Losing a game before the tourney means autobid only for NT. You look at the bracket matrix, and half of all bracketologists already have NT as an 11 seed, and the record is only likely to look better if NT wins out. Yes Q1 wins are scarce, which is why NT can't afford to slip up twice, but Q2 looks good and the road record is awesome; OOC SOS is also better than most bubble teams.

UAB likely only has the auto as an option now.

untlynchka1 · February 22, 2022

51 minutes ago, outoftown said:

I disagree with the view that NT is unlikely to make it in if they lose to UAB in the tournament. I think NT winning out may actually be a 10 seed, losing a tourney game would likely have NT hanging on to a play in game. Losing a game before the tourney means autobid only for NT. You look at the bracket matrix, and half of all bracketologists already have NT as an 11 seed, and the record is only likely to look better if NT wins out. Yes Q1 wins are scarce, which is why NT can't afford to slip up twice, but Q2 looks good and the road record is awesome; OOC SOS is also better than most bubble teams.

UAB likely only has the auto as an option now.

I kinda agree with you. I think Unt is the only team left that has a chance at an at-large bid, but I think the ONLY way we get that is by winning out all the way to the championship game, and it has to be against UAB.

That would put us at 26-5, but 24-5 in the eyes of the net rankings and selection committee. If we lose to UAB we would most likely still be top 50 NET, maybe top 45. We just don’t blow out teams(often)so that kinda hurts us in those rankings.

keith · February 22, 2022

I thought the teams were seeded within their divisions (East and West) so that the Championship game would be an East team against a West team. We have to go through our division to get to the Championship game, right?

Edit: Nevermind...it's cross-divisional.

Edited February 22, 2022 by keith

GMG_Dallas · February 22, 2022

Just now, keith said:

I thought the teams were seeded within their divisions (East and West) so that the Championship game would be an East team against a West team. We have to go through our division to get to the Championship game, right?

Nope. Each round, an east teams plays a west team.

keith · February 22, 2022

1 minute ago, GMG_Dallas said:

Nope. Each round, an east teams plays a west team.

Yeah, seeded 1-7 within each division then it's cross-divisional.

GMG_Dallas · February 22, 2022

I think if we win out, even a loss in the conference tourney would give us a net 50 ranking so we would be ok for an at large. Every at large team has bad losses. They just have good wins to counter them which is where our conference strength hurts us. That said, I find it unlikely we're left out with a NET ranking better than 50 but we'll see. Win the tournament and that's not a problem.

UNTcrazy727 · February 22, 2022

6 hours ago, untlynchka1 said:

I kinda agree with you. I think Unt is the only team left that has a chance at an at-large bid, but I think the ONLY way we get that is by winning out all the way to the championship game, and it has to be against UAB.

That would put us at 26-5, but 24-5 in the eyes of the net rankings and selection committee. If we lose to UAB we would most likely still be top 50 NET, maybe top 45. We just don’t blow out teams(often)so that kinda hurts us in those rankings.

We're already 39 in the NET. IMO, all we have to do to get an At-Large is win our final 4 regular season games and 1 CUSA Tourney game. If we do that our NET would improve to around 30. Losing to WKU or La Tech in the semifinals would only drop us 3-5 spots. Sure, getting to the finals would all but guarantee a spot, but I don't think it's absolutely necessary.

Edited February 22, 2022 by UNTcrazy727

MrAlien · February 22, 2022

I dont think the UNT has played enough Quad 1 games to earn an at large bid, there will be teams behind UNT in the NET that get in and may even be seeded higher assuming UNT gets in.

akriesman · February 22, 2022

1 hour ago, MrAlien said:

I dont think the UNT has played enough Quad 1 games to earn an at large bid, there will be teams behind UNT in the NET that get in and may even be seeded higher assuming UNT gets in.

I am pretty sure that I saw an article saying that no team with a .NET ranking of 41 or lower in the past has been shut out of the Tourney. We are 39 now obviously. Winning out the regular season (definitely not a given) should get us a bid IMO, unless the team completely implodes in the CUSA Tourney opener. It will be close though.

I also think that past NCAA CUSA tourney results should have some impact (but they don't). CUSA auto bid schools have won 5 of the last 6 NCAA 1st round games, all seeded 12 or lower. That is an amazing accomplishment and should probably boost a conferences strength a bit. The Big 10 always seems to get 8 to 10 teams in the tourney and usually underachieves. That's just not right IMO.

MrAlien · February 22, 2022

4 hours ago, akriesman said:

I am pretty sure that I saw an article saying that no team with a .NET ranking of 41 or lower in the past has been shut out of the Tourney. We are 39 now obviously. Winning out the regular season (definitely not a given) should get us a bid IMO, unless the team completely implodes in the CUSA Tourney opener. It will be close though.

I also think that past NCAA CUSA tourney results should have some impact (but they don't). CUSA auto bid schools have won 5 of the last 6 NCAA 1st round games, all seeded 12 or lower. That is an amazing accomplishment and should probably boost a conferences strength a bit. The Big 10 always seems to get 8 to 10 teams in the tourney and usually underachieves. That's just not right IMO.

Look at all the other teams around 41 in the NET, most have at least 5 quad 1 games, UNT has just 2 (1-1).

UNT is sitting just ahead of 3 ACC schools in the NET, (39 Wake Forest, 40 VT, and 41 North Carolina), all 3 are projected at receiving at large bids.

With the Mountain West having 4 schools projected to receive bids, UNT would probably have to move up higher then 2 of those schools (37 Wyoming a 33 San Diego) which is very possible.

drex · February 22, 2022

Politics says C-USA is a one bid conference.....don't you love politics?

CMJ · February 22, 2022

7 minutes ago, drex said:

Politics says C-USA is a one bid conference.....don't you love politics?

No it does not. The Sunbelt got multiple teams in the Dance a couple of times when we were in it. The Committee might not go out of their way to throw a bone to leagues like ours, but they don't blackball us either.

greenminer · February 22, 2022

It seems like once we get into the meat of conference play, the media has its predetermined views of CUSA and will rarely budge.

Strong OOC play would give us a stronger platform to move into the T25, which would turn more heads. Maybe CUSA teams in general could make efforts to schedule tougher OOC opponents.