Offers going out lately... Class of '23?

MeanGreenTexan · November 30, 2021

Looking at several of the offers going out this week (and they're flying out), there appears to be a lot of Juniors being offered now. This, despite only having 4 guys committed for the class of '22, and Early Signing Day only 15 days away.

Anyone else concerned about that?

If I've learned anything these past few recruiting cycles, it's not to second-guess Walerius, but usually we have pretty-much our entire class ready to sign by now with a few guys who flip late.

UNTLifer · November 30, 2021

We only have 8 seniors listed on our roster. I would guess a few more leave that have graduated, but this class should be small.

Our roster breakdown is crazy with the extra year given due to Covid

44 - Freshmen (43%)

17 - Redshirt Freshmen (17%)

21 - Sophomores (20%)

13 - Juniors (13%)

8 - Seniors (8%)

Percentages are a little off because I rounded up, but 60% of the roster are freshmen or RS freshmen and 80% are classified as underclassmen. Very "young" team.

MeanGreenTexan · November 30, 2021

27 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

We only have 8 seniors listed on our roster. I would guess a few more leave that have graduated, but this class should be small.

Our roster breakdown is crazy with the extra year given due to Covid

44 - Freshmen (43%)

17 - Redshirt Freshmen (17%)

21 - Sophomores (20%)

13 - Juniors (13%)

8 - Seniors (8%)

Percentages are a little off because I rounded up, but 60% of the roster are freshmen or RS freshmen and 80% are classified as underclassmen. Very "young" team.

Right, but even with those 8 seniors leaving, it leaves us with 95 players on the roster. We have a maximum of 105 spots (did you count BJ Lewis & Upton Stout in there?).
85 of those 105 guys are allowed to be on scholarship. So I'm not sure how many of those guys are scholarship'd guys but I doubt it's only 10.

Also, I can't remember if @BillySee58 already clarified, but I think the NCAA allowed for even more scholarships to be awarded over the next few seasons to offset the covid year if I'm not mistaken?

BillySee58 · November 30, 2021

9 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Right, but even with those 8 seniors leaving, it leaves us with 95 players on the roster. We have a maximum of 105 spots (did you count BJ Lewis & Upton Stout in there?).
85 of those 105 guys are allowed to be on scholarship. So I'm not sure how many of those guys are scholarship'd guys but I doubt it's only 10.

Also, I can't remember if @BillySee58 already clarified, but I think the NCAA allowed for even more scholarships to be awarded over the next few seasons to offset the covid year if I'm not mistaken?

For the 2021 season you are allowed to have 85 scholarship players who were not seniors in 2020 taking advantage of their extra season in 2021. I don’t know that such an exception is set to be allowed for 2022 or any subsequent years.

UNTLifer · November 30, 2021

22 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Right, but even with those 8 seniors leaving, it leaves us with 95 players on the roster. We have a maximum of 105 spots (did you count BJ Lewis & Upton Stout in there?).
85 of those 105 guys are allowed to be on scholarship. So I'm not sure how many of those guys are scholarship'd guys but I doubt it's only 10.

Also, I can't remember if @BillySee58 already clarified, but I think the NCAA allowed for even more scholarships to be awarded over the next few seasons to offset the covid year if I'm not mistaken?

There are only 103 on the current roster. Beyond that, I will leave it up to @BillySee58for the details. Makes my head hurt.

MeanGreenTexan · December 2, 2021

Starting to think we're only going to see these 4 guys sign during early signing period.
The coaches have all been out for several days now, and the only guys we're seeing offered are class of '23 & '24 guys. It would make sense because we only saw the Cam Robertson commit shortly after we rescinded Paige's offer.

To me, it's odd if that's the case, because we already have such a stacked RB room... why would we use one of only 4 HS offers on Qualon Farrar when there are so many other pressing team needs (not that I'm upset we have Farrar committed... can't wait for him to sign!)? Maybe we see some JUCO guys or late qualifiers sign in the February window?

BillySee58 · December 2, 2021

13 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Starting to think we're only going to see these 4 guys sign during early signing period.
The coaches have all been out for several days now, and the only guys we're seeing offered are class of '23 & '24 guys. It would make sense because we only saw the Cam Robertson commit shortly after we rescinded Paige's offer.

To me, it's odd if that's the case, because we already have such a stacked RB room... why would we use one of only 4 HS offers on Qualon Farrar when there are so many other pressing team needs (not that I'm upset we have Farrar committed... can't wait for him to sign!)? Maybe we see some JUCO guys or late qualifiers sign in the February window?

I put together a scholarship rundown. I don’t know the exact situation but this is my best estimation. I’m not sure if we have any specialists like Mooney, Rodriguez, Durham, etc on scholarship. Going to assume Mooney and Rodriguez are on scholarship to be conservative, so I have us currently at 78 scholarships with 8 being seniors. I expect Ridge Texada and Ayo Adeyi to be put on scholarship so that would put us at 80 less the 8 spots opening up puts us at 72 players on scholarship for next year, if everyone were to return. Here is the breakdown I have:

80 scholarship players

8 seniors

9 juniors

17 sophomores

16 redshirt freshmen

30 true freshmen

OL - 13

RB - 6 (1 senior)

QB - 5

WR - 11

TE - 5 (1 senior)

DL - 16 (3 seniors)

LB - 11 (2 seniors)

DB - 11 (1 senior)

K - 1

P - 1

We have 46 players with at least three more seasons of eligibility. After the bowl game the players will have their exit interviews with the coaches. Inevitably, some will be told that there isn’t really a path for them to become starters here and we will see transfers. Depending on how many transfer, and how many players choose to forego any remaining eligibility, we will have a better picture of how many spots we truly have left.

I don’t think it’s unrealistic to see 13 more players transfer or quit and we could actually sign a full 25. Especially if you consider players who will leave after Spring.

MeanGreenTexan · December 2, 2021

1 minute ago, BillySee58 said:

I put together a scholarship rundown. I don’t know the exact situation but this is my best estimation. I’m not sure if we have any specialists like Mooney, Rodriguez, Durham, etc on scholarship. Going to assume Mooney and Rodriguez are on scholarship to be conservative, so I have us currently at 78 scholarships with 8 being seniors. I expect Ridge Texada and Ayo Adeyi to be put on scholarship so that would put us at 80 less the 8 spots opening up puts us at 72 players on scholarship for next year, if everyone were to return. Here is the breakdown I have:

80 scholarship players

8 seniors

9 juniors

17 sophomores

16 redshirt freshmen

30 true freshmen

OL - 13

RB - 6 (1 senior)

QB - 5

WR - 11

TE - 5 (1 senior)

DL - 16 (3 seniors)

LB - 11 (2 seniors)

DB - 11 (1 senior)

K - 1

P - 1

We have 46 players with at least three more seasons of eligibility. After the bowl game the players will have their exit interviews with the coaches. Inevitably, some will be told that there isn’t really a path for them to become starters here and we will see transfers. Depending on how many transfer, and how many players choose to forego any remaining eligibility, we will have a better picture of how many spots we truly have left.

I don’t think it’s unrealistic to see 13 more players transfer or quit and we could actually sign a full 25. Especially if you consider players who will leave after Spring.

Awesome breakdown!
So even with your conservative estimate, including both Mooney & Rodriguez, plus the 4 guys we currently have committed, we should still have room for at least 9 more guys to sign on 12/15. But we're not seeing those offers go out... unless we're really hitting up the guys we've already offered earlier this year like David Oke, Ahmaad Moses, Patrick Smith, Duncan Parham, etc... guys that still tweeted about NT recruiting efforts on them late into their seasons?
Then yeah, if scholarship guys decide to transfer out or otherwise leave after the bowl game, we'd have those extra spots to fill in this class (up to 12 more).

UNTLifer · December 2, 2021

We have a reported, per 247, 102 offers out for this class. This number includes players already committed to us and elsewhere. My guess is that we are going to go the JUCO/Transfer route to help balance out the roster some. Then again, according to my wife, I have been wrong a time or two.

BillySee58 · December 2, 2021

1 hour ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Awesome breakdown!
So even with your conservative estimate, including both Mooney & Rodriguez, plus the 4 guys we currently have committed, we should still have room for at least 9 more guys to sign on 12/15. But we're not seeing those offers go out... unless we're really hitting up the guys we've already offered earlier this year like David Oke, Ahmaad Moses, Patrick Smith, Duncan Parham, etc... guys that still tweeted about NT recruiting efforts on them late into their seasons?
Then yeah, if scholarship guys decide to transfer out or otherwise leave after the bowl game, we'd have those extra spots to fill in this class (up to 12 more).

Thank you. And yeah, maybe a few late surprises or guys who sign after 12/15. I think across the country this might be the busiest February signing day since the December one was introduced.