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Posted

127. North Texas: Take note: Grant McCasland has been a head coach since 2016, and every year with the exception of one season his team has outperformed their preseason KenPom ranking. The Mean Green return two starters and six scholarship players from the group that made last season's NCAAs. Thomas Bell will be the MVP here; he's the team's best scorer and defender. 

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Posted

still way to early...

Going into last season, I didn't think they would surpass the performance of the previous season, I was wrong.  McCasland continues to get more out of his player every season, and I have no reason to think that will not continue.  127 seem way off the mark though...

  • Upvote 2
Posted (edited)

Some other notable programs and rankings. Not much has been written about the upcoming season, so nice to compile something for now.

 

In Conference Rankings

76. Louisiana Tech: One of the biggest offseason bounces to any college player went to Kenneth Lofton Jr., who was a BEAST (13.1 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 65% FG) playing for Team USA's U19 team. Lofton's a load now, coming in around 6-foot-7 and 285. He'll be a cult hero for college hoops hardcores -- and should win C-USA Player of the Year.

 

80. UAB: A more-than-satisfactory first season with Andy Kennedy (22-7) has the Blazers aligned to be a top-three Conference USA club. Kennedy added six transfers -- Tulane's Jordan Walker should pop -- and returns his top four players.

 

85. Western Kentucky: Maryland transfer Jairus Hamilton is a nice bonus. The Hilltoppers also have the nation's tallest player, 7-5 Jamarion Sharp. He plays point guard. Kidding. Sharp is new to D-I after spending the past two in junior college, where he averaged 5.8 blocks. Over/under 4.0 per game this season?

 

133. Marshall: If you're the kind of fan who loves to dig for under-the-radar gems who could one day wind up sticking in the NBA, the Thundering Herd has a guy for ya. Taevion Kinsey averaged 19.5 points and 6.2 rebounds last season, with an offensive rating of 119.2. I'll be making a case for him to crack the back end of our Top 100 (And 1) College Basketball Players list.

 

152. UTEP: Joe Golding's new spot after taking Abilene Christian to the second round as a No. 14 seed. This sure seems like a nice fit for him. The Miners have only made three NCAA tourneys since 1993. In fact, UTEP hasn't made two NCAA Tournaments with one coach since the legendary Don Haskins went to eight Dances in a nine-year span (1984-92). 

 

160. Old Dominion: The Monarchs have a blossoming interior duo in Austin Trice and Kalu Ezikpe. If those two can continue to be reliable in the paint on both ends, and if ODU can jump from 29.4% 3-point shooting to 34% then the Monarchs will be 20-30 spots better than where I've got 'em here. 

 

169. Rice: It's understandable if you don't see a lot of Rice Owls hoops, but they've got a 6-11 center named Max Fiedler who averaged 3.6 assists last season and is one of the most adroit passing bigs in the country. Fun-but-flawed team here. 

 

Other notable OOC programs on our schedule

121. UMass: The Minutemen won't have a player on this year's roster who's as talented as Tre Mitchell (off to Texas), but I have little doubt this team will be improved. Matt McCall has needed five seasons to truly arrange a roster he feels is the one that is his, how he wants it, through and through. This is that group. 

 

60. Buffalo: This team can be nearly as good as the Nate Oats-coached squad from '17-18 that punked Arizona in the NCAA Tournament. Jeenathan Williams (17.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg), Josh Mballa (15.3 ppg, 10.8 rpg) and Ronaldo Segu (13.3 ppg, 4.3 apg) form by far the best trio in the MAC. Mballa is one of the best rebounders in America and Williams is considered the dude of all dudes in that league. Quiet, determined, takes no BS. Segu does just enough to set up the other two for success while still getting his own. The Bulls are not anticipated to be a deep team, but so long as they're healthy they'll wind up being one of the toughest, most physically challenging opponents for every team they play this season.

 

261. UT Arlington: Greg Young takes over the Mavs for Chris Ogden, who not only left as UTA's coach but took a non-coaching role on Chris Beard's staff at Texas. So you know that paycheck is good. Arlington has the feel of a middle-of-the-pack Sun Belt team, according to coaches I spoke with.

 

4. Kansas: Kansas was bizarrely not a good shooting outfit in 2020-21. In fact, the Jayhawks had an effective field goal percentage of 49.4%, the poorest in ranking (196th, per KenPom) and accuracy in Self's career. With a KenPom team ranking of 27th, it also measured as the worst Self-coached team since Tulsa in 1998-99. (If finishing 27th is bad, then wow. Just wow.) Now the Jayhawks have a smorgasbord of eclectic talent, with Arizona State transfer/preseason Big 12 Player of the Year Remy Martin coming in to spice up the pot. I have no clue how that's going to go, but it will be must-see on account of Martin's penchant to jolt any given possession. Jalen Wilson was an up-and-down promising player last season and could be in for a huge year. I'm banking on him being a top-15 Big 12 guy. Add in the returns of Ochai Agbaji (their best all-around player), David McCormack and Christian Braun and you've got yourself a high-level starting five. Drake transfer Joseph Yesufu will be a spark plug. Self has told reporters he thinks Kansas can go 10-deep. I'll believe it when I see it, but the top eight looks mighty fun.

 

54. Nevada: This remains a program thriving off the transfer market. Credit to Steve Alford, who was bequeathed a good situation a few years ago via Eric Musselman and hasn't let the Wolf Pack drift. The Mountain West will have a small chance of being a four-bid league this season, and if that's a possibility come March, Nevada should be in that quartet. I don't think this squad has an outright league star, but the Pack do proudly deploy a quietly proficient backcourt of PG Grant Sherfield and SG Desmond Cambridge Jr.

 

191. Sam Houston State: Some huge potential for the Bearkats, as they landed Texas A&M transfer Savion Flagg, who's going to almost certainly average north of 20 points if he wants to. Jason Hooten also gets Demarkus Lampley back. This team is going to the WAC and has a chance to finish top-five

 

47. Wichita State: Isaac Brown was done right by Wichita State and promoted to the full-time gig in advance of last season's NCAA Tournament. The Shockers won the AAC's regular season and made the First Four; I anticipate this program will be right around the tournament cutline again. Loving the return of the 1-2 punch of Tyson Etienne (co-POY in the American) and Dexter Dennis. Getting them back -- not to mention the return of heavy-duty big Morris Udeze -- will keep Wichita State in the upper echelon of the American and steady a school that was sheathed in uncertainty a year ago at this time due to the severing from Gregg Marshall.

 

150. Tulsa: Frank Haith will be all too pleased to see where I've picked his Golden Hurricane team. Haith's been a head coach since 2004 and has never finished this low (150) at KenPom. (Lowest: 144 in 2017.) Word is this team will probably have to win games in a first-to-65 style, and that doesn't bode well in the big picture. 

 

Other programs of note not on our schedule

2. Purdue: I decided in mid-August this is where I was going to slot the Boilers. At the time I thought I was going to be on an island and likely higher on Matt Painter's team than most others in the media. But as we've gotten into mid-October it's clear that the Boilermakers are viewed as top-five caliber by plenty of knowledgeable hacks around the industry. My biggest reason for this is Painter's undisputed chops as a coach combined with potentially having three of the 30 best players in the country: PF Trevion Williams, PG Jaden Ivey and C Zach Edey, the latter two having flourished in U19 competition over the summer and boosted their stock immensely. Forward Sasha Stefanovic and combo guard Eric Hunter also return, giving Purdue as much all-around dependability as any team in men's college basketball. Painter's had some nice teams over the years that never broke through to the Final Four. I doubt Purdue reaches No. 2 the preseason AP Top 25, but if it winds up in the top five it will mark just the fourth time it's been that high heading into a season (1970: No. 3; 1987: No. 4; 1988: No. 2). Get ready for a powerhouse to emerge in West Lafayette, Indiana. 

 

3. Villanova: Collin Gillespie opting to come back after his torn left MCL is what makes this team -- again -- a title contender. Jermaine Samuels going in for one more tour of duty with the Wildcats also helps significantly, and will matter a ton early because talented-but-snakebitten wing Bryan Antoine will miss the start of the season due to injury. I still feel like Samuels has something more in him he'll show. So if Antoine can get healthy, Villanova will again -- easily -- be the best team in the Big East and position itself for a fourth Final Four appearance under newly minted Hall of Famer Jay Wright. Other familiar names back: starters Justin Moore (could wind up being better than Gillespie) and Caleb Daniels. The knock here is losing Big East Player of the Year Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, but Villanova is a culture built upon itself. The idea is that Eric Dixon will take the jump in minutes and production, with help from top-50 2021 recruit Trey Patterson, and they'll again have one of the best offensive teams in the sport.

Edited by denton_days
  • Upvote 2
Posted

Feels about right given our roster losses. Saved you all some work:

CUSA ahead of us:

76. La Tech

80. UAB

85. WKU

127. UNT

CUSA behind us:

133. Marshall

152. UTEP

160. ODU

169. Rice

177. FAU

193. Charlotte

212. Southern Miss

230. UTSA

241. Middle Tennessee

281. FIU

  • Upvote 5
Posted

Just relying on this article, it seems in our OOC games, we will be facing

121, 60, 261, 4, 54, 191, 47, 150. Average 'rank' of our OOC is 88.5, but there's obviously a huge range of teams we're facing. Of the 'good' teams we'd be facing, they average a rank of 41.25 - pretty high. 

  • Upvote 1
Posted
18 hours ago, denton_days said:

Just relying on this article, it seems in our OOC games, we will be facing

121, 60, 261, 4, 54, 191, 47, 150. Average 'rank' of our OOC is 88.5, but there's obviously a huge range of teams we're facing. Of the 'good' teams we'd be facing, they average a rank of 41.25 - pretty high. 

With small samples you can't really use averages, especially with outliers such as KU and UTA. I still wouldn't use avg here but removing those 2 gives an avg of 96. The median is 90.5. Long story short: we've got some tough OOC opponents.

Posted
6 hours ago, MDH said:

With small samples you can't really use averages, especially with outliers such as KU and UTA. I still wouldn't use avg here but removing those 2 gives an avg of 96. The median is 90.5. Long story short: we've got some tough OOC opponents.

That’s true - more so was trying to just highlight how tough our OOC opponents will be. Ready for this season!

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