Where UNT Stands in Realignment Based on Key Metrics

TheColonyEagle · October 4, 2021

UTSA keeps performing well on the field (which we didn't)

However they came home 4-0 with a win against a historically top G5 and a P5...everyone is talking about them...and they do this:

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That's not good

denton_days · October 4, 2021

Rowdy talk sayin UTSA might have turned down AAC because of their budget http://www.rowdytalk.com/showthread.php/11283-Complete-Realignment-Thread/page22

Wag Tag · October 4, 2021

8 minutes ago, denton_days said:

Rowdy talk sayin UTSA might have turned down AAC because of their budget http://www.rowdytalk.com/showthread.php/11283-Complete-Realignment-Thread/page22

He would definitely be a coach to look at if Seth is let go. I didn’t realize they couldn’t afford to put a roof on their own practice facility. If this is true they won’t be able to afford MWC.

greenminer · October 4, 2021

15 minutes ago, denton_days said:

Rowdy talk sayin UTSA might have turned down AAC because of their budget http://www.rowdytalk.com/showthread.php/11283-Complete-Realignment-Thread/page22

ColoradoEagle · October 4, 2021

Although I have no knowledge on the veracity of the source, this is basically what I've been saying. UTSA operates on a Sun Belt budget, plays in a rented stadium 20 miles from campus, and their basketball team plays in a HS gym. Any conference that comes calling is going to want to take a look at their plans for increasing their budget, building an on campus football stadium, and replacing their basketball arena.

People on message boards want to latch onto UTSA being 5-0 this season and being 'the only game in their market' despite being closer to Austin than College Station is to Houston. They're not ready to move up, and they may never be ready.

GrandGreen · October 4, 2021

Impressive methodology, but it all depends on his source material. How does he know how the schools rank academically. Hint, he does not. Those ranking are always based on everything but learning. Research dollars, SAT or ACT scores of students entering, publications of faculty, assumes professors worth is based on where there degrees were obtained, etc.

I do agree with his geographical stats, but he seems to think they only matter for P5s and supposed superior private universities.

To displays to me an overall disdain for G5 schools. Exceptions are expensive private schools, cause everyone knows they are just better.

I often wonder why we have so many NT grads are so quick to assume that other schools are preferable.

It obviously depends on career objectives, financial restraints, social environment, location, etc.

outoftown · October 4, 2021

I don't know if it would be hillarious or sad if UTSA could not go to AAC or MWC because of budget. A bit of both I guess. But really to stay in C-USA when you could get out and instead stay in the future C-USA. NT going to I-AA kind of level failure if it were to turn out this were true (I am not at all sure it is yet)

ForneyGreen · October 4, 2021

17 minutes ago, ColoradoEagle said:

Although I have no knowledge on the veracity of the source, this is basically what I've been saying. UTSA operates on a Sun Belt budget, plays in a rented stadium 20 miles from campus, and their basketball team plays in a HS gym. Any conference that comes calling is going to want to take a look at their plans for increasing their budget, building an on campus football stadium, and replacing their basketball arena.

People on message boards want to latch onto UTSA being 5-0 this season and being 'the only game in their market' despite being closer to Austin than College Station is to Houston. They're not ready to move up, and they may never be ready.

Agreed. Current financials, potential financials, and academics all play a big part in conference invites/movement. A couple of good football years is nice but not nearly as important.

Outside of Rice and UAB, I don't see other CUSA schools that fit well in the AAC. UAB would need to increase its athletic budget a lot, but they may have the potential and support to do it. I think a lot of AAC schools would throw a fit if other CUSA schools were invited like FAU or FIU... that would be seen as watering-down the AAC similar to what happened with CUSA.

Will be fun to watch this all play out 🙂

ChristopherRyanWilkes · October 4, 2021

2 minutes ago, GrandGreen said:

Impressive methodology, but it all depends on his source material. How does he know how the schools rank academically. Hint, he does not. Those ranking are always based on everything but learning. Research dollars, SAT or ACT scores of students entering, publications of faculty, assumes professors worth is based on where there degrees were obtained, etc.

I do agree with his geographical stats, but he seems to think they only matter for P5s and supposed superior private universities.

To displays to me an overall disdain for G5 schools. Exceptions are expensive private schools, cause everyone knows they are just better.

I often wonder why we have so many NT grads are so quick to assume that other schools are preferable.

It obviously depends on career objectives, financial restraints, social environment, location, etc.

He mentions in the video that schools have different objectives. Public schools are geared toward providing accessible education to their states. For instance, WVU has a stated mission statement of educating the people of Appalachia. Regardless, presidents know perception is big and I am convinced they look at most of these data points when deciding on what other schools they want to be affiliated with, along with subjective things just like anything else.

Geography is less relevant with G5’s, as explained by a recent article by Matt Brown on mid-major TV numbers: https://www.extrapointsmb.com/mid-major-tv-valuation-conference-realignment-streaming/

DentonLurker · October 4, 2021

I know this will probably be an unpopular stance, but should UNT consider taking more the Kansas or Kentucky model and throw millions at basketball instead of football and just be okay with football being what it is?

It seems like we've tried everything in football with basically the same results... up and coming coach, former P5 coach looking for a second shot, shiny new facilities, etc.

Could we build something special in basketball with the right financial commitments? Plus, with a need for 2-3 star players making a huge difference in results on the court, basketball could be relevant a lot faster. I've always felt like Texas needs a school to sell out to be the "basketball school" in Texas. At the 2 big boys (UT/A&M), basketball will always be second fiddle. It doesn't seem like anyone in Texas has ever tried letting basketball be first fiddle.

ColoradoEagle · October 4, 2021

7 minutes ago, DentonLurker said:

I know this will probably be an unpopular stance, but should UNT consider taking more the Kansas or Kentucky model and throw millions at basketball instead of football and just be okay with football being what it is?

No. Unlike the east coast, there is no equivalent to the Big East. Any move towards prioritizing basketball would, at best, land us back in the Missouri Valley.

Edited October 4, 2021 by ColoradoEagle

keith · October 4, 2021

2 hours ago, denton_days said:

Rowdy talk sayin UTSA might have turned down AAC because of their budget http://www.rowdytalk.com/showthread.php/11283-Complete-Realignment-Thread/page22

If the AAC offered UTSA, then they aren't following the model laid out by the B12 analysis as UTSA isn't really that close of a fit with the rest of the AAC. The AAC would need to pass over several other schools with a closer fit (including UNT) to get to UTSA (assuming the presidents of the AAC think the same way the presidents of the B12 do).

The closest upward fit for UNT is the MW, plus several current members are former conference mates.

The pros for UNT include: Top school/huge market, Potential fan base (# of alumni), Carnegie designation, Research $, on the list for the "new AAU"

The cons for UNT include: Sports success (core/olympic), University endowment, Social media followers/engagement

Not sure how important social media followers/engagement is, but it was part of the research data and we were fairly low given our enrollment/alumi base.

PlummMeanGreen · October 4, 2021

1 hour ago, DentonLurker said:

I've always felt like Texas needs a school to sell out to be the "basketball school" in Texas. At the 2 big boys (UT/A&M), basketball will always be second fiddle. It doesn't seem like anyone in Texas has ever tried letting basketball be first fiddle.

My ex UNT professor for basketball coaching 101 (an elective I took); an Ex Bill Blakely MG asst. & Lamar University AD/Basketball Coach Billy Tubbs was at the Beaumont school when they discussed & would later decide to try basketball only (as I recall). It didn’t work out. They would soon be trying to resurrect their football program. It’s Texas so that was understandable, but nice try Billy.

🦅

Edited October 4, 2021 by PlummMeanGreen

ChristopherRyanWilkes · October 5, 2021

Another MWC AD (this time CSU) talks expanding into Texas.

Lots of interesting stuff in there, but a few tidbits:

Big 12's top two key metrics for expansion were TV eyes and recent (last 10 years) football success. That's not to say Altimore's presentation is incorrect, but it does look like those were a point of emphasis for the Big 12 at least. May be less relevant with non-A5.
The MWC expansion into Texas sounds pretty definite at this point. The question is who. He mentions that the teams coming in would have to be willing to take less money up front until they renegotiate their TV contract. That almost certainly leaves out SMU, who would be taking a big paycut to make the move. In my mind that leaves North Texas, Rice, and UTSA.
They are also looking to add basketball only schools, with the obvious choice being Gonzaga. If that move coincides with ours, I would be on cloud 9. The association with Gonzaga and opportunities for upsets would propel our basketball program for years to come.
Big 12 likely ain't done expanding. They are waiting for Texas and OU to bounce so they can go back to their contract limit of 14. Leaked information said Boise and Memphis were the last two out, so unfortunately we may not be in the same conference with Boise for very long if we get invited.

TheColonyEagle · October 5, 2021

7 minutes ago, ChristopherRyanWilkes said:

Another MWC AD (this time CSU) talks expanding into Texas.

Lots of interesting stuff in there, but a few tidbits:

Big 12's top two key metrics for expansion were TV eyes and recent (last 10 years) football success. That's not to say Altimore's presentation is incorrect, but it does look like those were a point of emphasis for the Big 12 at least. May be less relevant with non-A5.

The MWC expansion into Texas sounds pretty definite at this point. The question is who. He mentions that the teams coming in would have to be willing to take less money up front until they renegotiate their TV contract. That almost certainly leaves out SMU, who would be taking a big paycut to make the move. In my mind that leaves North Texas, Rice, and UTSA.

They are also looking to add basketball only schools, with the obvious choice being Gonzaga. If that move coincides with ours, I would be on cloud 9. The association with Gonzaga and opportunities for upsets would propel our basketball program for years to come.

Big 12 likely ain't done expanding. They are waiting for Texas and OU to bounce so they can go back to their contract limit of 14. Leaked information said Boise and Memphis were the last two out, so unfortunately we may not be in the same conference with Boise for very long if we get invited.

Good stuff, thanks for that....

As for the bolded part...this is where we have to have an aggressive strategy, have to hit the ground running and need a little luck. The president and AD are going to have to get a slam dunk HC hire after this year. We can't come in with a "5 year plan to rebuild" If we were invited to MWC and had 2 years with Boise.....we better be ready to take their place in year 3 meaning we better be in a position to win the MWC. Better be ranked. Go heavy transfer portal if needed. That has to be the mindset.

Have we ever done anything like that? No. Have others? Yes. Can we? Of Course.

Have to get the right guy. Everything depends on that. This will be the most important thing Wren Baker has ever done in his career.

TheColonyEagle · October 5, 2021

And I'll add...it seems like UTSA going to MWC or AAC is dead. They simply don't have the infrastructure. They had 20K at their stadium midway through what's shaping up to bet the best season in their short history. They have one thing we don't currently have: recent on field success. But they don't have ANY of the other things needed for conference move up. (financial backing and support)

They still need a few more years.

Tom McKrackin · October 5, 2021

1 minute ago, TheColonyEagle said:

t seems like UTSA going to MWC or AAC is dead.

Actually they also don't have the money. They don't have a couple million laying around to pay for exit fees. Especially for a conference that seems to be built on sand.

MeanGreenTexan · October 5, 2021

17 hours ago, ColoradoEagle said:

Although I have no knowledge on the veracity of the source, this is basically what I've been saying. UTSA operates on a Sun Belt budget, plays in a rented stadium 20 miles from campus, and their basketball team plays in a HS gym. Any conference that comes calling is going to want to take a look at their plans for increasing their budget, building an on campus football stadium, and replacing their basketball arena.

People on message boards want to latch onto UTSA being 5-0 this season and being 'the only game in their market' despite being closer to Austin than College Station is to Houston. They're not ready to move up, and they may never be ready.

That's why their football success this year is incredibly important to them. Winning brings people on board, which brings money into the coffers. Then, they can pay the C-USA exit fees and whatnot. It will be very incriminating if they win a bunch, get ranked, and still draw SMU-type crowds & still struggle financially.

IMO, them playing in the Alamodome is not the worst thing. They are the only program there. It's not like they have to paint over a pro team's logo to put the roadrunner on there.
Their high school b-ball gym is really bad. That's gotta be priority #1 for them.

Their potential is keeping their hopes floating. But their infancy of big boy athletics is hurting them. It's what we were all pissed about when they joined C-USA over TXSt way back when.

keith · October 5, 2021

So after the AAC is done licking its wounds, what does it do? If you listen to consultant Tony Altimore and his position that conference membership is predominately about "fit" across a broad spectrum of attributes as seen by the presidents of the member universities, the invites of AFA, CSU and SDSU (even as a geographic outlier) made sense. BSU didn't really make sense as it wasn't a fit with the rest of the AAC. Personally, I think it was always going to be a hard sell to entice schools to make what really amounted to a lateral move.

Does the AAC want to replace the 3 that left or get to 12? Again, according to Altimore, the next best "fit" for the AAC conference presidents would seem to be: Rice, Buffalo, UMass and Miami-OH. UAB would be an option only after one or more of these 4 declined. I think Rice and independent UMass would be a yes. I kinda always considered the MAC the most stable of conferences, but I think Buffalo and Miami-OH would jump to the AAC as well, if invited. This would be a "move up" for all 4.

Altimore spends the vast majority of his time on the "upper half" of D-I conferences. I'm concerned that he may have a bit too much influence in shaping the landscape of college conferences if he's the one all the presidents are listening too. Although, I guess the argument could be made that he's just presenting the data that backs up what the university presidents already know (feel).

Edited October 5, 2021 by keith

ColoradoEagle · October 5, 2021

51 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

That's why their football success this year is incredibly important to them. Winning brings people on board, which brings money into the coffers. Then, they can pay the C-USA exit fees and whatnot. It will be very incriminating if they win a bunch, get ranked, and still draw SMU-type crowds & still struggle financially.

IMO, them playing in the Alamodome is not the worst thing. They are the only program there. It's not like they have to paint over a pro team's logo to put the roadrunner on there.
Their high school b-ball gym is really bad. That's gotta be priority #1 for them.

Their potential is keeping their hopes floating. But their infancy of big boy athletics is hurting them. It's what we were all pissed about when they joined C-USA over TXSt way back when.

I just don't think any conference makes a decision based on this year of football alone. Best case scenario and UTSA goes undefeated in the regular season, their coach is gone anyway. So you really have to consider what else they have to that program, and it's not a lot.

Alamodome isn't the worst thing, but it's not far off from us playing our games at Jerry World. At some point, they need to begin planning for an on-campus stadium. That alone will help with their attendance issue. But yes, the basketball gym is by far their most pressing issue, facilities wise.

49 minutes ago, keith said:

So after the AAC is done licking its wounds, what does it do? If you listen to consultant Tony Altimore and his position that conference membership is predominately about "fit" across a broad spectrum of attributes as seen by the presidents of the member universities, the invites of AFA, CSU and SDSU (even as a geographic outlier) made sense. BSU didn't really make sense as it wasn't a fit with the rest of the AAC. Personally, I think it was always going to be a hard sell to entice schools to make what really amounted to a lateral move.

Does the AAC want to replace the 3 that left or get to 12? Again, according to Altimore, the next best "fit" for the AAC conference presidents would seem to be: Rice, Buffalo, UMass and Miami-OH. UAB would be an option only after one or more of these 4 declined. I think Rice and independent UMass would be a yes. I kinda always considered the MAC the most stable of conferences, but I think Buffalo and Miami-OH would jump to the AAC as well, if invited. This would be a "move up" for all 4.

At this point, it's beginning to feel like the AAC will have to waive most or all of their entrance fee to get new members. The schools they're looking at simply don't have the means to pay an exit fee for their existing conference and turn right around and pay a $10m entry fee for the AAC.

MeanGreenTexan · October 5, 2021

10 minutes ago, ColoradoEagle said:

I just don't think any conference makes a decision based on this year of football alone. Best case scenario and UTSA goes undefeated in the regular season, their coach is gone anyway. So you really have to consider what else they have to that program, and it's not a lot.

Alamodome isn't the worst thing, but it's not far off from us playing our games at Jerry World. At some point, they need to begin planning for an on-campus stadium. That alone will help with their attendance issue. But yes, the basketball gym is by far their most pressing issue, facilities wise.

...

Oh yeah, there are so many other factors (many much more important than this season's on-field performance) to be considered. It's just frustrating that NT's only problem right now happens to be current football performance because everything else is going so well.

And I know the Super Pit isn't terrible, but NT already has another B-ball arena in the plans. Heck, we have a baseball stadium in the plans, and that was below the basketball arena in priority!
I'm not privy on UTSA's plans, but I bet they at least have an on-campus stadium somewhere in them? They definitely have some issues with budget, but if they can somehow deflect that & sell their potential, I wouldn't be surprised if they came along... who else would they take? Rice? UTEP? LATech? Steal someone from AAC?

keith · October 5, 2021

*If* UTSA told the AAC no, it wasn't to a formal invite. With the public embarrassment the AAC just experienced there is no way they are extending invitations to anyone else unless it's a formality to already getting the yes in writing. I could see UTSA deselecting themselves if the AAC was basically putting out RFPs to potential candidates. A "no bid" by UTSA is a lot different than UTSA saying no to a bona fide, formal invitation to join the conference.

19 hours ago, greenminer said:

ChristopherRyanWilkes · October 5, 2021

9 minutes ago, keith said:

*If* UTSA told the AAC no, it wasn't to a formal invite. With the public embarrassment the AAC just experienced there is no way they are extending invitations to anyone else unless it's a formality to already getting the yes in writing. I could see UTSA deselecting themselves if the AAC was basically putting out RFPs to potential candidates. A "no bid" by UTSA is a lot different than UTSA saying no to a bona fide, formal invitation to join the conference.

Exactly, this sounds like at the very least a misunderstanding of what possibly happened. The CSU AD said things were never "imminent" with the AAC like it was reported and that media misinformation is common. Usually though these things aren't totally wrong or have some truth to them taken with a grain of salt around the details. I think you nailed what likely happened, if at all.

ColoradoEagle · October 5, 2021

30 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Oh yeah, there are so many other factors (many much more important than this season's on-field performance) to be considered. It's just frustrating that NT's only problem right now happens to be current football performance because everything else is going so well.

And I know the Super Pit isn't terrible, but NT already has another B-ball arena in the plans. Heck, we have a baseball stadium in the plans, and that was below the basketball arena in priority!
I'm not privy on UTSA's plans, but I bet they at least have an on-campus stadium somewhere in them? They definitely have some issues with budget, but if they can somehow deflect that & sell their potential, I wouldn't be surprised if they came along... who else would they take? Rice? UTEP? LATech? Steal someone from AAC?

If I were the MWC trying to get into Texas, I would go with North Texas and Rice. Rice brings academics, hopefully their baseball gets back up to par, and they're just overall a good institution if they can start actually getting behind athletics again.

From the CSU AD's comments, though, they're 100% looking at NT and UTSA. I guess they view UTSA and Rice basketball as a push, and easy enough to avoid scheduling UTSA home basketball games on TV.

13 minutes ago, keith said:

*If* UTSA told the AAC no, it wasn't to a formal invite. With the public embarrassment the AAC just experienced there is no way they are extending invitations to anyone else unless it's a formality to already getting the yes in writing. I could see UTSA deselecting themselves if the AAC was basically putting out RFPs to potential candidates. A "no bid" by UTSA is a lot different than UTSA saying no to a bona fide, formal invitation to join the conference.

There are no formal invites until the school is willing to say yes. AAC has most likely offered to several schools without it being formal.

Edited October 5, 2021 by ColoradoEagle

Green Otaku · October 5, 2021

21 minutes ago, ColoradoEagle said:

If I were the MWC trying to get into Texas, I would go with North Texas and Rice. Rice brings academics, hopefully their baseball gets back up to par, and they're just overall a good institution if they can start actually getting behind athletics again.

From the CSU AD's comments, though, they're 100% looking at NT and UTSA. I guess they view UTSA and Rice basketball as a push, and easy enough to avoid scheduling UTSA home basketball games on TV.

There are no formal invites until the school is willing to say yes. AAC has most likely offered to several schools without it being formal.

Rice would be a shoe in if they guaranteed to spend heavily on athletics. It's not like they are sweating for money. I wonder what kind of conversation Rice would have with a potential interested MWC. AAC has surely reached out to them as well if only to stay in Houston.