Where UNT Stands in Realignment Based on Key Metrics

[ChristopherRyanWilkes]

A consultant did a fascinating presentation on a Big 12 radio show where he took a look at all of the metrics most important to college ADs and presidents and compiled it into several insightful graphs. He found that the recent Big 12 additions made perfect sense not only from a football standpoint but also based on academic culture and overall sports success. He made a similar finding with all the other conferences, and also the newly formed "alliance" of the Big 10, ACC, and Pac-12, who all have schools that best balance academic and athletic success. I thought this graph was especially telling:

A few notes that are relevant to UNT and our hopes of getting into a better conference in this round of realignment:

• Fans tend to overemphasize recent football success, but that is only one factor of many that administrators look at. Football is only one part of a school's overall "brand," and they want to be grouped with other schools that fit that brand. Your school's President and overall trajectory is also important. He factors in all of this in the graph above.
• We are definitely not a slam dunk for either the MWC or the AAC. The fit problem with the AAC is that we are not either an academically prestigious private school or a school that is successful enough in sports to offset that fact. Just based on the metrics, the only slam dunks I see for them are Rice or Army.
• We fit better with the MWC as far as school profile goes, as the MWC is composed primarily of "quasi-commuter schools" of average academic prestige in the western US. We also have Smastresk who presumably has relationships from his time at UNLV. That could be a big advantage. Our fit problem with the MWC is that we are geographically distanced and would not elevate the conference either academically or athletically in any way. Since the MWC doesn't have to expand anymore, they probably have no reason to bring in any schools that would instantly be in the bottom half of the conference.
• We probably group where we currently are better than we do with either the AAC or MWC. I know this isn't what most want to hear, but facts are facts. He terms our group the G-3, composed of the Sunbelt, CUSA, and MAC. These are all composed of schools that struggle either academically, athletically, or both relative to their FBS counterparts.
• Given all this, things may end up standing pat more than we would hope. The only upward move that seems eminent at the moment is UAB to the AAC. You can see from the above why they were their 5th option, and the AAC can't be stoked about any of the recent developments. I bet Army will also be heavily involved in the AAC expansion conversations. 

Source Link

Edited October 2, 2021 by ChristopherRyanWilkes

[Wag Tag]

We move when SMU moves. 

[ChristopherRyanWilkes]

Just now, Wag Tag said:

We move when SMU moves. 

He thinks they are one of the viable options based on Big 12 fit, but I’m not convinced. I think Big 12 ignores academics and goes with football in this next round and grabs Boise State and Memphis. They could easily stand pat as well. Any move to the MWC would make more sense if Boise State is gone. 

[PlummMeanGreen]

6 minutes ago, Wag Tag said:

We move when SMU moves. 

...or when a giant sink hole swallows SMU whole.  

After 48 freakin’ years of this I’m really growing tired of their influence over our advancing.  Of course, we don’t do our part, either, like, uh....simply win? 
 

🦅

Edited October 2, 2021 by PlummMeanGreen

[El Paso Eagle]

4 minutes ago, PlummMeanGreen said:

...or when a giant sink hole swallows SMU whole.  

After 48 freakin’ years of this I’m really growing tired of their influence over our advancing.  Of course, we don’t do our part, either, like, uh....simply win? 
 

🦅

[ChristopherRyanWilkes]

12 minutes ago, PlummMeanGreen said:

...or when a giant sink hole swallows SMU whole.  

After 48 freakin’ years of this I’m really growing tired of their influence over our advancing.  Of course, we don’t do our part, either, like, uh....simply win? 
 

🦅

I don’t think that’s even close to the main factor. SMU easily fits the AAC profile and we don’t. We are close, but outside the top 4 candidates all things being equal and without any SMU animosity. I put UAB, Army, Rice, Charlotte, and FIU ahead of us.  Now if Army isn’t interested, things may get interesting. 

Edited October 2, 2021 by ChristopherRyanWilkes

[PlummMeanGreen]

Just now, ChristopherRyanWilkes said:

I don’t think that’s even close to the main factor. SMU easily fits the AAC profile and we don’t. We are close, but outside the top 4 candidates all things being equal and without any SMU animosity. I put UAB, Army, Rice, Charlotte, and FAU ahead of us.  Now if Army isn’t interested, things may get interesting. 

I have been pushing for the MWC even before TCU got in it, but what do I know.  That’s no lie—ask SUMG how I’ve wanted this for UNT a long time.  I want UNT where SMU ain’t. 
 

[ChristopherRyanWilkes]

3 minutes ago, PlummMeanGreen said:

I have been pushing for the MWC even before TCU got in it, but what do I know.  That’s no lie—ask SUMG how I’ve wanted this for UNT a long time.  I want UNT where SMU ain’t. 
 

And taking a look at this, should we move if invited shouldn’t even be a question. We would be one of the teams dragging them down. Right now we are top-10 of the “G3”, but probably not ready to move up based on sports success. 

[untjim1995]

16 minutes ago, PlummMeanGreen said:

I have been pushing for the MWC even before TCU got in it, but what do I know.  That’s no lie—ask SUMG how I’ve wanted this for UNT a long time.  I want UNT where SMU ain’t. 
 

I’m at the point that if we don’t get into the MWC and are stuck in CUSA, then this entire program is permanently stuck in FBS purgatory.

[Jonnyeagle]

40 minutes ago, Wag Tag said:

We move when SMU moves. 

[Mike Jackson]

13 minutes ago, ChristopherRyanWilkes said:

And taking a look at this, should we move if invited shouldn’t even be a question. We would be one of the teams dragging them down. Right now we are top-10 of the “G3”, but probably not ready to move up based on sports success. 

Exactly we suck which makes that desperation extension SL look all the more ridiculous right now. 

[outoftown]

I find slide 68 on this one impressive. Shows that if lines were redrawn, UNT would be AAU.

Slide 200 also shows why NT may well be ahead of some of its C-USA peers.

Edited October 2, 2021 by outoftown

[Professor Lambeau]

1 hour ago, ChristopherRyanWilkes said:

A consultant did a fascinating presentation on a Big 12 radio show where he took a look at all of the metrics most important to college ADs and presidents and compiled it into several insightful graphs. He found that the recent Big 12 additions made perfect sense not only from a football standpoint but also based on academic culture and overall sports success. He made a similar finding with all the other conferences, and also the newly formed "alliance" of the Big 10, ACC, and Pac-12, who all have schools that best balance academic and athletic success. I thought this graph was especially telling:

A few notes that are relevant to UNT and our hopes of getting into a better conference in this round of realignment:

• Fans tend to overemphasize recent football success, but that is only one factor of many that administrators look at. Football is only one part of a school's overall "brand," and they want to be grouped with other schools that fit that brand. Your school's President and overall trajectory is also important. He factors in all of this in the graph above.
• We are definitely not a slam dunk for either the MWC or the AAC. The fit problem with the AAC is that we are not either an academically prestigious private school or a school that is successful enough in sports to offset that fact. Just based on the metrics, the only slam dunks I see for them are Rice or Army.
• We fit better with the MWC as far as school profile goes, as the MWC is composed primarily of "quasi-commuter schools" of average academic prestige in the western US. We also have Smastresk who presumably has relationships from his time at UNLV. That could be a big advantage. Our fit problem with the MWC is that we are geographically distanced and would not elevate the conference either academically or athletically in any way. Since the MWC doesn't have to expand anymore, they probably have no reason to bring in any schools that would instantly be in the bottom half of the conference.
• We probably group where we currently are better than we do with either the AAC or MWC. I know this isn't what most want to hear, but facts are facts. He terms our group the G-3, composed of the Sunbelt, CUSA, and MAC. These are all composed of schools that struggle either academically, athletically, or both relative to their FBS counterparts.
• Given all this, things may end up standing pat more than we would hope. The only upward move that seems eminent at the moment is UAB to the AAC. You can see from the above why they were their 5th option, and the AAC can't be stoked about any of the recent developments. I bet Army will also be heavily involved in the AAC expansion conversations. 

Source Link

Thank you for taking the time to post this.

[Mean Green 93-98]

13 minutes ago, outoftown said:

I find slide 68 on this one impressive. Shows that if lines were redrawn, UNT would be AAU.

Replace "shows" with "claims."  It also claims that Brown, Princeton, Northwestern and Rice would all lose their AAU status.

[ChristopherRyanWilkes]

20 minutes ago, outoftown said:

I find slide 68 on this one impressive. Shows that if lines were redrawn, UNT would be AAU.

Slide 200 also shows why NT may well be ahead of some of its C-USA peers.

I missed that earlier, that is interesting. Seems to be the “market size” metric that may be overrated this go around. I should also mention I don’t find any team in the CUSA other than Rice head and shoulders ahead of us in any category. Which is why I almost wonder if the AAC’s best move would be adding Army and Rice and calling it a day at 10. Their attempt at 4 MWC schools made sense, but now there’s very few clear stand outs for them to add. Like I said UNT is a top-10 candidate for either league, but there may not be enough movement, and the fit may not be as snug as those leagues would like. Other moves we’ve seen have made sense to this point but now the AAC has tougher calls.

[outoftown]

24 minutes ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

Replace "shows" with "claims."  It also claims that Brown, Princeton, Northwestern and Rice would all lose their AAU status.

True, there is some subjectivity to this.

But honestly, I think they are on to something there., at least in quantity

Last time I was for a collaboration at princeton, I don't think I saw anything that made me think it truly can hang these days with some of the bigger institutions. Yes there are a few big name professors. But the mid- level of research is honestly nowhere near the level reputation would let you imagine and frankly likely worse than at a lot of less prestigous places. I.e. there is prestigous teaching, but not enough high level, personell inteinsive research. The campus is so tiny, that is simply not possible. From what I heard and saw from Brown grads it does not seem different there. Its not like going to MIT or similar, where it all blows you away. I have plenty of friends who went for research stints of a few years or so to Harvard, Stanford, Yale, MIT etc, and nobody who went to any of these schools other than maybe northwestern. That for my personal network, is a bad sign when it comes to those schools resarch.

Don't really know enough about the academics at Rice and northwestern.

Edited October 2, 2021 by outoftown

[ChristopherRyanWilkes]

1 minute ago, outoftown said:

True, there is some subjectivity to this.

But honestly, I think they are on to something there.

Last time I was for a collaboration at princeton, I don't think I saw anything that made me think it truly can hang these days with some of the bigger institutions. Yes there are a few big name professors. But the mid- level of research is honestly nowhere near the level reputation would let you imagine and frankly likely worse than at a lot of less prestigous places. I.e. there is prestigous teaching, but not enough high level, personell inteinsive research. The campus is so tiny, that is simply not possible. From what I heard and saw from Brown grads it does not seem different there. Its not like going to MIT or similar, where it all blows you away.

Don't really know enough about the academics at Rice and northwestern.

He mentions this, but a lot of these schools benefit from elitist “input” metrics, rather than output (student SAT, GPA, etc.). Of course due to their small size and hardworking student base, they also do well financially. I say hardworking because most of that stuff is learning the game and working your tail off in high school. Any recruiter will tell you your average State school candidate probably has a better personality. 

[outoftown]

25 minutes ago, ChristopherRyanWilkes said:

He mentions this, but a lot of these schools benefit from elitist “input” metrics, rather than output (student SAT, GPA, etc.). Of course due to their small size and hardworking student base, they also do well financially. I say hardworking because most of that stuff is learning the game and working your tail off in high school. Any recruiter will tell you your average State school candidate probably has a better personality. 

I agree completely.

Problem is AAU etc didn't originally think of itself as collecting the best teachers, but rather the institutions at the forefront of research . So the profile of the undergrads should play very little in this kind of designation. It of course matters in the publics perception, but that is something different entirely.

[Mean Green Matt]

2 hours ago, ChristopherRyanWilkes said:

He thinks they are one of the viable options based on Big 12 fit, but I’m not convinced. I think Big 12 ignores academics and goes with football in this next round and grabs Boise State and Memphis. They could easily stand pat as well. Any move to the MWC would make more sense if Boise State is gone. 

I don’t know why the Big 12 would do anything. They just reloaded. Anyone they could add dilutes the brand and payouts. The teams they just added do that to a lesser extent. 

[keith]

3 hours ago, PlummMeanGreen said:

I have been pushing for the MWC even before TCU got in it, but what do I know.  That’s no lie—ask SUMG how I’ve wanted this for UNT a long time.  I want UNT where SMU ain’t. 
 

Exactly.  We already play SMU.  We don’t need it to be a conference game.  

[PlummMeanGreen]

Anymore scientific studies like this one & it will be recommended that we drop our football down to intramural sports & then tell us to plow over, sack & salt the Mean Green Village.  
DAMMIT! JUST WIN, NORTH TEXAS & CUT THRU ALL THE BULLSHIT.

🦅

Edited October 3, 2021 by PlummMeanGreen

[Mike Jackson]

25 minutes ago, keith said:

Exactly.  We already play SMU.  We don’t need it to be a conference game.  

Having SMU as a conference game opens up a non-conference game slot.  It also makes consistent game date easier.  You could move the game to late in the year to spur attendance for both teams.  Hell even if we are out of the post season picture but not a total disaster I am showing up to see if we can play spoiler to SMU in a late November rivalry game.  I bet some SMU fans would feel similar if the roles were reversed in a particularly good season for UNT.   Also with that non-conference slot we might be able to get series going with TCU.  I would love to see something like the Commander’s Cup the service academies pass around for the DFW area FBS schools.  Maybe a Golden Triangle Trophy.  

[Rudy]

1 minute ago, Mike Jackson said:

Having SMU as a conference game opens up a non-conference game slot.  It also makes consistent game date easier.  You could move the game to late in the year to spur attendance for both teams.  Hell even if we are out of the post season picture but not a total disaster I am showing up to see if we can play spoiler to SMU in a late November rivalry game.  I bet some SMU fans would feel similar if the roles were reversed in a particularly good season for UNT.   Also with that non-conference slot we might be able to get series going with TCU.  I would love to see something like the Commander’s Cup the service academies pass around for the DFW area FBS schools.  Maybe a Golden Triangle Trophy.  

Emmitt and I have been talking about that for years. It would be called the "Middle Finger" trophy. And yes, it would be a giant middle finger. 

[Mike Jackson]

No matter what point you bring up this:

The school presidents for the remaining schools in C-USA, AAC, Sun Belt should come together and determine a geographic friendly conference for each. Leaving it to the commissioners is bound to create more losers than winners.

-Cyrus

_________________________________________\_
 
In this round of re-alignment I am not optimistic that UNT will find itself in a better position if left up to the conference leadership.

 

[PlummMeanGreen]

21 minutes ago, Mike Jackson said:

No matter what point you bring up this:

The school presidents for the remaining schools in C-USA, AAC, Sun Belt should come together and determine a geographic friendly conference for each. Leaving it to the commissioners is bound to create more losers than winners.

-Cyrus

_________________________________________\_
 
In this round of re-alignment I am not optimistic that UNT will find itself in a better position if left up to the conference leadership.

 

From a reliable source North Texas was closer than most know with the MWC thing this time around.   It’s just few expected all 4 MWC schools to stay put.  Gut feeling is that it surprised MWC Commissioner Craig Thompson, too.