This is how it will go down

[ColoradoEagle]

3 minutes ago, El Paso Eagle said:

As soon as these G5 changes happen, the SEC will add more teams and then everything will start all over. Hell, I just wish the top 30-50 teams would go ahead and form their own Football conference, or the NFL would just set up a AAA style farm system and start paying players so we can get through this mess.

 

The SEC is already at 16. Seeing them go to 18 or 20 would be wild. Not out of the realm of possibility, I would just assume that the PAC12, B1G, and ACC all get to 16 first.

[El Paso Eagle]

2 minutes ago, untjim1995 said:

The thing that the MWC commissioner and their TV partners will see with UTEP. Big school, big city, bowl game connection, and a history of being in a conference with a lot of these current MWC teams in the past. La Tech loses to UTEP in all of those.

The Sun Bowl and UTEP have no connection other than the game being played at the Sun Bowl (which UTEP did not control until 2001). If there had been any chance for UTEP to get it’s conference connected to the Bowl game they would not be in CUSA

If UTEP could put successful teams on the field they would probably average 35K-40K, but I have seen nothing that makes me thin their current president gives a rats ass about athletics.

[MCMLXXX]

With Hawaii being football only the conference could add Grand Canyon for all other sports.

Also the Basketball Tourney likely would be in Vegas.

[PlummMeanGreen]

3 hours ago, TheColonyEagle said:

I'll take that MWC all day long over that AAC. Man....how far the AAC will have fallen.

   3 hours ago,  Coach Andy Mac said: 

AAC

West: Air Force, CSU, Tulsa, Navy, SMU, Memphis

East: UAB, Charlotte, ECU, USF, Temple, Tulane

MWC

West: SDSU, Boise State, SJSU, Fresno State, UNLV, Nevada, Hawaii

Mountain: USU, Wyoming, UNM, Rice, UTEP, UTSA, North Texas

_______________________________

Charlotte makes no sense & no cents.  SMU’ers will freak with a school in AAC with a (is it) 15,000 seat stadium?  Of course, they’ll all say they will expand. 

Agree, TCC, I’ll take that too.👍👍 

Besides with Keyboard Sports Warriors, is Boise that sure a thing with the Big 12 Light?  

I’m not sure how SMU could ever begin to call the above version of AAC as a win since they want in the Big 12 Light as it is.
 

•••. See North Texas, all we have to do is take a 2 year sabbatical from football;  start top-loading with NCAA -sanctioned recruits who’ll be 30 by the time they graduate, add 15,000 more seats to Apogee, win in a weak football conference 3-4 years in a row & WALA!  TAKE US!  WE’RE YOURS—BIG 12 LIGHT! 🙄

😎••• The P-Fivers are probably getting a big kick out of all this.😌

Edited September 30, 2021 by PlummMeanGreen

[NorthTexan95]

21 minutes ago, El Paso Eagle said:

As soon as these G5 changes happen, the SEC will add more teams and then everything will start all over. Hell, I just wish the top 30-50 teams would go ahead and form their own Football conference, or the NFL would just set up a AAA style farm system and start paying players so we can get through this mess.

 

The fun really begins when the SEC starts kicking out bottom teams so remaining teams don't split the pie as much.

[PlummMeanGreen]

10 minutes ago, NorthTexan95 said:

The fun really begins when the SEC starts kicking out bottom teams so remaining teams don't split the pie as much.

Besides Temple, never heard of a school getting kicked out of a FBS conference.

[untjim1995]

2 minutes ago, El Paso Eagle said:

As soon as these G5 changes happen, the SEC will add more teams and then everything will start all over. Hell, I just wish the top 30-50 teams would go ahead and form their own Football conference, or the NFL would just set up a AAA style farm system and start paying players so we can get through this mess.

 

The NFL won't do that because it costs too much and they know that the college game will always provide more visibility.

What I do think is probable within the next 10-20 years is the Top Revenue Schools leaving the NCAA, so as to create that Football League you reference above. Honestly, it would make sense. Since 1980, the national champions have been these schools: Georgia, Clemson, Penn State, Miami, BYU, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Colorado, Alabama, Florida State, Nebraska, Florida, Michigan, Tennessee, Ohio State, LSU, USC, Texas, and Auburn. Georgia Tech and Washington have also claimed a title from the Coaches poll. That's 21 teams. 

College football needs to realign itself drastically for two huge reasons: competitiveness and boredom. Since 1998, when the BCS system got started, thru last season, these are teams that have played in the title game/playoff system that haven't won a title: Va Tech, Michigan State,  and Oregon (twice). Basically, 24 teams have been anywhere close to a title over the last 40+ years by the AP and Coaches Poll. Out of 66, when you include BYU...out of a grand total of 130 teams. Revenue matters, as does stadium size, and conference affiliation.  

There are about 30-40 schools who should be playing football at the highest level. And about 50-75 schools who should be playing college football as we know it.

[Mean Green Matt]

21 minutes ago, MCMLXXX said:

With Hawaii being football only the conference could add Grand Canyon for all other sports.

Also the Basketball Tourney likely would be in Vegas.

We can’t even get fans to drive to Frisco. 

[ColoradoEagle]

7 minutes ago, Mean Green Matt said:

We can’t even get fans to drive to Frisco. 

[Arkstfan]

As we age we start processing less new information and rely on what we already know. It’s why you have people sneering at Millenials and Gen Z over college costs telling them to work part-time like they did, unaware that won’t produce enough income. 
 

Back when the WAC tried to get UNT a high official pushed hard to join. When a Sun Belt affiliated person called to find out why UNT was leaving the person talked of better recognized teams, the man asked the UNT official to tell him who was in WAC and he recited members of MWC. 
 

The University of Missouri Kansas City actually moved to WAC citing recognition and quickly crawled back to Summit. 
 

As constituted today with UAB probably leaving with a player to be named later, TXST, UTA, ULM would all be likely be glad to join. After that it would take massive changes. 
 

During the dark days at AState people would declare some past event as something to promote and I’d have to explain, that was 20 years ago, it means nothing to a 17 year old prospect. 10 years ago is a long time in recruiting. 
 

Sun Belt is risking running afoul of that natural recency bias chasing USM. 
 

An industry built on the whims of people 16-18 years old for performance has a lot of recency bias while attendance, donations and viewership revenue tend to be built over decades, makes it hard to sustain quality because it takes time for revenue to catch up to strong performance 

[Arkstfan]

23 minutes ago, PlummMeanGreen said:

Besides Temple, never heard of a school getting kicked out of a FBS conference.

UTPA left Sun Belt to avoid being booted. UNO left ahead of being booted for not meeting membership standards. 

[Arkstfan]

36 minutes ago, NorthTexan95 said:

The fun really begins when the SEC starts kicking out bottom teams so remaining teams don't split the pie as much.

Buying out their equity and dealing with litigation probably not going to be worth it. 

[Monkeypox]

6 minutes ago, Arkstfan said:

Buying out their equity and dealing with litigation probably not going to be worth it. 

This is the sticky bit I can't quite wrap my head around. I don't see a legitimate future for, say, 64 teams. But I don't know how the top end of these conferences forming extricate themselves from the bottom end. Sure, it was pretty easy this time around for UT-OU, but I don't know if the avenue is going to be there for the SEC/ACC/Big10 to get out of all their affiliations.

I mean, is there a way where they all leave en masse without kicking anyone out? Could they all one day just say "Naw, you guys can have the SEC/ACC/Big10/Pac12.... we're forming the SUPER LEAGUE. See ya!"

[untjim1995]

1 minute ago, Monkeypox said:

This is the sticky bit I can't quite wrap my head around. I don't see a legitimate future for, say, 64 teams. But I don't know how the top end of these conferences forming extricate themselves from the bottom end. Sure, it was pretty easy this time around for UT-OU, but I don't know if the avenue is going to be there for the SEC/ACC/Big10 to get out of all their affiliations.

I mean, is there a way where they all leave en masse without kicking anyone out? Could they all one day just say "Naw, you guys can have the SEC/ACC/Big10/Pac12.... we're forming the SUPER LEAGUE. See ya!"

In reality, their need to be Leagues, not conferences. 48 Power Schools

Western League: USC, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, ASU, Utah, BYU, Colorado, TX Tech, and Kansas

MidWest: Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, ND, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, and Penn State

Southern: Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, LSU, Alabama, Auburn, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, Louisville

Eastern League: Miami, FSU, Florida, Georgia, Clemson, South Carolina, UNC, NC State, WVU, Virginia, Va Tech, and Pitt

 

Obviously, you can find or argue about others, but those 4 Leagues would have 12 teams to roll with and use their higher revenue streams to compete with one another.

[Monkeypox]

1 hour ago, untjim1995 said:

In reality, their need to be Leagues, not conferences. 48 Power Schools

Western League: USC, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, ASU, Utah, BYU, Colorado, TX Tech, and Kansas

MidWest: Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, ND, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, and Penn State

Southern: Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, LSU, Alabama, Auburn, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, Louisville

Eastern League: Miami, FSU, Florida, Georgia, Clemson, South Carolina, UNC, NC State, WVU, Virginia, Va Tech, and Pitt

 

Obviously, you can find or argue about others, but those 4 Leagues would have 12 teams to roll with and use their higher revenue streams to compete with one another.

Sure, I've played with the models and stuff with anywhere from 32-50 teams, but the question still is HOW and WHEN do they get there legally/contractually/however?

[rcade]

4 hours ago, untbowler said:

Facts:

Sun Belt is much higher in pecking order than CUSA right now and that is what matters, they have better $$$ and better TV currently thanks to a more forward sighted Commissioner.

The Sun Belt doesn't have more money than CUSA. Every Sun Belt school has lower yearly revenue than UNT's $40 million, according to USA Today, and both conferences have catastrophically bad TV deals that pay roughly the same per year. The Sun Belt does have better TV in terms of viewership by virtue of being on ESPN and ESPN+ instead of Stadium.

https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances

[denton_days]

CLT has a larger budget than us, and has a great potential ‘market’ - not a bad snag for a growing program tbh

[Mean Green Matt]

1 hour ago, rcade said:

The Sun Belt doesn't have more money than CUSA. Every Sun Belt school has lower yearly revenue than UNT's $40 million, according to USA Today, and both conferences have catastrophically bad TV deals that pay roughly the same per year. The Sun Belt does have better TV in terms of viewership by virtue of being on ESPN and ESPN+ instead of Stadium.

https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances

Doesn’t our revenue include a blank check from the university to make budget?

[Monkeypox]

11 minutes ago, Mean Green Matt said:

Doesn’t our revenue include a blank check from the university to make budget?

Yes, you do have to look a little further into the budget stuff than just quoting revenue, but if your school is cutting a check, that means your school is willing to cut the check. Nobody is griping that more than half of UH's revenue is their university funding as they're taking their Big12 invite.

Also, I believe most of the Sun Belt use University funding, some to a higher degree than we do.

But that's why I've pointed out our two issues when it comes to our revenue/athletics budget - overall ticket sales and yearly contributions. We're not going to increase our student fees and we shouldn't siphon more money from the school.  We need to get butts in the stands (for all sports) and increase our donor base.

So it's a bit of a double-edged sword. It's certainly better to have student fees and financial support from the University than not... but it would be great if we didn't need them so much or they weren't such a high percentage of our overall revenue.

 

 

[Arkstfan]

6 hours ago, Monkeypox said:

This is the sticky bit I can't quite wrap my head around. I don't see a legitimate future for, say, 64 teams. But I don't know how the top end of these conferences forming extricate themselves from the bottom end. Sure, it was pretty easy this time around for UT-OU, but I don't know if the avenue is going to be there for the SEC/ACC/Big10 to get out of all their affiliations.

I mean, is there a way where they all leave en masse without kicking anyone out? Could they all one day just say "Naw, you guys can have the SEC/ACC/Big10/Pac12.... we're forming the SUPER LEAGUE. See ya!"

The P5 was 65 teams. With Texas and OU ditching Big XII for all intents and purposes we are down to 58 power teams. 

[Monkeypox]

2 minutes ago, Arkstfan said:

The P5 was 65 teams. With Texas and OU ditching Big XII for all intents and purposes we are down to 58 power teams. 

Yeah, I get that, but I see a lot of people talking about this ending up with 4x16 or whatever. If 64 teams were legitimately bringing in the money, UT and OU wouldn't have separated themselves.

So, in my mind, you've got, let's say 40 top teams that eventually need to break away. Is there an avenue for that that doesn't take 10+ years or a bunch of lawsuits?

[ChiefTenBeers2015]

There was an article on ESPN recently that took a look at what a 12 team playoff would look like going back to ‘12 and guess the only conference that would not have had a bid?  That’s right - CUSA.  
Top 6 conference champions and 6 highest ranked teams.  No team from CUSA would have represented.  Over the last 8 years.  
12 team CFB formant gives teams a path - go undefeated or have one loss, win your conference, play and beat top 15 team and you’re in - except for the CUSA.  

[untjim1995]

1 hour ago, ChiefTenBeers2015 said:

There was an article on ESPN recently that took a look at what a 12 team playoff would look like going back to ‘12 and guess the only conference that would not have had a bid?  That’s right - CUSA.  
Top 6 conference champions and 6 highest ranked teams.  No team from CUSA would have represented.  Over the last 8 years.  
12 team CFB formant gives teams a path - go undefeated or have one loss, win your conference, play and beat top 15 team and you’re in - except for the CUSA.  

It’s just a terrible league with awful leadership and vision. Facebook and Stadium are the two conference TV channels? Seriously, the setup, the teams being mostly picked because of market size, the commissioner…it’s just a trash league. 

[keith]

Sometimes changing conferences is all about who you want to be associated with.  Sometimes it’s who you want to get away from.  And sometimes it’s a little of both. 

[outoftown]

14 hours ago, Mean Green Matt said:

We can’t even get fans to drive to Frisco. 

I can't be the only one who would rather spend time in Vegas than in Frisco.