Is the MWC Better for UNT

Monkeypox · September 29, 2021

THE number one factor in our home attendance is how good we are.

After that, it's kind of a hodge-podge of location/fanbase/how good the opponent is. I shudder to think how few would show up to a late season game against F_U if we were 1-whatever. We'd be sniffing 10k with our best in-state opponents.

So the best combination is always about us being good first. We can get 20-25k if we don't suck ass.

The next important thing, in my mind, is good nearby opponents. The problem is that UTEP, UTSA, Rice, La Tech are all subject to the same fan malaise we are. If La Tech/UTSA/UTEP/Rice are good AND we're good, that's the perfect combination for attendance.

So you have to see it from their perspective as well. UTSA fans aren't any more likely to travel up here for an ass-whooping than our fans are to travel down there for one. But in either case, both are still more likely travel to the other, in a vacuum, than say, Marshall or FAU.

1) We have to be good

2) Opponent has to be good enough for their fans to travel (or a national brand P5 or service academy)

2a) Opponent has to be close enough for their fans to travel

Green Otaku · September 29, 2021

1 hour ago, keith said:

I doubt many would care about UTSA if we found ourselves in different conferences. Sorta like MTSU. Don't care if we play them or not. If we were looking for OOC games neither would be high on the list to fill out the schedule.

Agree. They just happen to be the closest to a rival in our conference due to proximity. If they weren't in the same conference most wouldn't care. It just further illustrates the point of how little we are tied to our opponents.

Monkeypox · September 29, 2021

3 minutes ago, ADLER said:

You're right, maybe I'm wildly oblivious. But then again...

https://www.deseret.com/2021/9/28/22698868/reports-2-schools-close-to-leaving-mwc-for-aac-boise-state-waiting-and-hoping-for-big-12-invite

https://nevadasportsnet.com/news/reporters/report-colorado-state-air-force-poised-to-leave-mountain-west-for-aac

https://www.si.com/college/2021/09/28/colorado-state-air-force-college-football-aac-expansion

https://thespun.com/aac/aac-reportedly-eyeing-2-schools-for-expansion-colorado-state-air-force

https://www.heartlandcollegesports.com/2021/09/28/air-force-colorado-state-close-to-joining-aac-report/

https://www.coloradoan.com/story/sports/csu/football/2021/09/28/colorado-state-may-join-aac-leave-mountain-west-national-reports/5903065001/

Well you could post a hundred links if you want to, but the reports are all from the same source - Brett McMurphy. It's certainly possible that those two are leaving to join the AAC. But it's literally McMurphy said it, Norlander confirming that McMurphy said it, and then a bunch of other places running with it. And I don't know how reliable Brett McMurphy is.

I don't doubt that the AAC courted them. Again, at one point everyone was talking that the AAC was going to GET teams from the Big 12 (HAHAHAHAHAHA!). They're going to court teams from wherever they can, and they're on their 3rd round of asks at this point. Currently, it's the MWC, and people are certainly unhappy with leadership there and their current media deal, so they might be ripe for the plucking.

MOST places are saying "CSU and Air Force are working out a deal with AAC, but it's not done yet," and Norlander reports that there isn't agreement that going to the AAC is the best move (which would tell me it's not a done deal). Then there's guys with a 4k sub Youtube Channel saying it's a done deal. Idk how much is real and how much is wish fulfillment and how much is posturing.

So I mean, I'm fine waiting and seeing what happens, but that's because I'm just another dude on the internet. I hope to hell our administration is being more proactive in searching for the best deal for our program, even if it's only in the short-term, because I only believe in the short-term when it comes to the current college football structure. Get as much money as you can as soon as you can, because it's all gonna dry up if you aren't pulling eyeballs.

And guess what, the only teams pulling real eyeballs in this whole realignment business are the two that left for the SEC. The rest are just fighting over the scraps at this point.

ADLER · September 29, 2021

Win. That's the strategy. I wonder why no school has ever thought of that?

Sorry Monkeypox, I'm not trying to bust chops on anyone, but many on this board need to memorize a simple truth...

WINNING IS A GOAL, NOT A STRATEGY

What we need to be concerned with is what it takes to win, scheduling to win, hiring to win, recruiting to win, building facilities to win, bringing enough fan support to win, properly promoting our brand, and preparing for future opportunities.

We're good with some of those things, and horrible with others. Fix them and winning happens, it's a culture paradigm. Good enough to get by is not good enough to become better. It's why 5 years from now Alabama will be a good program and Kansas will be a bad one.

Monkeypox · September 29, 2021

19 minutes ago, ADLER said:

Win. That's the strategy. I wonder why no school has ever thought of that?

Sorry Monkeypox, I'm not trying to bust chops on anyone, but many on this board need to memorize a simple truth...

WINNING IS A GOAL, NOT A STRATEGY

What we need to be concerned with is what it takes to win, scheduling to win, hiring to win, recruiting to win, building facilities to win, bringing enough fan support to win, properly promoting our brand, and preparing for future opportunities.

We're good with some of those things, and horrible with others. Fix them and winning happens, it's a culture paradigm. Good enough to get by is not good enough to become better. It's why 5 years from now Alabama will be a good program and Kansas will be a bad one.

Oh, so we need to schedule and recruit and hire and build to win?! I wonder why no school has ever thought of that?

So how are we recruiting incorrectly? Who SHOULD we hire? What facilities do we need and how are we to raise the money to build them? How are we not promoting our brand? In what way should we be preparing for future opportunities? If you actually had these (real) answers (meaning not more message board blather), you'd be the first.

Coming up with those answers and solutions would be actual strategy. You haven't said anything more than WINNING MATTERS, you just said it with more words.

Besides, whoever said winning WAS a strategy?

All I was talking about was what matters for attendance, because all the time I hear how fans will get more fired up for X team vs Y team, when really our home attendance boils down entirely to how good we are/how likely we are to win. We're a big school, and our attendance tops out at less than 75% of our current enrollment.

Now, to some extent, it DOES matter for us if we have UTSA or UTEP or SMU or La Tech on our schedule, IF we aren't garbage on the field. So it's still better to have them than not. But it doesn't matter a whole hell of a lot when we are bad at football. If we're good, however, we can get a bump of about 10-15% for those teams vs a team from halfway across the country.

Point being, I am telling people how it is, and what I say can be verified by looking back at our home attendance numbers over the course of about 20 years. You're just ranting.

MeanGreenTexan · September 29, 2021

38 minutes ago, Monkeypox said:

Well you could post a hundred links if you want to, but the reports are all from the same source - Brett McMurphy. It's certainly possible that those two are leaving to join the AAC. But it's literally McMurphy said it, Norlander confirming that McMurphy said it, and then a bunch of other places running with it. And I don't know how reliable Brett McMurphy is.

I don't doubt that the AAC courted them. Again, at one point everyone was talking that the AAC was going to GET teams from the Big 12 (HAHAHAHAHAHA!). They're going to court teams from wherever they can, and they're on their 3rd round of asks at this point. Currently, it's the MWC, and people are certainly unhappy with leadership there and their current media deal, so they might be ripe for the plucking.

MOST places are saying "CSU and Air Force are working out a deal with AAC, but it's not done yet," and Norlander reports that there isn't agreement that going to the AAC is the best move (which would tell me it's not a done deal). Then there's guys with a 4k sub Youtube Channel saying it's a done deal. Idk how much is real and how much is wish fulfillment and how much is posturing.

So I mean, I'm fine waiting and seeing what happens, but that's because I'm just another dude on the internet. I hope to hell our administration is being more proactive in searching for the best deal for our program, even if it's only in the short-term, because I only believe in the short-term when it comes to the current college football structure. Get as much money as you can as soon as you can, because it's all gonna dry up if you aren't pulling eyeballs.

And guess what, the only teams pulling real eyeballs in this whole realignment business are the two that left for the SEC. The rest are just fighting over the scraps at this point.

Precisely. McMurphy also leaked the MWC is looking at NT & Tulsa, but I have no idea how reliable that is either.
And of course the MWC should only be looked at temporarily. Things move around. That's normal! Ideally, when the Big12 implodes and the "P4" separate even more, there'll be a more permanent structure created for the remainders. By then, NT might hopefully put ourselves in a position where we can enter into a more-permanent league with closer rivals like SMU, Houston, TX Tech, TCU, Baylor, LATech, UTSA, Tulane, Tulsa (if they make it), KSSt, & Rice.

As a side, who do you think is leaking this info to McMurphy & Norlander? People from within the AAC! This is what good conference leadership/PR does. Pretend to leak information to show you're in a position of strength.
What's C-USA leaking? Frantic, fearful warnings/threats to existing members about how much it would cost to leave. Not things you would hope to see, like "We're looking to add App St., LALa, & Coastal Carolina..."

Monkeypox · September 29, 2021

21 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Precisely. McMurphy also leaked the MWC is looking at NT & Tulsa, but I have no idea how reliable that is either.
And of course the MWC should only be looked at temporarily. Things move around. That's normal! Ideally, when the Big12 implodes and the "P4" separate even more, there'll be a more permanent structure created for the remainders. By then, NT might hopefully put ourselves in a position where we can enter into a more-permanent league with closer rivals like SMU, Houston, TX Tech, TCU, Baylor, LATech, UTSA, Tulane, Tulsa (if they make it), KSSt, & Rice.

As a side, who do you think is leaking this info to McMurphy & Norlander? People from within the AAC! This is what good conference leadership/PR does. Pretend to leak information to show you're in a position of strength.
What's C-USA leaking? Frantic, fearful warnings/threats to existing members about how much it would cost to leave. Not things you would hope to see, like "We're looking to add App St., LALa, & Coastal Carolina..."

Agreed.

There's going to be a P4, and we aren't going to be included, no matter what. Neither will like 75% of FBS, and that's probably for the best.

We need to have the best affiliations and make the most money possible while we can. It's a complicated balance, and is completely in the hands of our Administration/AD right now.

Even before teams were poached from the AAC by the Big12, everyone knew it was going to happen. Aresco got IN FRONT of his conference losing members talking like they were gonna take on the remainders of the Big12. Is it an uphill battle that he's losing? Absolutely. But he's certainly doing the work to keep his conference together and make it as strong as possible. I mean, he's losing a good portion of his conference's value, but at least he's fighting. And he knows one important thing about how the media works - IF YOU KEEP TALKING, PEOPLE WILL START TO LISTEN. Even if it's nonsense, even if it doesn't happen, it will start to gain credence just from the frequency of the message. I mean UT/OU are leaving the Big 12, which just lost half its value, it back-filled with the most valuable programs it could, and all anybody is talking about is the AAC, because Aresco is just out there going "PEW PEW PEW! WILDCARD, BITCHES!"

The reason the MWC and CUSA are so vulnerable right now is weak leadership of both the conference and individual school levels. We aren't in quite the position the AAC was in, because it's actually harder to tell who's moving where/getting poached, since they've been throwing so much crap out there to see what sticks. But that's exactly what our leadership should be doing. Even the SBC is out there talking about who they're gonna take, when they haven't really been linked to any losses. That's how you do it.

Edited September 29, 2021 by Monkeypox

MeanGreenTexan · September 29, 2021

3 minutes ago, Monkeypox said:

Agreed.

There's going to be a P4, and we aren't going to be included, no matter what. Neither will like 75% of FBS, and that's probably for the best.

We need to have the best affiliations and make the most money possible while we can. It's a complicated balance, and is completely in the hands of our Administration/AD right now.

Even before teams were poached from the AAC by the Big12, everyone knew it was going to happen. Aresco got IN FRONT of his conference losing members talking like they were gonna take on the remainders of the Big12. Is it an uphill battle that he's losing? Absolutely. But he's certainly doing the work to keep his conference together and make it as strong as possible. I mean, he's losing a good portion of his conference's value, but at least he's fighting. And he knows one important thing about how the media works - IF YOU KEEP TALKING, PEOPLE WILL START TO LISTEN. Even if it's nonsense, even if it doesn't happen, it will start to gain credence just from the frequency of the message. I mean UT/OU are leaving the Big 12, which just lost half its value, it back-filled with the most valuable programs it could, and all anybody is talking about is the AAC, because Aresco is just out there going "PEW PEW PEW! WILDCARD, BITCHES!"

The reason the MWC and CUSA are so vulnerable right now is weak leadership of both the conference and individual school levels. We aren't in quite the position the AAC was in, because it's actually harder to tell who's moving where/getting poached, since they've been throwing so much crap out there to see what sticks. But that's exactly what our leadership should be doing. Even the SBC is out there talking about who they're gonna take, when they haven't really been linked to any losses. That's how you do it.

Heck, the SBC has the nuts to leak, "We're looking to take <X, Y, & Z teams> from C-USA"! That would be an asinine suggestion 3-4 years ago! But, here we are under Judy's leadership...

untjim1995 · September 30, 2021

I think the next moves in the coming years ahead will be to get to 64 power teams. I think Notre Dame will go all in with the ACC and they will also add WVU to get to 16. I think the B1G will add KU and ISU, eventually. And I still believe the PAC will add Tech, OSU, KSU, and probably UH.

I think the Big XII will be the new Big East and will get demoted down in a few years. By then, they’ll have Boise State, BYU, Memphis, TCU, Baylor, Cincy, UCF, and USF. The AAC will have SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, Temple, ECU, FAU, UAB, Colorado State, AFA, Navy, Army, and UTSA. The MWC will have Hawaii, SDSU, SJSU, Fresno State, Nevada, UNLV, Utah State, Wyoming, UNM, UTEP, UNT, and Rice. I’m certain the SBC will add Marshall, WKU, MUTS, and USM. No idea what happens to La Tech as they won’t play in a conference with ULM or ULL. Also, have no idea what happens with FIU, Charlotte, or ODU. Maybe SFA and SHSU move up, as well as Jacksonville State. Maybe the SBCUSA finally aligns geographically. But our path will be out west and it will bring us better revenues and conference mates than we have ever had.

ADLER · September 30, 2021

PODCAST: What Does The Future Of The Mountain West Look Like?

Per Mountain West Wire: "CSU and AFA aren't leaving for money. They expect the MWC will die when Boise and SDSU leave within the next few years."

Listen to the Podcast towards the bottom of the page titled

What will the Mountain West look like in the next five years?

Should we rush to join?

https://mwwire.com/2021/09/29/podcast-what-does-the-future-of-the-mountain-west-look-like/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Edited September 30, 2021 by ADLER

Mike Jackson · September 30, 2021

22 hours ago, Aquila_Viridis said:

It won't matter what conference we're in if we consistently lose more games than we win. That's all we've ever done, even in 1-AA. Until we establish a realistic expectation of winning more games than we lose, by doing so for several years, we won't be going anywhere but down. We have no foundation for sustained success. I'd even support dropping to FCS temporarily if it was based on a serious, demonstrated commitment by university leadership to consistently win at that level. After realizing that vision, then we would have a foundation on which to build. It would take several seasons of positive W-L.

I am 100% against dropping down to FCS. But I upvoted the post because it focused on the only thing that matters winning. If programs start winning here the money and conference affiliations will improve. Conference affiliation doesn’t matter if the program isn’t generating maximum possible revenue independent of conference payout.

We maximize revenue by having a winning football program and advancing in NCAA basketball tournaments in consecutive years. We need at least 4 winning seasons in football and ending the season ranked in the top 25 for 2 years. None of the potential here matters if management fails to capitalize on it.

Let’s look back 25 years, there were “rumors” the Big 8 was looking at us for expansion. Boise State was in our conference at the time and nobody knew who they were. They and other members of the Big Sky Conference circa 1996 have lapped us because they have won more since that time and improved their conference affiliation because of it.

So we want jump to a severely depleted MWC to be on ESPN and lose on TV more often? I am comparing the coverage these G5 leagues are getting for this coming weekend and the difference looks minimal except for the AAC. Is being on ESPN+ versus Stadium all that different? You know how you get clips of your team on TV? Win games and make big plays against relevant teams. (ie like Punt return against Arkansas). Beat UAB, SMU, La Tech, Marshall and Houston when you get them on the schedule . Then the conference realignment talk really becomes interesting.

TheReal_jayD · September 30, 2021

On 9/28/2021 at 3:50 PM, ADLER said:

The MWC loses SDSU and Boise State to the Big XII and Colorado State and Air Force to the AAC.

What's left? New Mexico, Wyoming, Fresno, and a bunch of crap that we don't want on our schedule.

No thanks. No f'n way would we be stupid enough to join that sinking ship. Maybe invite UNM to join UTEP in CUSA, but that's it.

well...

MeanGreenTexan · September 30, 2021

25 minutes ago, TheReal_jayD said:

well...

I think we all know that's until the big12 or Pac12 come calling, and they likely will.
I'm surprised the PAC12 has remained so silent.
But yeah, all the nonsense about either going to the AAC is just dumb.

I think maybe this release was a play to try and get CSU & Air Force to calm down & stay as well.

Mean Green Matt · September 30, 2021

I don’t see it as a guarantee that Boise and SDSU go to the Big 12.

MeanGreenTexan · September 30, 2021

1 minute ago, Mean Green Matt said:

I don’t see it as a guarantee that Boise and SDSU go to the Big 12.

I think Boise might go for it. I think SDSU is content with just staying competitive in football & B-ball in the MWC until the PAC12 expands. When they do, SDSU is as much of a shoo-in as any other school possibly could be.

Mean Green Matt · September 30, 2021

7 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

I think Boise might go for it. I think SDSU is content with just staying competitive in football & B-ball in the MWC until the PAC12 expands. When they do, SDSU is as much of a shoo-in as any other school possibly could be.

I should have been more clear. I don’t think it’s a guarantee the Big 12 invites them. It the Big 12 does invite them, they are both absolutely going.

MCMLXXX · September 30, 2021

2 hours ago, Mike Jackson said:

Let’s look back 25 years, there were “rumors” the Big 8 was looking at us for expansion. Boise State was in our conference at the time and nobody knew who they were. They and other members of the Big Sky Conference circa 1996 have lapped us because they have won more since that time and improved their conference affiliation because of it.

It was the Big West Conference that we were in with Boise from 1996-2000. Big 8 expansion rumors started several years earlier. The Big 12 started in 1996.

Green Otaku · September 30, 2021

38 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

I think Boise might go for it. I think SDSU is content with just staying competitive in football & B-ball in the MWC until the PAC12 expands. When they do, SDSU is as much of a shoo-in as any other school possibly could be.

SDSU are going to face a big roadblock from Berkley and UCLA. For those that don't know there are 2 university systems in California the UC system and the Cal State one. The CSU system was intentionally set up to be a lower level of university not offering doctorates and not focused on research. I'm not saying it won't happen, just that it's going to be a steep uphill battle. That's why they get talked about going to the Big12 so much, even they see it as their only chance.

MeanGreenTexan · September 30, 2021

32 minutes ago, Green Otaku said:

SDSU are going to face a big roadblock from Berkley and UCLA. For those that don't know there are 2 university systems in California the UC system and the Cal State one. The CSU system was intentionally set up to be a lower level of university not offering doctorates and not focused on research. I'm not saying it won't happen, just that it's going to be a steep uphill battle. That's why they get talked about going to the Big12 so much, even they see it as their only chance.

Hmm sounds like 2 against 10 to me.
I think if UCLA & Cal-Berkley are fine with being associated with WASt, ORSt, & AZSt academically, they'd be more than happy to have SDSU join.

Green Otaku · September 30, 2021

2 hours ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Hmm sounds like 2 against 10 to me.
I think if UCLA & Cal-Berkley are fine with being associated with WASt, ORSt, & AZSt academically, they'd be more than happy to have SDSU join.

Maybe. I'm just saying there a good chance they have some resistance from the UC schools.

ADLER · October 1, 2021

Two very simple notes to remember:

If the Mountain West does not lose the five mentioned schools then they will have absolutely no interest in us.

If the Mountain West does lose the five mentioned schools then we should have absolutely no interest in the Mountain West.

How is that confusing?

.

Edited October 2, 2021 by ADLER

wardly · October 1, 2021

3 hours ago, ADLER said:

Two very simple notes to remember:

If the Mountain West does not lose the five mentioned schools then they should have absolutely no interest in us.

If the Mountain West does lose the five mentioned schools then we should have absolutely no interest in the Mountain West.

How is that confusing?

A dream without a plan is just a dream. Hopefully our administration has a plan, or maybe several of them.

keith · October 1, 2021

8 hours ago, Mean Green Matt said:

I don’t see it as a guarantee that Boise and SDSU go to the Big 12.

Both really want the Pac12, but not sure that’s in the cards…at least not yet.

Monkeypox · October 1, 2021

I don’t think SDSU or Boise have any place in the Pac12 waiting for them. Big12 is probably the best they can both hope for.

As previously mentioned, the Cal schools won’t take SDSU, and they’d likely also be blocked by Stanford and USC as well for academic and market reasons. The rest of the conference won’t take them due to the academics (which are kept below R1 because that belongs to the UC system). And the conference already owns San Diego the way UT/OU/A&M own DFW.

And for those wondering about academics, the PAC has 12 of the 15 R1 schools in the Western US (only Hawaii, CSU, and New Mexico left). The next closest that aren’t already in a P5…? Houston*, UNT, and Rice. I see the Pac12 taking Tech and Houston before taking SDSU and Boise. Which is to say it’s not happening.

And it’s not that they won’t make an exception to the academic standards, it’s that they aren’t gonna do it for programs that aren’t absolute behemoths when it comes to revenue. And that’s not Boise and SDSU.

So Boise and SDSU believe they are better off in the MWC than the depleted AAC while they hopefully await a call from the Big12-14-32. No surprise there.

untjim1995 · October 1, 2021

It never ceases to amaze me at just how short-sighted our fans can be about going west. Most of those MWC schools have no better option. It’s not the AAC, I can tell you that, even if the AFA and CSU leave. BTW, terrible idea if they do. They’re gonna leave behind all of their rivalries to go play Temple and East Carolina and SMU? Stupid.

Boise had the only opportunity to move to the Big XII and probably will in the years ahead, assuming that league ever has to replace anyone. The PAC will go after new markets in the CST before they go get a SDSU or Boise State, just from the reasons stated. They’d go after KU, ISU, TT, OSU, and UH before they’d get either of the other two mentioned.

I do think that the MWC will need to replace the two CO schools and that’s where it becomes obvious that the Texas CUSA schools come into play. The MWC would have 14 teams and that gives them new markets in DFW, Houston, San Antonio, and El Paso to replace the state of Colorado.