CBS’s Dennis Dodd says UNT on AAC List

ColoradoEagle · September 17, 2021

12 minutes ago, ColoradoEagle said:

Quoting myself here instead of muddying up an already long post. The one thing I noticed putting this all together is that if anyone were going based on winning alone, La Tech is #1 and it's not even close. They've had the most wins in each of the categories the past 10 years. I expect them to become more and more a part of the realignment discussion.

Rowdy · September 17, 2021

1 hour ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

I can't really speak to UTSA's current financial situation. Maybe @Rowdy could? And I absolutely agree UTSA's facilities are holding them back some.

The new RACE facility is purely off donations. The AD is doing a fine job turning those around. They spit out plans the other day for a new basketball and baseball facilities (finally), but dont know when that will be happening. Its a fact, that the facilities are hurting us. Convocation center is terrible and needs to be addressed, same with baseball. I know lots of UNT fans hate the Alamodome, but theres lots that like it. Has the space for attendance growth and is something to hold up until we know what we want on campus. In my opinion, getting a look from MWC or AAC is mostly from being in a big market in Texas and a little recent success. With that said, I wouldn't mind a SBC and CUSA merger if MWC and AAC falls through. Being able to play Texas State, UNT, UTEP, Rice, LA Tech etc... every year at least brings familiarity to fans and helps put butts in seats. Anyways, I got a little off topic. We have same financial struggles like every CUSA school. Donations have just been picking up in recent due to the work or Dr. Compos.

ColoradoEagle · September 17, 2021

5 minutes ago, TheColonyEagle said:

Love it.

That's good stuff....however....it kind of shows the power of perception no? Given all that, why is UNT ignored by the media when it comes to conference talk? And I agree with your analysis.

The media is surface level. Also it's a bit of a feedback loop. If someone starts saying "UTSA is a sleeping giant who could dominate San Antonio," then they're all going to buy into that to some degree, despite there really being nothing to back that statement up other than ~potential~.

And honestly, I'm not even trying to pick on UTSA. As Rowdy said above, we all have struggles unique to our schools. My aim is more to show that the narrative in the media of UTSA being the next big thing is not backed up by cold, hard facts. It's based purely on a "What If..." situation.

Edited September 17, 2021 by ColoradoEagle

Monkeypox · September 17, 2021

3 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

I mean, outside of the gridiron results, which as we've discussed, can swing wildly from season to season, What doesn't NT bring to the table for either conference? Surely we'll wind up in one of the two. If we're stuck in C-USA after all of this shuffling, something went horribly wrong, and we're in serious trouble.

Well, I think it comes down to this.

The AAC may not want us due to overlap with SMU and market share (if we had more stable ticket sales or a stronger donor base, I don't think this would even be a consideration). There are enough CUSA schools that deliver close to what we do that also give them something different.

The MWC may decide not to expand, which just splits their pie. Keep in mind that they only recently inked their deal, and it's not that great ($4m per year). Does adding UNT/UTSA/UTEP/whoever get CBS/Fox back at the table? I really don't know how this works, but unless the MWC is getting poached, they are probably better off standing pat.

TIgreen01 · September 17, 2021

There are a lot of longtime posters in this thread who seem to have forgotten that we got “promoted” to CUSA right on the heels of the Dodge fiasco. We were UNQUESTIONABLY fielding the worst performing football team in FBS. It didn’t matter. We had built Apogee and finally appeared to be committed to athletics. Now we have 10 years of history showing continued commitment through facilities going up, coaching salaries that are competitive with the top of G5, new sports that win (softball) and have a basketball program on the rise.

Everyone needs to settle down. UNT is more attractive today than it has ever been. Certainly MUCH MORE attractive than we were the last time we were promoted. My bet is we go west, or that crazy total regionalization of g5 finally happens.

Mean Green 93-98 · September 17, 2021

14 minutes ago, TIgreen01 said:

There are a lot of longtime posters in this thread who seem to have forgotten that we got “promoted” to CUSA right on the heels of the Dodge fiasco. We were UNQUESTIONABLY fielding the worst performing football team in FBS. It didn’t matter.

No offense, but that is a little misleading. I suppose in a sense it was "on the heels of the Dodge fiasco." But when we were invited, Dan McCarney had taken over, and appeared to have us headed in the right direction.

ColoradoEagle · September 17, 2021

6 minutes ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

No offense, but that is a little misleading. I suppose in a sense it was "on the heels of the Dodge fiasco." But when we were invited, Dan McCarney had taken over, and appeared to have us headed in the right direction.

Nah, McCarney had us at 5 and 4 wins the two seasons prior to the CUSA invite. We weren't the worst in FBS, but we weren't far off.

keith · September 17, 2021

51 minutes ago, ColoradoEagle said:

I spend half my days working with spreadsheets, so I wanted to quantify this in a way that isn't colored in perceptions. I made a comparison in 10 categories. I weighted in the following order:

Football - 30%

Basketball - 15%

Facilities - 15%

Financials - 15%

Location/Media Market - 15%

It Factor/Perception 10%* - *I actually doubled this number just to make a point

All categories are a ranking out of a possible 10 with some ties. Highest rank gets 10 points, lowest gets 1. This applies to all except facilities, location, and media market. Those are calculated as follows:

Facilities - I did my best to rank these based on prior knowledge and pictures only. Schools could get up to 10 points for a new stadium. 2 points were removed if the school doesn't own the stadium. 2 points were removed (red) if no IPF. I left UAB at 8, despite their IPF not really being an IPF.

Location - If the school is within the footprint, they automatically get 2 (poor UTEP). If they're next to a major international airport, 8 points are added. If they're near secondary airport, 6 points are added. If they're near a regional airport, 4 points.

Media Market - This is the only category to go to 100. Schools get a percentage based on their market size compared with the largest DMA of the options (DFW).

Just to talk for a moment about the "It Factor" and Perception...I think this is vastly overrated. Short of a team coming off back to back top 25 appearances, I'm not sure why anyone would gravitate towards one school more than the other for a realignment that could last years or even decades.

That said, not only did I make it 10% of the ranking, I doubled the points as an added handicap. You'll notice the only school I marked worse than UNT is Charlotte in that category. This is not justification for people's reactions, so much as trying to work perceived bias into what will no doubt be an overall picture these conferences look at.

So with all of that out of the way...

*Quick note for Rice financials. They're undisclosed, so I gave them half a point for each. Could be higher or lower, but not really fair to assume either direction.

Nice work. Glad one of the categories wasn't "Football wins in Opportunity Games." Hahaha.

GrandGreen · September 17, 2021

Does anyone really think the size of the market is still a major consideration for conference affiliation? Was not that the cornerstone for CUSA?

Conference administrators care about fans and/or potential fans. SMU and NT are way down the list in the DFW market behind UT, OU, A&M and maybe others.

They are interested in the number of fans, the money these fans contribute (Ryan anyone) and the potential to raise money. Unfortunately for NT, there is also still a premium on name recognition. Ease of travel, academics, and budget are important but secondary factors.

Lots of posts on this topic are "Woe is me (NT), NT just can not compete.

I believe NT is actually in the best position that they have ever been to be attractive to other conferences.

Look at a few statistics that compare NT with the teams that seem to be most mentioned as good candidates for better leagues. Hodgepodge of stats over last couple of years that directly make comparison between colleges.

Metro Area Populations (2018-19)

NT 7.6m

UAB 1.1

UTSA 2.5

FAU 6.1

Athletic Revenues

UNT 40.7m

UAB 36.5

FAU 36.3

UTSA 32.7

Enrollment (2020-21)

NT 40.8k

UAB 36.5

FAU 36.3

UTSA 33.6

College Ranking (US & World Report)

FAU 520

UAB 527

NT 677

UTSA 925

Football (announced attendance) 2019-20

UAB 24.7k

NT 21.4

UTSA 19.1

FAU 17.6

Without exhaustive research and a big belief in the numbers reported, I do believe this demonstrates that NT should be and will be in some conference entry discussions.

Edited September 17, 2021 by GrandGreen

TIgreen01 · September 17, 2021

5 minutes ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

No offense, but that is a little misleading. I suppose in a sense it was "on the heels of the Dodge fiasco." But when we were invited, Dan McCarney had taken over, and appeared to have us headed in the right direction.

So July 1, 2013 was the date our invitation was announced. So you’re right it wasn’t that same year. Now we know 2013 turned out to be a great year, but we were 5-7 in 2011 and 4-8 in 2012. Hardly showing that we had turned a corner.

Looking at 5 years leading up to that July 2013 date, we were 3-9 in 2010, 2-10 in 2009 and 1-11 in 2008. So we were slightly up, but the thing that people were really latching onto was that we had gotten out of Fouts and we hoped to see UNT match that with increased spending. We hadn’t really kicked up spending, but we have now. Today there is no question that UNT is committed to being a top tier school at least at the G5 level. Back in 2013 it was a hope.

ForneyGreen · September 17, 2021

6 hours ago, keith said:

Mountain West: North Texas and Tulsa are under consideration by the MWC.

This is the news that has intrigued me the most recently... a suggestion that UNT and Tulsa could be in discussions with the MWC.

Adding UNT and Tulsa would give the MWC 14 football-playing schools (if no schools left).

The most curious part of this suggestion to me is Tulsa. If they even slightly entertained a move to the MWC, then they must see the "new AAC" as the lesser of the 2 conferences.

MeanGreenTexan · September 17, 2021

3 minutes ago, ForneyGreen said:

This is the news that has intrigued me the most recently... a suggestion that UNT and Tulsa could be in discussions with the MWC.

Adding UNT and Tulsa would give the MWC 14 football-playing schools (if no schools left).

The most curious part of this suggestion to me is Tulsa. If they even slightly entertained a move to the MWC, then they must see the "new AAC" as the lesser of the 2 conferences.

The inclusion of Tulsa kinda makes me think it's not real, because Tulsa brings almost nothing to the table, and they're starting to feel the pinch when it comes to athletics budget. I would imagine the MWC looks at Tulsa kinda like they look at UTEP.

ColoradoEagle · September 17, 2021

10 minutes ago, ForneyGreen said:

The most curious part of this suggestion to me is Tulsa. If they even slightly entertained a move to the MWC, then they must see the "new AAC" as the lesser of the 2 conferences.

What doesn't make sense to me is UNT instead of SMU in this rumor. SMU has a much bigger athletics budget, more success on the field/court, and better academics. The only place where they lag us is in facilities, and barely. Only guess, if there's any truth to it, is that SMU told them to pound sand. That'd be a hard stance to take in this day and age.

southsideguy · September 18, 2021

Quick question if the MWC asks us out do we accept or wait for AAC to maybe come calling? Bird in the hand?

UPDATE POST GAME: Maybe the WAC will call us.

Edited September 19, 2021 by southsideguy

UNTLifer · September 18, 2021

7 hours ago, Rowdy said:

The new RACE facility is purely off donations. The AD is doing a fine job turning those around. They spit out plans the other day for a new basketball and baseball facilities (finally), but dont know when that will be happening. Its a fact, that the facilities are hurting us. Convocation center is terrible and needs to be addressed, same with baseball. I know lots of UNT fans hate the Alamodome, but theres lots that like it. Has the space for attendance growth and is something to hold up until we know what we want on campus. In my opinion, getting a look from MWC or AAC is mostly from being in a big market in Texas and a little recent success. With that said, I wouldn't mind a SBC and CUSA merger if MWC and AAC falls through. Being able to play Texas State, UNT, UTEP, Rice, LA Tech etc... every year at least brings familiarity to fans and helps put butts in seats. Anyways, I got a little off topic. We have same financial struggles like every CUSA school. Donations have just been picking up in recent due to the work or Dr. Compos.

Uh-oh @untjim1995the regional pandemic you hate has escaped the confines of those old bastards from North Texas.

MeanGreen01 · September 18, 2021

This is why we need to get as many friends, family, coworkers and alike to attend the games. Good turnouts and hopefully some good wins should continue to put us in a better place during these talks. Wish we could get into the American Conference.

97and03 · September 18, 2021

Does academics fit in the “it factor?”

I am not totally certain strong academics can get you in a conference but it might keep you out.

DentonStang · September 18, 2021

7 hours ago, ColoradoEagle said:

The only place where they lag us is in facilities, and barely.

What are you basing that on

ColoradoEagle · September 18, 2021

23 minutes ago, DentonStang said:

What are you basing that on

Mini IPF, Moody is probably a push with the SP after the renovation, Apogee is noticeably better than Ford. Mostly our facilities are just newer, thus slightly better and not wildly better.

Edited September 18, 2021 by ColoradoEagle

meaniegreenie · September 18, 2021

On 9/17/2021 at 9:34 AM, ColoradoEagle said:

To put a visual on this, and do some guessing, here's what you have:

~~Pie in the Sky, You had me at Hello (4 schools)~~
Arrives at the party, has a few drinks and looks around at the hotties:

Air Force

Boise State

Colorado State

San Diego State

~~Damn, She Said No. Plan B (1 school)~~
Midnight and the keg's getting lighter:

UAB

Need more to drive this boat (1-3 schools) (no particular order, guesses for the other 9 in italics) es
2 a.m. and the party's ending, saunters over to the group of slutty girls:

North Texas

UTSA

FAU

FIU

La Tech

Southern Miss

Rice

Charlotte

UTEP

Georgia State

Appalachian State

Louisiana

Modified for collegiate mindset

Edited September 18, 2021 by meaniegreenie

rcade · September 18, 2021

17 hours ago, ColoradoEagle said:

The only place where they lag us is in facilities, and barely.

SMU is way behind us in total alumni and alumni in DFW. SMU has 45,000 alumni in DFW and 117,000 overall, while we have 294,000 in DFW and 434,000 overall. Not the most important metric to consider, admittedly, but there is some sleeping giant potential if the Mean Green ever put together a run of excellence in football.

Cooke County Kid · September 18, 2021

When you look at the TOTAL picture we are in a pretty damn good position. We need to win more games and show the we are willing to continue our commitment to grow our athletic Department with upgraded facilities where needed, increase funding, maybe add Baseball and an increase in participation from our incredibly huge alumni base. Winning will make all of this much easier. Basketball is doing its part it is now time for football to do the same.

GO MEAN GREEN!!!
WIN GAMES!!!!!!!

Edited September 18, 2021 by Cooke County Kid