For the realignment junkies

[Arkstfan]

I’ve sent a lot texts and even emails (older people still like email). 
 

This is what I’ve learned. Mostly cryptic stuff you can read multiple ways. 
 

1. The AAC’s $7 million per team doesn’t hit until the back end of the contract and is basically off the table with departures. It’s currently $5 million per team and estimate is it will be $2.5 million to $3 million post-departure. 
 

2. People in the know are saying there is not enough money out there for presidents to bury the idea of regionalization. 
 

3. Fans have grudges. Fans look down on some programs because of the past. Few administrators have been around long enough to remember or know those things. They are looking at each other through the lens of the past 3-5 years. 
 

[TheColonyEagle]

21 minutes ago, Arkstfan said:

I’ve sent a lot texts and even emails (older people still like email). 
 

This is what I’ve learned. Mostly cryptic stuff you can read multiple ways. 
 

1. The AAC’s $7 million per team doesn’t hit until the back end of the contract and is basically off the table with departures. It’s currently $5 million per team and estimate is it will be $2.5 million to $3 million post-departure. 
 

2. People in the know are saying there is not enough money out there for presidents to bury the idea of regionalization. 
 

3. Fans have grudges. Fans look down on some programs because of the past. Few administrators have been around long enough to remember or know those things. They are looking at each other through the lens of the past 3-5 years. 
 

 

 

So common sense may actually prevail....

 

[Arkstfan]

Never lay money on common sense prevailing 😄

[TheColonyEagle]

1 minute ago, Arkstfan said:

Never lay money on common sense prevailing 😄

[ChristopherRyanWilkes]

My understanding is an article in the Athletic this morning says regionalization is likely out because the SBC sees itself as a better conference that can poach the scraps of whatever is left of CUSA after AAC expands. If North Texas misses the cut for AAC, this is the nightmare scenario. I'm not even sure where you go from there if all that's left standing is the bottom half of CUSA. FCS? Don't see any Sun Belt schools wanting to bolt for a lesser conference at that point.

That scenario makes the most sense to me considering expanded playoffs and streaming taking over for TV markets. The emphasis will be on performance. North Texas's string of bad hires may come back to bite it big time if, after spending all we have on facilities (and coaching for that matter), we still end up in the worst conference in FBS, essentially back to where we started 10 years ago... We are already basically there and just hoping for a lifeline from the AAC.

[southsideguy]

but but we have Judy

[ColoradoEagle]

10 minutes ago, ChristopherRyanWilkes said:

My understanding is an article in the Athletic this morning says regionalization is likely out because the SBC sees itself as a better conference that can poach the scraps of whatever is left of CUSA after AAC expands.

Depends on what's poached. If only three schools are taken from CUSA, then CUSA will poach 1 to 3 schools to replace and call it a day. If both AAC and MWC raid CUSA, then sure, the conference is dead and SBC will take the leftovers.

Regardless of how they see themselves, there's still a pecking order and SBC is at the bottom.

[ChristopherRyanWilkes]

Just now, ColoradoEagle said:

Depends on what's poached. If only three schools are taken from CUSA, then CUSA will poach 1 to 3 schools to replace and call it a day. If both AAC and MWC raid CUSA, then sure, the conference is dead and SBC will take the leftovers.

Regardless of how they see themselves, there's still a pecking order and SBC is at the bottom.

Recent history says otherwise. Based on performance, SBC has been a far superior conference to CUSA in football.  I would be very surprised if the poaching was the other way around. My guess is the top performers with decent facilities (App State, UAB, FAU, UTSA) are off to AAC and best of the rest in CUSA (SoMiss, ODU, Marshall, maybe LaTach) are off to SBC. No sources, just based on what has come out from established journalists, which to my knowledge is just the one article from the Athletic at this point.

[ColoradoEagle]

36 minutes ago, ChristopherRyanWilkes said:

Recent history says otherwise. Based on performance, SBC has been a far superior conference to CUSA in football.  I would be very surprised if the poaching was the other way around. My guess is the top performers with decent facilities (App State, UAB, FAU, UTSA) are off to AAC and best of the rest in CUSA (SoMiss, ODU, Marshall, maybe LaTach) are off to SBC. No sources, just based on what has come out from established journalists, which to my knowledge is just the one article from the Athletic at this point.

Their average revenue/athletics budgets are still smaller. They're still a largely rural based conference and lower tier academic schools. A couple years with a handful of top 25 appearances doesn't change that.

 

Edited September 15, 2021 by ColoradoEagle

[El Paso Eagle]

8 minutes ago, ChristopherRyanWilkes said:

Recent history says otherwise. Based on performance, SBC has been a far superior conference to CUSA in football.  I would be very surprised if the poaching was the other way around. My guess is the top performers with decent facilities (App State, UAB, FAU, UTSA) are off to AAC and best of the rest in CUSA (SoMiss, ODU, Marshall, maybe LaTach) are off to SBC. No sources, just based on what has come out from established journalists, which to my knowledge is just the one article from the Athletic at this point.

UTSA, if they move to the AAC, will be due to location and nothing else. "Top Performers"; they were hot last year and this year to start. If it is due to their HC and he leaves what will you have? San Antonio and the market are what will sell UTSA. If they decide on being a top performer and facilities, Liberty would have to be considered 

[Arkstfan]

3 minutes ago, ColoradoEagle said:

SBC still has two bowl tie-ins to CUSA's four. Their average revenue/athletics budgets are still smaller. They're still a largely rural based conference and lower tier academic schools. A couple years with a handful of top 25 appearances doesn't change that.

 

This isn’t correct. Sun Belt is locked to two and guaranteed at least two more via the ESPN bowl pool. 

[ColoradoEagle]

2 minutes ago, Arkstfan said:

This isn’t correct. Sun Belt is locked to two and guaranteed at least two more via the ESPN bowl pool. 

Looks like I found some outdated information. Thanks.

[akriesman]

17 minutes ago, ChristopherRyanWilkes said:

Recent history says otherwise. Based on performance, SBC has been a far superior conference to CUSA in football.  I would be very surprised if the poaching was the other way around. My guess is the top performers with decent facilities (App State, UAB, FAU, UTSA) are off to AAC and best of the rest in CUSA (SoMiss, ODU, Marshall, maybe LaTach) are off to SBC. No sources, just based on what has come out from established journalists, which to my knowledge is just the one article from the Athletic at this point.

UTSA only has the untapped, large San Antonio market.    They don't have better facilities than we do.  And, they have not exceeded us in on the field performance.   If they get in the AAC, it is because of location only.

[ChristopherRyanWilkes]

7 minutes ago, ColoradoEagle said:

SBC still has two bowl tie-ins to CUSA's four. Their average revenue/athletics budgets are still smaller. They're still a largely rural based conference and lower tier academic schools. A couple years with a handful of top 25 appearances doesn't change that.

 

Actually it does. Teams want to play other quality teams so they can have a shot at being the top ranked G5 and place themselves in the expanded playoff. That's going to be the top consideration, because even one playoff appearance could catapult a program. If the playoff expansion happened today, the only conferences with a chance would be SBC, MWC and AAC. They are going to all try to keep it that way.

[Arkstfan]

40 minutes ago, ChristopherRyanWilkes said:

My understanding is an article in the Athletic this morning says regionalization is likely out because the SBC sees itself as a better conference that can poach the scraps of whatever is left of CUSA after AAC expands. If North Texas misses the cut for AAC, this is the nightmare scenario. I'm not even sure where you go from there if all that's left standing is the bottom half of CUSA. FCS? Don't see any Sun Belt schools wanting to bolt for a lesser conference at that point.

That scenario makes the most sense to me considering expanded playoffs and streaming taking over for TV markets. The emphasis will be on performance. North Texas's string of bad hires may come back to bite it big time if, after spending all we have on facilities (and coaching for that matter), we still end up in the worst conference in FBS, essentially back to where we started 10 years ago... We are already basically there and just hoping for a lifeline from the AAC.

Regionalization is far harder than people imagine. 
 

Say AAC gets involved and the west becomes the core of the oft dreamt new SWC. Sun Belt becomes the dreamt of “Eastern League” and CUSA a “mid-south league”. You don’t get ECU and Temple signing on to the new eastern league unless they get as much money and exposure as if they had cobbled up an AAC 2.0. Arkansas State isn’t going to sign on to move off ESPN family for CBSSN and NFL Network. 
 

Until you can make people no worse off than if they held what they have regional cannot work. 

[ChristopherRyanWilkes]

1 minute ago, akriesman said:

UTSA only has the untapped, large San Antonio market.    They don't have better facilities than we do.  And, they have not exceeded us in on the field performance.   If they get in the AAC, it is because of location only.

I'll concede leaving UTSA out, but I still think they have better chance because they have market, are on upswing in performance, and don't overlap like we do with SMU.

[ChristopherRyanWilkes]

6 minutes ago, Arkstfan said:

Regionalization is far harder than people imagine. 
 

Say AAC gets involved and the west becomes the core of the oft dreamt new SWC. Sun Belt becomes the dreamt of “Eastern League” and CUSA a “mid-south league”. You don’t get ECU and Temple signing on to the new eastern league unless they get as much money and exposure as if they had cobbled up an AAC 2.0. Arkansas State isn’t going to sign on to move off ESPN family for CBSSN and NFL Network. 
 

Until you can make people no worse off than if they held what they have regional cannot work. 

I don't see any major changes like that happening. I think it will be AAC adding 2-4 teams out of the lists most people have been floating around, including top CUSA and SBC teams with large enough stadiums, and SBC picks off a few CUSA teams that are also high performers and fit their profile of rural but outkick their coverage schools. CUSA will be left with a mess of "market schools" that under-perform, and likely be in that lowest tier with no shot at the playoffs alongside the MAC.

Edited September 15, 2021 by ChristopherRyanWilkes

[ColoradoEagle]

  

3 minutes ago, ChristopherRyanWilkes said:

Actually it does. Teams want to play other quality teams so they can have a shot at being the top ranked G5 and place themselves in the expanded playoff. That's going to be the top consideration, because even one playoff appearance could catapult a program. If the playoff expansion happened today, the only conferences with a chance would be SBC, MWC and AAC. They are going to all try to keep it that way.

We can agree to disagree. SBC had some good hires in Billy Napier and Jamey Chadwell, though I would be shocked to see either still coaching there next year. Drinkwitz was one and done. 

Outside of some flash in the pan rankings, the realities I noted above still exist for schools in that conference. I don't see CUSA as far and away better, but it is a better conference all around.

[Wag Tag]

Yea we are going to be left in the cold because of our football record? ( sarcasm) Just  take in consideration Denton County, wait Troy, Lafayette, Jonesboro and others have so much more potential? Now let’s talk facilities and budget enough said. Any G5 move or consolidation we are at the top except maybe AAC with SMU. The conference can be nation wide and still have regional divisions with a playoffs and championship.

[Arkstfan]

26 minutes ago, ColoradoEagle said:

  

We can agree to disagree. SBC had some good hires in Billy Napier and Jamey Chadwell, though I would be shocked to see either still coaching there next year. Drinkwitz was one and done. 

Outside of some flash in the pan rankings, the realities I noted above still exist for schools in that conference. I don't see CUSA as far and away better, but it is a better conference all around.

Hiring coaches doesn’t seem that hard to me. AState has hired 5 since December of 2010 and four left for raises. 

[Snowy]

If the cherry picking between conferences starts for backfill, I don’t see it ending well for us. (Yeah, we might be in a better position that MTSU or FIU, but it’s not a good enough position.) Likewise, if the Sun Belt and AAC crest some sort of scheduling alliance, that’s just as bad for us. The only way out of this that I see is an 3 way agreement between the conferences either to create regionalization, or agreements for end-of-season dynamic scheduling between the conferences. 

[MrAlien]

Has the MWC expressed any interest in expanding? 

As for UNT lets not forget about basketball, big part of any mid-major conference, and UNT happens to have a good program.

[TheColonyEagle]

56 minutes ago, Arkstfan said:

Hiring coaches doesn’t seem that hard to me. AState has hired 5 since December of 2010 and four left for raises. 

Your AD or President should offer consulting on how to hire coaches. They’ve done an unbelievable job. 

[ColoradoEagle]

1 hour ago, Snowy said:

If the cherry picking between conferences starts for backfill, I don’t see it ending well for us. (Yeah, we might be in a better position that MTSU or FIU, but it’s not a good enough position.)

The only place that we're lacking compared to other schools is top 25 success in football. We definitely don't have that, and it will be a major positive point for the 3 schools who do. That said, we're essentially tied for #2 in revenue, have better facilities (ODU would top us if they had an IPF) than any other candidate, in the top end of academics, and easily the best location/media market. 

I read the same articles, and realize that the fans writing them are heavily weighting recent football success. They could be right. However, I don't think AAC loses a huge state school in Texas and replaces them with UTSA or a school outside of this state. There are just too many negatives and question marks to UTSA's long term success.

It makes more sense to bring in a school that already has an established rivalry with an existing member, and brings in quantifiable numbers to back that up, combined with everything we already have going for us listed above.

Edited September 15, 2021 by ColoradoEagle

[greenminer]

3 hours ago, Arkstfan said:

3. Fans have grudges. Fans look down on some programs because of the past. Few administrators have been around long enough to remember or know those things. They are looking at each other through the lens of the past 3-5 years. 

Man.  Hard to read this and not think of our relationship with SMU.