Teams to Replace UH, Cincinnati, and UCF?

Arkstfan · September 10, 2021

15 minutes ago, keith said:

I've hit on this before, but if I'm in the business to make money, I'm going where the customers are. This whole school is already in the market stuff is just plain stupid IMHO. Just for the sake of argument, here are some schools (CUSA, AAC and Sun Belt only) and the current DMA they are in along with the current DMA size. If, and I realize it's a big if, UNT were able to bring in an additional 10% of the DFW market, what would other schools have to bring in within their respective markets to match? Geography be damned. Follow the people and the money. Once you get past the first 4 or 5 (arguably the first two), the rest make no sense. You can also add some additional factors in there like what is the probability of UNT commanding 10% of DFW or F*U garnering 17% of theirs, but here are the raw numbers and they shouldn't be ignored.

Walmart became a beast in retail by understanding that it’s possible to make trainloads of money not where the most potential customers are but the biggest concentration of likely customers.

New York City is the largest television market and it’s not close. 538 blog pointed out a few years more people watch college football in the number 45 market (Birmingham) than in the number 1 market NYC despite the fact there are ten times as many tv homes in NYC than Birmingham.

ESPN I suspect has some bodacious data sets and analysis especially with ESPN3 and ESPN+ in existence about who is likely to watch what.

Consider the UT and OU move to SEC. it’s going to cost ESPN $150 million to $190 million payment to shutdown LHN. They were willing to pay that to get Texas into SEC.

I happen to STRONGLY suspect ESPN intends to cull the CUSA herd to make money. They will “answer” any questions AAC has about potential members and that will “influence” the choices AAC makes more than anything else.

meangreen11 · September 10, 2021

I am proud of our fans and feel like we do have a very loyal fan following we just need to feed the masses with more success. I think we are poised to do that with the right coach. The location is phenomenal with all the growth. Good academics, facilities and huge alumni base to draw from. That the thing SMU cannot emulate is our sheer numbers. Are many of them apathetic sure, but we know that we have a solid base to build from.

Look at last week, you could have fried an egg on that concrete walk-way to the Hill and yet we had a very respectable showing against an FCS team that bright maybe a couple hundred at best. Could SMU do that? No.

I just wish SMU didn't hate us so much. If they could support us we would fly through this thing. They won't but like another said, they won't be long for the AAC anyway since they probably expect to get into the Big 12 when they expand again.

I would put how much we have built this program in the past 10 years against just about any program in the country. The only thing we have not done well in is hiring coaches. Part of that was self inflicted because we didn't pay enough but now we are at the top of G5 in terms of compensation. And our recruiting profile is phenomenal with our location and the level of high school talent we have around us.

outoftown · September 11, 2021

16 hours ago, meangreen11 said:

I am proud of our fans and feel like we do have a very loyal fan following we just need to feed the masses with more success. I think we are poised to do that with the right coach. The location is phenomenal with all the growth. Good academics, facilities and huge alumni base to draw from. That the thing SMU cannot emulate is our sheer numbers. Are many of them apathetic sure, but we know that we have a solid base to build from.

Look at last week, you could have fried an egg on that concrete walk-way to the Hill and yet we had a very respectable showing against an FCS team that bright maybe a couple hundred at best. Could SMU do that? No.

I just wish SMU didn't hate us so much. If they could support us we would fly through this thing. They won't but like another said, they won't be long for the AAC anyway since they probably expect to get into the Big 12 when they expand again.

I would put how much we have built this program in the past 10 years against just about any program in the country. The only thing we have not done well in is hiring coaches. Part of that was self inflicted because we didn't pay enough but now we are at the top of G5 in terms of compensation. And our recruiting profile is phenomenal with our location and the level of high school talent we have around us.

NT will have to do to SMU what UCF just did to USF.

I believe that this will happen, but it will take 25 years of patience and institutional commitment to fullfill it (it did for UCF).

To be fair USF was even worse to UCF than SMU to NT.

On a different note, I don't know what the AAC is looking for, and if it is even that attractive (I guess the problem is more if others leave C-USA may become even worse). What I note is that after UCF, Houston and Cincy leave, of those left in the AAC only USF is bigger in terms of enrolment, and only temple is similarly sized, and everyone else is clearly smaller than NT. The AAC needs to be careful not to become a league of Duke and Wake Forrests.

Edited September 11, 2021 by outoftown

wardly · September 11, 2021

23 hours ago, El Paso Eagle said:

Would think UTA would be a better fit for the new WAC

You are probably right, and UALR would fit in as well. However the MVC is a much better conference. Also if BIG 12 goes to 16 programs in 2024 after Texas and OU leave it appears Memphis, Boise, and USF are front runners. Any more defections and the AAC is DOA.

keith · September 13, 2021

On 9/10/2021 at 4:44 PM, Arkstfan said:

Walmart became a beast in retail by understanding that it’s possible to make trainloads of money not where the most potential customers are but the biggest concentration of likely customers.

New York City is the largest television market and it’s not close. 538 blog pointed out a few years more people watch college football in the number 45 market (Birmingham) than in the number 1 market NYC despite the fact there are ten times as many tv homes in NYC than Birmingham.

ESPN I suspect has some bodacious data sets and analysis especially with ESPN3 and ESPN+ in existence about who is likely to watch what.

Consider the UT and OU move to SEC. it’s going to cost ESPN $150 million to $190 million payment to shutdown LHN. They were willing to pay that to get Texas into SEC.

I happen to STRONGLY suspect ESPN intends to cull the CUSA herd to make money. They will “answer” any questions AAC has about potential members and that will “influence” the choices AAC makes more than anything else.

Fortunately, I don't think we are going after TV sets/computers in NYC. As you are, I'm pretty sure ESPN knows a lot about the viewing habits in the target markets we might appeal to. It would be great to know the numbers when UNT is on the road and streaming on one of the services or through a network/cable service. We've also demonstrated that we tend to be fair weather fans. Rain, heat, cold, etc. generally keep our fans away from home games especially if it's available for viewing from the comfort of the TV room couch. Compared to the other schools under consideration for the "shoulder tap," I have no idea how UNT games (away or home) stack up against others in the #5 (soon to be #4) DMA market in the US. Across the spectrum of potential schools/markets in play, I suspect all of us are fairly low on the totem pole when compared to the schools/conferences ESPN really cares about. At this level, ESPN may be simply reduced to casting a wide net and in this case, they may just throw it where most of the fish are.