Will Litrell win enough games in 2021 to keep his job?

[Tom McKrackin]

I know, elephant in the room.  Needed to be asked tho.

[Texas Stranger]

Realistically, that line is probably at 3 or fewer so yes, it gets crossed.

[untjim1995]

It’s really hard to answer. What number of losses make the university decide to pay out probably $2.6 million or more to make SL leave? Is it 7 or 8? More? It’s just hard to know what the powers in charge want to do. Old UNT? This isn’t even a question. He could go 0-12 and still kept his job for another year, just because we would never buy out a contract for more than $250k. The UNT since Portland State? Seems like SL could go with a losing record if the BMDs want him gone. But now we have had this pandemic, funding and revenues have been severely cut back, and we sit at this crossroads. I really don’t know what it would take to make that change. Id love it if we had a winning season to make it a moot point and even start considering SL as being back and getting an extension. That’s what would be best. But this schedule isn’t gonna make that much of a possibility, ESPECIALLY with new coordinators and a new QB having to face a gauntlet after week one. It really is anyone’s guess at this point.

[Mean Green 93-98]

27 minutes ago, untjim1995 said:

It’s really hard to answer. What number of losses make the university decide to pay out probably $2.6 million or more to make SL leave? Is it 7 or 8? More? It’s just hard to know what the powers in charge want to do. Old UNT? This isn’t even a question. He could go 0-12 and still kept his job for another year, just because we would never buy out a contract for more than $250k. The UNT since Portland State? Seems like SL could go with a losing record if the BMDs want him gone. But now we have had this pandemic, funding and revenues have been severely cut back, and we sit at this crossroads. I really don’t know what it would take to make that change. Id love it if we had a winning season to make it a moot point and even start considering SL as being back and getting an extension. That’s what would be best. But this schedule isn’t gonna make that much of a possibility, ESPECIALLY with new coordinators and a new QB having to face a gauntlet after week one. It really is anyone’s guess at this point.

A.  It's not the university that would buy out the contract.  That would be the high-dollar donors.

B.  The $250k statement is patently false.  How much did we (or, I should say, the high-dollar donors) pay to buy out Dan McCarney's contract?

Edited August 6, 2021 by Mean Green 93-98

[NorthTexasWeLove]

Given the changing landscape of college football and the amount of uncertainty and apathy it will bring to programs like ours, I'm not sure where WB would find 2.6 million dollars lying around to make SL go away. 

Given that, he might keep his job at 3-9, maybe even 2-10. 

[untjim1995]

20 minutes ago, Mean Green 93-98 said:

A.  It's not the university that would buy out the contract.  That would be the high-dollar donors.

B.  The $250k statement is patently false.  How much did we (or, I should say, the high-dollar donors) pay to buy out Dan McCarney's contract?

Re-read what I posted--before DMac, we wouldn't buy out a big contract, in part because we didn't pay out much to begin with. Dickey, Dodge, Benford, and Vic Trilli lasted years longer than they should have because of that ridiculous view of athletics. But that Portland State debacle basically embarrassed some BMDs and university leaders in a big way, which was why we bought out DMac for $2.1 million on the spot, as well as eventually buying out RV's lazy ass, which was probably why we had to keep Bumford for another year, as if that was ever gonna work out in any way other than saving us money.

If we do buy out SL's contract after this season, his base is $1.3 million, with two years left after 2021. Thats $2.6 million, plus any other possible sources and buyouts for other coaches. Look, if we go 5-7, I'm all for telling SL to hit the door, but I recognize the fact that we are in CUSA, we have no meaningful TV revenue, and are coming off of a pandemic that may or may not be starting back up again. I'd love for us to show that commitment that winning matters that much here--it just never has before. We win 9 games around here, we go crazy, then extend said coach for several years, only to watch his coaches get poached away and our talent base fall back down to being a 4 win program, but with a coach with a lot of years left to buyout. Its what we do...

I lean toward this probability. We win 4 games this year, SL still comes back, that we can't afford to buy out that much right now, SL being told he is out the moment we hit 6 losses in 2022, all while SL knows that a power job OC/QB Coach opening is there for him the moment he's done here.

[untjim1995]

4 minutes ago, NorthTexasWeLove said:

Given the changing landscape of college football and the amount of uncertainty and apathy it will bring to programs like ours, I'm not sure where WB would find 2.6 million dollars lying around to make SL go away. 

Given that, he might keep his job at 3-9, maybe even 2-10. 

Possible, but I think 9-10 losses might be the point where he can't get another year...

[MeanGreenTexan]

He's only won 4 games in back-to-back seasons.    1 with a completely lost OC (bad hire he's since rectified by hiring himself to call plays), 1 with a completely lost DC (bad hire he's since rectified by hiring Phil Bennett).
We're not only winning 4 games again this year, so I think he's OK.

If the wheels fall off and he loses the team, then yeah, it would be up to the big boosters if they want to cough up the buyout funds.

[NorthTexasSportsNetwork]

C. Choose not to answer

[Charlie NT 73]

Personally, I do believe coach and his staff are going to direct this very young team to many wins this season. Yes coach will be the HFC next season too. 

I believe the failure of the defense last year is creating all the fear of a bad team for the 2021 season. Several outside factors caused the break down, like the COVID pandemic and bad defensive coaching. The offense put up good numbers to win games while the defense failed to support the offense. We all could see that! 
HFC Littrell could clearly see the defensive problems.

Coach then hired Phil Bennett as the DC for the team. Coach Bennett brought in defensive coaches that he trusts to do the job. Coach Bennett will make a huge difference with the defense team and put the Mean back into the Mean Green! 

The staff has recruited very well the last two seasons. The 2021 class is now rated the number one class in CUSA. As the classes mature, the team will get better and better.  I am excited about the future of  Mean Green football!.

 

 

[greenminer]

1 hour ago, untjim1995 said:

But that Portland State debacle basically embarrassed some BMDs and university leaders in a big way, which was why we bought out DMac for $2.1 million on the spot, as well as eventually buying out RV's lazy ass, which was probably why we had to keep Bumford for another year, as if that was ever gonna work out in any way other than saving us money.

I don't believe that is why we hung onto Bumford an extra year.  But, I haven't read anything other than what Wren was quoted when he got here.  Maybe you know something I don't.
 

Quote

I'd love for us to show that commitment that winning matters that much here--it just never has before. We win 9 games around here, we go crazy, then extend said coach for several years, only to watch his coaches get poached away and our talent base fall back down to being a 4 win program, but with a coach with a lot of years left to buyout. Its what we do...

Just my view again, but I've seen enough the last 5 years to believe we have the right people in place.  We might still be grasping for resources when we need them, but it seems to me if we need the funds AND there is enough will to do it, it will get done.

Edited August 6, 2021 by greenminer

[MeanGreen2019]

I weirdly feel good about this year. Seth has his best coaching staff since he’s been here. Mike Bloesch at OL, Phil Bennett at DC( heard nothing but good things so far) and himself, a proven Power 5 OC.   He’s never had a decent OL coach and a decent DC since his tenure began. Hopefully this is the year.
 

Last year after facing HBU, I knew the defense was garbage. I’m thinking we take a step forward this year and go 7-6.  Who the hell knows though, I might just have my mean green glasses on.

[adman]

47 minutes ago, MeanGreen2019 said:

I weirdly feel good about this year. Seth has his best coaching staff since he’s been here. Mike Bloesch at OL, Phil Bennett at DC( heard nothing but good things so far) and himself, a proven Power 5 OC.   He’s never had a decent OL coach and a decent DC since his tenure began. Hopefully this is the year.
 

Last year after facing HBU, I knew the defense was garbage. I’m thinking we take a step forward this year and go 7-6.  Who the hell knows though, I might just have my mean green glasses on.

I like the optimism but something that alarms me, aside from not having a QB, is: Of our 113 man roster, 68 of them are Sophomores or younger.

Rare is it that a Freshman, RS Freshman or Sophomore contributes in a meaningful way. (Mason, Jamario, etc being exceptions.) That leaves us with 45 guys who have had meaningful time in the program. (9 of those 45 chose to take the extra year and come back.)

My hope is someone really rises to the top in fall camp for the QB spot. If whoever that is can be at least as good as D. Thompson circa 2013 we may go .500 this season. If not...

Also, what the hell happened that this years senior class is so small?

[UNTLifer]

11 minutes ago, adman said:

I like the optimism but something that alarms me, aside from not having a QB, is: Of our 113 man roster, 68 of them are Sophomores or younger.

Rare is it that a Freshman, RS Freshman or Sophomore contributes in a meaningful way. (Mason, Jamario, etc being exceptions.) That leaves us with 45 guys who have had meaningful time in the program. (9 of those 45 chose to take the extra year and come back.)

My hope is someone really rises to the top in fall camp for the QB spot. If whoever that is can be at least as good as D. Thompson circa 2013 we may go .500 this season. If not...

Also, what the hell happened that this years senior class is so small?

Not having a QB?  Aune or Ruder will lead this offense just fine.

Don't forget that basically all the players received an extra year.  Considering you can carry 85 players on scholarship, to have a little over 50% is a pretty good ratio.  I am not terribly worried considering the game experience our younger players have received.

[Eagle71]

2 hours ago, MeanGreen2019 said:

I weirdly feel good about this year. Seth has his best coaching staff since he’s been here. Mike Bloesch at OL, Phil Bennett at DC( heard nothing but good things so far) and himself, a proven Power 5 OC.   He’s never had a decent OL coach and a decent DC since his tenure began. Hopefully this is the year.
 

Last year after facing HBU, I knew the defense was garbage. I’m thinking we take a step forward this year and go 7-6.  Who the hell knows though, I might just have my mean green glasses on.

I'm with you.  Let's drink to 7-6!!

[greenminer]

3 hours ago, adman said:

Rare is it that a Freshman, RS Freshman or Sophomore contributes in a meaningful way. (Mason, Jamario, etc being exceptions.) That leaves us with 45 guys who have had meaningful time in the program. (9 of those 45 chose to take the extra year and come back.)

Might be worth breaking down the youth per position.  This is valid concern, but typically is less of a concern at the skill positions.  Speed Speed speed can get you snaps at WR/RB/DB.  College snaps/experience gets you snaps at QB/Line

[Mean Green 93-98]

6 hours ago, untjim1995 said:

Re-read what I posted--before DMac, we wouldn't buy out a big contract

Sorry, you're right--I skimmed, and missed that part.

But you seem to be disagreeing with that post yourself in the rest of your follow-up post.

[NT93]

Seems like there have been a few threads like this and I’m still of the opinion that wins and losses will be secondary to progress.  If this year is a train wreck, SL has to go, but I can see a scenario where the record may not be what we would like, but we’re seeing good things from this young roster.  In that case, I think he stays. 

[meangreen11]

4 hours ago, adman said:

Also, what the hell happened that this years senior class is so small?

A very valid question indeed.

[UNTLifer]

19 minutes ago, meangreen11 said:

A very valid question indeed.

What is the usual size of a senior class?

[97and03]

Maybe the answer depends on who is AD at the end of the season. 👀

[NorthTexasSportsNetwork]

17 hours ago, MeanGreen2019 said:

I weirdly feel good about this year. Seth has his best coaching staff since he’s been here. Mike Bloesch at OL, Phil Bennett at DC( heard nothing but good things so far) and himself, a proven Power 5 OC.   He’s never had a decent OL coach and a decent DC since his tenure began. Hopefully this is the year.
 

Last year after facing HBU, I knew the defense was garbage. I’m thinking we take a step forward this year and go 7-6.  Who the hell knows though, I might just have my mean green glasses on.

You’re not alone at the end, I think this year will be surprising to most. Seth seems to be more energetic and intense like he was in 2016-17 because he knows his ass is burning on the hot seat if he doesn’t succeed this year 

[meangreen11]

11 hours ago, UNTLifer said:

What is the usual size of a senior class?

Maybe 15-20?

[Wag Tag]

He wins at least 4 games and doesn’t get blown out he is back for 1 more year. With PB 2 yr contract and the youth of the team, next year will be more demanding of wins. 

[RBP79]

I can't imagine not winning at minimum 4 to 5 games. We're not in a P5 conference or AAC. As a matter of fact in football at least we're in the worst Division that's in the worst Conference in FBS.