AAC wants to try to poach at least some remaining Big 12 teams, cites TV deal: “We’ve already got ESPN at the table.”

[TheColonyEagle]

1 hour ago, meangreen11 said:

The more I look at this I think the Pac10 and Big10 have no incentive to add any of the leftover Big 12 schools.

If you're coming to that conclusion, then you have to figure that the Pac10 and Big10 aren't going to add any schools and stay with what they have which means the 16 team super conferences aren't going to happen. If you think they ARE going to happen....then who would the Pac10 and Big10 add if not the Big12 leftovers?

[meanrob]

17 minutes ago, TheColonyEagle said:

If you're coming to that conclusion, then you have to figure that the Pac10 and Big10 aren't going to add any schools and stay with what they have which means the 16 team super conferences aren't going to happen. If you think they ARE going to happen....then who would the Pac10 and Big10 add if not the Big12 leftovers?

There are scenarios where the Big Ten poaches the ACC. 

[TheColonyEagle]

1 minute ago, meanrob said:

There are scenarios where the Big Ten poaches the ACC. 

Perhaps....and I would definitely buy the Big10 not being interested in the big12 schools more than the Pac.....but assuming the Big10 does poach the ACC.....wouldn't that put more pressure on the Pac to add? Then they'll have to fight the ACC I guess...

[meanrob]

3 minutes ago, TheColonyEagle said:

Perhaps....and I would definitely buy the Big10 not being interested in the big12 schools more than the Pac.....but assuming the Big10 does poach the ACC.....wouldn't that put more pressure on the Pac to add? Then they'll have to fight the ACC I guess...

If I’m the PAC 12 I only go to 16 if there is some sort of super conference agreement in place. Going to sixteen just to have the same number as other conferences while everything else is the status quo makes no sense but most of this makes zero sense to me. Especially with the playoff expanding. 
 

 

 

[UNTLifer]

35 minutes ago, meanrob said:

There are scenarios where the Big Ten poaches the ACC. 

... and where the SEC poaches the ACC.

[meanrob]

26 minutes ago, UNTLifer said:

... and where the SEC poaches the ACC.

If the SEC continues to expand then this isn’t a re-shuffling of conferences but an attempt to take over college football. There’s no reason to go over sixteen unless you want everything. 

[tmjerm]

18 minutes ago, meanrob said:

If the SEC continues to expand then this isn’t a re-shuffling of conferences but an attempt to take over college football. There’s no reason to go over sixteen unless you want everything. 

That's exactly where this is headed.

[Rudy]

On 7/25/2021 at 7:46 PM, El Paso Eagle said:

Judy still thinks there are 10 teams in the Big 10

"What's the Big 10?" ~ Judy. 

[meanrob]

17 minutes ago, tmjerm said:

That's exactly where this is headed.

Nobody knows where this is headed. Everything doesn’t exponentially increase just because you add more teams. There’s a limit on how much money is actually out there. All it takes is a few schools to say no and everything slows down. The Big 12 was always vulnerable, doesn’t mean everything changes. 
 

There is an article on ESPN that talks about how NASCAR screwed itself by thinking more is always better and how it relates to the current situation. 

[El Paso Eagle]

2 hours ago, Rudy said:

"What's the Big 10?" ~ Judy. 

I heard it took her several days to figure it out

[Monkeypox]

3 hours ago, meanrob said:

Nobody knows where this is headed. Everything doesn’t exponentially increase just because you add more teams. There’s a limit on how much money is actually out there. All it takes is a few schools to say no and everything slows down. The Big 12 was always vulnerable, doesn’t mean everything changes. 

I think we all know where it's headed, just not the route it's going to take, as it's not a straight shot. The "P5/whatever" might end up with more in the short-term, because they need to consolidate the big money programs and it's easier for those biggest players (Big12, Pac12) to just dump their conferences and move into another. But also, keep in mind, that there are currently 65 P5 teams. A 4x16 setup is 64 "P4" teams. I think eventually we end up with 2x16/18/20 depending on what happens for these programs economically over the re-shuffling. But the reason this is happening is that 65 is already too much. 

Since it's a message board, let's just throw out some baseless conjecture:

The big teams from the Pac12 decide to jump ship, too, and move into the Big10. Then the Pac12 in the short-term has to take on some numbers so they pull from the MWC and/or remainders of the Big12. Big12 also will be trying to solidify their position by pulling from the MWC and AAC, hopefully (for them), before they get poached by the Pac. Maybe it trickles down, or maybe some conferences fold up or bottom tiers re-adjust regionally. But on the grand scale, what happens below the Big12 and Pac12 doesn't matter. Notre Dame goes to whomever they wish (ACC or Big10).

So now the Big12 and Pac12 are a shell, because they've lost the teams that make the conferences really go. They get to keep their TV contracts for the remainder, but all that TV money is gonna drop without the big boys in the next go round. And, truthfully, we're down to a P3 (Big10, SEC, ACC). They are soaking up all that delicious media money, but they've also got their eyes on the NEXT move.

The next move is an entirely new thing. 1) I don't know how you kick teams OUT of a conference so much as move and re-brand, leaving them behind. 2) This new thing doesn't have any reason to deal with the NCAA. The big money boys from the ACC and SEC join forces for their conference, and dump the bottom half.  Sorry kids, it was fun while it lasted. Meanwhile, the Big10 does the same thing, possibly taking some of the further West schools from the SEC and/or a few of the Pac12 who couldn't make the move initially but have/generate enough dough to play in the same sandbox.  The bottom half of the SEC, Big10, ACC now gets in the middling leftover stew of the Pac12, Big12, MWC, and AAC.

So:

Phase 1: Collect Underpants (Big Money Schools)

Phase 2: ? (dump the dead weight)

Phase 3: Profit

Right now, the duration and value of the TV contracts is what keeps this from being easy. I honestly wish it would just hurry up and blow up so we could realign into something more concentrated on regional rivalries and butts-in-seats. 

 

[El Paso Eagle]

28 minutes ago, Monkeypox said:

I think we all know where it's headed, just not the route it's going to take, as it's not a straight shot. The "P5/whatever" might end up with more in the short-term, because they need to consolidate the big money programs and it's easier for those biggest players (Big12, Pac12) to just dump their conferences and move into another. But also, keep in mind, that there are currently 65 P5 teams. A 4x16 setup is 64 "P4" teams. I think eventually we end up with 2x16/18/20 depending on what happens for these programs economically over the re-shuffling. But the reason this is happening is that 65 is already too much. 

Since it's a message board, let's just throw out some baseless conjecture:

The big teams from the Pac12 decide to jump ship, too, and move into the Big10. Then the Pac12 in the short-term has to take on some numbers so they pull from the MWC and/or remainders of the Big12. Big12 also will be trying to solidify their position by pulling from the MWC and AAC, hopefully (for them), before they get poached by the Pac. Maybe it trickles down, or maybe some conferences fold up or bottom tiers re-adjust regionally. But on the grand scale, what happens below the Big12 and Pac12 doesn't matter. Notre Dame goes to whomever they wish (ACC or Big10).

So now the Big12 and Pac12 are a shell, because they've lost the teams that make the conferences really go. They get to keep their TV contracts for the remainder, but all that TV money is gonna drop without the big boys in the next go round. And, truthfully, we're down to a P3 (Big10, SEC, ACC). They are soaking up all that delicious media money, but they've also got their eyes on the NEXT move.

The next move is an entirely new thing. 1) I don't know how you kick teams OUT of a conference so much as move and re-brand, leaving them behind. 2) This new thing doesn't have any reason to deal with the NCAA. The big money boys from the ACC and SEC join forces for their conference, and dump the bottom half.  Sorry kids, it was fun while it lasted. Meanwhile, the Big10 does the same thing, possibly taking some of the further West schools from the SEC and/or a few of the Pac12 who couldn't make the move initially but have/generate enough dough to play in the same sandbox.  The bottom half of the SEC, Big10, ACC now gets in the middling leftover stew of the Pac12, Big12, MWC, and AAC.

So:

Phase 1: Collect Underpants (Big Money Schools)

Phase 2: ? (dump the dead weight)

Phase 3: Profit

Right now, the duration and value of the TV contracts is what keeps this from being easy. I honestly wish it would just hurry up and blow up so we could realign into something more concentrated on regional rivalries and butts-in-seats. 

 

Will the greedy want to share the money with 64 teams? I still think were headed to a 32 team Super League

[Monkeypox]

10 minutes ago, El Paso Eagle said:

Will the greedy want to share the money with 64 teams? I still think were headed to a 32 team Super League

At first, they might have to share due to tv contracts. Even the ACC and SEC have dead weight teams that won't fit in the Super League, and I haven't heard about them being dumped yet.

But, yes, when I do the math and look at locations, budgets, revenue, and markets, I've got between 32-40 teams. Those are the ones that will be there in the end. 

Problem is there's realistically 3 tiers. Even with all the improvements, we're sitting WAY below the bottom half of the P5 and significantly below the upper most of the AAC and MWC. And you just have to consider that, even taking out the Super League teams, we are 3rd place in our market.

But it kinda depends on how sustainable some of these budgets become in far-flung conferences without those 32-40 teams giving them the paydays and dwindling tv money.

[El Paso Eagle]

1 minute ago, Monkeypox said:

At first, they might have to share due to tv contracts. Even the ACC and SEC have dead weight teams that won't fit in the Super League, and I haven't heard about them being dumped yet.

But, yes, when I do the math and look at locations, budgets, revenue, and markets, I've got between 32-40 teams. Those are the ones that will be there in the end. 

Problem is there's realistically 3 tiers. Even with all the improvements, we're sitting WAY below the bottom half of the P5 and significantly below the upper most of the AAC and MWC. And you just have to consider that, even taking out the Super League teams, we are 3rd place in our market.

But it kinda depends on how sustainable some of these budgets become in far-flung conferences without those 32-40 teams giving them the paydays and dwindling tv money.

I believe our athletic department has been doing a very good job learning to live within their means. Will be interested in seeing what happens to some of these schools who have been overextending for years if some of that revenue gets cut off. This last year when the shutdowns hit quite a few schools had to start taking loans immediately to cover fixed expenses. Not saying we'll be in great shape, but if you look at the revenue we get now from TV (thanks Judy) we have not been counting on that to build.

[untjim1995]

10 hours ago, meangreen11 said:

Agree 100%. The more I look at this I think the Pac10 and Big10 have no incentive to add any of the leftover Big 12 schools.  Everyone would love to add Notre Dame but I think they would prefer to remain independent.  And I don’t see SEC adding anymore teams because it will push too close to monopolistic practices.  They will be able to add UT and OU and will stick With that for the time being.  
 

Each of the leftover Big 12 teams will be incentivized to keep the Big 12 in place for awhile because UT and OU owe them about 20 million smackeroos each as long as the Big 12 remains intact.  The Big 12 Will raid AAC but they will not share any of the leftover big 12 money with any of the new additions.

Here’s the most perverse thing.  The Big 12 should make moves to create a revised SWC by adding Houston and SMU etc but they won’t because Baylor, Tech and TCU are concerned that doing so will elevate those programs into bigger and better programs than they are because of where they are located (Dallas and Houston).

 

Why do I fear some old SWC setup with the Big XII leftovers down here in Texas and Oklahoma and Kansas getting together, like Tech, OSU, KSU, Wichita State, SMU, TCU, Tulsa, Tulane, UH, Rice? This would be sooooo perfectly North Texas to be left out…if this hypothetical also added UTSA and ULL or La Tech, I think Id blow up something…

[PlummMeanGreen]

😇(Just one more time)🏈

🗣 DON’T PUNISH YOURSELVES ANYMORE, O YE BIG 12 MEMBERS WHO WILL HAVE  REMAINED...

Why would any Big 12 school whose left behind because of UT & OU greed want to hook up with SMU & UH which would only give the remaining  B12’s even stiffer recruiting competition in the 2 hottest recruiting hot beds in Texas—Dallas & Houston?  

Would it not be enough to suffer the loss of UT & OU & then replace them with 2 football programs who could very well out- recruit them; least of all cut into remaining B12 member’s  dramatically lower TV revenue?😳 Really now, wouldn’t that sorta be jumping from the frying pan into the fire? 

SMU along with this new NCAA-sanctioned (basically) “pay to play on the Hilltop” program will have every blue chip football talent in south Dallas County (& beyond) thinking SMU’s lilly white campus is the Rap & Hip Hop Capital of Texas & the Southwest. 
•••SMU & their slicker than snot lawyer brigade are smooth operators. Their father’s generation created the national recruiting scandal that would require an NCAA-sanctioned Death Penalty on the Hilltop. Some called it PonyGate. (Hark! SMU finally made the national news).  That group of Mustang Maniac’s & now their son’s generation would sell their souls to be back with the Big Boys even if the SMU audience at G. Ford is ridiculously small for a program with such big aspirations.

TCU & Baylor removed themselves from all the SMU sludge. Can’t see those 2 schools wanting to sing “Kum Bah Yah” with Peruna ever again, either.  Yet to get those or any P5 intercollegiate associations back again SMU’ers will sell more lies to innocent high school kids & naive’, gullible portal transfer dwellers of which SMU history indicates (once again)—-they’ll do anything for a P5 win inside a half empty Gerald J. Ford Stadium—& half  empty even when they were ranked of late.  

➡️ The Big 12 should stay in-tact & not add anyone while at the same time not creating another mini-Southwest Conference of too many Texas schools in one league. That song has been sung before.  ••• If memory serves, that was a prime reason the original SWC broke up in the first place. 

🦅

Edited July 30, 2021 by PlummMeanGreen

[PlummMeanGreen]

Addendum:  Do you think a longtime MG fan whose Great-Great Grandpa was a Texas Ranger appointed by Sam Houston in the 1830’s ; one who fought Comanche & Kiowas—would stay silent long? •••Strangely, neither one of us were ever asked by GQ magazine to do a cover. 🙄

GMG! 

Edited July 30, 2021 by PlummMeanGreen