Conference USA Preseason Position Previews: Offensive Line

[Jonnyeagle]

UNT - Four of the Mean Green’s starters return from last season, however apart from Jacob Brammer and Manase Mose, it’s still a bit unclear if UNT has all the answers they need upfront from a talent perspective. Even Mose struggled in pass protection last year, as his Pro Football Focus blocking grades have regressed each season.

read more:  https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2021/6/29/22553517/conference-usa-preseason-position-previews-offensive-line-cusa-alex-mollette-bobby-deharo

[GrandGreen]

Very poor analytical  job there, no mention that NT returns 4 of 5 ol from the statistically best offence in the conference last year.   

They actually rate NT's ol as the ninth best in the conference.  I guess they believe that Gray was the anchor of last year's offensive line and that NT just won't be able to replace him, total foolishness. 

[Udomann]

15 minutes ago, GrandGreen said:

Very poor analytical  job there, no mention that NT returns 4 of 5 ol from the statistically best offence in the conference last year.   

They actually rate NT's ol as the ninth best in the conference.  I guess they believe that Gray was the anchor of last year's offensive line and that NT just won't be able to replace him, total foolishness. 

2 counterpoints to the statistically best argument:

A). Our first half production was bottom of the barrel, lot of that on the line forcing QB runs and poor throwing yardage (and the constant changing of QBs throughout). We put up a lot of garbage time points once our Oline starters were going against 2nd stringers, etc...

B). With our Defense just letting them basically throw the ball into the endzone each series, our offense was out there a lot more forcing some additional numbers on them that may look better than they are

 

That said, I'm not exactly enamored with our line yet, but there's potential, and still miles ahead of previous lines (*cough* poor mason fine *cough*). They will hopefully be more rested (unless our defense becomes a 3 and out machine, but I don't see the downside there). More experienced. And I hope they are feeding those boys better. 

[GrandGreen]

53 minutes ago, Udomann said:

2 counterpoints to the statistically best argument:

A). Our first half production was bottom of the barrel, lot of that on the line forcing QB runs and poor throwing yardage (and the constant changing of QBs throughout). We put up a lot of garbage time points once our Oline starters were going against 2nd stringers, etc...

B). With our Defense just letting them basically throw the ball into the endzone each series, our offense was out there a lot more forcing some additional numbers on them that may look better than they are

 

That said, I'm not exactly enamored with our line yet, but there's potential, and still miles ahead of previous lines (*cough* poor mason fine *cough*). They will hopefully be more rested (unless our defense becomes a 3 and out machine, but I don't see the downside there). More experienced. And I hope they are feeding those boys better. 

Unless you are going to analyse every team and figure out their statistics without "garbage time" being included, your point is not that strong.  

Stats are always up for debate, but they tend to even out over time. 

By the way, I don't remember too many teams that had second and less team players playing anymore than a quarter.  A quick look and both App St and SMU had their starters playing well into the fourth quarter.  

[UNTLifer]

2 hours ago, GrandGreen said:

Very poor analytical  job there, no mention that NT returns 4 of 5 ol from the statistically best offence in the conference last year.   

They actually rate NT's ol as the ninth best in the conference.  I guess they believe that Gray was the anchor of last year's offensive line and that NT just won't be able to replace him, total foolishness. 

They list UTEP as in "great shape".

[El Paso Eagle]

1 minute ago, UNTLifer said:

They list UTEP as in "great shape".

For as much as they have struggled UTEP always seems to have good line play

 

[UNT Mean Green]

Mose and Brammer are among the best, and most experienced OL in the league. Need Cole Brown and Turpin to continue to improve and find our 5th guy. This should be our best OL group under Littrell with the leadership and development of Bloesch. 

[ntmeangreen11]

I think we are way too bullish on our offensive line outlook for this year. We have really yet to prove we can move the ball on anyone other than cellar dwellers. I think there is more talent on the OL than at any time in the SL era but our best offensive games were against UTEP, MTSU, and HBU. We scored 35 against SMU(two late TD's) 31 against LT & USM but those were ten point losses and 28 against App State.

I don't think we will be bad up front but to call this a top 5 CUSA unit or think of it as a strength heading in to 2021 is over the top in my opinion.

[Jonnyeagle]

1 hour ago, ntmeangreen11 said:

I think we are way too bullish on our offensive line outlook for this year. We have really yet to prove we can move the ball on anyone other than cellar dwellers. I think there is more talent on the OL than at any time in the SL era but our best offensive games were against UTEP, MTSU, and HBU. We scored 35 against SMU(two late TD's) 31 against LT & USM but those were ten point losses and 28 against App State.

I don't think we will be bad up front but to call this a top 5 CUSA unit or think of it as a strength heading in to 2021 is over the top in my opinion.

I agree and losing the OSU transfer really hurt along with Anaterrius Grey.

[greenminer]

2 hours ago, ntmeangreen11 said:

I think we are way too bullish on our offensive line outlook for this year. We have really yet to prove we can move the ball on anyone other than cellar dwellers. I think there is more talent on the OL than at any time in the SL era but our best offensive games were against UTEP, MTSU, and HBU. We scored 35 against SMU(two late TD's) 31 against LT & USM but those were ten point losses and 28 against App State.

I don't think we will be bad up front but to call this a top 5 CUSA unit or think of it as a strength heading in to 2021 is over the top in my opinion.

One more thing to add.  OL grading isn't simply how many points we scored against hard or soft teams.  Not going to look it up, but it might be worth looking how well we protected/pushed.    See how few times our QB got touched, or look at our ypc from the backs.

[ntmeangreen11]

13 minutes ago, greenminer said:

One more thing to add.  OL grading isn't simply how many points we scored against hard or soft teams.  Not going to look it up, but it might be worth looking how well we protected/pushed.    See how few times our QB got touched, or look at our ypc from the backs.

True, if anyone has a PFF College subscription I doubt the metrics have us as a top CUSA unit. I think last season just looked a lot better because we were so used to seeing our QB get ragdolled that semi competent pass blocking made it look like a huge improvement occurred. 

[97and03]

Greatly improved from 2019? Yes. 
Top 5 in the conference: probably not.

But trending in the right direction. Unfortunately losing a starter to transfer and another potential/projected starter doesn’t help.

I think they are a little low on us but the concerns are valid. On the talent question, consider this: the second that Farrell was eligible he replaced an yearlong starter. That means Bloesh also thought there was some talent lacking. And now that guy (Farrell) is gone, as well as the guy he pushed from tackle to guard (Grey). So who plays that tackle position this year?

[UNTLifer]

Gray played guard all year long.  I think the person that Farrell replaced was Brown, who started all year including the bowl game.  Either way, I didn't notice a big change with Farrell in as opposed to Brown or Gray.

I did notice looking back through last year that Cassidy started the first two games at RG but was then replaced by Carroll for the remainder of the year.

[ntmeangreen11]

North Texas

2.31

107

2.30

100

2.33

106

43.2%

109

60.9%

109

22.4%

109

5.4%

48

5.0%

70

6.0%

37

 

North Texas

2.94

24

2.99

9

2.98

54

51.5%

33

67.9%

72

14.1%

16

5.3%

45

4.3%

47

5.6%

33

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa/sp/overallol/2019

Above is our offensive lines stats as a unit from 2019, below is their stats from 2020. So I could not have been more wrong, they really did make a big jump. The Mean Green pessimist in me that saw us not win more than 3 games 9 out of my first ten years as a fan simply wanted to find a reason for us not to be successful in 2021. We went from 109th to 72nd in one year in power success rate, and went from 109th to 16th in stuff rate in one season, I deserve some crow for my post above. Here is an explanation of the OL stats and they are in order above, along with our rank in each category. 

 

• Line Yards per Carry: For 2018, we are experimenting with a new definition for college line yardage based on film study and generalization. Instead of the ALY figure FO used for the NFL, this one is tighter: the line gets credit for rushing yardage between 0-3 yards (instead of 0-4) and 50% credit for yards 4-8 (instead of 5-10). Anything over 8 yards is quantified as a highlight opportunity, and credit goes to the runner. As with the pro definition, lost yardage still counts for 125%. (Garbage time is filtered out for all line yardage averages.)
• Standard Downs Line Yards per Carry: The raw, unadjusted per-carry line yardage for a team on standard downs (first down, second-and-7 or fewer, third-and-4 or fewer, fourth-and-4 or fewer).
• Passing Downs Line Yards per Carry: The same unadjusted averages for rushing on passing downs.
• Opportunity Rate: The percentage of carries (when four yards are available) that gain at least four yards, i.e. the percentage of carries in which the line does its job, so to speak.
• Power Success Rate: This is the same as on the NFL side -- percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown.
• Stuff Rate: Same as STUFFED on the NFL side -- percentage of carries by running backs that are stopped at or before the line of scrimmage.

Pass-blocking stats

• Sack Rate: Unadjusted sack rate for all non-garbage time pass attempts.
• Standard Downs Sack Rate: Unadjusted sack rate for standard downs pass attempts.
• Passing Downs Sack Rate: Unadjusted sack rate for passing downs pass attempts.