WSJ: We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April (Op-Ed)

[LongJim]

Interesting info regarding possible herd immunity soon.  Hopefully it'll be accurate.

Herd Immunity By April? (Also--the NYT is a joke)

Edited February 19, 2021 by LongJim

[Cr1028]

I so hope this is true. The latest numbers certainly show a very steep decline but I worry that it may be due to reduced testing over the last couple of weeks with the extreme winter weather we just had.

[greenminer]

3 minutes ago, Cr1028 said:

I so hope this is true. The latest numbers certainly show a very steep decline but I worry that it may be due to reduced testing over the last couple of weeks with the extreme winter weather we just had.

There was a decline last year right before the Spring/Summer surge.

I'm cautiously optimistic this will be different.

[CMJ]

The past few days the averages of both infections and deaths have started to nose back up.  Using the worldometer figures the seven day rolling for infections average bottomed out on February 21st with 69,235.  Using the same standard the death number bottomed out as 1961 on February 20th.  

 

The numbers were at 70,225 and 2126 yesterday.  Whether the inching up is a blip or a the start of a new trend, it's too early to say obviously.  Nonetheless it has me a tad concerned.

Edited February 24, 2021 by CMJ

[Cr1028]

4 hours ago, CMJ said:

The few days the averages of both infections and deaths have started to nose back up.  Using the worldometer figures the seven day rolling for infections average bottomed out on February 21st with 69,235.  Using the same standard the death number bottomed out as 1961 on February 20th.  

 

The numbers were at 70,225 and 2126 yesterday.  Whether the inching up is a blip or a the start of a new trend, it's too early to say obviously.  Nonetheless it has me a tad concerned.

Im disappointed but not surprised. Lets hope it was just a brief uptick due to a backlog in reporting and the decline returns in the next couple of days.

[GrandGreen]

Coronavirus reporting is so heavily swayed by politics, it is very unreliable. 

For any positive slant, there has to be negatives released.  

Added to the political influences, now you have to be aware of the tremendous financial implications. 

[CMJ]

So you're implying the numbers themselves are untrustworthy then I suppose.  If that's the case why were total deaths in the US up by so much?  There has to be a reason.

 

https://usafacts.org/articles/preliminary-us-death-statistics-more-deaths-in-2020-than-2019-coronavirus-age-flu/

 

 

[southsideguy]

Every so often something from natures comes out to get us.  Maybe it is how it controls our population growth.   The last great one was the Spanish Flu, killed 50 million people and there was no vaccine for it.   It lasted about 1.5 years before we had herd immunity.   You ether died from it or built an immunity to it.  I am not saying we should not try to stop it but these things have happened and will continue to happen.  We will not get out of this world alive.  

Part of the numbers are skewed in the since if I have stage 4 cancer and I get covid and died I died from Covid when my days on earth were limited by the cancer.  

That side I wash my hands and wear a mask in fact covid has helped my exercise program.  I have increased my walking steps.  I get out of my car walk to the door of where I am going, remember I forgot to put my mask on, go back to the car and back to the door.

Take precautions but don't live in fear.

[greenminer]

5 hours ago, southsideguy said:

Every so often something from natures comes out to get us.

Human viruses: discovery and emergence

Found some pretty good reads about pandemics/history:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/
CDC: Past Pandemics
The WHO chronicles every single viral outbreak, year by year

[Censored by Laurie]

On 2/19/2021 at 5:29 PM, LongJim said:

Interesting info regarding possible herd immunity soon.  Hopefully it'll be accurate.

Herd Immunity By April? (Also--the NYT is a joke)

a few quick things. 

first...we should never really "level with the public". the public is dumb. like really dumb. while I do definitely believe that the media has been underselling to a degree the success of vaccine roll-outs in places (also, big kudos to Denton County and TMS), I think caution and a big picture look at what is for the greater good is important. simple fact is you start feeding too much optimism too quickly to a big group of fatigued people and behavior patterns will slide toward the dangerous. we're still in a high-risk time and with new variants popping up we need to have both an optimistic and vigilant message. 

second...I'm still pretty concerned with the math. herd immunity would mean somewhere between 65-80% vaccination rate...for the ENTIRE population. right now, only about 75% of the US population is even eligible for the vaccine since children can not yet be vaccinated. there are clinical trials moving forward and perhaps by summer there will be approved vaccines for children, but while their risk/transmission level is low, it still figures with herd immunity numbers. even take the low-end of vaccinations for herd immunity and you're relying on near 100% buy in from all adults on getting and/or accepting the vaccine. that surely isn't happening by April.

lastly...I don't know if the jab at the NYT was just involuntary response...but I guess all non-optimistic reporting can be far easily dismissed by one rosy op-ed? for everyone in the back...no one is cheering on Covid...but cold, realistic reporting on it is important

[LongJim]

9 minutes ago, Censored by Laurie said:

I don't know if the jab at the NYT was just involuntary response...

It wasn't. 

[Censored by Laurie]

On 2/28/2021 at 11:10 AM, southsideguy said:

Every so often something from natures comes out to get us.  Maybe it is how it controls our population growth.   The last great one was the Spanish Flu, killed 50 million people and there was no vaccine for it.   It lasted about 1.5 years before we had herd immunity.   You ether died from it or built an immunity to it.  I am not saying we should not try to stop it but these things have happened and will continue to happen.  We will not get out of this world alive.  

Part of the numbers are skewed in the since if I have stage 4 cancer and I get covid and died I died from Covid when my days on earth were limited by the cancer.  

That side I wash my hands and wear a mask in fact covid has helped my exercise program.  I have increased my walking steps.  I get out of my car walk to the door of where I am going, remember I forgot to put my mask on, go back to the car and back to the door.

Take precautions but don't live in fear.

the 🤷‍♂️  approach to a pandemic is a bad one. I mean, in life in general its a bad approach. why even brush your teeth if you're just gonna die? 

I honestly still can't believe we've people, a literal year in to this, still trying to make skewed numbers argument to lessen the significance of this. maybe we should start reconsidering seatbelt and airbag requirements since 65% of people who die in car crashes have a pre-existing condition? did you know JFK had asthma? #freeoswald



 

[greenminer]

16 hours ago, Censored by Laurie said:

the public is dumb. like really dumb. 

One thing the last year has revealed to me....

Even when equipped with more information than every before, armed with everything they need to make decisions for a greater good, people (not all, but a %) will still act according to either 1) what benefits the self, and/or 2) what benefits their political view ("stay outta my life, government!")

....even when it hurts the greater good.  Even if it cripples their community.

I would not want to be a politician...ever.  They have to grapple with some moral conflicts as they wrestle what to tell their communities and how to act for the sake of progress.