Updated Kevin Sumlin: Deal (Steal) of the Century

greenminer · January 1, 2021

31 minutes ago, wardly said:

Why would we be interested in a coach fired from his last two jobs? Because like a used car its a good deal? His career is going/has gone south.

I think the buddy-buddy system among college coaches is very strong. These guys are able to walk into a friend's office and spew off countless explanations for previous failures.

Pseudo Nym · October 16, 2021

Oh Yeah Reaction GIF by NBA

wardly · October 16, 2021

On 12/26/2020 at 8:56 PM, TheColonyEagle said:

I was complaining about our current situation to a fellow college football fan....

he said. “Who would you want?”

Kevin Sumlin was my answer.

Just asking, but if he is so good why was he fired at his last two schools?

wardly · October 16, 2021

On 12/29/2020 at 2:20 PM, Side Show Joe said:

I'd be happy to have Sumlin. He knows how to recruit Texas. And the fact that a Houston fan came all the way over just to deter our interest tells me they might ne nervous about the prospects of a Sumlin lead North Texas program. I have a general opinion that any hire the fans of other programs like, is probably not the best hire UNT could make. And, any hire that they hate, is probably the best move we could make.

I would like to hire someone on his way up not not a retread on his way down who was fired at his last two stops. Sumlin was just terrible at Arizona.

Pseudo Nym · October 16, 2021

An un-cited observation: a majority of coaches are either fired or resign and some point in their careers and this simple fact shouldn't be a deciding factor in whether or not to hire a coach, without further investigation. (Different sport but I think Karen Aston is one of the best basketball coaches in the country, not women's basketball, basketball period. The measuring stick at Texas for her was not advancing far enough in the tournament and not beating Baylor in the Big 12. UTSA didn't hesitate hiring her, she'll win C-USA within two years IMO).

I know you weren't asking me but I thought the article below was worth sharing. A friend of mine for his thesis project, cites this article as part of the foundation of the "Saban Scale" he is developing. I can't do it the same justice as he can in explaining his theory, but basically he proposes that the success of Nick Saban at Alabama has a had a negative effect of coaching hires and tenures at FBS schools. Basically that NIck Saban is not the standard but rather an anomaly and schools (AD'S) that try to chase the next Nick Saban and replicate the success he's had end up doing more harm than good for their programs. It's not to say that a program shouldn't have high standards and expectations, rather, if you take Nick Saban and Alabama out of the equation, school are more likely to evaluate success differently in the hiring, evaluation, and retainment process of coaches.

A snippet from the article: Win or Go Home: Why College Football Coaches Get Fired

‘Everyone knows’’ why coaches get fired: it’s because they don’t win enough. But this banal statement obscures the fact that some very interesting factors influence these institutional decisions. Such factors may generalize well beyond sport to shed light on why business executives such as CEOs are dismissed.

I explore how schools learn about the ability of a coach. No school sets out to hire a ‘‘loser;’’ but a coach is an experience good (Nelson, 1970) in the sense that his ability and fit at the school are not completely known when he is hired. Performance (i.e., wins and losses) reveal the coach’s (possibility institution-specific) ability. Common wisdom suggests that coaches be given an initial 5-year period in which to acclimate, recruit, and produce

Article Title
Win or Go Home: Why College Football Coaches Get Fired

Link
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227574439_Win_or_Go_Home_Why_College_Football_Coaches_Get_Fired

Citation
Holmes, Paul. (2010). Win or Go Home: Why College Football Coaches Get Fired. Journal of Sports Economics. 12. 157-178. 10.1177/1527002510378820.

Abstract
Models of dismissals of sports executives frequently ignore the development of expectations regarding performance. The author explores the interplay between these expectations and the coach's tenure by examining dismissals of college football head coaches from 1983 to 2006. Using a discrete-time hazard model, the author demonstrates that schools use prior performance in two ways: to evaluate the ability of the coach and to establish performance standards for retention. As recent performance is more relevant for estimating ability, the author shows that stronger recent performances decrease the chance of dismissal but stronger historic performances increase the chance of dismissal. Results describe a continual learning process on the part of schools. The author also considers the effects of race, insiderness, rivalries, and rules violations on retention.

NTXCoog · December 11, 2021

I know the head coach status has changed since this topic, but thought you'd enjoy an update.

Prairie View A&M has contacted Sumlin as a possibility for their open head coach position. Don't know if he has any interest, but it gives an indication of his status in the coaching ranks.

MeanGreenPatriot · December 11, 2021

On 12/31/2020 at 4:55 PM, Pseudo Nym said:

Appreciate it @xyresic (and for sure no offense taken) and @UNTLifer!!

More importantly though: Does no one "CAWWWW" anymore? That was a thing when I was in school!!! I was on campus for a day this summer but before that it's been a solid four or five years or so but I remember throwing up the Talon and "CAWWWING" when I was there haha!

Well, if you see a random person throwing up the talon and yelling "CAAWWWW" at you in an airport or elsewhere because you're wearing UNT gear, it's a safe bet that it's probably me lol! 😆😆

Crows caw, not eagles.

UNTLifer · December 11, 2021

2 minutes ago, MeanGreenPatriot said:

Crows caw, not eagles.

The Office Reaction GIF

SilverEagle · December 11, 2021

13 hours ago, UNTLifer said:

👍👍👍

Hunter Green · December 11, 2021

On 12/27/2020 at 8:28 AM, southsideguy said:

We are stuck with SL and his DC until the end. We will fire him like we did with Benford, when his contract is up. IMO SL has not been the same since he had his foot in the door at KSU. I bet the KSU are thinking they dodge a bullet on that hire.

Or when Mason and Harrell left.

MeanGreen4Life1998 · December 11, 2021

LOL you must not know football if you want Kevin Sumlin. The man had early success due to former HC Mike Sherman having a great eye for talent and then became any old average coach once they left. He has no idea what defense is, his offense is incredibly inconsistent, the teams he coached were soft. Only thing he could do well and consistently was recruit but only good enough to be a top tier Big 12 team and not an SEC team. You do not want Kevin Sumlin

Pseudo Nym · December 22, 2021

On 12/10/2021 at 8:26 PM, NTXCoog said:

I know the head coach status has changed since this topic, but thought you'd enjoy an update.

Prairie View A&M has contacted Sumlin as a possibility for their open head coach position. Don't know if he has any interest, but it gives an indication of his status in the coaching ranks.

Thanks.... Reminds me of when I recruit (D3 school) and a kid who has no offers and says that no one has showed any interest..... then he posts about our visit or the interest and all of a sudden he's got 10 offers...Might happen here with Sumlin with the PVAM report.... either way, I haven't changed my view or feelings towards SL or hiring Sumlin when I first made this post - I stand by it.

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On 12/11/2021 at 5:09 PM, MeanGreen4Life1998 said:

LOL you must not know football if you want Kevin Sumlin. The man had early success due to former HC Mike Sherman having a great eye for talent and then became any old average coach once they left. He has no idea what defense is, his offense is incredibly inconsistent, the teams he coached were soft. Only thing he could do well and consistently was recruit but only good enough to be a top tier Big 12 team and not an SEC team. You do not want Kevin Sumlin

If I knew football like apparently you do, I'd coach it..... I know about people, redemption, drive, experience, networking etc.... throw in a little marketing and financials as it pertains to this post I suppose

The question Sumlin should face in interviews: "You won at Houston, you won at A&M, coached a Heisman Trophy winner, and won coach of the year in multiple conferences, including the SEC, so what happened at Arizona? What did you take away from that experience? What have you learned? What would you do differently?" I don't think many AD's know what they want in the first place, dare to think too far outside the box, and are happier to follow the trail versus being a trailblazer.... UNT can not grow if we keep walking the roads others have walked, we've got to be trailblazers.... The old poem, "two roads diverged in a yellow wood (...........) and that has made all the difference,"

Whitman (I think) "it's not what you don't know that gets you in trouble, it's what you know for sure that just aint so."