Aune’s 1st Start - Statistical Perspective

[BillySee58]

We all watched the same game, we all saw the good and the bad moments, of which there were plenty of each. I dug a little deeper into the statistics of this performance to try and get some reference. 

 

Aune’s passing stat line:

28/47 for 339 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs

For Mean Green QBs this was the second most passing yards ever in a starting debut, behind Vizza’s 383 against Louisiana Lafayette in 2007. 

Aune averaged 7.2 yards/attempt in this game. Last season Mason Fine averaged 7.2 yards/attempt against FBS competition for the season. Aune threw the ball 47 times, which Fine only attempted as many or more passes 6 times in his 4-year career. The impressive part of that is zero interceptions among those 47 passes. Fine also was pickless in 3 of those 6 games.

Something we forget about Aune is that he was officially a walkon. From 2011-2019 we signed 14 quarterbacks to scholarships in those classes. Aune already has more passing yards than 10 of those 14 signed QBs had/have for their entire Mean Green careers.

Across Conference USA he is 2nd to Abraham in pass yards per game, which is based on his average over 3 games of which he really has only played about 2 full games worth of action with the rotating. He is tied for the second best TD/INT ratio in CUSA, and his passing efficiency of 147.6 is 6th in the conference, .5 points behind Abraham and with the 1st place guy at FIU only having 13 pass attempts so far. Mason Fine’s passing efficiency was 143.5 last year.

Like I said earlier, we all saw the bad moments in the start. Missed passes, slow start, fumbles, etc. But the purpose of this post was just to show how he has stacked up against the guys we have trotted out there and the guys other CUSA schools have. Also to remind ourselves of the context that this was his first start. If this is his starting point, it seems like a good one as far as him being a solid CUSA QB, even if he never becomes an all-CUSA QB.

Edited October 6, 2020 by BillySee58

[meanrob]

I would expect him to have decent stats since he’s played from behind in both games. 

Neither one of these QBs pass the eye test. 

[NorthTexasSportsNetwork]

I thought he did very well. You hit the nail on the head.

For a grade, he gets a B- possibly B

[southsideguy]

If he would have hit a few of those long passes it might have been a different game.   The receivers were getting open deep.

[MeanGreen_MBA]

3 of the 4 “TD” passes I put on the receiver. 2 dropped....actually hit the receiver in the hands. 1 of those, the defender made a decent play, but the receiver should have held on. The 2nd drop. The receiver payed out for it...had it, but dropped it when he hit the ground.  Another, I believe was #15, slowed down when he looked back and missed a sure TD by about a yard. Run thru the pass and that was a sure score. The QB is not always responsible for an incomplete pass. Those were all in the 1st half and would have been a game changer. 

[Wag Tag]

We saw a more than competent QB. You can win a lot of games with that. GMG

 

[MGNation92]

Sounds like you have a personal vendetta against Bean /s

[MeanGreen_MBA]

1 hour ago, MGNation92 said:

Sounds like you have a personal vendetta against Bean /s

I wish any QB we have in all the best. I love watching Bean run, and he looks like he has a mice deep ball as well. At least in the 1st game he did. I don’t care who starts...they are all our QB’s. 

[El Paso Eagle]

Question - With the depth at QB, and looking at redshirts and what's on the way, are any of the backups suited to play other positions? 

[Udomann]

I'm not "wowed" by either. And I think both could be serviceable. Most important is just get those reps. No more dual QBs, commit and make it fit. We are 3 games behind on that.

[Green Crazy]

I agree.  After rewatching the game I feel better about everything except the run defense.  We gifted that game to them with all the mistakes we made.  Bad mistakes, but mistakes that are easily correctable. 

Aune's first fumble is just carelessness with the ball in the pocket and I'm sure it will be worked on in practice. The second fumble was on an zone read play where the running back is our 4th string rb, Smith.  Not saying it was the rb's fault, but that they probably haven't had too much time together in the backfield.  Darden's pass was underthrown, but possibly should have been caught. The White pass was overthrown and could have been caught but only by making an exceptional catch.  I put that on Aune.  Two others were on the wr just not catching it and then he threw a ball way over Simpson's head who he later connected with.  This gives me hope for Aune. 

[greenminer]

12 hours ago, meanrob said:

I would expect him to have decent stats since he’s played from behind in both games. 

Neither one of these QBs pass the eye test. 

How did Fine, Vizza, and Scott Hall grade in the eye test for their first start?

[meanrob]

27 minutes ago, greenminer said:

How did Fine, Vizza, and Scott Hall grade in the eye test for their first start?

Fine and Hall both had something from the start. Vizza wasn’t so sure about even though it was obvious he could sling it. I wasn’t here for Maher’s first game but people that were liked him instantly. Even Riley had a presence about him. 

It’s not a failsafe prediction, he could gradually get better, some do. 

Having said that, you don’t get some OL help, stop falling behind quickly and better playcalling and it’s all moot. 

[Udomann]

42 minutes ago, greenminer said:

How did Fine, Vizza, and Scott Hall grade in the eye test for their first start?

Fine did well enough to displace Alabama's 17th string quarterback halfway into the game and keep it.

 

[greenminer]

11 minutes ago, meanrob said:

Fine and Hall both had something from the start. Vizza wasn’t so sure about even though it was obvious he could sling it. I wasn’t here for Maher’s first game but people that were liked him instantly. Even Riley had a presence about him. 

It’s not a failsafe prediction, he could gradually get better, some do. 

Having said that, you don’t get some OL help, stop falling behind quickly and better playcalling and it’s all moot. 

Aune doesn't appear to have the "it" factor that we tend to hold our hopes for, but I think he has demonstrated this weekend that he could service this offense if provided the opportunity.  We have so many weapons around the field, we don't need another Fine/Hall.  Just a guy who gets the ball to the right players at the right time.

When I say "provided the opportunity", I mean the same thing you said in your last point: he needs OL help, good playcalling, and better starts out of the gate.

...even better would be a damn good defense, but that appears out of the question under SL.

[BillySee58]

1 hour ago, greenminer said:

How did Fine, Vizza, and Scott Hall grade in the eye test for their first start?

 

27 minutes ago, meanrob said:

Fine and Hall both had something from the start. Vizza wasn’t so sure about even though it was obvious he could sling it. I wasn’t here for Maher’s first game but people that were liked him instantly. Even Riley had a presence about him. 

It’s not a failsafe prediction, he could gradually get better, some do. 

Having said that, you don’t get some OL help, stop falling behind quickly and better playcalling and it’s all moot. 

Let’s not forget Fine’s first start he was just 11-22 for 108 yards against an FCS school. The next week against Florida he was 6-22 for 66 yards. He threw 6 touchdown passes for the whole season. Sure we can say he showed something, but let’s not make it seem like he was good from the get go.

I get there’s a huge difference from a 27-year old redshirt sophomore and a 19-year old true freshman, but Aune is well ahead of where Fine was when he took over the starting job. Of course we shouldn’t expect as big of a leap as Fine made, but he’s going to get better with more reps just as every multi-year starting QB should. Even if he doesn’t have the “it” factor.

[meanrob]

18 minutes ago, BillySee58 said:

 

Let’s not forget Fine’s first start he was just 11-22 for 108 yards against an FCS school. The next week against Florida he was 6-22 for 66 yards. He threw 6 touchdown passes for the whole season. Sure we can say he showed something, but let’s not make it seem like he was good from the get go.

I get there’s a huge difference from a 27-year old redshirt sophomore and a 19-year old true freshman, but Aune is well ahead of where Fine was when he took over the starting job. Of course we shouldn’t expect as big of a leap as Fine made, but he’s going to get better with more reps just as every multi-year starting QB should. Even if he doesn’t have the “it” factor.

I’m cool with that. Like I said, it’s not set in stone. However, the idea that any QB gets better with reps is not set in stone either. We’ve had a long list who didn’t. 

Also, I think I could make the case that Fine was better in his head than Aune. Although Fine had a bad habit of holding the ball too long. Also some of it isn’t Aune. I’m not sold SL is making his quarterbacks better. Then again with no QB coach or designated OC this whole season may be a wash and nothing concrete will be determined by it. 

In the end, I just want obvious improvement at the position. Having a four year starter should’ve given us the leeway to be ready for this year.

Edited October 6, 2020 by meanrob

[Scrappy76]

I like the idea of taking a statistical approach. However, Aune's sample size is too small to really compare them at this point. That being said I don't think he did too terribly bad. There are things to improve on for sure but at least we picked a QB and stuck with him. 

[Cr1028]

8 hours ago, meanrob said:

Even Riley had a presence about him. 

Ball State, I remember. I was all pumped for the season thinking we had turned a corner, then the following week we lost the most grueling double overtime monsoon of a game in my life and never got back on track. That loss took a toll both physically and mentally on many folks, including players, coaches, and fans alike.

Edited October 7, 2020 by Cr1028

[greenb.o.g.]

6 hours ago, greenminer said:

How did Fine, Vizza, and Scott Hall grade in the eye test for their first start?

Had to dig in the archives for this one ...

Scott Hall's first start was as a true freshman on September 16, 2000, at UNLV. 

Stat wise, it was a less-than-stellar performance. Hall was 9 of 17 for 78 yards with no TDs and no INTs. He rushed 8 times for 21 yards.

Richard Bridges and Spencer Stack also saw action at quarterback. North Texas lost 38-0. 

[Eagle71]

Steve Ramsey's first start.  12 completions, 3 TDs, Beat Drake 31-0.  It's easier to win if the other team doesn't score.  Fly Like An Eagle!

[greenminer]

@Eagle71 great find!

[Monkeypox]

Hall was a true freshman, and we were running a ground-and-pound offense (and in 2000, we still had a lot of option in it) when he came on board. We had a total of 209 pass attempts on the season, with Hall accounting for 154 of them (last year we had 454, 504 in 2018).

I remember him coming in for the opener vs Baylor, and one of his first passes was an overthrow, and that's why I remember it. He was like a breath of fresh air. We've had athletes like that over the years, who, for one reason or another, seemed to have IT.... a lot of times historically for us it's at RB, but guys like Hall, Booger, Trice, Kassell also had it.

I don't know that it's a fair comparison to make with Aune at this time, if only because of his directly following Mason here. 

And I think we're in a problem situation because our defense is so bad and undermanned that without a QB who has IT, I'm not sure we can win much of anything. I think if everything was solid, you could have someone bus-drive the offense to an above-average/winning season in our conference. We, unfortunately, aren't in that position. So, to me, Aune isn't a problem right now, I just don't know if he's a solution, either, and I'd prefer a world where he didn't absolutely HAVE to be.

[El Paso Eagle]

7 hours ago, meanrob said:

Fine and Hall both had something from the start. Vizza wasn’t so sure about even though it was obvious he could sling it. I wasn’t here for Maher’s first game but people that were liked him instantly. Even Riley had a presence about him. 

It’s not a failsafe prediction, he could gradually get better, some do. 

Having said that, you don’t get some OL help, stop falling behind quickly and better playcalling and it’s all moot. 

With Riley every time he touched the ball it seemed like something good could happen. I believe Mr. Dodge had the "it" factor until injuries took their toll. 

[Christopher Walker]

6 hours ago, Cr1028 said:

Ball State, I remember. I was all pumped for the season thinking we had turned a corner, then the following week we lost the most grueling double overtime monsoon of a game in my life and never got back on track. That loss took a toll both physically and mentally on many folks, including players, coaches, and fans alike.

That Ohio game was the height of misery in retrospect. It wasn't the first UNT game I had ever attended, but it was my first as a student.

Edited October 7, 2020 by Christopher Walker