Covid update from Florida

[meangreen11]

 

[MeanGreenTeeth]

Yeah, if you're under 70, the death rate is pretty much the same as flu as I understand it (less deadly for children I think), but of course it is more transmissible so you're still going to have more people die in total.   I've known two people in their 40s who've gotten it and they both pretty much just felt lethargic for a few weeks and lost their sense of smell for a while.

Edited July 27, 2020 by MeanGreenTeeth

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

"On July 16, the state had a total of 23,170 children ages 17 and under who had tested positive since the beginning of the pandemic, according to the Florida Department of Health. By July 24, that number jumped to 31,150.

That's a 34% increase in new cases among children in eight days.

And more children in Florida are requiring hospitalization. As of July 16, 246 children had been hospitalized with coronavirus. By July 24, that number had jumped to 303.

That's a 23% increase in child Covid-19 hospitalizations in eight days."

5 children have died - a 9 year old without risk factors died at the end of last week. 
 

[MeanGreenTeeth]

1 hour ago, SteaminWillieBeamin said:

"On July 16, the state had a total of 23,170 children ages 17 and under who had tested positive since the beginning of the pandemic, according to the Florida Department of Health. By July 24, that number jumped to 31,150.

That's a 34% increase in new cases among children in eight days.

And more children in Florida are requiring hospitalization. As of July 16, 246 children had been hospitalized with coronavirus. By July 24, that number had jumped to 303.

That's a 23% increase in child Covid-19 hospitalizations in eight days."

5 children have died - a 9 year old without risk factors died at the end of last week. 
 

That's tragic, no doubt, but I don't think that refutes the OPs assertion.   That's 5 out of 31k and given that only a fraction of children who have it are probably tested, the risk is quite miniscule (CDC itself shows that 3x the number of kids 14 and under have died from flu vs COVID).

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

29 minutes ago, MeanGreenTeeth said:

That's tragic, no doubt, but I don't think that refutes the OPs assertion.   That's 5 out of 31k and given that only a fraction of children who have it are probably tested, the risk is quite miniscule (CDC itself shows that 3x the number of kids 14 and under have died from flu vs COVID).

First - when they say "kids don't have a lot of symptoms" - they mean less than 10 years old. 

10+ aged "kids" show the same symptoms as adults. 

Let's see where that number goes when the hallways look like this: 

 

Edited July 27, 2020 by SteaminWillieBeamin

[MeanGreenTeeth]

17 minutes ago, SteaminWillieBeamin said:

First - when they say "kids don't have a lot of symptoms" - they mean less than 10 years old. 

10+ aged "kids" show the same symptoms as adults. 

Let's see where that number goes when the hallways look like this: 

 

1.  You're making random arguments against positions neither I nor the OP have taken, and 2. Let's see the state our children's education will be in if they don't physically go to school for two years.  This isn't a simple black and white issue.     

Edited July 27, 2020 by MeanGreenTeeth

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

9 minutes ago, MeanGreenTeeth said:

1.  You're making random arguments against positions neither I nor the OP have taken, and 2. Let's see the state our children's education will be in if they don't physically go to school for two years.  This isn't a simple black or white issue.     

Huh? Random?

The pool of people under 55 that he is quoting INCLUDE all the kids and young adults -- who currently are NOT exposing themselves right now... with this 'lockdown'. So when you open up and add them, you will see that number change. 

Same for the pool of people between 18 and 55 and his great statistics for their risk. Let's just "open up" and get all back to the office and see where the number goes. Right now it is neatly (and purposely) padded by people not going into the office. You can look at the statistics that only includes "essential" worker and the infection and fatality rates are way higher. 

That Twitter guy is very much in the 'this is a hoax' side of the argument. 

He also linked to an article about face masks - implying that the Dane's are recommending not to use them. Which is definitely not true when you read the article. They say they study suggests that we need eye shields as well, not just masks, but since the spread right now is so minimal - they don't require them because they think it will make people be "sloppy." Instead they are focusing on the message of hand washing and staying at home when sick. However, they not their numbers of infection are increasing - so they may need to change. 

But that didn't stop the covid-hoaxer to post a link trying to imply something else. 

Just  like  his original numbers. They do not tell the whole story. 
 

Edited July 27, 2020 by SteaminWillieBeamin

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

21 minutes ago, MeanGreenTeeth said:

Let's see the state our children's education will be in if they don't physically go to school for two years. 

This is a strawman. No one is arguing for distance education for two years.

When a community is not having active spread for two straight weeks and the positive rate is below 5% - IN PERSON school can resume. That is straight from the CDC guidelines.  We all agree that in person school is the best. 

Dallas does not meet this criteria (yet).

BUT - Are we an exceptional country? I've always heard this is true. Can't we figure out how to educate differently in a time of need? Seem like we should be able to do it - until we can return to the classroom. 
 

Edited July 27, 2020 by SteaminWillieBeamin

[TIgreen01]

51 minutes ago, SteaminWillieBeamin said:

First - when they say "kids don't have a lot of symptoms" - they mean less than 10 years old. 

10+ aged "kids" show the same symptoms as adults. 

Let's see where that number goes when the hallways look like this: 

 

The halls aren’t going to look like that everywhere.  Where I’m at only 44% opted for face to face (in school) this fall.  The numbers for Frisco schools were made public, and they are all over the map...but most schools would be less than 50% capacity.  I have my doubts that we’re going to be allowed to do anything other than virtual school this fall, though.

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

2 minutes ago, TIgreen01 said:

The halls aren’t going to look like that everywhere.  Where I’m at only 44% opted for face to face (in school) this fall.  The numbers for Frisco schools were made public, and they are all over the map...but most schools would be less than 50% capacity.  I have my doubts that we’re going to be allowed to do anything other than virtual school this fall, though.

That is certainly a good point for some school. For Thor's school he was saying it was the vast majority in school.

My kid's school has not released their numbers yet, but for the elementary grades anyhow, they were going half time through the fall. So the halls would be half filled. 

The middle school and high school is really up to how many parents decide to keep their kids at home in the fall. The hallways COULD still look like that. 

[MeanGreenTeeth]

37 minutes ago, SteaminWillieBeamin said:

This is a strawman. No one is arguing for distance education for two years.

When a community is not having active spread for two straight weeks and the positive rate is below 5% - IN PERSON school can resume. That is straight from the CDC guidelines.  We all agree that in person school is the best. 

Dallas does not meet this criteria (yet).

BUT - Are we an exceptional country? I've always heard this is true. Can't we figure out how to educate differently in a time of need? Seem like we should be able to do it - until we can return to the classroom. 
 

Well..no one in their right mind is going to go out and declare 2 years of closings now of course.. but given the standards you laid out that might not be unreasonable in the bigger population areas as it ebbs and flows.  There are a large proportion of schools in the country that have already canceled in-school for the fall. I don't think it unlikely that many of those will continue to cancel in the spring. 

In regards to educating differently in a time of need.. of course.. and the teachers and administrators will likely do the best they can, but distance education simply isn't going to be as good over the long-term, especially for younger kids and those kids who don't have much in the way of parental support (which sadly is far too many).  So yeah, the suburban kids who have parents who can afford to either spend time with their kids on their lessons or hire a tutor will be more or less fine.  The poor kids who have parents who don't speak English or come from a home of a single working parent are going to have a tougher go of it.   

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

28 minutes ago, MeanGreenTeeth said:

The poor kids who have parents who don't speak English or come from a home of a single working parent are going to have a tougher go of it.   

You how they would have a tougher time? When the bring home COVID and kill a parent.  

"The agency reported that more than a third of deaths among Hispanic Americans (34.9%) and almost a third of deaths among non-white Americans (29.5%) were in people younger than 65. That compares to 13.2% among white people under that age.
...
Non-white Americans (median age 31) are younger as a whole than white Americans (median age 44), but Covid-19 deaths among those under age 65 exceeded their proportion of the population. The researchers found that 33.9% of people under 65 who died were Hispanic, yet they account for just 20% of the under-65 population in the U.S. Similarly, Black, Asian, and other non-white people accounted for 40.2% of deaths under 65, though they make up just 23% of those under 65 nationally. Black people accounted for 30% of deaths under age 65; Asian people and multiracial people accounted for 6.1% and 4.1%, respectively."

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6928e1.htm?s_cid=mm6928e1_w

Edited July 27, 2020 by SteaminWillieBeamin

[MeanGreenTeeth]

1 hour ago, SteaminWillieBeamin said:

You how they would have a tougher time? When the bring home COVID and kill a parent.  

"The agency reported that more than a third of deaths among Hispanic Americans (34.9%) and almost a third of deaths among non-white Americans (29.5%) were in people younger than 65. That compares to 13.2% among white people under that age.
...
Non-white Americans (median age 31) are younger as a whole than white Americans (median age 44), but Covid-19 deaths among those under age 65 exceeded their proportion of the population. The researchers found that 33.9% of people under 65 who died were Hispanic, yet they account for just 20% of the under-65 population in the U.S. Similarly, Black, Asian, and other non-white people accounted for 40.2% of deaths under 65, though they make up just 23% of those under 65 nationally. Black people accounted for 30% of deaths under age 65; Asian people and multiracial people accounted for 6.1% and 4.1%, respectively."

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6928e1.htm?s_cid=mm6928e1_w

Well, you see, this is where parents get to use their judgement to make a decision about what's best for their kids and their family.  A healthy 29 year old single woman working two jobs may make a different choice about sending her 7 year old kid to campus than a diabetic mother of a 15 year old.

[Censored by Laurie]

4 hours ago, MeanGreenTeeth said:

Well..no one in their right mind is going to go out and declare 2 years of closings now of course.. but given the standards you laid out that might not be unreasonable in the bigger population areas as it ebbs and flows.   

society's decision making should've from the beginning and needs to be moving forward reactive to the virus, not our own concept of normalcy. I think all of us should at bare minimum be preparing for the idea that life two years from now still doesn't look the way it did 6 months ago...especially as we continue to send messages that try to lessen or degrade the severity of the virus. 

the simple fact is that the virus spreads and at a certain point that spread is debilitating to a community. 

we can control economic mechanism. we can control educational mechanisms. we can't control contagion. 

[Censored by Laurie]

Just now, Censored by Laurie said:

society's decision making should've from the beginning and needs to be moving forward reactive to the virus, not our own concept of normalcy. I think all of us should at bare minimum be preparing for the idea that life two years from now still doesn't look the way it did 6 months ago...especially as we continue to send messages that try to lessen or degrade the severity of the virus. 

the simple fact is that the virus spreads and at a certain point that spread is debilitating to a community. 

we can control economic mechanism. we can control educational mechanisms. we can't control contagion. 

and I'm quoting myself and making this a separate post so it doesn't get looped in to the above point

(and so all of you boring old white men can give me more -1s rather than trying to articulate your thoughts and engage in argument...your -1s are my GMG-life-blood...I'm like a douchebaging vampire for them...feed me)

both or economic and educational systems have needed major overall and modernization anyway. covid can be the big reset button if we're smart enough to utilize it (gosh, I know we're not)
 

[UNTLifer]

14 hours ago, Censored by Laurie said:

both or economic and educational systems have needed major overall and modernization anyway. 

Why does our economic system needed a major overhaul?  What would you prefer to our current system?

Edited July 28, 2020 by UNTLifer

[KRAM1]

1 hour ago, UNTLifer said:

Why does our economic system needed a major overhaul?  What would you prefer to our current system?

It doesn't.  But a whole lot of the "everyone gets a ribbon" generation seems to think it does...see, when you don't have to earn things, your perspective gets a tad "changed".

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

9 minutes ago, KRAM1 said:

It doesn't.  But a whole lot of the "everyone gets a ribbon" generation seems to think it does...see, when you don't have to earn things, your perspective gets a tad "changed".

I guess the thinning of the middle class is not a problem in your vision. Even though the US's main dominance has been a large middle class. But the economic system has morphed into huge amount of wealth being held by a very small percentage. Like in China. 

So, nothing to see here folks. 

[KRAM1]

On 7/28/2020 at 11:53 AM, SteaminWillieBeamin said:

I guess the thinning of the middle class is not a problem in your vision. Even though the US's main dominance has been a large middle class. But the economic system has morphed into huge amount of wealth being held by a very small percentage. Like in China. 

So, nothing to see here folks. 

Nope.  Not the "system's" fault.  Correct...nothing to see here folks.  Unless, of course, you need another participation trophy.

[Cr1028]

On 7/28/2020 at 11:53 AM, SteaminWillieBeamin said:

I guess the thinning of the middle class is not a problem in your vision. Even though the US's main dominance has been a large middle class. But the economic system has morphed into huge amount of wealth being held by a very small percentage. Like in China. 

So, nothing to see here folks. 

I feel like the decision in November is going to have a major impact on how bad China does or doesn’t have us in the palm of their hand.

As far as the wealth inequality, there are many factors, some motivation-driven, some outsourcing-driven, some savings-driven, some risk-driven, some simple math driven (10% growth in $1M is way more [$100k] than 10% growth on $50k [$5k]), and many more I’m sure I missed.

There is no simple answer but I do know that a percentage growth on millions will always be more than the same percentage growth on thousands. The only way to remedy that would be to cause the millions number to have a flat or negative growth rate for an extended amount of time while the thousands number would need a very high growth rate for an equally extended period.

Edited August 3, 2020 by Cr1028

[keith]

On 7/27/2020 at 4:20 PM, SteaminWillieBeamin said:

That Twitter guy is very much in the 'this is a hoax' side of the argument. 
 

One thing the left/Democrats/MSM is good at is making up a lie and then building a cottage industry around it.  Assuming this refers to the falsehood of Trump calling the virus a hoax, that isn't what he said at all.  What he said was that the Democrats' portrayal/criticism of his administration's response to the virus was *their* next big hoax.  He never called the virus a hoax, but that's what everyone repeats.  He had repeatedly referred to Russia-gate and everything else his political opponents have thrown at him as hoaxes and this was the next one his opponents were trotting out.  Personally, I don't care if people love Trump or hate Trump, but let's at least be honest.

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

22 minutes ago, keith said:

but let's at least be honest.

Um... huh? I didn't mention Trump. 

I suppose I need to write a paragraph to explain what "this" means? In this case, "this" refers to the reaction to COVID. 

[Coffee and TV]

28 minutes ago, keith said:

 Assuming this refers to the falsehood of Trump calling the virus a hoax, that isn't what he said at all.  What he said was that the Democrats' portrayal/criticism of his administration's response to the virus was *their* next big hoax. 

Imagine trying to make the argument that Dems are building a big lie based on semantics when the actual point that Trump was trying to make was a lie in the first place. His administration's response has sucked shit enormously so I guess it's not a hoax anymore. 

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

It's especially rich considering how Trump himself can't be bothered to be consistent on what he is calling a 'hoax.' It's mostly stuff he doesn't agree with is lumped into either "fake" or "hoax." Which is completely insane. Like... global warming is a hoax invented by China to hurt the US.  His gut tells him what is fake or a hoax - 100% reliable. 

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

On 8/2/2020 at 12:05 PM, Cr1028 said:

he only way to remedy that would be to cause the millions number to have a flat or negative growth rate for an extended amount of time while the thousands number would need a very high growth rate for an equally extended period.

I don't think this is true. If we got back to a living wage instead of a minimum wage, made higher education actually affordable so students aren't drowning in debt right out of college and made health care something that won't bankrupt you -- that goes a long way.