Why we may be reaching a tipping point for the Power Five to break away from the FBS

wardly · May 28, 2020

In a perfect world I would classify universities based upon their athletic budget. You then would get three levels ,Division 1,1A, and 1AA.If high schools can classify based upon size, universities should be able to classify on money. Size of stadium and attendance requirements mean nothing, otherwise UL Monroe and LSU would not be in the same division.

GrandGreen · May 28, 2020

2 hours ago, untjim1995 said:

At least there is a champion that most people need to look up...I'd take that chance, while playing the other 64 G5 teams, who we currently play 10 games a year against. It beats the hell out of winning CUSA and getting to play a MAC or SBC team in a bowl with about 30% of the stadium filled, hoping to get a few votes for the final rankings.

Last year, FAU won CUSA. And just like in 2017, their reward was a bowl game at home against a MAC/AAC team. In 2018, UAB won CUSA and got to play in Boca Raton against Northern Illinois, who was 8-5. Absolutely nobody cared outside of those fanbases.

Now, imagine those teams playing in a playoff system. FAU, UAB, SMU, NIU, any other teams that would've made the playoffs--I guarantee that gets more coverage from the media than North Dakota State, James Madison, Youngstown State, or any other FCS teams.

That you cannot see that is just amazing to me...

I'm amazed a great NT fan would give up the dream so easily.

I have seen it ala 1aa. Explain to me how it would be one iota different.

I also wonder why you would think being in a playoff against the very teams that you think no one cares about in a bowl game would advance the program.

I am not so sure your new association championship would get more national coverage. It is more likely that NT coverage would sink to the levels of the D2 teams cited.

untjim1995 · May 28, 2020

58 minutes ago, GrandGreen said:

I'm amazed a great NT fan would give up the dream so easily.

I have seen it ala 1aa. Explain to me how it would be one iota different.

I also wonder why you would think being in a playoff against the very teams that you think no one cares about in a bowl game would advance the program.

I am not so sure your new association championship would get more national coverage. It is more likely that NT coverage would sink to the levels of the D2 teams cited.

I-AA is now FCS today. The best teams in that level of play are NDSU, Montana, James Madison, Delaware, Villanova, McNeese State, and Sam Houston State.

AT the G5 level of play, the best names are Boise State, UCF, UH, Memphis, Cincinnati, Fresno State, San Diego State, Air Force, Navy, USF, Louisiana Tech, Troy, Appalachian State, and the rest of the MAC, SBC, CUSA, AAC, and MWC.

So nobody would care more about UNT versus Troy in a playoff scenario versus the New Orleans Bowl?

You're wrong on so many levels here, its not even funny.

TheColonyEagle · May 29, 2020

Why do some look at this as "don't make the decision to move down" like we're going to have a choice?

Meaning: if the P5 break away from NCAA and decide to just play each other...what are we supposed to do about it?

Edited May 29, 2020 by TheColonyEagle

Jonnyeagle · May 29, 2020

untjim1995 · May 29, 2020

22 minutes ago, TheColonyEagle said:

Why do some look at this as "don't make the decision to move down" like we're going to have a choice?

Meaning: if the P5 break away from NCAA and decide to just play each other...what are we supposed to do about it?

It really is amazing...

TheColonyEagle · May 29, 2020

IF/When this happens.....we are rather lucky in that we are in a good spot geographically surrounded by schools with some sort of tradition....and the other amazing thing is the SMU, Houston, UCF, etc...think the same way some here think. "no way will we "MOVE DOWN"....Again...they're not going to have a choice. The 65 P5 teams will want to shed some of the dead weight they have now...why would they want to take an SMU with them? Alabama doesn't care about SMU or UH. I got into an argument with an ECU fan and he just kept telling me how much money they have and showing me their facilities....dude......Alabama and Texas and Clemson don't care about you or your little athletic budget. Those schools and TV are in control.

The fear of the G5s is that when the P5 breaks away...we'll be irrelevant (like we're not now) However, this new world is not going to be like when we went down to 1AA. We're not going to be playing McNeese State. We're going to be playing La Tech and SMU and Southern Miss and UH. Because they'll be right there with us.

Which gets back to my first point....UNT is actually lucky in our location will still have interest for media and in our footprint. I would hate to be MTSU or a MAC school...

I've gone back and forth on this but a potential playoff with a semifinal of Boise St, UCF, Cincinatti and App St? That would garner some interest. That's not equivalent to James Madison, Sam Houston, etc.

Edit: and I'll add....the schools that should really be concerned about this are the FCS schools...this will push them further out.

Edited May 29, 2020 by TheColonyEagle

Jonnyeagle · May 29, 2020

97and03 · May 31, 2020

“Autonomy Five”

GrayEagle · June 1, 2020

I don't think that anyone yet knows how this will play out and we could be getting our panties in a wad over nothing.

One thought is why should anything change? P5 already controls Division I and there is little incentive for them to change anything. If they just try arbitrarily to kick everybody downstairs they could be subject to anti-trust. If they make unreasonable qualifications to be in P5 then they might have to kick some of their members out because there are some G5s who have bigger stadiums, better attendance, in bigger markets, etc. that would then be P5s.

Another scenario is that the P5 members bolt the NCAA and form a new association. That would move the the current G5s up to P5s; or there might not be a need for a top tier and some of the better FCS members could move up to FBS. Schools like North Dakota State, Montana, JMU and others could hold their own while moving up. Just set standards for them to meet and allow them in after they have qualified. Then we might divide the current members and qualifiers into regional conferences, saving thousands of dollars in travel. Our contracts might bring in more money than we currently get because we won't be just the leftovers...we'll be the strongest of what's left. Some who are G5 members now could fall back to FCS if they don't meet qualifications. That would eliminate the 'good old boy' clique.

They could also make the P5s even more elite by taking the top 32, 40 or whatever that are in the largest markets and draw the largest crowds and move them to a new association; leaving the lesser lights to remain in the NCAA. In the name of money they would be willing to tear up 140 years of college football. They can call it what they want but I'll call it greed.

Edited June 1, 2020 by GrayEagle

untjim1995 · June 1, 2020

I don't think the NCAA will give this up without a good fight...not because of an anti-trust lawsuit, which will never go the NCAA's way, but because they need the P5 giants for eyeballs and $$$.

The NCAA makes so much from people watching college football and basketball. Licensing from apparel and other items. Sponsors that pay the NCAA and their networks for the rights to advertise during their games and getting a piece of the pie. People overwhelmingly watch these brands in football today: Alabama, Florida, LSU, Clemson, FSU, Georgia, Miami, Penn State, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Auburn, USC, and Oregon. You can probably throw in another 5-10 names, also, but this represents the cream of the crop. The NCAA isn't going to just let them go--they will give them way more control and way less compliance to their rules than they will to the rest, unless its just obviously bad (see Penn State). They will go after lesser brands (even in the P5) to keep these others up at the top. Ole Miss and Baylor, as perfect examples, were easy to get in trouble, because they are lesser brands and were challenging the top end of their conferences.

Again, when UT and others bring in multiple times more revenue than we and other G5s do, it just isn't fair to keep saying its ok for them to be playing us. And to then say its ok for the G5s to not ever have any chance of being included in a playoff for a championship because the G5s get the "opportunity" to play (and get paid) bodybag games and also be given the chance to play someone from the P5s in a bigger bowl game outside of the playoff is just a really sad commentary on how much these G5s need money and accept their secondary status. I would love to see a 8-team playoff in December for the G5s that involve the conference champions and 3 other wild cards. For those that don't make the playoffs, let them still play bowl games if there is demand for it. You cannot convince me that there wouldn't be national interest for these games, ESPECIALLY while the P5s aren't playing their bowl games, which are almost always after Christmas anyways.

Imagine this hypothetical:

2nd week of December at geographical neutral sites (i.e, Tampa, St. Louis, Phoenix, and Detroit):

UCF vs FAU Appy State vs Cincinnati Boise State vs La Tech Memphis vs Northern Illinois

3rd week in December at geographical neutral site (San Antonio and Atlanta)

4th week of December at a national championship venue