Why we may be reaching a tipping point for the Power Five to break away from the FBS

Jonnyeagle · May 27, 2020

To put it more plainly, a separation of the Power Five conferences from the NCAA has long been possible. Those 65 schools, including independent Notre Dame, already exist as separate entities -- financially, competitively and even corporately. But with the coronavirus ratcheting up the stakes, a tipping point may be at hand.

"I'm telling you, if you or I were going to place a bet on a stock … you could double down on the Power Five being a separate entity now within two years," said Vince Thompson, founder and CEO of MELT, an Atlanta-based sports and entertainment marketing firm.

"The next year will be a critical year for the NCAA," Tatos said. "It will be a critical year for college athletics as a whole. But I think we are starting to see how professional this enterprise is, how divorced it is from any type of education. Schools are starting to make decisions on financial points, [saying], 'This is amateur sports? This whole charade is coming to an end.'"

If the financial reckoning becomes severe enough, entire athletic departments could go away. Already, the Mid-American Conference is slashing budgets and sports. Never mind athletics, Akron cut six of its 11 departments within the university.

"We're going to lose institutions," Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick predicted. "We're going to have a number of member institutions who won't be involved in college education in 3-4 years."

read more: https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/why-we-may-be-reaching-a-tipping-point-for-the-power-five-to-break-away-from-the-fbs/

Edited May 27, 2020 by Jonnyeagle

Jonnyeagle · May 27, 2020

Quote

Don't necessarily think of those 65 schools would be completely alone. They'd most likely have to play somebody. Think about a group of, say, the top 90 or 100 schools to enhance scheduling and a television contract.

This is where we oughta be positioning for IMHO.

Edited May 27, 2020 by Jonnyeagle

Wag Tag · May 27, 2020

8 minutes ago, Jonnyeagle said:

This is where we oughta be positioning for IMHO.

This group should also say goodbye to the NCAA!

untjim1995 · May 27, 2020

I have posted on This subject many times over the years. This will happen—either within the NCAA or outside of the NCAA. The top 65 schools have all their networks and media coverage, plus they own the state and federal legislatures.

My guess is that the NCAA will let them have work own official category for football only, just so they don’t lose them for the College Basketball Tournaments, College World Series, or other college sports championships. Because if they split away From the NCAA, the network money goes away too. ESPN and CBS and NBC and Fox want the Power Conference top teams—which is why they accept the lower names in those leagues (Miss State, Wazzu, Iowa State, Wake Forest, and Northwestern as examples). The money, fans, and media are with those power schools. The NCAA knows this and will do whatever they can to keep those programs as happy as they can. Otherwise, they don’t exist in any way that is similar to today.

NorthTexasSportsNetwork · May 27, 2020

2 minutes ago, untjim1995 said:

I have posted on This subject many times over the years. This will happen—either within the NCAA or outside of the NCAA. The top 65 schools have all their networks and media coverage, plus they own the state and federal legislatures.

My guess is that the NCAA will let them have work own official category for football only, just so they don’t lose them for the College Basketball Tournaments, College World Series, or other college sports championships. Because if they split away From the NCAA, the network money goes away too. ESPN and CBS and NBC and Fox want the Power Conference top teams—which is why they accept the lower names in those leagues (Miss State, Wazzu, Iowa State, Wake Forest, and Northwestern as examples). The money, fans, and media are with those power schools. The NCAA knows this and will do whatever they can to keep those programs as happy as they can. Otherwise, they don’t exist in any way that is similar to today.

Some of those 65 don't belong, but would this be the same in basketball?

untjim1995 · May 27, 2020

9 minutes ago, NorthTexasSportsNetwork said:

Some of those 65 don't belong, but would this be the same in basketball?

Not if the NCAA can appease the Power 5 schools to stay within the organization.

Trust me, if they leave the NCAA, the Big East Basketball ain’t sticking around the NCAA either. You literally would see an entirely new basketball tournaments, College World Series’ For baseball and softball, Frozen Four for hockey, and Track championships.

Right now, the NCAA gets FCS football on network TV and other non-entities of interest because of the network deals they sign. Good luck getting any TV money for your G5/FCS teams if the P5s pull away. We will see SEASONS of football and hoops on Facebook/YouTube/Hulu, etc...

FirefightnRick · May 27, 2020

Go ahead and make another pro football league for me not to care about. That will free up even more of my time on Saturday’s in the fall.

Rick

Jonnyeagle · May 27, 2020

36 minutes ago, untjim1995 said:

I have posted on This subject many times over the years. This will happen—either within the NCAA or outside of the NCAA. The top 65 schools have all their networks and media coverage, plus they own the state and federal legislatures.

My guess is that the NCAA will let them have work own official category for football only, just so they don’t lose them for the College Basketball Tournaments, College World Series, or other college sports championships. Because if they split away From the NCAA, the network money goes away too. ESPN and CBS and NBC and Fox want the Power Conference top teams—which is why they accept the lower names in those leagues (Miss State, Wazzu, Iowa State, Wake Forest, and Northwestern as examples). The money, fans, and media are with those power schools. The NCAA knows this and will do whatever they can to keep those programs as happy as they can. Otherwise, they don’t exist in any way that is similar to today.

My question is do you think they will bring 25 or so teams from the G5 to use as easy wins to ramp up the top P5 team W/L records? This might provide us an opportunity to move up at that time.

Wag Tag · May 27, 2020

The power is who has the content not who organizes content like the NCAA does. They can and should be replaced with a phone call. Who cares what you call the the tournament or the championship. Amateur athletics is gone.

Aquila_Viridis · May 27, 2020

I think it's more like 30 teams, you know who they are, with games in which I have no interest.

On another note, I finally got a 'smartTV'. I would have no issue watching NT games on some of the channels available on that thing.

NorthTexasSportsNetwork · May 27, 2020

1 hour ago, untjim1995 said:

Not if the NCAA can appease the Power 5 schools to stay within the organization.

Trust me, if they leave the NCAA, the Big East Basketball ain’t sticking around the NCAA either. You literally would see an entirely new basketball tournaments, College World Series’ For baseball and softball, Frozen Four for hockey, and Track championships.

Right now, the NCAA gets FCS football on network TV and other non-entities of interest because of the network deals they sign. Good luck getting any TV money for your G5/FCS teams if the P5s pull away. We will see SEASONS of football and hoops on Facebook/YouTube/Hulu, etc...

That would just absolutely kill recruiting

NorthTexasSportsNetwork · May 27, 2020

24 minutes ago, Aquila_Viridis said:

I think it's more like 30 teams, you know who they are, with games in which I have no interest.

On another note, I finally got a 'smartTV'. I would have no issue watching NT games on some of the channels available on that thing.

Does that TV have Facebook?

southsideguy · May 28, 2020

so which schools will not exist anymore?

GrandGreen · May 28, 2020

People have been predicted this for decades.

Not going to happen because the upper crust of programs has nothing to gain and a lot they could lose.

They already get most of the money and coverage.

They are smart enough to know it is a scheme that could continue as the new bottom teams can't compete.

Keep cutting out teams and you destroy interest from the general college fan. If fans want to watch pros than they already have a better league.

The obvious strategy should be to put a lid on spending and make sports more competitive. Football is already non-competitive for 75% of the teams.

If nothing else sports administrators and coaches are smart enough to know that less teams means less jobs and opportunities.

Aquila_Viridis · May 28, 2020

5 hours ago, NorthTexasSportsNetwork said:

Does that TV have Facebook?

Yes; it even has gomeangreen.com. I'm looking at it right now! 😄

untjim1995 · May 28, 2020

College Football likes it’s powerful teams to stay powerful. These teams have won or played for the title or playoffs since 1991

Washington, Nebraska, Florida, Michigan, Tennessee, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Miami, Ohio State, LSU, USC, Texas, Alabama, Auburn, Oregon, Notre Dame, Georgia and Clemson.

Thats 19 teams who have won the MNC, lost in the championship game, or played in the recently invented playoffs.

19

Out of 65 Power Teams. Add in 65 more G5 teams. 14.6% of FBS has played for a title in some way since 1991.

That’s protecting your golden geese. The NCAA isn’t giving that up without a huge fight.

untjim1995 · May 28, 2020

6 hours ago, FirefightnRick said:

Go ahead and make another pro football league for me not to care about. That will free up even more of my time on Saturday’s in the fall.

Rick

I’d be so fine with it, as well. We don’t need to be playing Texas, A&M, OU, Bama, etc... it’s be like the Yankees playing the Frisco RoughRiders in a series. It’s not even remotely close.

Aquila_Viridis · May 28, 2020

You're right. The day is not far when the budgets will be in the 10:1 range.

MrAlien · May 28, 2020

If it was just about football I could see this making a little more sense, but basketball generates way to much revenue for many of those P5 schools to walk away from.

Blue Horse · May 28, 2020

39 minutes ago, MrAlien said:

If it was just about football I could see this making a little more sense, but basketball generates way to much revenue for many of those P5 schools to walk away from.

I would disagree with you on this point. People get asked what they love about the tournament and say "the upsets." Do you know what the P5 schools hate about the tournament? The upsets. It exposes the flaws in their superiority argument. If I were the P5, I'd add the Big East for basketball and have a smaller tournament. Big names but with fewer schools to split the money. Yeah, it's a little more predictable, but if I'm the P5, that's okay by me.

letsgiveacheer · May 28, 2020

13 hours ago, southsideguy said:

so which schools will not exist anymore?

People know about the small, exclusive, private schools primarily in the east like Oberlin, Williams, Colby, Amherst, etc. These schools are heavily endowed and in excellent financial shape. But for every Amherst, there are probably twenty other small, private schools that operate, in the best of times, on the brink of financial insolvency. My guess is that he is referring to these schools.

I was an adjunct at one of these types of schools for almost twenty years. Full professors were paid about 60K and it went down from there. They were constantly trying to find another institution to take them over.

untjim1995 · May 28, 2020

56 minutes ago, Blue Horse said:

I would disagree with you on this point. People get asked what they love about the tournament and say "the upsets." Do you know what the P5 schools hate about the tournament? The upsets. It exposes the flaws in their superiority argument. If I were the P5, I'd add the Big East for basketball and have a smaller tournament. Big names but with fewer schools to split the money. Yeah, it's a little more predictable, but if I'm the P5, that's okay by me.

Exactly. I wouldn't be surprised to see them add in the WCC, too, just because Gonzaga, St.Mary's, and BYU are in it.

And I believe BYU will also be included in the Power breakaway, as well. They are just a smaller Notre Dame.

It will be ok, folks, when this happens. You'll still be able to see our teams play the same teams they always play, save for the body bag game(s). Give our players, coaches, and fans a chance to actually be a national champion. This is the only level of football that has absolutely no chance of having a national champion--hell, they can't even contend for one in a playoff. See UCF, Boise State, UH, etc...

The media doesn't care about anyone at this level anyway--a poll that was done about 10 years ago showed that the vast majority of sports journalists that covered college athletics spent 95% of their time on Power programs. They go where the eyeballs and the money lies--and its with the golden geese I mentioned above, as well as their less golden cousins that are in these conferences with them.

Let them go. Enjoy our team playing other teams that we can and should compete with. This goes as much for SMU and UH as it does for us or La Tech. The power teams ain't letting anyone else in unless they can provide value. And if you could do that, it would've already happened. Should UH be in the Big 12 now? Yeah, probably they should. But the networks know that they add absolutely nothing to their bottom line in that footprint, so they paid the other 10 teams MORE to not add UH and some other Upper G5 team into the conference. Think about that for a second. UCF ain't getting into the ACC or SEC. UH ain't getting into the Big XII or SEC. Boise can't even get a sniff from the Pac-12, much less from the Big XII.

It is what it is...

MrAlien · May 28, 2020

1 hour ago, Blue Horse said:

I would disagree with you on this point. People get asked what they love about the tournament and say "the upsets." Do you know what the P5 schools hate about the tournament? The upsets. It exposes the flaws in their superiority argument. If I were the P5, I'd add the Big East for basketball and have a smaller tournament. Big names but with fewer schools to split the money. Yeah, it's a little more predictable, but if I'm the P5, that's okay by me.

exactly the "people" tune in and watch the games, because there is usually an upset in those early rounds... if not for that, then few people would actually watch, thats what makes it the best post season in sports.

GrandGreen · May 28, 2020

30 minutes ago, untjim1995 said:

Exactly. I wouldn't be surprised to see them add in the WCC, too, just because Gonzaga, St.Mary's, and BYU are in it.

And I believe BYU will also be included in the Power breakaway, as well. They are just a smaller Notre Dame.

It will be ok, folks, when this happens. You'll still be able to see our teams play the same teams they always play, save for the body bag game(s). Give our players, coaches, and fans a chance to actually be a national champion. This is the only level of football that has absolutely no chance of having a national champion--hell, they can't even contend for one in a playoff. See UCF, Boise State, UH, etc...

The media doesn't care about anyone at this level anyway--a poll that was done about 10 years ago showed that the vast majority of sports journalists that covered college athletics spent 95% of their time on Power programs. They go where the eyeballs and the money lies--and its with the golden geese I mentioned above, as well as their less golden cousins that are in these conferences with them.

Let them go. Enjoy our team playing other teams that we can and should compete with. This goes as much for SMU and UH as it does for us or La Tech. The power teams ain't letting anyone else in unless they can provide value. And if you could do that, it would've already happened. Should UH be in the Big 12 now? Yeah, probably they should. But the networks know that they add absolutely nothing to their bottom line in that footprint, so they paid the other 10 teams MORE to not add UH and some other Upper G5 team into the conference. Think about that for a second. UCF ain't getting into the ACC or SEC. UH ain't getting into the Big XII or SEC. Boise can't even get a sniff from the Pac-12, much less from the Big XII.

It is what it is...

Yes, IAA was a great experience for the program.

While, I agree with most of your points. I think moving down as a program would be a disaster for NT.

Now there is at a theoritical chance that NT could be a top 25 program in football. I would also hate to tell the soccer, softball, basketball, etc. teams that they are now second division.

You may think the level of coverage and support of NT could not be lower, but you are very wrong.

This would also directly lead to the reduction in scholarships opposed to those schools in the first division.

You will argue that this would not be the same as !aa. but it would be.

That great new division championship would be exactly as it is today for D2 teams. Do you know who the D2 football champion was last year, most people don't.

untjim1995 · May 28, 2020

23 minutes ago, GrandGreen said:

Yes, IAA was a great experience for the program.

While, I agree with most of your points. I think moving down as a program would be a disaster for NT.

Now there is at a theoritical chance that NT could be a top 25 program in football. I would also hate to tell the soccer, softball, basketball, etc. teams that they are now second division.

You may think the level of coverage and support of NT could not be lower, but you are very wrong.

This would also directly lead to the reduction in scholarships opposed to those schools in the first division.

You will argue that this would not be the same as !aa. but it would be.

That great new division championship would be exactly as it is today for D2 teams. Do you know who the D2 football champion was last year, most people don't.

At least there is a champion that most people need to look up...I'd take that chance, while playing the other 64 G5 teams, who we currently play 10 games a year against. It beats the hell out of winning CUSA and getting to play a MAC or SBC team in a bowl with about 30% of the stadium filled, hoping to get a few votes for the final rankings.

Last year, FAU won CUSA. And just like in 2017, their reward was a bowl game at home against a MAC/AAC team. In 2018, UAB won CUSA and got to play in Boca Raton against Northern Illinois, who was 8-5. Absolutely nobody cared outside of those fanbases.

Now, imagine those teams playing in a playoff system. FAU, UAB, SMU, NIU, any other teams that would've made the playoffs--I guarantee that gets more coverage from the media than North Dakota State, James Madison, Youngstown State, or any other FCS teams.

That you cannot see that is just amazing to me...