Has the Corona Virus infected anyone you know?

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

1 hour ago, UNTLifer said:

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/06/05/some-coronavirus-tests-in-doubt-in-texas-after-lab-turns-up-abnormal-number-of-positives/

"Over 1 million COVID-19 tests have been run in Texas, according to state data. More than 71,000 people have tested positive."

 

You are the king of old articles. 

I don't know why you selected one sentence from the article that didn't really add anything to the context of the story.

This is more appropriate:

"The state is no longer using a laboratory that has tested 14,000 Texans for the coronavirus, after it turned up an abnormal number of positive results during state-ordered testing at nursing homes and in community surveillance."

Out of the million tests in Texas, 14,000 went through this lab and since the lab was under question, they notified the people to ignore or re-test. Wow! Shattering news. 

False positives are incredibly low and bad actor labs will happen. 

More telling are the FALSE negatives:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200610094112.htm

"Researchers found that testing people for SARS-CoV-2 -- the virus that causes COVID-19 -- too early in the course of infection is likely to result in a false negative test, even though they may eventually test positive for the virus......PCR-based tests for SARS-CoV-2 have a false negative rate of at least 20%, depending on the time of testing."

Now that *is* news because of people that may actually be walking around with a false sense of safety. If 20% of tests are returning a false negative? That is something. 

We've known from the beginning that the tests have a false negative and MD's are re-running tests when the symptoms match COVID but the test came back negative. 

Edited July 1, 2020 by SteaminWillieBeamin

[UNTLifer]

Didn't realize June 5, 2020 qualified as old.  Thanks for letting my know Dr. Fauci, I mean Dr. SWB.

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

1 hour ago, UNTLifer said:

Didn't realize June 5, 2020 qualified as old.  Thanks for letting my know Dr. Fauci, I mean Dr. SWB.

When posting a quote and link with no other context - it tends implies it is breaking or new. Lifer, MD. 

"...No human studies were done, nor were the vaccine studies taken further because the virus disappeared."

https://news.yahoo.com/mysterious-disappearance-first-sars-virus-122053674.html

 

[El Paso Eagle]

15 minutes ago, SteaminWillieBeamin said:

When posting a quote and link with no other context - it tends implies it is breaking or new. Lifer, MD. 

"...No human studies were done, nor were the vaccine studies taken further because the virus disappeared."

https://news.yahoo.com/mysterious-disappearance-first-sars-virus-122053674.html

 

Kind of tells you in the link when it was published

 

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

1 hour ago, El Paso Eagle said:

Kind of tells you in the link when it was published

I am tech savvy enough to parse a URI and parameters. I get it. Fully. The AGE of the article is not the real concern. The quote selected from the article and the implication that is matters is the real topic here. 

Guess I'll spell out what I did there.

I posted an article that was only tangentially related to the topic and pulled a random quote that definitely had no bearing... and I gave no explanation as to why I shared a link. It makes no sense. It implies that it is newsworthy. When in fact, it is not, as I stated in my reply. 

 

Edited July 1, 2020 by SteaminWillieBeamin

[Censored by Laurie]

has anyone checked on @THOR's well-being? 

[UNTLifer]

5 hours ago, SteaminWillieBeamin said:

I am tech savvy enough to parse a URI and parameters. I get it. Fully. The AGE of the article is not the real concern. The quote selected from the article and the implication that is matters is the real topic here. 

Guess I'll spell out what I did there.

I posted an article that was only tangentially related to the topic and pulled a random quote that definitely had no bearing... and I gave no explanation as to why I shared a link. It makes no sense. It implies that it is newsworthy. When in fact, it is not, as I stated in my reply. 

 

Sorry it didn't meet your qualifications as to what matters and what doesn't.  It mattered to the folks out here in Scurry County, but I will try to adhere to your guidelines in the future.  

[97and03]

6 hours ago, Censored by Laurie said:

has anyone checked on @THOR's well-being? 

[THOR]

i'm perfectly fine...nothing has changed in my life except now i have to wear a mask while in denton.  i just quit posting on these threads because it became a big ole circle of saying the same things and the responses being the same, so i found it pointless

[Censored by Laurie]

20 minutes ago, THOR said:

i'm perfectly fine...nothing has changed in my life except now i have to wear a mask while in denton.  i just quit posting on these threads because it became a big ole circle of saying the same things and the responses being the same, so i found it pointless

glad you're well!! and wearing a mask!!

[CMJ]

All kidding aside, has anyone heard from Rick lately?  He hasn't posted in a a couple of weeks.

[ColoradoEagle]

1 hour ago, CMJ said:

All kidding aside, has anyone heard from Rick lately?  He hasn't posted in a a couple of weeks.

Just don't say his name 3 times in a row...

[THOR]

2 hours ago, Censored by Laurie said:

glad you're well!! and wearing a mask!!

i only wear it because it's a new rule in the city of denton, i don't wear one any other place i go

 

and thanks for the well wishes

[97and03]

4 hours ago, CMJ said:

All kidding aside, has anyone heard from Rick lately?  He hasn't posted in a a couple of weeks.

Really want to post something sarcastic but going to try to avoid the bad karma and just hope all is well. 

[97and03]

On 7/1/2020 at 8:56 PM, CMJ said:

Two months ago South Dakota was one of the hottest spots in the country for infections, but that never translated into deaths.  I'm not talking about overall deaths because obviously not many people live in the Dakotas, but even on a per capita basis, though things were dicey there with not enough beds, it really didn't tip over into overwhelming fatalities.  I watched it on a daily basis.  They did have a rise, but not nearly as much as the numbers indicated there would be.  I'm not sure how to explain that, but it didn't happen.  I know we're getting better at treating the disease all the time, so that is probably a large part of it.

 

Given the sheer volume of the infections out there now, we're no doubt soon to have a rise in deaths.  I examine the numbers every day and I do think it is close to bottoming out (as I stated several posts ago) and we're soon to rise again.  I saw some expert break down a couple of months ago that the average sick person went about 20 days from first exposure of the virus to dying (and generally about 14 days from first getting sick), so that would place the death figures near the beginning of the curve in upward infections which began in mid June.  I keep waiting for the death rise to start, and it soon will surely, but every day of delay makes me hopeful we're not gonna have a total tsunami.

 

[Coffee and TV]

Herman Cain June 20th

 

 

Herman Cain July 2nd

 

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

Also bad news that we are way undercounting the deaths. Once all told - the numbers will put all of this into the right focus. 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980?fbclid=IwAR22GzqY6-DpekPn30SZApARe5qDPylJCALtL68hNpujnZMI72e3uvkaPAk
 

This undercount is likely one of the reasons @CMJ hasn't seen the spike he was expecting. 

Edited July 2, 2020 by SteaminWillieBeamin

[97and03]

In the country where I live, the hospitals are now so full with “pneumonia” patients that they’ve turned away sick people and told them to go home and treat themselves. People who have symptoms can’t get tests. There are ambulance shortages. 30 percent of cases are medical professionals. There are a handful of people starting to die from other diseases because they were turned away from the specialized hospital that treats their problem because it was turned into a Covid or pneumonia ward. 

[CMJ]

1 hour ago, 97and03 said:

 

They actually still have been slightly declining if you look at the worldometers chart.  Not sure why this one is different, but the seven day moving average the last week is as follows.

 

7/1 - 560

6/30 - 581

6/29 - 595

6/28 - 596

6/27 - 594

6/26 - 604

6/25 - 614

 

Since this is a seven day moving average the number to watch on if the numbers will keep declining or go back up is June 25th, because that will be the number that is replaced in the new rolling average today.  The actual number that day was 653, so if there are less than that many deaths today, the seven day average will go down today...if it is higher than that, it'll nose up.  Worldometers currently shows 377 deaths today, so it'll probably be close to 653 one way or the other.

[CMJ]

1 hour ago, SteaminWillieBeamin said:

Also bad news that we are way undercounting the deaths. Once all told - the numbers will put all of this into the right focus. 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980?fbclid=IwAR22GzqY6-DpekPn30SZApARe5qDPylJCALtL68hNpujnZMI72e3uvkaPAk
 

This undercount is likely one of the reasons @CMJ hasn't seen the spike he was expecting. 

This under count would be spread across the entire four month period.  That means it probably wouldn't be that much of a difference in the curve.  All of the numbers would be higher...the ones in March, April, and May as well.

 

That means the same downward trajectory would be the same now too.  Even if deaths were 28% higher than reported in June (likely), they still would have also been 28% higher previously...which means the death rate is still decreasing.

Edited July 2, 2020 by CMJ

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

1 hour ago, CMJ said:

This under count would be spread across the entire four month period.  That means it probably wouldn't be that much of a difference in the curve.  All of the numbers would be higher...the ones in March, April, and May as well.

 

That means the same downward trajectory would be the same now too.  Even if deaths were 28% higher than reported in June (likely), they still would have also been 28% higher previously...which means the death rate is still decreasing.

You can't assume that, since they didn't cover June and July excess deaths. If they were undercounting up to May, that undercounting would still be missing the potentially increasing excess deaths. Since you don't know the excess deaths for those months - we will never know. Well, not for a few months. There has been pressure to not report as Covid in certain states/counties as it went on longer. 

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

2 hours ago, 97and03 said:

In the country where I live, the hospitals are now so full with “pneumonia” patients that they’ve turned away sick people and told them to go home and treat themselves. People who have symptoms can’t get tests. There are ambulance shortages. 30 percent of cases are medical professionals. There are a handful of people starting to die from other diseases because they were turned away from the specialized hospital that treats their problem because it was turned into a Covid or pneumonia ward. 

Those deaths will end up being counted as Covid death in normal administrations. Just like PR hurricane deaths climbed after the storm when they counted the people who died because the hospitals had no power. They didn't die directly from a swell of wind and rain. 

[CMJ]

6 minutes ago, SteaminWillieBeamin said:

You can't assume that, since they didn't cover June and July excess deaths. If they were undercounting up to May, that undercounting would still be missing the potentially increasing excess deaths. Since you don't know the excess deaths for those months - we will never know. Well, not for a few months. There has been pressure to not report as Covid in certain states/counties as it went on longer. 

Okay, then under your scenario would mean that earlier deaths would be significantly higher...which would mean the drop off would be that much greater now if excess deaths are being reported more accurately now vs then.

 

Most excess deaths are probably coronavirus deaths.  However, I've also read for things like heart attacks, those numbers have also been greater since the pandemic started (because people aren't seeking treatment).  So some of the excess deaths are also more than likely attributable to things like that too.  Which would make the Covid crisis a secondary reason of sorts, but not exactly fair to label as a coronavirus death either.

Edited July 2, 2020 by CMJ

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

1 minute ago, CMJ said:

Okay, then under your scenario would mean that earlier deaths would be significantly higher...which would mean the drop off would be that much greater now if excess deaths are being reported more accurately now vs then.

My assumption until proven otherwise is that excess deaths are not being accounted for at a greater level NOW than previous months. Only because the administration really wanted to open up and get back to normal - and you see it in counties like Collin. They are not reporting themselves anymore, it goes through the state of Texas. Whereas Dallas and Harris counties are doing their own reporting. 

If you watched the numbers to when Collin switched to doing it through Texas instead of their own reporting - their numbers dropped immediately. 

I am not rooting for deaths here - I am just saying that what @97and03 is saying - that the death numbers are not telling the full story (yet). 

[Coffee and TV]

On 6/30/2020 at 7:47 PM, CMJ said:

Deaths in NY and NJ have been "light" for lack of a better word for awhile now.  They ceased really throwing off daily figures that out of whack weeks ago.  At the same time infections in the rest of the country picked up at least six weeks ago and still haven't really shown up in the death numbers in as high of numbers as I anticipated

"bUt tHe dEaTh rAtE IS dEclinIng" i attempt to scream before the ICU nurse reattaches my ventilator.