Has the Corona Virus infected anyone you know?

[El Paso Eagle]

15 minutes ago, NT93 said:

I can almost guarantee that the person who did it is in favor of taking down statues, changing team mascots, etc because they don’t want people to feel bad.

Irony 

Agree, the wonderful world of I like to be a smart ass when no one knows who I am. 

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

9 minutes ago, NT93 said:

I can almost guarantee that the person who did it is in favor of taking down statues, changing team mascots, etc because they don’t want people to feel bad.

Irony 

Quite a rush to judgement. I tended to guess it was someone that doubts covid is serious at all, maybe just a bad cold that leads to re-categorized deaths and sees no problem with racist statues. 

I mean, for sure every one of my posts has a handful of eye rolls. I've never threatened anyone over it though. That's personal liberty snowflake irony!

But for sure, best wishes on the family covid. I hope the symptoms are minor, even for the feeble ladies. Though statistically speaking, it hits men harder. But best wishes to them all.i know us liberals take covid with utmost seriousness. 

My nanny's daughter just got a positive result. Let the eye rolls begin.

[El Paso Eagle]

As I have said/asked before - would be nice if the board let you see the names for the different "votes". Guess Harry and team are worried it would cost them clicks

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

1 minute ago, El Paso Eagle said:

Agree, the wonderful world of I like to be a smart ass when no one knows who I am. 

I just eyerolled this. Just to be above board.

[El Paso Eagle]

3 minutes ago, SteaminWillieBeamin said:

Quite a rush to judgement. I tended to guess it was someone that doubts covid is serious at all, maybe just a bad cold that leads to re-categorized deaths and sees no problem with racist statues. 

I mean, for sure every one of my posts has a handful of eye rolls. I've never threatened anyone over it though. That's personal liberty snowflake irony!

But for sure, best wishes on the family covid. I hope the symptoms are minor, even for the feeble ladies. Though statistically speaking, it hits men harder. But best wishes to them all.i know us liberals take covid with utmost seriousness. 

My nanny's daughter just got a positive result. Let the eye rolls begin.

Thank you.

[97and03]

Yes speedy recovery for all. 

[DeepGreen]

This Is what I don’t get.  This COVID-19 thing has not gone away, even with the earlier closures and reopening of bars.  Where bodies congregate, flesh to flesh, even in Austin.  I know that’s a shock to some of you.  Ha!
 

My daughter is a RN at the main St David’s in Austin.  Labor and delivery nurse, who is in contact with woman in labor on a daily basis.  She even works in the OR in case of C-sections.

So that she could have dinner with my wife and another daughter who is driving down to have dinner in Austin tonight, my RN daughter asked for a Covid-19 test this past week.  She was turned down.  The hospital is not even testing their own employees for Covid 19!  Maybe I’m just a thick headed Sicilian that just can’t understand the hospitals reasoning.  Bottom line????
 

Consequently, just as a precaution my RN daughter won’t be dinIng with us tonight.

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

13 minutes ago, DeepGreen said:

This Is what I don’t get.  This COVID-19 thing has not gone away, even with the earlier closures and reopening of bars.  Where bodies congregate, flesh to flesh, even in Austin.  I know that’s a shock to some of you.  Ha!
 

My daughter is a RN at the main St David’s in Austin.  Labor and delivery nurse, who is in contact with woman in labor on a daily basis.  She even works in the OR in case of C-sections.

So that she could have dinner with my wife and another daughter who is driving down to have dinner in Austin tonight, my RN daughter asked for a Covid-19 test this past week.  She was turned down.  The hospital is not even testing their own employees for Covid 19!  Maybe I’m just a thick headed Sicilian that just can’t understand the hospitals reasoning.  Bottom line????
 

Consequently, just as a precaution my RN daughter won’t be dinIng with us tonight.

It's resources. Labs still have a certain capacity they can process each day. She can still do they cvs drive up test and get it back in 4 days.

[Got5onIt]

On 6/25/2020 at 6:21 PM, NT93 said:

I can almost guarantee that the person who did it is in favor of taking down statues, changing team mascots, etc because they don’t want people to feel bad.

Irony 

I was thinking an anti-masker, 5g conspiracy theorist, and covid denier posted the roll eyes?

Taking down statues and changing team mascots due to racism is being done to stop “making people feel bad” ? Hmmm....

[Coffee and TV]

I'm sure this is fine

 

[CMJ]

The seven day moving average declined every day from June 3rd through the 22nd.  On the 23rd it notched up slightly, stayed exactly the same the next, decreased slightly for a few more, went up slightly on Sunday, and then marginally down yesterday.  Overall the rate of decline Monday to Monday was about 5.5% - which is the lowest it's been in awhile.  Add the three days of arrest in falling numbers (two slight upticks and one steady day). After a week of fractional decline it seems, to me, that the death figures are close to bottoming out.  

Edited June 30, 2020 by CMJ

[97and03]

 

To where are you referring?

4 hours ago, CMJ said:

The seven day moving average declined every day from June 3rd through the 22nd.  On the 23rd it notched up slightly, stayed exactly the same the next, decreased slightly for a few more, went up slightly on Sunday, and then marginally down yesterday.  Overall the rate of decline Monday to Monday was about 5.5% - which is the lowest it's been in awhile.  Add the three days of arrest in falling numbers (two slight upticks and one steady day). After a week of fractional decline it seems, to me, that the death figures are close to bottoming out.  

 

Edited June 30, 2020 by 97and03

[CMJ]

2 hours ago, 97and03 said:

 

To where are you referring?

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

Scroll down to daily new deaths in the United States and click on the Seven day moving average box.  When have I not discussed the death figures?  Again, I am concerned about infections, but not AS concerned.  I was expecting the death figures to start going up again about two weeks ago and they still haven't really.

I even mentioned in the post you quoted I was referring to death figures.

Edited June 30, 2020 by CMJ

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

1 hour ago, CMJ said:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

Scroll down to daily new deaths in the United States and click on the Seven day moving average box.  When have I not discussed the death figures?  Again, I am concerned about infections, but not AS concerned.  I was expecting the death figures to start going up again about two weeks ago and they still haven't really.

I even mentioned in the post you quoted I was referring to death figures.

Deaths go up when hospitals get maxed. Two weeks ago the hospitals were still at low ICU numbers. 

With that said - today Dallas clocked in at 20 deaths. 

[CMJ]

28 minutes ago, SteaminWillieBeamin said:

Deaths go up when hospitals get maxed. Two weeks ago the hospitals were still at low ICU numbers. 

With that said - today Dallas clocked in at 20 deaths. 

I know deaths tend to follow infections, but infections had been stable for awhile and infections were still going down nationwide instead of remaining stable.  Actually deaths started to decrease before infection numbers did!  Then going a bit after the infection numbers stayed in a steady plateau from May 19th through to June 16th the range of daily numbers was in a relatively narrow window.  The infection numbers overall haven't really looked like a "curve" -- but the death figures have more or less had a curve like appearance. 

 

Also, I suspected infections to rise at least a month ago (which means deaths would have already started to kick in by now one would imagine).  Several states started to reopen all the way back in April.  Even California, which was pretty cautious (and where I live) has been mostly open for over a month now.

Edited June 30, 2020 by CMJ

[jtm0097]

My wife called me on the 18th freaking out because a coworker tested positive with the virus. The coworker returned from vacation on the 17th with symptoms, and tested positive the next day. I immediately left the office on the 18th and was ordered by work to stay at home for two weeks. I went and got a test on the 24th. My Dr called me yesterday to let me know that I tested positive. My wife's test was botched but they assume she has it too.

Symptoms- A little bit of a stuffy nose, and a little bit of fatigue. I am an avid runner, and I was able to run 4 miles in the summer heat this weekend. However, after the run my energy was zapped. I do not have a fever or cough. I'm in shock that I have it.

I take a multivitamin and zinc every day. I really think this is helping fight the virus. I'm trying to stay active by working out at home.

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

@CMJ The flat deaths are a result of how bad NY/NJ was and how they have recovered. I don't think your assumptions of how it is going is valid because of that view.

When you look at the regional statistics - like Texas - the deaths and positives have doubled over the past two weeks. But you are correct in that there is no curve - the deaths are pretty linear. 

Federal tests are taking 8 days to return. Houston is running out of tests by noon. These things impact positive ID on deaths too. 

Edited July 1, 2020 by SteaminWillieBeamin

[CMJ]

26 minutes ago, SteaminWillieBeamin said:

@CMJ The flat deaths are a result of how bad NY/NJ was and how they have recovered. I don't think your assumptions of how it is going is valid because of that view.

When you look at the regional statistics - like Texas - the deaths and positives have doubled over the past two weeks. But you are correct in that there is no curve - the deaths are pretty linear. 

Federal tests are taking 8 days to return. Houston is running out of tests by noon. These things impact positive ID on deaths too. 

The deaths weren't flat...the infections were flat.  Deaths have generally been decreasing since late April until about a week ago.  But even now they're only flat and not really going up.  The 7 day rolling average is probably going to drop slightly again today.

Edited July 1, 2020 by CMJ

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

Just now, CMJ said:

The deaths weren't flat...the infections were flat.  Deaths have generally been decreasing since late April.

"Generally" where? In Texas... no. In California... no.

 

[CMJ]

Nationwide.  Yes, New Jersey (the state with the most deaths per capita), New York, Connecticut, etc were hit hard early.  But even now months later there are still only 14 states (counting DC) that have over 300 deaths per million residents.  

 

April 21st the seven day rolling average death count peaked at 2255.  Yesterday that number was 595.

 

6/30 - 581

6/23 - 628

6/16 - 723

6/9 - 850

6/2 - 1080

5/26 - 1040

5/19  - 1429

5/12 - 1730

5/5 - 1902

4/28 - 2003

 

I'm concerned about an upsurge in the death rate.  In fact, I have been anticipating one for weeks.  I remain surprised it hasn't happened yet.

Edited July 1, 2020 by CMJ

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

4 minutes ago, CMJ said:

I'm concerned about an upsurge in the death rate.  In fact, I have been anticipating one for weeks.  I remain surprised it hasn't happened yet.

My entire point is that you can't look at nationwide numbers. Look at state numbers. Deaths are rising - they are no flat or down. NY/NJ is throwing nationwide stats off. It allows people to ignore what is going on in their locality. 
 

The deaths per million is baffling. Why Texas would be so low versus other states is a mystery. I know that NYC went back and counted some excess deaths towards covid - you will never see Texas do that. 

Edited July 1, 2020 by SteaminWillieBeamin

[CMJ]

Deaths in NY and NJ have been "light" for lack of a better word for awhile now.  They ceased really throwing off daily figures that out of whack weeks ago.  At the same time infections in the rest of the country picked up at least six weeks ago and still haven't really shown up in the death numbers in as high of numbers as I anticipated.

 

I am by no means saying this isn't awful.  I'm just saying I expected it to be way worse in say...late April.  Even though I never said it here (because people seemed to think I'd lost it predicting over 100K), I figured we'd be fast approaching 200K by now.  At the very least over 150K.  So, yes - from that standpoint it is not as bad as I thought.

Edited July 1, 2020 by CMJ

[97and03]

National death rates would be more informative if we had national policies and if population density was relatively uniform across states. It isn’t. 
Even within the large states it is difficult. For example in Texas each county has a different policy.  State trends are useful but in the case of Houston, DFW, Miami, etc, looking at them individually is probably more useful for understanding trends. Those areas are as big as many countries in terms of population. And they are also were the virus is most likely to thrive. 
Death rates are important to watch but not nearly as important as infections and hospitalization. Death rates only tell you what has happened and not what is coming. Once a person is dead they are out of the loop to put it frankly. 
Increased infections will lead to more hospitalizations. Hospitalization is the most worrisome indicator for many reasons. 1) there is some predictive value that death rates will rise; 2) hospitalization is a sign of the number of severe infections, which often lead to longer term negative health impacts such as decreased lung capacity or kidney problems which require medical care (and are expensive and keep people out of work); 3) inform us whether routine or elective medical needs can be carried out. Many people died in China and Italy due to a lack of availability hospitals and doctors. Heart attack victims that may have survived with proper treatment died in their apartments. 
 

So yes death rates are morbidly fascinating but not entirely useful while in the middle of a pandemic. Plus the lag in statistics from infections to hospitalization to death is too long to help us understand how fast this is spreading. 

Focusing on the other indicators will help keep the death rate from going up. 

[CMJ]

Two months ago South Dakota was one of the hottest spots in the country for infections, but that never translated into deaths.  I'm not talking about overall deaths because obviously not many people live in the Dakotas, but even on a per capita basis, though things were dicey there with not enough beds, it really didn't tip over into overwhelming fatalities.  I watched it on a daily basis.  They did have a rise, but not nearly as much as the numbers indicated there would be.  I'm not sure how to explain that, but it didn't happen.  I know we're getting better at treating the disease all the time, so that is probably a large part of it.

 

Given the sheer volume of the infections out there now, we're no doubt soon to have a rise in deaths.  I examine the numbers every day and I do think it is close to bottoming out (as I stated several posts ago) and we're soon to rise again.  I saw some expert break down a couple of months ago that the average sick person went about 20 days from first exposure of the virus to dying (and generally about 14 days from first getting sick), so that would place the death figures near the beginning of the curve in upward infections which began in mid June.  I keep waiting for the death rise to start, and it soon will surely, but every day of delay makes me hopeful we're not gonna have a total tsunami.

Edited July 1, 2020 by CMJ

[UNTLifer]

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/06/05/some-coronavirus-tests-in-doubt-in-texas-after-lab-turns-up-abnormal-number-of-positives/

"Over 1 million COVID-19 tests have been run in Texas, according to state data. More than 71,000 people have tested positive."