Has the Corona Virus infected anyone you know?

[greenminer]

6 minutes ago, THOR said:

honestly, i don't have a clue, but i think much more than what is going on now.  in denton county, there have been (updated today) 803 total cases, 389 are active, 392 have recovered, and 22 deaths....with a total population of almost 900k...so .089% of the county has had it/has it.....00244 of those ending in death...those aren't numbers that i believe we should shut the county down, especially when young/healthy people have almost nothing to worry about.

How are people going to respond these next two weeks? Will people proceed with caution, or will they adopt a "we won, this is over" mentality and disregard distancing measures?  We're about to find out.

A healthy segment of 20-60 year olds wondering about because they don't feel threatened is exactly what could stretch this out for over a year.  I know you know this, but I want to reiterate for others that asymptomatics still spread this virus.
 

[THOR]

1 minute ago, greenminer said:

How are people going to respond these next two weeks? Will people proceed with caution, or will they adopt a "we won, this is over" mentality and disregard distancing measures?  We're about to find out.

A healthy segment of 20-60 year olds wondering about because they don't feel threatened is exactly what could stretch this out for over a year.  I know you know this, but I want to reiterate for others that asymptomatics still spread this virus.
 

maybe this will stretch out for over a year or maybe we will see that covid really isn't as bad as it's made out to be.  yes, the virus can still spread, but that doesn't mean doom and gloom and it doesn't mean that we are in the clear either because the death toll is so low.  i really don't know what the right answer is.  

[FirefightnRick]

9 hours ago, THOR said:

maybe this will stretch out for over a year or maybe we will see that covid really isn't as bad as it's made out to be.  yes, the virus can still spread, but that doesn't mean doom and gloom and it doesn't mean that we are in the clear either because the death toll is so low.  i really don't know what the right answer is.  

 

The fear porn’ers want this to extend until November 10th.  It won’t of course.  So my prediction is when the the next coming season of flu starts back up in October you’ll start to hear talk of shutting in again.  It’ll be interesting to see how people respond when that happens.

 

Rick

Edited May 4, 2020 by FirefightnRick

[ColoradoEagle]

9 hours ago, THOR said:

honestly, i don't have a clue, but i think much more than what is going on now.  in denton county, there have been (updated today) 803 total cases, 389 are active, 392 have recovered, and 22 deaths....with a total population of almost 900k...so .089% of the county has had it/has it.....00244% of those ending in death...those aren't numbers that i believe we should shut the county down, especially when young/healthy people have almost nothing to worry about.

Those numbers are likely due to 1) shutting the county down in the first place, and 2) the fact that testing in Texas is really, really low.

We'll see what happens. The numbers in Texas were/are on the rise, but we're opening back up for business. That actually goes against Trump's recommendations for anyone keeping score at home.

I can't even pretend that I'm staying in as much as a couple weeks ago. Went with the gf to pick up food three times this weekend, but tried to limit contact, wear a mask, and use hand sanitizer when getting back into the car.

[FirefightnRick]

 

It is time to take seriously the link between Vitamin D deficiency and more serious Covid-19 symptoms

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/03/time-take-seriously-link-vitamin-d-deficiency-serious-covid/

 

 

Rick

[Coffee and TV]

11 hours ago, FirefightnRick said:

 

More time for Smash, Fortnite and Valorant of course.

 

Rick

Yeah my end game couldn't possibly be that I don't want my lungs to look like I got a nice helping of mustard gas. 

[FirefightnRick]

38 minutes ago, Coffee and TV said:

Yeah my end game couldn't possibly be that I don't want my lungs to look like I got a nice helping of mustard gas. 

They won’t cause your young and at an extremely low risk group.

FOLLOW THE SCIENCE!...lol

 

Edited May 4, 2020 by FirefightnRick

[CMJ]

https://www.businessinsider.com/non-elderly-americans-are-getting-severely-ill-with-covid-19-2020-4

[Quoner]

5 minutes ago, FirefightnRick said:

They won’t cause your young and at an extremely low risk group.

FOLLOW THE SCIENCE!...lol

 

Good advice - even almost a month ago.

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-and-covid-19-younger-adults-are-at-risk-too

Quote

 

For example, the CDC report shows that as of March 16, 2020, 508 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 in the U.S. Of these, 38% were between 20 and 54 years old. Half of those ending up in intensive care were younger than 65.

Officials in Europe are noting the same trend, with reports that half of serious cases in France and the Netherlands are in people under age 50.

 

 

53 minutes ago, FirefightnRick said:

 

It is time to take seriously the link between Vitamin D deficiency and more serious Covid-19 symptoms

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/03/time-take-seriously-link-vitamin-d-deficiency-serious-covid/

 

 

Rick

And, since Rick, loves his science, here's a look at the vitamin D conversation. Rick, can I borrow the log-in I am sure you have to read this full article? In the meantime, here's what scientists are saying about the same data: https://www.sciencealert.com/covid-deaths-are-being-linked-with-vitamin-d-deficiency-here-s-what-that-means

Quote

Researchers are gradually piecing together the vitamin's functions in the immune system as well, noting its relationship with autoimmune conditions and the discovery of receptors for the chemical on various immune cells.

Just how it might combat coronavirus infections – if at all – is sure to be a popular subject in future studies.

Meanwhile, as uncontroversial as the results might be, a single study ahead of peer review shouldn't be the basis for medical advice. Science just doesn't support making the leap between reading about healthy amounts of vitamin D in the blood and popping a supplement.

 

[keith]

Here's the problem with the various sites providing data/metrics, etc.  No one really knows.  People *think* this or that or *believe* this or that, but to suggest at this point in time anyone *knows* with certainty isn't being honest IMHO.

I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that "excess" death rates are attributable, at least in part, to COVID-19, just like we attribute routine excess death rates to the seasonal flu.  But no one knows the real number.  

Below are some statistics and charts from the CDC and National Vital Statistics System.  Data is delayed as it takes a while for it to come in and get updated in the system.  Assuming the weeks for 4/18 and before have stabilized somewhat and looking at the percent of excess deaths, we've been over 100% four weeks running.  

Looking at the first bar chart (United States) we can see the that we had above excess deaths back in 2018.  This is probably attributable to seasonal flu. We can see a pronounced spike in 2020.  It looks like we had a relatively mild flu season, so it seems logical to tag these excess deaths to COVID-19, but maybe there are some seasonal flu numbers in there as well, not sure.

In the third chart, we have Texas.  It has excess deaths (so far), but by eyeballing it, looks to be below 2018 (again, so far).  This could change as data catches up.

Now the shocking one, New York City.  Just the city, not the state or immediate surrounding counties.  It is wildly over the expected deaths rates.  These numbers are likely driving everything else (US numbers, media attention, national policy, etc.).  When people say the rest of the US is not New York City, this is what they are talking about.  Is NYC just a leading indicator for the rest of the country or is it truly a unique and singular scenario.

Is NYC under counting or over counting?  If it's under counting, we're in a world of hurt.  However, there has been enough local chatter to suggest that NYC may be over counting.  Not for any nefarious reasons, but simply as a consequence of dealing with the volume.  I can see a situation where it's, "look, if it looks like COVID-19 or you suspect it might be COVID-19, mark it as such and we'll clean this up later."  

There is also the argument that with everyone staying home, the expected deaths should already be well below the expected, so the excess deaths should be based on a lower expected number.  I think this could probably go both ways if people are not seeking medical attention that they normally would.

 

EDIT:  I mixed two trains of thought here.  The bar charts are total deaths from all cases.  I didn't mean to imply that these numbers were being overstated.  A death is a death.  That's obvious.  What we don't know is what percentage of the excess deaths are specifically due to COVID-19. 

 

Edited May 4, 2020 by keith

[Coffee and TV]

56 minutes ago, FirefightnRick said:

They won’t cause your young and at an extremely low risk group.

FOLLOW THE SCIENCE!...lol

 

Damn Rick, don't know how it's possible but you're once again completely wrong in this thread. 

I'm middle-aged and have been battling bronchitis for the last 6 weeks. I got a chest xray done in March that showed minor damage consistent with a normal respiratory infection, but I'm still suffering from shortness of breath and coughing despite having spent 99.9% of my time at home resting since lockdown. Mondays are one of my days off, but my department is back in the office today for no real reason other than to show some support for the governor I guess? My covid test came back negative at the end of march, but my doctor wrote a note to keep me home this week.

I have another appointment scheduled this afternoon to hopefully get working from home extended until the end of the month and that's only if my HR approves. I'm having to do all of this simply because my fortune 100 company can't bear with people being productive at their own homes and not sharing each other's germs. I love being in a position where I have to choose between risking permanent damage to my health or possibly losing my job all because my company wants to play tough guy against an invisible disease.

Italy's first confirmed case on Covid-19 was a marathon runner my age that spent 3 weeks in the ICU before finally recovering. NYC doctors have seen patients come in for xrays after car crashes and noticing permanent lung damage to people who were considered asymptomatic. Boris Johnson, the leader of the freakin UK was on his death bed a few weeks ago.

But hey, it's so much easier to just paint a broad brush and declare that anyone who doesn't want to sit in an office right now is just a lazy gamer.

 

Edited May 4, 2020 by Coffee and TV

[FirefightnRick]

12 minutes ago, Coffee and TV said:

Damn Rick, don't know how it's possible but you're once again completely wrong in this thread. 

I'm middle-aged and have been battling bronchitis for the last 6 weeks. I got a chest xray done in March that showed minor damage consistent with a normal respiratory infection, but I'm still suffering from shortness of breath and coughing despite having spent 99.9% of my time at home resting since lockdown. Mondays are one of my days off, but my department is back in the office today for no real reason other than to show some support for the governor I guess? My covid test came back negative at the end of march, but my doctor wrote a note to keep me home this week.

I have another appointment scheduled this afternoon to hopefully get working from home extended until the end of the month and that's only if my HR approves. I'm having to do all of this simply because my fortune 100 company can't bear with people being productive at their own homes and not sharing each other's germs. I love being in a position where I have to choose between risking permanent damage to my health or possibly losing my job all because my company wants to play tough guy against an invisible disease.

Italy's first confirmed case on Covid-19 was a marathon runner my age that spent 3 weeks in the ICU before finally recovering. NYC doctors have seen patients come in for xrays after car crashes and noticing permanent lung damage to people who were considered asymptomatic. Boris Johnson, the leader of the freakin UK was on his death bed a few weeks ago.

But hey, it's so much easier to just paint a broad brush and declare that anyone who doesn't want to sit in an office right now is just a lazy gamer.

 

How was I to know your personal situation, which is not like most?

 

Rick

[Coffee and TV]

12 hours ago, FirefightnRick said:

How was I to know your personal situation, which is not like most?

 

Rick

Of course you don't, because it's easier to just excuse everyone as a lazy gamer, or a doomer, or whatever term is the flavor of the week rather than have empathy for someone who is in a similar situation as mine. It's as if the longer one believes in their invincibility to the problem at hand the less they care about it: the same could be said in this country of gun violence or homelessness.

Edited May 5, 2020 by Coffee and TV

[FirefightnRick]

1 hour ago, Quoner said:

Good advice - even almost a month ago.

Wow...508 whole people got sick?

 

I think I’m staying home today. 

[FirefightnRick]

5 minutes ago, Coffee and TV said:

Of course you don't, because it's easier to just excuse everyone as a lazy gamer, or a doomer, or whatever term is the flavor of the week rather than have empathy for someone who is in a similar situation as mine. It's as if the longer one believes in their invincibility to the problem at hand the more they care less about it: the same could be said in this country of gun violence or homelessness.

Hey...take it as a compliment..somewhat.  Someone else thought you were younger than you are...LOL!

 

Rick

[FirefightnRick]

1 hour ago, keith said:

Here's the problem with the various sites providing data/metrics, etc.  No one really knows.  People *think* this or that or *believe* this or that, but to suggest at this point in time anyone *knows* with certainty isn't being honest IMHO.

I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that "excess" death rates are attributable, at least in part, to COVID-19, just like we attribute routine excess death rates to the seasonal flu.  But no one knows the real number.  

Below are some statistics and charts from the CDC and National Vital Statistics System.  Data is delayed as it takes a while for it to come in and get updated in the system.  Assuming the weeks for 4/18 and before have stabilized somewhat and looking at the percent of excess deaths, we've been over 100% four weeks running.  

Looking at the first bar chart (United States) we can see the that we had above excess deaths back in 2018.  This is probably attributable to seasonal flu. We can see a pronounced spike in 2020.  It looks like we had a relatively mild flu season, so it seems logical to tag these excess deaths to COVID-19, but maybe there are some seasonal flu numbers in there as well, not sure.

In the third chart, we have Texas.  It has excess deaths (so far), but by eyeballing it, looks to be below 2018 (again, so far).  This could change as data catches up.

Now the shocking one, New York City.  Just the city, not the state or immediate surrounding counties.  It is wildly over the expected deaths rates.  These numbers are likely driving everything else (US numbers, media attention, national policy, etc.).  When people say the rest of the US is not New York City, this is what they are talking about.  Is NYC just a leading indicator for the rest of the country or is it truly a unique and singular scenario.

Is NYC under counting or over counting?  If it's under counting, we're in a world of hurt.  However, there has been enough local chatter to suggest that NYC may be over counting.  Not for any nefarious reasons, but simply as a consequence of dealing with the volume.  I can see a situation where it's, "look, if it looks like COVID-19 or you suspect it might be COVID-19, mark it as such and we'll clean this up later."  

There is also the argument that with everyone staying home, the expected deaths should already be well below the expected, so the excess deaths should be based on a lower expected number.  I think this could probably go both ways if people are not seeking medical attention that they normally would.

 

EDIT:  I mixed two trains of thought here.  The bar charts are total deaths from all cases.  I didn't mean to imply that these numbers were being overstated.  A death is a death.  That's obvious.  What we don't know is what percentage of the excess deaths are specifically due to COVID-19. 

 

 

Thank you.

 

Rick

[UNTLifer]

Remember when hydroxychloroquine was touted, then it was said to be bad?  I know why the media jumped on every side effect this drug has listed although it has been safely prescribed for decades.

https://www.fox7austin.com/news/fox-26-gets-unprecedented-access-to-texas-1st-nursing-home-to-treat-covid-19-with-hydroxychloroquine

[Quoner]

5 hours ago, FirefightnRick said:

Wow...508 whole people got sick?

 

I think I’m staying home today. 

It is a sickeningly small sample size for an event at that point we had nearly 3 months to prepare for. Lack of testing is a big part of why there is still so much we don't know.

[FirefightnRick]

4 hours ago, Quoner said:

It is a sickeningly small sample size for an event at that point we had nearly 3 months to prepare for. Lack of testing is a big part of why there is still so much we don't know.

I’m not sure testing is gonna help us or not?  

Even if we could test(swab for + - Cov19) 10,000 people a day in just Tarrant and Dallas counties alone that would be over 14 months.  By then there will probably be a mutation of it plus no telling what else?  Then the testing will need to start over.

And the testing sites are slow right now from a lack of people  with symptoms needed to qualify.  

So do you wait until people come in for their yearly checkups?  Do you make it mandatory?  If so how, go door to door?

Do a third of the population even get a flu shot each year?

I don’t see it ever happening.

 

Rick 

Edited May 5, 2020 by FirefightnRick

[greenminer]

this is a relatively deep (long) thread.  I couldn't figure out a way to link it so that every tweet appears here.  Sorry.

[FirefightnRick]

ABC News: Man arrested 3 times in 1 day under CA's coronavirus-based zero-bail policy

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/US/man-arrested-times-day-cas-coronavirus-based-bail/story?id=70481605&__twitter_impression=true

Edited May 5, 2020 by FirefightnRick

[Cooke County Kid]

It would be nice if we had a leader in the White House that could actually lead and lead us out of this mess using science and public health as the guide instead of trafficking in conspiracies, hawking unproven medical treatments and touting the drinking of toxic chemicals as a cure.  This virus is devastating our economy but who wants to sacrifice someone for the sake of a dollar.  Do we have any volunteers, how about Lt Gov. Patrick, after all it is only death as a possible outcome.  Let's all think about what we are doing and for a change how it might impact us all and not just yourself.  I don't like the stay at home but I do not want this crap.  We can always make more money but you can't bring your mom or dad back from the dead.  It will get worse before it gets better we just have to make the most out of a bad situation.  This too shall pass, getting there is the "fun" part.

[Coffee and TV]

49 minutes ago, Cooke County Kid said:

It would be nice if we had a leader in the White House that could actually lead and lead us out of this mess using science and public health as the guide instead of trafficking in conspiracies, hawking unproven medical treatments and touting the drinking of toxic chemicals as a cure.  This virus is devastating our economy but who wants to sacrifice someone for the sake of a dollar.  Do we have any volunteers, how about Lt Gov. Patrick, after all it is only death as a possible outcome.  Let's all think about what we are doing and for a change how it might impact us all and not just yourself.  I don't like the stay at home but I do not want this crap.  We can always make more money but you can't bring your mom or dad back from the dead.  It will get worse before it gets better we just have to make the most out of a bad situation.  This too shall pass, getting there is the "fun" part.

Nah, this administration is fine with letting 3,000 die every day in order to keep all their friend's pocketbooks full. I'm old enough to remember when 3,000 dead in a single day instigated a 20 year long war. 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-live-updates.html#click=https://t.co/R1CgmFbd7C

Edited May 5, 2020 by Coffee and TV

[Quoner]

How a non-political issue becomes almost solely political, volume 34343423848:

https://www.axios.com/axios-ipsos-coronavirus-week-8-5a1947d5-9850-4e58-9583-9b617e6fdc1b.html

(also, Axios is a great resource in general and have great daily newsletter for a range of markets/issues - as well as a great sports one that is well thought out and broadly sourced.)

[FirefightnRick]

20 hours ago, UNTLifer said:

Remember when hydroxychloroquine was touted, then it was said to be bad?  I know why the media jumped on every side effect this drug has listed although it has been safely prescribed for decades.

https://www.fox7austin.com/news/fox-26-gets-unprecedented-access-to-texas-1st-nursing-home-to-treat-covid-19-with-hydroxychloroquine

 

Dr. Armstrong was interviewed last night.

 

 

BTW...despite the numerous success stories, according to the clinical trial database Thelancet.com there’s over 300 clinical trials being performed worldwide concerning Hydroxychloroquin.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04363203?cond=COVID-19&fund=01&draw=2&rank=1

 

Rick