Has the Corona Virus infected anyone you know?

[Coffee and TV]

11 hours ago, UNTLifer said:

You did and that was my intended target, dude.

Even sadder. 

[UNTLifer]

10 hours ago, SteaminWillieBeamin said:

In Virginia... So.. like inflated positive results (including probable covid) and making the death percentage go down (since all death require positive test). I agree, they should fix that too report the accurate death rate.

"A lack of federal guidelines has created huge variation in how states are reporting their COVID-19 data and in what kind of data they provide to the public.

These gaps can be used for political advantage. In at least one state, Virginia, senior officials are blending the results of two different types of coronavirus test in order to report a more favorable result to the public."

 

Oddly, you didn't highlight this.  Have you been taking editing classes from the MSM?

"Local newspapers have reported in the past few days that their states have been blending the data together; the Richmond Times-Dispatch reported it in Virginia, prompting the state to start splitting its data last week, while the Texas Observer found it in Texas. Maine didn't start splitting the viral and antibody test data until Wednesday, while officials in Vermont told the Vermont Digger they didn't even know the blend was happening. And the problem goes all the way to the top, with the CDC confirming to The Atlantic that it has been incorrectly compiling test data.

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

It's the same result - regardless of state.

It potentially inflated positives, has no impact on hospitalizations and deaths  - that do require confirmed PCR. 

Therefore giving a rosier picture on death rates. When actually the death rate is probably more in line with other countries.

Get it?

[UNTLifer]

Yep, not what you stated, but, then again, I am not the expert on this like you.

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

2 hours ago, UNTLifer said:

Yep, not what you stated, but, then again, I am not the expert on this like you.

It is precisely what I stated. You are definitely proving yourself not the expert. That is not on me. 

First I said:
"...inflated positive results (including probable covid) and making the death percentage go down (since all death require positive test). I agree, they should fix that to report the accurate death rate."

Then I said:
".. inflated positives, has no impact on hospitalizations and deaths  - that do require confirmed PCR.  Therefore giving a rosier picture on death rates. .."

It is the same message. Same context. Same meaning. I have never claimed to be an expert, but I do read the links you shotgun here that don't seem to back up your reason for posting them. 

Edited July 17, 2020 by SteaminWillieBeamin

[keith]

On 6/25/2020 at 3:17 PM, 97and03 said:

Again. It. Isn’t. All. About. Deaths.

Stop helping  the deniers by even engaging in the deaths discussion. 
The numbers to watch is hospitalizations. 
 

That is more relevant to the overall public health concern. 

Well, yes and no.  Things have changed quite a bit since this initially started included the way we treat those infected.  You may or not agree with this, but NY, NJ and to a lesser extent CT screwed the pooch on this and it's affected everything that's followed since (people's perceptions, ability to compare "progress" or lack of over time with any confidence, etc.).  Aside from the disastrous decision to place Covid-positive patients in nursing homes where the disease spread like wildfire and killed scores of those that should have been protected the most, the message early on from all the health experts in this area was, if you have the symptoms, stay at home and do not come to the hospital or seek treatment until you get to the point where you are experiencing shortness of breath or breathing problems.  

The problem with that advice was it sealed the fate of many patients.  By that time it was too late.  They were probably destined for a ventilator and as we learned a significantly high number that went on ventilators never came off.  Basically, we lost the opportunity of catching it and treating it early in its progression and not at the end.  It was like telling a cancer patient to wait until it gets to stage 4 before you start treatment.  Personally, I view this as a complete an utter failure of public health "experts."  They were enamored with "flattening the curve" and protecting the health-care system, they just didn't tell us that doing so meant sacrificing a lot of people who could have probably been saved.

Fast-forward to current day and I believe the posture now is to treat the disease as soon and as early as possible - don't let it get to ventilator stage, especially for those with complicating factors.  This means putting more people in the hospital now than they would have back in the March-May timeframe. In this respect, hospitalizations is not to be avoided at all costs as it was early on.  We need to look at both admissions and discharges and how long people are in the hospital.  Are they there for a day or two and released or do they stay for weeks?  What was their condition when admitted, etc.?

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

@keith yes and no, too.

Yes. NY state did order that step down COVID patients should be sent to nursing homes for recovery. But no, it was not to keep the hospitals cleared, it was because the hospitals were at capacity and they needed emergency spill over. Maybe that is why people were advised to stay away in your area? The hospitals were already peaked?

The decision on who or when to hospitalize patients hasn't changed (at least here in Texas). If the patience needs hospitalization, then they need it. There was never an effort to keep people from going to the hospital until it was too late. A lot of deaths from COVID come from after they have 'recovered' and they crash again. It is a very strange sickness in that way. 
 

Edited July 21, 2020 by SteaminWillieBeamin

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

Definitely the decision to use nursing homes was crazy town.

[keith]

52 minutes ago, SteaminWillieBeamin said:

@keith yes and no, too.

Yes. NY state did order that step down COVID patients should be sent to nursing homes for recovery. But no, it was not to keep the hospitals cleared, it was because the hospitals were at capacity and they needed emergency spill over. Maybe that is why people were advised to stay away in your area? The hospitals were already peaked?

The decision on who or when to hospitalize patients hasn't changed (at least here in Texas). If the patience needs hospitalization, then they need it. There was never an effort to keep people from going to the hospital until it was too late. A lot of deaths from COVID come from after they have 'recovered' and they crash again. It is a very strange sickness in that way. 
 

I am not suggesting that people were denied admission to a hospital if they showed up or that doctors did not hospitalize patients that they deemed needed to be admitted.  There were constant local PSAs telling people to "stay at home, do not go to the hospital or emergency room unless or until you experience difficulty breathing."   People listened to this advice (in theory).  They didn't go to the hospital when they probably should have and only sought medical treatment after the disease had fully blossomed in their lungs.  At this point, very few survived or required a much longer hospital stay than they would have if they received early treatment.   

We all saw the videos of overwhelmed NYC hospitals, however, some of those videos were not even NYC hospitals!  While some hospitals may have been worse than others, the truth is NYC never ran out of beds, never ran our of ventilators, didn't need the Javits Center and didn't need the Comfort (I think the Comfort saw less than 20 patients). 

Edited July 21, 2020 by keith

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

Yeh - the decision to stop elective surgeries had a huge effect on the ability for NYC to have more beds "ready." The hidden aspect of medical care is the staff capacity doesn't increase when you add beds. NYC should have gotten the surge nurses weeks earlier when they were planning the bed capacity surge. The 'beds available' count is bogus IMO. You can't have a baby in one month by grouping nine women together. 

What we see outside of NYC is hospitals are more full (overall) than NYC because elective cases are still going on. There is not a large cushion for more beds ... also the vent statistics are somewhat flawed. They count the shared vents and all other rigged up systems as individual vents. They are definitely not as good. It inflates the vent capacity - but those are worst case vents. Which thankfully were not needed. But hospital capacity may become a real issue in Arizona and Florida. Parkland here in Dallas is not in great shape... they have asked for federal assistance. 

[THOR]

texas has almost the same amount of confirmed cases as new york, yet 1/10 of the deaths...is this due to cuomo's decision to send the old/sick back to retirement homes or something else?

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

Could be a factor of many things. 

1. There is talk the this strain of COVID has mutated and more contagious and less lethal. But overall deaths would remain nearly the same with this hypothesis. 
2. The population getting it right now has trended younger - they survive this easier. If those youth keep spreading though, it will hit the more at risk population eventually. 
3. Now that the rest of the country sees how it hit the nursing homes so hard - there is a huge effort to protect those spaces. 
4. Like Lifer, MD reported - some counties are not reporting only confirmed cases. So it skews the death rate down.
5. Tests are backed up and it will take a month or so to actually get the confirmed deaths from the counties. There is a two week gap in cases -> death and then up to a month to get the death -> report. That's why people watch the hospitalizations and cases and not the deaths - since it is a lagging indicator. 

 

[CMJ]

Texas doesn't almost have the same number of cases as New York - it has about 80% the number.

 

The death rate from NY was much higher though.  In Texas it's currently about 1.2% and rising -- in the Empire State it is more like 7.5 percent and falling.

[greenminer]

There are 3 different "death rates." Language is important when talking about so many variables, so let's clarify:

1. Mortality Rate (Deaths per X people, doesn't matter who is/not infected.  I believe this is typically used when talking about a virus's impact on a community once herd immunity is established.  It is critical to understand that this is a dumb rate to use when talking about a novel virus because it is still establishing itself and the number can be very fluid)
2. CFR = Case Fatality Rate (deaths per X number of diagnosed infections)
3. IFR = Infection Fatality Rate (deaths per X number of infections (infections = diagnosed cases + estimated number of undiagnosed cases)).

"Death Rate" is so ambiguous.  Don't use it.  Be as specific as you can.  I see the above used interchangeably, when they're not synonymous and possess very different/unique implications.

Edited July 22, 2020 by greenminer

[Coffee and TV]

15 hours ago, THOR said:

texas has almost the same amount of confirmed cases as new york, yet 1/10 of the deaths...is this due to cuomo's decision to send the old/sick back to retirement homes or something else?

It also helps that NY actually reported deaths and Texas covers them up by saying their death was pneumonia. 

[Censored by Laurie]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGDNaB6fZCU

 

mission accomplished. 

[Coffee and TV]

North Texas Ambulance Service Responds To Skyrocketing Number Of Cardiac Arrests

Houston reporting similar, but hey the official death rate is so low!

[THOR]

On 7/21/2020 at 7:13 PM, CMJ said:

Texas doesn't almost have the same number of cases as New York - it has about 80% the number.

 

The death rate from NY was much higher though.  In Texas it's currently about 1.2% and rising -- in the Empire State it is more like 7.5 percent and falling.

sorry, i was off by a bit for your liking...80% is close enough for me....and the texas death rate is so much smaller. ..84% smaller ...or is that not far enough away to say it is so much smaller?

[THOR]

11 hours ago, Coffee and TV said:

It also helps that NY actually reported deaths and Texas covers them up by saying their death was pneumonia. 

i did not know that new york was totally honest while texas has been a big fat liar

[CMJ]

7 minutes ago, THOR said:

sorry, i was off by a bit for your liking...80% is close enough for me....and the texas death rate is so much smaller. ..84% smaller ...or is that not far enough away to say it is so much smaller?

Well, 20% difference is a plenty big difference.

 

So is 84% for that matter, which I have also pointed out in the past.  Texas has to this point not been hit as hard as many states - it sits at 33rd on a deaths per million basis (NY is #2 behind New Jersey - also I'm counting Washington DC, so there are 51 markers, not 50) and actually is quite a bit below the national average on that score.  Whether that will keep up going forward is tough to know.  Texas recorded over 200 deaths today and seems likely to have large death numbers for awhile yet.  A couple of weeks ago Arizona was near where Texas was in DPM (deaths per million) and now it's #15.

 

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

Well today's Dallas County stats should be more in your liking them. 

413 new cases - 30 deaths. 

7.2% for the day.

 

[97and03]

 

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

There is some good stuff in here

https://fortune.com/2020/07/27/herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-sweden/

"Until a vaccine or multiple vaccines are developed and used on a global scale to confer herd immunity, human beings must exercise free will to protect themselves and the rest of the human herd by using masks, social distancing, and good old-fashioned common sense."

Ultimately it is saying what most of those logically people are saying -- that this is real -- herd immunity will not really work so let's practice what we know works until there is a vaccine. 

Saying we need to practice caution and common sense does not mean we want to shut down the economy and schools. Quit buying into the strawman arguments... 

[CMJ]

The seven day (deaths) rolling average reached 1000+ for the first time since June 3rd today.

Edited July 30, 2020 by CMJ

[meangreenacct]

On 7/2/2020 at 1:22 PM, Coffee and TV said:

Herman Cain June 20th

 

 

Herman Cain July 2nd

 

Herman Cain passed away due to COVID-19 after an extended hospital stay.