Has the Corona Virus infected anyone you know?

[Censored by Laurie]

1 hour ago, UNTLifer said:

My issue with the numbers is how accurate they actually are and of the unfortunate deaths coded to the virus, how many of these people had underlying conditions?  Three things have stood out to me in recent days that cause me to question everything:

1.  I have a friend in Dallas, and their parents decided to go and get tested.  They filled out the paperwork and after waiting almost two hours, left the clinic without being tested.  They were called a couple days later and informed that their tests were positive.  They informed the clinic that they were never tested to which the clinic responded by stating that they had their paperwork in front of them.  Again, they stated that they were not tested as they decided to leave after waiting for almost two hours.  A co-worker has a similar story.

2.  A woman died of the coronavirus at our hospital on Monday.  She was a resident of a local nursing facility and 91 years old.  The lasts sentence of the report states "she had underlying conditions."  The local news reported the same on the evening newscast.  So, out of all of these deaths, how many had underlying conditions, what were the conditions and had compromised was their immune system prior to contracting the virus.

3. There was an article on Yahoo! yesterday with the headline "21 Year Old Girl Dies After Taking Hydroxychloroquine."  After reading the article, it was revealed that she was a resident of Florida that attended a youth camp, didn't wear a mask and didn't practice social distancing.  Her parents self administer Hydroxycholoroquine and had her sit in her grandfather's oxygen chamber, all done outside the care of a physician.  She also suffered from a nervous system disorder, auto-immune disease and was clinically obese.  If someone had not read the article they would not know the true facts to the case.  The headline was disingenuous.  

Take from this what you want, but I am tired of reporting that doesn't share all of the facts and also of how some of these deaths are being coded.

see? this right here is why we won't have football. 

[Coffee and TV]

Official Covid death toll versus excess death tolls

 

[TheColonyEagle]

44 minutes ago, Coffee and TV said:

Official Covid death toll versus excess death tolls

 

OK...so why do you believe this graph? Sincere question.

At the 47:00 mark of the video I posted above....the very entity which is your source #2 in the above graph is telling you the numbers in that graph aren't accurate and don't tell the complete story. Meaning, no one knows what "official Covid death" means....because according to the State of Texas, you don't have to have a confirmed positive Covid test to classify the death as caused by Covid. And per the bottom of the slide: "The number of Covid-19 related deaths is going to increase due to the new case definitions."

Again...if I'm missing something here tell me. Maybe I'm looking at it wrong.

As for the eye rolls...did you watch the video? I don't understand how anyone can believe the numbers. I didn't get that video from some wacko right wing conspiracy theory site...it's Collin County meeting on the guidance from the State of Texas regarding reporting Covid cases.

 

Are the CDC numbers supposed to separate "associated" with Covid? What does that mean?

 

Edited July 8, 2020 by TheColonyEagle

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

2 hours ago, UNTLifer said:

My issue with the numbers is how accurate they actually are and of the unfortunate deaths coded to the virus, how many of these people had underlying conditions?  

1.  I have a friend in Dallas...

2.  ... how many had underlying conditions, what were the conditions and had compromised was their immune system prior to contracting the virus.

3. The headline was disingenuous.  

Take from this what you want, but I am tired of reporting that doesn't share all of the facts and also of how some of these deaths are being coded.

First - you think all the 'died of heart attacks' numbers are accurate? You think that EVERY person found in their bed dead has some magical autopsy and we know for 100% sure that they died of artery disease?  The answer is obviously no. We take the most likely cause and put it as the cause of death. So you wanting to not include excess deaths with high probably cause of COVID with all the COVID symptoms because they didn't actually get a test ... well... that is just crap. 

1. That story is bullshit. I saw it passed around Twitter from people claiming to have a friend in their city where it happened. But even if were the case, it would help the story line of the administration that this a harmless virus. No harm done. 
2. Huh?  I think you have a narrow view of what an "underlying condition" is. In reality, being a Boomer like yourself, it is an underlying condition. No doubt you have some artery blockage, or some high blood pressure, maybe a pre-diabetes going on... but otherwise normal and healthy and going on with your life. I still take this serious for you. 
3. Yep - agree here. She was in the COVID is not serious camp and her parents sent to her to a "COVID Party" to build up her immunity. They didn't want to report that and try to take care of it locally, it was just a cold. Poor young lady paid the price. 

 

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

43 minutes ago, TheColonyEagle said:

 

As for the eye rolls...did you watch the video? I don't understand how anyone can believe the numbers. 

1) As you know there is a resource problem. We can't run labs on all the excess deaths. It is not possible. Just purely, a waste of resources for a limited commodity for the living - when the dead do not care. I
2) The labs have a fairly high false NEGATIVE problem. It's well documented and it leads to the scarcity of tests. If a physician has to run two tests to try to compensate for the inherent false positive problem - we have an issue. 
3) Medicine is 'practiced' as a they say. There are a lot of clues that need to be tied together to get a 'probable cause' and then they go with it and see how they can fix it. If a person is known to have a seizure condition and they drove off the road in a lightning storm, the medical examiner will not do an autopsy - they will make it a likely death from a seizure while driving. Yes? No one is going to to rip  open their brain and try to prove it. They use context clues. Same for medicine. If they were near proximity to a positive COVID person, they are showing symptoms and but the FDA (other less accurate test) comes back false .... but all the other factors point to a COVID diagnosis, it should be noted as such. If this person ends up hospitalized - they will run another COVID test - and it should come back more accurately based on the probability .... and if they died of the symptoms of COVID ... put all the pieces together and call a duck a duck. You don't need to have some duck DNA expert to look at that dead duck. 

So yes - you should believe the numbers. The excess death numbers are THROUGH THE ROOF. Texas is way under reporting. 

Not requiring a positive PCR to call a COVID a COVID saves resources, time and lets medical reasoning prevail. 

Edited July 8, 2020 by SteaminWillieBeamin

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db67.htm#:~:text=The percentage of deaths for,frequently autopsied causes of death.

For your notion to not believe numbers: "In 1972, almost 1 out of 5 deaths were autopsied. From 1972 through 2003, however, the autopsy rate dropped 58 percent from 19.3 percent to 8.1 percent. Although the autopsy rate has increased slightly since 2003, only 8.5 percent, or fewer than 1 out of 10 deaths, were autopsied in 2007"

That is from the CDC itself. How can you trust the heart disease numbers? Cancer numbers? Alcohol poisoning deaths? 

There was no 100% confirmation. But when you find a person with an empty handle of Vodka in their bed .. you don't need it. Same for COVID. 

There are not shifting around of deaths here - there are still a TON more deaths. What accounts for that if not COVID? You think magically there is some other thing killing people? 

[TheColonyEagle]

5 minutes ago, SteaminWillieBeamin said:

If they were near proximity to a positive COVID person, they are showing symptoms and but the FDA (other less accurate test) comes back false .... but all the other factors point to a COVID diagnosis, it should be noted as such. 

The problem is the symptoms of Covid are identical to a sinus infection ,a cold or bad allergies...and the state has said they will count it as a case. So OF COURSE the numbers are going to explode...and we're supposed to expect policy to be made based on your above assumption?

If that's the case...I really don't have anything else to say. The cases are never going to come down if that's their criteria...how could they?

 

[TheColonyEagle]

10 minutes ago, SteaminWillieBeamin said:

There are not shifting around of deaths here - there are still a TON more deaths. What accounts for that if not COVID? You think magically there is some other thing killing people? 

OK....looking back at the graph...I see what you're saying now...where your conclusion comes from.

 

I would be curious to see Texas excess deaths compared to Covid Deaths. My assumption based on that graph is the trend would be the same. Comparing US numbers to Texas numbers doesn't make sense....considering all the excess deaths that came from New York...also would like to see how many of those Covid deaths had pre-existing conditions. No I'm not trying to kill grandma but it's still important.

[TheColonyEagle]

26 minutes ago, TheColonyEagle said:

OK....looking back at the graph...I see what you're saying now...where your conclusion comes from.

 

I would be curious to see Texas excess deaths compared to Covid Deaths. My assumption based on that graph is the trend would be the same. Comparing US numbers to Texas numbers doesn't make sense....considering all the excess deaths that came from New York...also would like to see how many of those Covid deaths had pre-existing conditions. No I'm not trying to kill grandma but it's still important.

Are there a TON more deaths? And in an unrelated note....why do so many people die at the start of the year? Hangover?

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard

Edited July 8, 2020 by TheColonyEagle

[Coffee and TV]

46 minutes ago, TheColonyEagle said:

The problem is the symptoms of Covid are identical to a sinus infection ,a cold or bad allergies...and the state has said they will count it as a case. So OF COURSE the numbers are going to explode

 

lol let me know when people are dying of sinus infections and seasonal allergies. 

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

Starting June 20th the excess deaths started to normalize - it is about to rise to May numbers based on the last two days. 

The last three weeks have been fairly normal - but I would caveat that people are not out doing their normal things - so deaths should be down overall based on this new living condition. But even with that... from March 21st till June 20th.. the excess deaths were up to 40% more deaths than normal. Zoomed out your graph doesn't look so bad. But for three months time - there were up to 20k (subtracting COVID) deaths per week. 

Texas has 3,000 more excess pneumonia deaths for far for the year. Without probable-covid community tracing, the cause can not be accounted for. 
 

[TheColonyEagle]

3 minutes ago, Coffee and TV said:

lol let me know when people are dying of sinus infections and seasonal allergies. 

according to the state of Texas, TONS are....

[CMJ]

I remember reading literature once years ago that speculated that one reason deaths are so high in January is older people are trying to make it to the New Year and once they do lose a bit of that will to stay alive.  Kinda like when there's a parent who through sheer force of will lives to see their kid be married or something (I had an Aunt do that for one of my cousins) and then basically dies immediately afterward.

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

Yes - there are a TON more deaths. 

I would consider 20k-5k more deaths a week over the standard deviation to be a TON.  I don't know your definition. But I think a whole Apogee stadium of people dead in a week as a TON. 

Also note the CDC on their reporting - recent reporting is inaccurate since only 60% of deaths are reported within 10 days. So there can be a few week lag on numbers. 

I mean look at that... some of those really bad weeks in this pandemic shows expected trend to be less than 60k deaths for that week ... and we recorded close to pushing 80k.  

That is what contact tracing is trying to prevent -- another April and May in 5 cities. 

Edited July 8, 2020 by SteaminWillieBeamin

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

24 minutes ago, TheColonyEagle said:

according to the state of Texas, TONS are....

Yep - without tracing - you will have them listed as unseasonal high deaths from seasonal allergies. 

[Coffee and TV]

38 minutes ago, TheColonyEagle said:

according to the state of Texas, TONS are....

Sorry, your logic is astoundingly confusing here. According to something said in the latest Collin County Commissioners meeting the state is classifying any death with Covid-related symptoms as a Covid death, do I have that right? 

[UNTLifer]

2 hours ago, SteaminWillieBeamin said:

First - you think all the 'died of heart attacks' numbers are accurate? You think that EVERY person found in their bed dead has some magical autopsy and we know for 100% sure that they died of artery disease?  The answer is obviously no. We take the most likely cause and put it as the cause of death. So you wanting to not include excess deaths with high probably cause of COVID with all the COVID symptoms because they didn't actually get a test ... well... that is just crap. 

1. That story is bullshit. I saw it passed around Twitter from people claiming to have a friend in their city where it happened. But even if were the case, it would help the story line of the administration that this a harmless virus. No harm done. 
2. Huh?  I think you have a narrow view of what an "underlying condition" is. In reality, being a Boomer like yourself, it is an underlying condition. No doubt you have some artery blockage, or some high blood pressure, maybe a pre-diabetes going on... but otherwise normal and healthy and going on with your life. I still take this serious for you. 
3. Yep - agree here. She was in the COVID is not serious camp and her parents sent to her to a "COVID Party" to build up her immunity. They didn't want to report that and try to take care of it locally, it was just a cold. Poor young lady paid the price. 

 

1.  Heard it from more than one person, so I don't know if it is true or not, but I have no reason to believe they would lie to me.

2.  Missed there Doogie.  I am officially not a Boomer, but I take that as a compliment.  No doubt I received a clean bill of health recently, no high blood pressure, not pre-diabetic, great blood O2 levels, great resting heart rate, etc...  Carry on with your off target assumptions Gen X'er.

3.  Well, what you state was alleged but not confirmed.  Either way, this young lady had a list of "underlying issues" that didn't help her at all.

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

1 hour ago, UNTLifer said:

I received a clean bill of health recently, no high blood pressure, not pre-diabetic, great blood O2 levels, great resting heart rate, etc... 

Dear leader! 

So happy for your health! 

 

Edited July 9, 2020 by SteaminWillieBeamin

[Censored by Laurie]

2 hours ago, UNTLifer said:

1.  Heard it from more than one person, so I don't know if it is true or not, but I have no reason to believe they would lie to me.

you heard a detail-specific story...where they were tested, how long they waited, what occurred in the follow-up consultation...from multiple people? 

was multiple people actually 40K re-tweets? https://twitter.com/KamVTV/status/1279489733249433600

how embarrassing, doc. 

you know, I honestly might understand a pandemic devolving into a political fight if it was isolated within our borders...it's just playing out the chalk of all of our other partisan arguments and everyone camps up hard behind their chosen ideological banner. but in this case, in order for there to be any "conspiracy" we'd literally need the cooperation of the entire world...like every world leader, illuminati, free mason and pedophile got together and said instead of the Olympics this year, let's build world unity around perpetuation of a virus hoax. 

the only real solace I can take in all this is that about 12 years ago I made a fervent commitment to follow the european soccer leagues and it has subsequently become my favorite sport...and since our friends across the pond have figured out a way to better manage this...through leadership, shared sacrifice inconvenience, an established social safety net and the recognition that between an economic system and a contagious virus, the prior should be adjusted to manage the later, not vise-versa...I'll still have live sports to watch while my industry goes through a now inevitable second shut-down. 

so for the rest of you, I'll trade your humility...a simple "we really cocked this up" will suffice...for a primer on the premier league. 

[CMJ]

Looks like the bottom was reached on July 5th.  The seven day rolling average has increased for three days in a row for the first time since May 31st-June 2nd.

 

July 5th  - 516

July 6th - 517

July 7th - 556

July 8th - 585

 

If the number increases tomorrow it'll be the first time since April the rolling average went up four days in a row.

[SteaminWillieBeamin]

@Censored by Laurie that twitter link sent me in to a rabbit hole that led to this: 

Some JB Neiman guy, who claims to be the attorney for 13 urgent care facilities in Texas -- yet has ZERO online presence.
- No LinkedIn 
- No voter registration.
- No driver license
- No property taxes paid 

... yet it seems like our conspiracy folks take it for gospel. 

The idea that the world is conspiring against Trump/GOP is backed by an anonymous email (fake name perhaps) that does not line up with my professional findings. Yet here we are. It is easier to believe some fool on twitter for the gospel. 

Somehow this invisible truth sayer blames the snowflakes for not seeking medical treatment early enough, so they end up in the ICU from other causes -- and THAT is how it explains the rise in hospitalizations, not COVID. And that they are in COVID units because it pays better (how? No idea). 

Not sure about how more testing of random people (who end up going to the ER for a TEST?!) ends up with a higher positive rate. That would lead it to a slower positive rate. But... you know... some JB Neiman on the internet typed an email to some social media reporter. 

MAGIC. 
 

Edited July 9, 2020 by SteaminWillieBeamin

[97and03]

9 hours ago, TheColonyEagle said:

The problem is the symptoms of Covid are identical to a sinus infection ,a cold or bad allergies...and the state has said they will count it as a case. So OF COURSE the numbers are going to explode...and we're supposed to expect policy to be made based on your above assumption?

If that's the case...I really don't have anything else to say. The cases are never going to come down if that's their criteria...how could they?

 

No one dies or is hospitalized for season allergies. You are intentionally being obtuse at this point. People aren’t sneezing and getting the sniffles and then dropping dead. 
Although COVID can cause heart and kidney issues, the most reasonable barometer of estimated excess deaths would be the pneumonia deaths. 
Where I am there now about 9000 confirmed COVID cases, but they are now releasing that pneumonia cases over the past couple months are in excess of 3500 and over 30-40 a day are dying from bilateral pneumonia even though many of those have negative tests. But false negatives are common and there are no other flu bugs going around here. The pneumonia cases are 2-3 times the norm. So they are just now starting to treat these as COVID cases and acknowledging their numbers have been off. 

Edited July 9, 2020 by 97and03

[97and03]

Here is a good read that has some limited stats and anecdotes from Houston. 

The TL;DR version is that at home deaths and emergency calls for cardiac arrest are up. Some verified as COVID, but no data available on most. Heart attacks are up and often related to COVID. 
Other deaths seem to be up due to people not seeking care earlier, although some later confirmed COViD. 

[Got5onIt]

Hearing about more people at my job going out from positive tests. More confirmed cases at a higher rate than earlier in the pandemic. One person’s baseball team had to drop from a tournament due to most of the team being infected.

Edited July 11, 2020 by Got5onIt

[97and03]

To follow up on an earlier narrative about why deaths are not the gold standard:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-warning-from-italy-effects-of-covid-19-could-be-worse-than-first-thought-12027348

The virus is a systemic infection that affects all the organs of the body, not, as was previously thought, just a respiratory disease, they say.

 

The physicians warn that people who do not consider themselves in a vulnerable group and aren't concerned at contracting the disease could be putting themselves in danger of life-changing illnesses if they ignore the rules to keep safe.

 

"At first, initially, we thought it was a bad flu, then we thought it was a bad flu with a very bad pneumonia, it was the phase when you came here, but subsequently we discovered that it is a systemic illness with vessel damage in the whole body with renal involvement, cerebral involvement," 

"So we are seeing other acute manifestations of renal failure that require dialysis; or stroke, and then acute myocardial infarction, so a lot of complications or other manifestations of the virus.

"And also now we see a significant proportion of the population with chronic damage from the virus."