Has the Corona Virus infected anyone you know?

THOR · April 22, 2020

the corona/covid 19 seems to a straight party line divide...depending on your side, the president did great/sucked. i have 2 questions, 1 for both sides and both hypothetical:

1. people say that trump didn't shutdown the travel/states/social stuff early enough, so what happens if he would have shut down the states/social distancing before super tuesday (march 3rd) for the delegate voting and stuff for figuring out a democratic nominee? would those that vote for that political party been ok with him doing that to try and prevent the spread, thus not being able to vote in the democratic primary?

2. if trump never did anything to shutdown/prevent the spread of the virus and the original projection of 2+million deaths actually happened, would you still have supported him and how he handled the covid?

thanks...i'll drink a beer while reading responses

ColoradoEagle · April 22, 2020

14 minutes ago, keith said:

Let's see how we stack up against other first world nations on a per million basis...According to Sweden using their data and data available from Johns Hopkins.

I'd be interested in the context of the chart. When taking data from worldometers.info which seems to be doing a decent job so far updating their numbers, the US is:

#1 in total cases
#16 in cases per million (if counting all countries)
#7 in cases per million if you don't count countries with less than 1m population
#1 in total deaths
#16 in deaths per million (if counting all countries)
#11 in deaths per million of you don't count countries with less than 1m population
#43 in tests per million

All of this is out of a total of 205 countries. As of today, the only major countries we're having less deaths per million than are: Belgium, Spain, Italy, France, UK, Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, and Ireland. So if you're saying we're doing better than some other really hard hit nations? That's true.

If you're saying that there are nations that are hit harder than us, so we're doing an ok or good job? That's a leap. It's especially a leap if you're trying to credit the federal response to that when up to this point it's been 90% governors, mayors, and (in the case of Texas) county judges taking the world on their shoulders as far as the government is involved.

ColoradoEagle · April 22, 2020

1 hour ago, THOR said:

1. people say that trump didn't shutdown the travel/states/social stuff early enough, so what happens if he would have shut down the states/social distancing before super tuesday (march 3rd) for the delegate voting and stuff for figuring out a democratic nominee? would those that vote for that political party been ok with him doing that to try and prevent the spread, thus not being able to vote in the democratic primary?

This is a lot to unpack.

People say that Trump didn't shutdown Travel soon enough

His decision to stop travel into the states from China wasn't bad. It wasn't early enough to stop the virus from coming in, and as others have said, they're currently saying it may have come mostly from Europe anyway. I don't really think there could have been a soon enough for something like this, so it's not really something that even enters my mind. The part that was missing from the travel restrictions was to get TSA/CBP into PPE and start taking the temperatures of people entering and looking for/asking about symptoms, similar to Taiwan.

People say that Trump didn't shutdown states/social stuff early enough

Not within his authority, but he also made no recommendations to states that I can recall (correct me if I'm wrong) other than social distancing and limiting headcount at gatherings. All the shutdowns and shelter in place orders came from state and local governments.

What about before Super Tuesday (March 3rd)?

I think a great response would have been to issue shelter in place recommendations before Super Tuesday. However, the first SIP order in the country didn't come until March 16th (effective 3/17) for the Bay Area of California. So while it would've been great if this were in place, without knowing the entirety of briefings and conversations behind the scenes, it's hard to tell whether even the first order in CA was late because of no Federal direction, or if it was more aggressive than the oval office would have been, regardless of who's sitting in it.

What about the primaries?

I think states could delay similar to what we've seen from other states. That doesn't stop Conservative leaning state governments and judges from overriding, however, and continuing as if we were in normal times. Something that blew up in their faces in spectacular fashion in Wisconsin.

Conclusion

This shouldn't be a political conversation. Democrat and Republican governors are saying the Federal response is poor. A Nobel prize winning economist is saying the response is poor. Hell, Piers freaking Morgan is saying the response is poor. At some point, you have to stop rooting for your team and root for what's best for the country. Right now, science and medicine is what's best for the country.

When you're taking medical advice from Trump (hydroxychloroquine), pushing to reopen the economy despite health warnings all because of a bunch of astroturfed tiny protests and political memes, and thinking that every hospital, Mayor, and governor is "out to get Trump!"...well, you (general you, not calling out THOR) need a f'n reality check.

Edited April 22, 2020 by ColoradoEagle

keith · April 22, 2020

34 minutes ago, ColoradoEagle said:

I'd be interested in the context of the chart. When taking data from worldometers.info which seems to be doing a decent job so far updating their numbers, the US is:

#1 in total cases

#16 in cases per million (if counting all countries)

#7 in cases per million if you don't count countries with less than 1m population

#1 in total deaths

#16 in deaths per million (if counting all countries)

#11 in deaths per million of you don't count countries with less than 1m population

#43 in tests per million

All of this is out of a total of 205 countries. As of today, the only major countries we're having less deaths per million than are: Belgium, Spain, Italy, France, UK, Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, and Ireland. So if you're saying we're doing better than some other really hard hit nations? That's true.

If you're saying that there are nations that are hit harder than us, so we're doing an ok or good job? That's a leap. It's especially a leap if you're trying to credit the federal response to that when up to this point it's been 90% governors, mayors, and (in the case of Texas) county judges taking the world on their shoulders as far as the government is involved.

I wasn't trying to say anything other than provide an independent perspective (if we can believe Sweden and Johns Hopkins are independent) to your specific comment on comparing the reaction and planning of the US to "several other first world nations that saw nowhere near the case and death count per million that we're seeing." The 15 countries are all modern, first world countries and with the exception of Iran are open societies so a good comparison to the US.

1 hour ago, ColoradoEagle said:

Well, it is an honest question when we can compare the reaction and planning of the US government to several other first world nations that saw nowhere near the case and death count per million that we're seeing.

Here's the context that Sweden provides about their methodology. It seems they have taken reasonable steps to create an apples to apples comparison. I had mentioned Sweden earlier in this thread because they have taken a slightly different approach than the other counties they are comparing themselves to.

These graphs show how the total number of deaths have increased in different countries so that we can get a better picture of how the virus is spreading in Sweden compared to other countries, i.e. whether the curve in Sweden is flatter or steeper than other countries. The curves begin on the day that a country had 8 deaths, which is a number that is somewhat arbitrary chosen but makes sure that the growth rate has started to stabilize. The reason that we choose to show deaths instead of cases is that different countries have very different testing strategies, which means that the number of cases might differ dramatically simply because some country is testing a lot.

The reason that we don't show a per capita graph by default is that the early stage of a virus spreading is expected to look the same regardless of population size. We do however include a per capita (or deaths per million inhabitants) graph in another tab as it might still be interesting to see how bad the situation is in a country in terms of death per capita. This curve starts when the country had 1 death / 1 million inhabitants.

Edited April 22, 2020 by keith

ColoradoEagle · April 22, 2020

4 minutes ago, keith said:

I wasn't trying to say anything other than provide an independent perspective (if we can believe Sweden and Johns Hopkins are independent) to your specific comment on comparing the reaction and planning of the US to "several other first world nations that saw nowhere near the case and death count per million that we're seeing." The 15 countries are all modern, first world countries and with the exception of Iran are open societies so a good comparison to the US.

Got it. My point was more towards the ends of a better outcome was/is most definitely possible given that other countries with similar resources (South Korea, Taiwan, Canada, Australia, etc) have had far fewer deaths per million than we have had. As I said in my post just after this one, I feel like we've seen a tremendous response from a vast majority of state and local governments. I know my opinion of Betsy Price did a 180 after this. It's the Federal response that I, and many others, believe is lacking.

And thanks for posting the methodology for the chart. My inner-statistics nerd needed that.

FirefightnRick · April 22, 2020

Are there any other countries other than the U.S. going thru an election season?

Rick

ColoradoEagle · April 22, 2020

6 minutes ago, FirefightnRick said:

Are there any other countries other than the U.S. going thru an election season?

South Korea just went through an election that was a landslide win for Democrats.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Three-reasons-for-Moon-s-landslide-in-South-Korea-s-elections

FirefightnRick · April 22, 2020

8 minutes ago, ColoradoEagle said:

South Korea just went through an election that was a landslide win for Democrats.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Three-reasons-for-Moon-s-landslide-in-South-Korea-s-elections

Thank you. I wonder if their media politically polarized the outbreak as much as ours has? I doubt it?

Rick

ColoradoEagle · April 22, 2020

5 minutes ago, FirefightnRick said:

Thank you. I wonder if their media politically polarized the outbreak as much as ours has? I doubt it?

I know I’m going down a rabbit hole here, but what, in your opinion, has the media done to politicize this?

FirefightnRick · April 23, 2020

44 minutes ago, ColoradoEagle said:

I know I’m going down a rabbit hole here, but what, in your opinion, has the media done to politicize this?

Your kidding, right?

Since day one every response the evil red man has made to fight the outbreak has been politicized.

January 30th

CNN’s “Coronavirus task force another example of Trump administration's lack of diversity”

Rick

Edited April 23, 2020 by FirefightnRick

greenminer · April 23, 2020

51 minutes ago, ColoradoEagle said:

I know I’m going down a rabbit hole here, but what, in your opinion, has the media done to politicize this?

It's amazing what this virus has revealed. Instead of everyone (globally, not just politically) uniting together to fight this thing, we have a political climate that encourages both sides to be skeptical of any information that challenges their view.

I mean, politically ,we have already been in this climate. But the virus has reinforced this. Views on Fauci, Trump, the CDC, WHO, and China are almost perfectly in line with what side of the political aisle you're on.

CMJ · April 23, 2020

It should be noted that in the 1918 pandemic we held a midterm election. The East Coast was largely done with it by November, but once you got passed the Mississippi or so they were still very much knee deep in it (the 2nd wave moved East to West along the train lines and spread out from there).

Given the population makeup of the time way more people were in the Eastern timezone though (even more so than now by percentage). Nonetheless it was a fairly low turnout election - probably largely because of the pandemic. The fact that the war was still going on (though near completion) may also have dampened turnout I guess.

FirefightnRick · April 23, 2020

12 hours ago, CMJ said:

Yeah, it's probably more! It certainly is for the flu every year. They never come out with final figures till months/years later.

@CMJ Right you are.

Rick

ColoradoEagle · April 23, 2020

3 hours ago, FirefightnRick said:

Your kidding, right?

Since day one every response the evil red man has made to fight the outbreak has been politicized.

January 30th

CNN’s “Coronavirus task force another example of Trump administration's lack of diversity”

This isn’t really about the virus. Is it rooted in some truth? Sure. But it’s noise. It’s not going to get Trump to add more diversity in his hiring process. Knowing what we know now, it’s also one of the least important questions that could’ve been asked at the time.

When I think about this situation being politicized, going back to what @greenminer posted, you’ve literally got one political affiliation that trusts and believes in what comes out of the medical community and science. You’ve got another political affiliation where, by and large, unless it comes from Trump or Fox News, it’s ‘fake news’.

That’s why I’m interested in your examples, because while there are plenty of examples of opinion and bias driven media, it’s rare that I see anything coming from the center or left on the virus that isn’t rooted in some amount of research and expert opinion, even if the end conclusion is questionable or debatable. From the right I see a lot of ‘gut feelings’ that don’t really make much sense and seems to be contributing to the politicization we’ve seen the past couple weeks.

CMJ · April 23, 2020

Analysis of the UK, and I wish I had the US version, but i think this might give us an idea of what's happening here too.

FirefightnRick · April 23, 2020

6 hours ago, CMJ said:

Analysis of the UK, and I wish I had the US version, but i think this might give us an idea of what's happening here too.

No it wouldn’t because half of our deaths(ASSUMED) have occurred in one tiny 24(?) square mile area of the country.

Rick

keith · April 23, 2020

7 hours ago, CMJ said:

Analysis of the UK, and I wish I had the US version, but i think this might give us an idea of what's happening here too.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/cuomo-coronavirus-nursing-home-policy-proves-tragic-goodwin/

CMJ · April 23, 2020

1 hour ago, FirefightnRick said:

No it wouldn’t because half of our deaths(ASSUMED) have occurred in one tiny 24(?) square mile area of the country.

Rick

I assume you mean Manhattan? NYC is reporting between 10-11K coronavirus deaths (all boroughs). The State of NY has 20K+ ---- the country has nearly 48K.

I'd say your math is slightly off.

keith · April 23, 2020

10 minutes ago, CMJ said:

I assume you mean Manhattan? NYC is reporting between 10-11K coronavirus deaths (all boroughs). The State of NY has 20K+ ---- the country has nearly 48K.

I'd say your math is slightly off.

The influence of New York City is much, much greater than Manhattan which most people think of when they think of New York City. You really need to look at all the surrounding counties/states (Long Island, Westchester NY, Bergen NJ, Union NJ, Passaic, NJ, Rockland NY, Fairfield, CT, and even others). So while the tiny 24 square mile area of the country is a bit of hyperbole, I don't think the underlying assessment is far off.

There was also a mass exodus from Manhattan/NYC (for those that could leave). If you recall, some areas of the country were asking New Yorkers not to come and local health experts were asking New Yorkers not to leave/travel outside of the area. How much was transferred out of NYC as a result of the exodus?

When this was first starting, I jokingly said to some friends, "we may have to sacrifice Manhattan for the sake of the country." I wasn't serious, of course....my son lives in Manhattan, but if it entered my mind, I'm sure others were thinking it too.

CMJ · April 23, 2020

On 4/23/2020 at 6:50 AM, keith said:

The influence of New York City is much, much greater than Manhattan which most people think of when they think of New York City. You really need to look at all the surrounding counties/states (Long Island, Westchester NY, Bergen NJ, Union NJ, Passaic, NJ, Rockland NY, Fairfield, CT, and even others). So while the tiny 24 square mile area of the country is a bit of hyperbole, I don't think the underlying assessment is far off.

There was also a mass exodus from Manhattan/NYC (for those that could leave). If you recall, some areas of the country were asking New Yorkers not to come and local health experts were asking New Yorkers not to leave/travel outside of the area. How much was transferred out of NYC as a result of the exodus?

When this was first starting, I jokingly said to some friends, "we may have to sacrifice Manhattan for the sake of the country." I wasn't serious, of course....my son lives in Manhattan, but if it entered my mind, I'm sure others were thinking it too.

The deaths have obviously been heavily concentrated there so far. On a deaths per million scale NY, NJ, and Connecticut are the top three states -- and of course they're all situated together like you said. I will point out that deaths around the country have been rising in proportion as NY's have decreased the last few days.

Not to mention this model (the famous one that predicted 83K-240K deaths and then backed down to 60K a week or so ago) updated their projection back up to 67K last night. After the initial backing away they are accounting for rising figures throughout the country and not just the NYC area. Given that some states are about to take down some of their social distancing measures, i would expect they update again in another week to ten days with a higher number.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Edited April 28, 2020 by CMJ

keith · April 23, 2020

10 hours ago, ColoradoEagle said:

When I think about this situation being politicized, going back to what @greenminer posted, you’ve literally got one political affiliation that trusts and believes in what comes out of the medical community and science. You’ve got another political affiliation where, by and large, unless it comes from Trump or Fox News, it’s ‘fake news’.

I've tried, for the most part, avoid the political aspects associated with this pandemic, but agree that it seems to have magnified the divide in this country. If we can't come together and put our petty (and they really are petty) differences aside for a few 'effing months for something like this, then maybe we are doomed as a nation.

I'll modify your characterization above....one side sees the other as knuckle-draggers and mouth-breathers and they, in turn, see the other side as snowflakes and elitists. Neither is true and only serves to piss everyone off. Both sides feel compelled to defend positions they normally wouldn't defend or scour the Internet to find someone who agrees with them just to prove a point. The swirling cycle of back-and-forth BS goes on and on and on with no end in sight.

FirefightnRick · April 23, 2020

1 hour ago, CMJ said:

I assume you mean Manhattan? NYC is reporting between 10-11K coronavirus deaths (all boroughs). The State of NY has 20K+ ---- the country has nearly 48K.

I'd say your math is slightly off.

Slightly....but not enough to..

hollywood data GIF

I truly wonder if any of you have ever gotten in a car and driven across this country in your life? He’ll, how bout just Texas?

Rick

Edited April 23, 2020 by FirefightnRick

CMJ · April 23, 2020

8 minutes ago, FirefightnRick said:

Slightly....but not enough to..

I truly wonder if any of you have ever gotten in a car and driven across this country in your life? He’ll, how bout just Texas?

Rick

I've been to like 40 states. We used to take family vacations driving throughout the whole country because my dad was a computer software guy in the early days. So if he had a conference in Seattle we'd drive up the whole way and a different path coming back to see as many states as we could.

Also have extended family in PA and Rhode island and we'd drive to and from there too. My dad has only been on one plane my entire life. He had a job thing in Ohio once when I was a kid and he rented a car and drove back because flying was too much of a deal for him.

So yes, I've seen all sorts of places in the US. Thanks for asking though. Want the photo albums?

Edited April 23, 2020 by CMJ

ColoradoEagle · April 23, 2020

30 minutes ago, keith said:

Both sides feel compelled to defend positions they normally wouldn't defend or scour the Internet to find someone who agrees with them just to prove a point. The swirling cycle of back-and-forth BS goes on and on and on with no end in sight.

I try not to 'both sides' things, because it's almost always disingenuous. You can't present equal time and consideration in an argument to one side that promotes eating babies, and the other side that says it's wrong. Not saying any person or party is advocating that particular position, before anyone loses their shit. Just a hypothetical argument where you would say, "this position clearly has no merit" and it shouldn't be boosted as a legitimate viewpoint.

Legitimate debate and arguments are engaging and enlightening. Ones where people come in with talking points, bad faith, and animosity don't contribute anything to anyone.

Edited April 23, 2020 by ColoradoEagle

FirefightnRick · April 23, 2020

34 minutes ago, CMJ said:

I've been to like 40 states. We used to take family vacations driving throughout the whole country because my dad was a computer software guy in the early days. So if he had a conference in Seattle we'd drive up the whole way and a different path coming back to see as many states as we could.

Also have extended family in PA and Rhode island and we'd drive to and from there too. My dad has only been on one plane my entire life. He had a job thing in Ohio once when I was a kid and he rented a car and drove back because flying was too much of a deal for him.

So yes, I've seen all sorts of places in the US. Thanks for asking though. Want the photo albums?

Ok,....so then you know that driving wise, through the size of area we’re talking about,..New Jersey plus New York City, which currently accounts for roughly half the deaths for the entire nation.......is similar to driving from Plano to Benbrook on the west side of Fort Worth.

So to keep shuttered in and curled up in the fetal position because you think the entire country is New York City/New Jersey .....and it’s 1918....... is just silly.

Rick