Has the Corona Virus infected anyone you know?

greenminer · April 16, 2020

45 minutes ago, FirefightnRick said:

Of course the numbers are rising when deaths are being coded on a probable guess.

Rick

It’s not accurate, but they are trying to factor in deaths that were not accounted for at all in previous totals.

CMJ · April 16, 2020

1 hour ago, FirefightnRick said:

Of course the numbers are rising when deaths are being coded on a probable guess.

Rick

That's how deaths are generally coded as was posted before in this very thread.

It's also how countries generally revise numbers at year's end. Hell, the flu is always studied afterward and calculated as a percentage of pneumonia deaths.

Edited April 16, 2020 by CMJ

FirefightnRick · April 16, 2020

1 hour ago, CMJ said:

That's how deaths are generally coded as was posted before in this very thread.

It's also how countries generally revise numbers at year's end. Hell, the flu is always studied afterward and calculated as a percentage of pneumonia deaths.

And it’s dishonest and being used to justify sending millions of people to unemployment.

As it’s looking our overall mortality rates may be no worse than normal if our rates are found to be similar to Great Britain’s.

The British statistics professor David Spiegelhalter shows that the risk of death from Covid19 corresponds roughly to normal mortality and is visibly increased only for the age group between approx. 70 and 80 years of age.

https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196

Rick

CMJ · April 16, 2020

5 minutes ago, FirefightnRick said:

And it’s dishonest and being used to justify sending millions of people to unemployment.

As it’s looking our overall mortality rates may be no worse than normal if our rates are found to be similar to Great Britain’s.

The British statistics professor David Spiegelhalter shows that the risk of death from Covid19 corresponds roughly to normal mortality and is visibly increased only for the age group between approx. 70 and 80 years of age.

https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196

Rick

It's not dishonest. Deaths are always up to the doctor and hospital system as to how to code them.

Besides, it's one thing to say our system is being dishonest. Fine, whatever I don't think so but I'll give you the argument for now just for the sake of argument. But it's the whole world! Do you really think Italy and Spain and Belgium, etc are fudging their numbers upward?

If anything I suspect countries would want to downplay their figures like China probably did. I also don't trust the numbers coming out of Ecuador as there is footage of people literally dead on the street and so far they've only counted like 300 deaths.

Edited April 16, 2020 by CMJ

Coffee and TV · April 16, 2020

2 hours ago, FirefightnRick said:

Of course the numbers are rising when deaths are being coded on a probable guess.

Rick

Or Not.

Edited April 16, 2020 by Coffee and TV

FirefightnRick · April 16, 2020

2 minutes ago, CMJ said:

It's not dishonest. Deaths are always up to the doctor and hospital system as to how to code them.

Besides, it's one thing to say our system is being dishonest. Fine, whatever I don't think so but I'll give you the argument for now just for the sake of argument. But it's the whole world! Do you really think Italy and Spain and Belgium, etc are fudging their numbers upward?

If anything I suspect countries would want to downplay their figures like China probably did. I also don't trust the numbers coming out of Ecuador as there is footage of people literally dead on the street and so far they've only counted like 300 deaths.

If you want to keep shitting your pants over this, fine. I can’t be there to tuck you in at night and tell you it’ll be ok or prevent you from curling into the fetal position each day as another of the average 7,000 deaths in the U.S. scrolls across your tv screen dishonestly reported as another Cov-19 fatality.

Obviously 15-20 million people losing their jobs and livelihoods being destroyed, including those in our sports programs returning to normal means nothing to you?

I just don’t know what else to tell you?

Rick

CMJ · April 16, 2020

2 hours ago, FirefightnRick said:

If you want to keep shitting your pants over this, fine. I can’t be there to tuck you in at night and tell you it’ll be ok or prevent you from curling into the fetal position each day as another of the average 7,000 deaths in the U.S. scrolls across your tv screen dishonestly reported as another Cov-19 fatality.

Obviously 15-20 million people losing their jobs and livelihoods being destroyed, including those in our sports programs returning to normal means nothing to you?

I just don’t know what else to tell you?

Rick

Dude, I am currently unemployed. This isn't exactly great for me either.

Thankfully my wife is a cop and isn't in any danger of not working.

And saying dishonestly reported is a freaking joke. By your standard practically EVERY death would be "dishonest" because it's always up to the doctor to give a best guess if there are multiple co-morbidity's. And there usually are!

Edited April 16, 2020 by CMJ

FirefightnRick · April 16, 2020

4 minutes ago, Coffee and TV said:

Or Not.

Yeah the CDC modelers who can’t seem to guess if it’s gonna be 2 1/2 Million deaths or 60k? Which is it?

Theyd have just as good of luck using a magic 8 ball.

Rick

CMJ · April 16, 2020

1 hour ago, FirefightnRick said:

Yeah the CDC modelers who can’t seem to guess if it’s gonna be 2 1/2 Million deaths or 60k? Which is it?

Theyd have just as good of luck using a magic 8 ball.

Rick

The models shifted based on whether we tried social distancing measures or not.

Edited April 16, 2020 by CMJ

FirefightnRick · April 16, 2020

3 minutes ago, CMJ said:

Dude, I am currently unemployed. This isn't exactly great for me either.

Thankfully my wife is a cop and isn't in any danger of not working.

I’m sorry, it’s just....you seem so fearful? Hopefully yalls goofy ass Governor ends your imprisonment and you’ll get back out there?

Rick

CMJ · April 16, 2020

Just now, FirefightnRick said:

I’m sorry, it’s just....you seem so fearful? Hopefully yalls goofy ass Governor ends your imprisonment and you’ll get back out there?

Rick

Not fearful, but realistic.

I'm a student of history. This has serious echoes of the 1918-1919 pandemic. I don't wanna see 2 million people dead from this.

Even then there were people that didn't want stuff closed down. Businesses and churches tried to sue city governments all over the place (back then it was more cities rather than states shutting things down).

FirefightnRick · April 16, 2020

8 minutes ago, CMJ said:

The models shifted based on whether we tried social distancing measures of not.

They were wrong as they usually are and we’re used to spread panic,.....and boy do I know of one individual who for sure took them serious.🤔

Rick

CMJ · April 16, 2020

5 minutes ago, FirefightnRick said:

They were wrong as they usually are and we’re used to spread panic,.....and boy do I know of one individual who for sure took them serious.🤔

Rick

LOL, I calculated a similar number of potential deaths way before that model ever came out. The British study that was released about a month ago (before the CDC model i might add) just confirmed my suspicions. I did a rough mathematical calculation on the back of an envelope when it was still largely relegated to China based on the numbers coming out at the time and came up with 1.8 million dead Americans.

And even then, I thought it was too early to shut things down in March if you go re-read the posts in the March Madness threads. But once you have everything shut down like we do now, you might as well keep it closed at least until the wave passes, because you're not gonna get the country to do this again. So might as well make it worth it.

Next go round I expect a lot more deaths unless they get some treatments that actually work.

Edited April 16, 2020 by CMJ

FirefightnRick · April 16, 2020

18 minutes ago, CMJ said:

Not fearful, but realistic.

I'm a student of history. This has serious echoes of the 1918-1919 pandemic. I don't wanna see 2 million people dead from this.

Even then there were people that didn't want stuff closed down. Businesses and churches tried to sue city governments all over the place (back then it was more cities rather than states shutting things down).

This isn’t 1918...good lord????

frustrated ugh GIF by Equipe de France de Football

Rick

CMJ · April 16, 2020

2 minutes ago, FirefightnRick said:

This isn’t 1918...good lord????

Rick

You're right, our population is three times greater now, hence why so many more deaths than 675,000.

UNTLifer · April 16, 2020

When funding is tied to Coronavirus deaths, numbers will be skewed.

CMJ · April 16, 2020

1 hour ago, UNTLifer said:

When funding is tied to Coronavirus deaths, numbers will be skewed.

Yes, I'm sure every country has funding tied to coronavirus deaths. *sarcasm*

I bet the death numbers worldwide are way under reported right now.

Edited April 17, 2020 by CMJ

NT93 · April 16, 2020

On 4/9/2020 at 2:44 PM, Monkeypox said:

I can give you my numbers, but I only work in coding, billing, and consulting, so I do not have direct patient care. I work for 4 different companies in Dallas, Houston, and Ft Worth, and we have patients in every major hospital. Between the approximately 1200 patients whose paperwork I process (including their coding) and submit to both insurance and CMS, we've had 22 deaths in the last three weeks related to respiratory illnesses. I do about $100,000 worth of claims a day, and I read about 6000 patient notes on a weekly basis. Deaths are NOT being recorded as Coronavirus (U07.1) deaths when they have not yet had positive test results back. They might be doing that regularly in some places, but not anything I've seen (and I'm still only seeing a small percentage of the overall).

Since we're still getting caught up on testing, a number of patients have died on day 3-4, and we're still waiting test results for them on day 10-11. They are being coded for pneumonia or R99 for the most part. This means that there are currently deaths that have NOT and NEVER WILL BE reported as Coronavirus (I have 7 specifically right now), and many more that will be investigated (hopefully, but there's a major backlog right now) and added later.

As the CDC has stated is simply coding clarification meant to capture the most accurate patient information. There are separate codes for probable coronavirus U07.1, U07.2 (most of whom have been getting coded for pneumonia or any number of other respiratory illnesses for the better part of a month now), and potentially R99.

And keep in mind, the coding instructions for the CDC are not flying into the hospitals, nursing homes, and coroner's offices and coding for them. Death certificates contain MULTIPLE codes, beginning with the IMMEDIATE CAUSE OF DEATH. They'll generally contain up to 3 or 4 codes. Coders and individual physicians and coroners are going to code how they're going to code. You can have two physicians seeing the same patient, and you could get completely different answers depending on who filled out the paperwork.

It should also be noted that, as our Covid-19 death reporting has gone up, our pneumonia deaths have gone down roughly 30%, but are still nearly twice above our regular average for this time of year.

At this point, neither our death rate nor our total numbers of cases are anywhere near accurate. But I'll say we're not OVERSTATING deaths due to Coronavirus right now, from what I've seen dealing with some of the most populated cities and counties in the state. But while we're understating the deaths, we're also understating the cases, so the rate itself is meaningless at this point, and probably will continue to be until we're through about 3 waves of it.

On a personal note, I'm getting to wait an extra two weeks to get assessed for possible lymphoma or pneumothorax, because I have a cough - a cough that's as likely being caused by a lung tear or chest mass at this point as Covid, but we're gonna throw an antibiotic at it for now. I've found it near impossible to get a Covid test (as a proven negative would get me in for ultrasound/CT/biopsy), because I'm not "sick enough", as I've not had a fever (and I'm on week 3-4 of having the cough).

This post has almost 15 upvotes, so I know I’m not the only one who read it.

FirefightnRick · April 16, 2020

We must count the deaths from shutdowns as well as from coronavirus

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2020/04/14/we-must-count-the-deaths-from-shutdowns-as-well-as-from-coronavirus/amp/

Since the coronavirus shutdown began, nearly 17 million Americans have lost their jobs. That’s one-tenth of the nation’s workforce. It’s a public-health disaster. If the shutdown drags on, as many public-health experts recommend it should, it is almost certain to kill more Americans than the virus.
The academics and public-health officials who have concocted models of the virus’s spread are telling us that we have to continue the shutdown to save thousands of lives. It’s too bad none of their models considers the deaths that will be caused by unemployment.

Before the virus hit, America’s unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, the lowest in 50 years. Now Goldman Sachs predicts unemployment could spike to 15 percent by midyear. A St. Louis Federal Reserve economist grimly predicts 32 percent unemployment — worse than during the Great Depression........

greenminer · April 17, 2020

Wish testing were more widely available.

FirefightnRick · April 17, 2020

3 hours ago, greenminer said:

Wish testing were more widely available.

Agree.

Rick

Coffee and TV · April 17, 2020

16 hours ago, FirefightnRick said:

Yeah the CDC modelers who can’t seem to guess if it’s gonna be 2 1/2 Million deaths or 60k? Which is it?

Theyd have just as good of luck using a magic 8 ball.

Rick

This is just a gross misrepresentation of what those two numbers mean, so you're either BSing because you have no defense or you don't seem to understand how models work. You know I didn't get a look at this thread until yesterday and I notice how you went from being worried based on your job to simply taking all your cues from conservative talking points. Pretty funny to see, honestly.