Updated Odds

BillySee58 · January 19, 2020

Last night was pretty obviously a huge win for us, and what the metrics show is certainly congruent with that feeling.

According to Bart Torvik’s website, our chances of having at least a share of 1st place heading into pool play jumped from about 58% to 86% with the win, and our chances of going into pool play as the outright 1st place team jumped from I believe about 33% to 66%.

http://www.barttorvik.com/conodds.php?conf=CUSA

We are also now 1st in CUSA in NET (jumped La Tech with the win), 2nd in CUSA in KenPom behind La Tech, and 2nd in RPI begins WKU according to RealTimeRPI.

We have put ourselves in a great position to be in the thick of things. Now time to take care of some games we should win.

Cooke County Kid · January 19, 2020

The team would benefit from more fans, it helps in a close game and besides it is a fun time!!

GO MEAN GREEN!!!!!!

WIN GAMES!!!!!!

greenminer · January 19, 2020

On 1/18/2020 at 1:28 PM, greenminer said:

RealTimeRPI (1/18)
UNT 136
LT 134

After the win in Ruston:
UNT 116
LT 147

CUSA RPI Rankings:

greenminer · January 19, 2020

Remaining schedule:

NorthTexasSportsNetwork · January 19, 2020

26 minutes ago, greenminer said:

Remaining schedule:

So we beat a solid UTSA team by 22, but lose by 9 to a inconsistent UAB team lol.

greenminer · January 19, 2020

6 minutes ago, NorthTexasSportsNetwork said:

So we beat a solid UTSA team by 22, but lose by 9 to a inconsistent UAB team lol.

I'm not really familiar with these two teams, but I see an RPI difference of 100+.

NorthTexasSportsNetwork · January 19, 2020

Just now, greenminer said:

I'm not really familiar with these two teams, but I see an RPI difference of 100+.

UAB really fell off when Bryant left the program. Also it's not easy to win on the road in the cusa

Andrew · January 19, 2020

6 hours ago, BillySee58 said:

Last night was pretty obviously a huge win for us, and what the metrics show is certainly congruent with that feeling.

According to Bart Torvik’s website, our chances of having at least a share of 1st place heading into pool play jumped from about 58% to 86% with the win, and our chances of going into pool play as the outright 1st place team jumped from I believe about 33% to 66%.

http://www.barttorvik.com/conodds.php?conf=CUSA

We are also now 1st in CUSA in NET (jumped La Tech with the win), 2nd in CUSA in KenPom behind La Tech, and 2nd in RPI begins WKU according to RealTimeRPI.

We have put ourselves in a great position to be in the thick of things. Now time to take care of some games we should win.

Hopefully this Is building to something better than a 15-16 seed...

UNTLifer · January 19, 2020

I would be comfortable in stating that I don't think this team is anywhere near their potential at this point. If they keep working hard and don't get ahead of themselves, there is no reason they shouldn't win out. I love the defense this team plays and look forward to a complete offensive game from our guys. This team can be special.

BillySee58 · January 19, 2020

14 minutes ago, Andrew said:

Hopefully this Is building to something better than a 15-16 seed...

Gonna be tough with the amount of losses. Not much margin for error but hey, MTSU was a 15 seed in 2015 then got a 12 seed the next year. Just need to focus on getting that 1 spot come pool play.

greenminer · January 19, 2020

38 minutes ago, Andrew said:

Hopefully this Is building to something better than a 15-16 seed...

I think a lot about how these mid-tier conferences are perceived, and how they can improve upon that perception. I speculate two things would help our (CUSA) cause. This would apply to a lot of mid-major conferences:

1) You need a bell-ringer. Have a program that can threaten the top 15 in the country and constantly make OOC noise. wins 30-ish games every year, and people know it will happen.
2) once you have an established top tier team, you want a second tier of teams to also make noise...without threatening the bell-ringer's place in media perception. When you can get 2-4 additional teams that can re-enforce what #1 is already doing OOC you can start getting those 2-3 extra bids. This might take a few years.

Extra important, however, that the #1 team isn't taken down in conference play. If they have 1-2 conference losses, the talking heads have two options to consider: 1) bell-ringer isn't as good as advertised and the rest of the conferece is having a down year, or 2) The bell-ringer is still very good but there are also 2-3 additional teams that are equally good. The media will almost always choose the first option. This is the uphill battle we face as mid-major.

This is just me speculating after what I saw when Memphis/Calipari was in the league. It was frustrating to watch them get all the attention, but if they lost then the conference didn't seem to get ANY attention.

@CMJ would probably have a better opinion of this.

greenminer · January 19, 2020

Holy mokes just noticed the Rice game is TOMORROW

CMJ · January 19, 2020

1 hour ago, greenminer said:

I think a lot about how these mid-tier conferences are perceived, and how they can improve upon that perception. I speculate two things would help our (CUSA) cause. This would apply to a lot of mid-major conferences:

1) You need a bell-ringer. Have a program that can threaten the top 15 in the country and constantly make OOC noise. wins 30-ish games every year, and people know it will happen.
2) once you have an established top tier team, you want a second tier of teams to also make noise...without threatening the bell-ringer's place in media perception. When you can get 2-4 additional teams that can re-enforce what #1 is already doing OOC you can start getting those 2-3 extra bids. This might take a few years.

Extra important, however, that the #1 team isn't taken down in conference play. If they have 1-2 conference losses, the talking heads have two options to consider: 1) bell-ringer isn't as good as advertised and the rest of the conferece is having a down year, or 2) The bell-ringer is still very good but there are also 2-3 additional teams that are equally good. The media will almost always choose the first option. This is the uphill battle we face as mid-major.

This is just me speculating after what I saw when Memphis/Calipari was in the league. It was frustrating to watch them get all the attention, but if they lost then the conference didn't seem to get ANY attention.

@CMJ would probably have a better opinion of this.

No, you summed it up really well.

NM Green · January 20, 2020

See the west coast conference. Gonzaga gets the glory and has established themselves as the best. St. Mary’s challenges to keep bell ringer on their toes. BYU has name recognition and can upset the bell ringer and conference challenger. That’s pretty much it every year in that league.
GMG

Andrew · January 20, 2020

5 hours ago, BillySee58 said:

Gonna be tough with the amount of losses. Not much margin for error but hey, MTSU was a 15 seed in 2015 then got a 12 seed the next year. Just need to focus on getting that 1 spot come pool play.

We don’t have many bad losses, at least in my mind. EMU, Rhode Island, and OU maybe. We played tough teams.

UNTLifer · January 20, 2020

WKU was a bad loss.

Mean Green Matt · January 20, 2020

3 hours ago, UNTLifer said:

WKU was a bad loss.

Only because of how it happened.

NorthTexasSportsNetwork · January 20, 2020

18 hours ago, Andrew said:

We don’t have many bad losses, at least in my mind. EMU, Rhode Island, and OU maybe. We played tough teams.

2 of those 3 are making the tournament though. We've also beat teams that have a good chance at winning their conference

Andrew · January 21, 2020

1 hour ago, NorthTexasSportsNetwork said:

2 of those 3 are making the tournament though. We've also beat teams that have a good chance at winning their conference

Hence the strong schedule, it those 3 bother me because the two at home we had in the bag I thought.

BillySee58 · January 21, 2020

Just now, Andrew said:

Hence the strong schedule, it those 3 bother me because the two at home we had in the bag I thought.

EMU has not done us any favors. They have terrible

Andrew · January 21, 2020

1 hour ago, BillySee58 said:

EMU has not done us any favors. They have terrible

They started hot, but even did it didn’t make me feel any better haha.

UNTLifer · January 21, 2020

4 hours ago, Mean Green Matt said:

Only because of how it happened.

Umm, isn’t that how bad losses occur?

BillySee58 · January 21, 2020

1 minute ago, UNTLifer said:

Umm, isn’t that how bad losses occur?

We’re talking about bad losses in terms of résumé. A road loss at one of the best CUSA teams who is ranked close to the top 100 in NET isn’t a bad loss. A loss at home to the 235th ranked NET team (EMU) is a bad loss.

Edited January 21, 2020 by BillySee58