Western Kentucky (1/2/20)

meangreenJW · January 4, 2020

9 hours ago, Andrew said:

It seemed like people were very high on him when he came over with Grant, but he hasn’t produced. I can respect Grant for keeping his promise to him if he came along, but it can hard as a fan.

NCAA APR requirements makes it real hard to just jettison kids you don't think can play. Especially in sports with small rosters. I don't fully understand the calculations but you are penalized/rewarded points for both eligibility AND retention. A few dismissals and you can get in bad place including probation. I believe Benfords last two seasons and Grant's first we were really close to the required APR score. It's a 4 year average but we're probably still digging out.

meangreenJW · January 4, 2020

I really lean on the data. Normally by this time of year it starts being pretty reliable. I look at three particular rankings. RPI, KenPom, the new Net Score. KenPom and Net Score are my favorites in that order because they measure more than record and SOS (Strength of Schedule). They measure offensive and defensive efficiencies, pace of play, etc. RPI currently predicts us to be 9-5 in conference before bonus play, KenPom predicts 8-6 before bonus play. Also of note, as of today we are ranked #2 in CUSA in the NCAA's net score, #4 in KenPom and #7 in RPI. KenPom's overall rank is the adustedEm number. That is the number that has UNT #4. So as of today, they are all predicting us to be in the hunt. This is also the closest I've ever seen the top half of the league in rankings in all of these. Lastly, I don't think RPI is used by the NCAA anymore but it was used so long I still track a couple websites that keep it.

1) The Old RPI

Rank Team W/L vs D1 RPI SOS Rnk SOS

117 Rice 7-6 0.5305 130 0.5176

121 W. Kentucky 8-5 0.5275 148 0.5094

131 Louisiana Tech 8-4 0.5219 296 0.4458

142 UTEP 6-6 0.5126 133 0.5168

158 UAB 7-5 0.5005 217 0.4814

166 Marshall 7-7 0.4955 145 0.5107

184 North Texas 4-9 0.4870 62 0.5524

199 Old Dominion 6-9 0.4804 118 0.5241

223 Charlotte 7-6 0.4666 273 0.4587

224 Florida Atlantic 7-5 0.4661 323 0.4321

250 Florida Intl. 7-5 0.4557 347 0.3993

265 Southern Miss 2-10 0.4454 84 0.5365

287 MTSU 1-10 0.4276 101 0.5278

288 UTSA 3-9 0.4273 215 0.4831

2) KENPOM

Team	Overall	Conf	Proj	AdjEM		AdjO		AdjD		AdjT		Conf SOS		Next Game
Louisiana Tech	10-3	1-0	11-3	+12.26	61	107.5	43	95.2	83	69.5	192	-3.15	10	Sat, vs 270 Southern Miss 5:00 PM	(W, 77-59, 94%)
Western Kentucky	8-5	1-0	9-5	+6.11	103	108.2	32	102.0	203	70.4	149	-2.08	9	Sat, vs 202 Rice 5:00 PM	(W, 83-73, 83%)
Marshall	7-7	1-0	8-6	+2.11	136	100.8	163	98.6	139	76.0	12	-7.76	12	Sat, vs 125 North Texas 2:00 PM	(W, 73-70, 59%)
FIU	10-4	1-0	8-6	+0.41	163	99.7	184	99.3	146	76.0	11	-0.86	8	Sat, vs 215 UTSA 7:00 PM	(W, 85-77, 74%)
Charlotte	7-5	1-0	8-6	+0.28	165	94.6	288	94.3	73	66.9	294	-5.10	11	Sat, vs 287 Middle Tennessee 4:00 PM	(W, 71-60, 84%)
Florida Atlantic	9-5	1-0	7-7	-0.86	175	96.8	247	97.7	121	68.2	247	-9.15	13	Sat, vs 119 UTEP 4:00 PM	(W, 63-62, 51%)
Old Dominion	5-9	1-0	7-7	-1.20	180	92.5	311	93.7	65	68.1	253	-15.47	14	Sat, vs 161 UAB 7:00 PM	(W, 60-57, 59%)
UTEP	9-5	0-1	8-6	+3.85	119	97.2	237	93.4	60	68.5	236	+5.10	5	Sat, at 175 Florida Atlantic 4:00 PM	(L, 63-62, 49%)
North Texas	6-8	0-1	8-6	+3.34	125	103.8	104	100.4	164	64.4	343	+11.51	1	Sat, at 136 Marshall 2:00 PM	(L, 73-70, 41%)
UAB	9-5	0-1	7-7	+0.55	161	97.8	220	97.3	114	65.1	337	+5.92	4	Sat, at 180 Old Dominion 7:00 PM	(L, 60-57, 41%)
Rice	8-6	0-1	6-8	-3.30	202	100.4	169	103.7	246	72.6	53	+6.55	3	Sat, at 103 Western Kentucky 5:00 PM	(L, 83-73, 17%)
UTSA	6-8	0-1	5-9	-4.31	215	101.2	150	105.5	294	74.3	24	+3.96	6	Sat, at 163 FIU 7:00 PM	(L, 85-77, 26%)
Southern Miss	4-10	0-1	4-10	-8.33	270	94.8	281	103.2	232	68.0	257	+7.07	2	Sat, at 61 Louisiana Tech 5:00 PM	(L, 77-59, 6%)
Middle Tennessee	4-10	0-1	3-11	-10.45	287	95.4	269	105.8	297	71.8	89	+3.80	7	Sat, at 165 Charlotte 4:00 PM	(L, 71-60, 16%)

3) NCAA's Net Score

Rank Prev School Conf Rec Road Neut Home Non D1

69	71	Louisiana Tech	C-USA	8-3	3-3	0-0	5-0	2-0
111	109	North Texas	C-USA	4-8	1-4	0-2	3-2	2-0
116	119	Western Ky.	C-USA	7-5	1-2	2-2	4-1	1-0
123	115	UTEP	C-USA	6-5	0-4	1-1	5-0	3-0
133	132	Charlotte	C-USA	7-5	1-4	0-0	6-1	0-0
138	161	FIU	C-USA	7-4	3-3	1-1	3-0	3-0
152	153	Old Dominion	C-USA	5-9	1-4	0-3	4-2	0-0
170	202	Marshall	C-USA	6-7	1-4	1-0	4-3	1-0
197	179	UAB	C-USA	7-5	1-3	2-0	4-2	2-0
215	229	Fla. Atlantic	C-USA	6-5	1-4	0-0	5-1	3-0
228	206	Rice	C-USA	6-6	2-3	2-1	2-2	2-0
264	245	UTSA	C-USA	3-8	1-3	0-4	2-1	3-0
293	295	Southern Miss.	C-USA	1-10	0-4	0-3	1-3	3-0
309	299	Middle Tenn.	C-USA	1-10	1-4	0-3	0-3	3-0

Andrew · January 4, 2020

11 hours ago, meangreenJW said:

I really lean on the data. Normally by this time of year it starts being pretty reliable. I look at three particular rankings. RPI, KenPom, the new Net Score. KenPom and Net Score are my favorites in that order because they measure more than record and SOS (Strength of Schedule). They measure offensive and defensive efficiencies, pace of play, etc. RPI currently predicts us to be 9-5 in conference before bonus play, KenPom predicts 8-6 before bonus play. Also of note, as of today we are ranked #2 in CUSA in the NCAA's net score, #4 in KenPom and #7 in RPI. KenPom's overall rank is the adustedEm number. That is the number that has UNT #4. So as of today, they are all predicting us to be in the hunt. This is also the closest I've ever seen the top half of the league in rankings in all of these. Lastly, I don't think RPI is used by the NCAA anymore but it was used so long I still track a couple websites that keep it.

1) The Old RPI

Rank      Team                    W/L vs D1            RPI SOS Rnk SOS

117        Rice                      7-6                        0.5305                130        0.5176

121        W. Kentucky       8-5                      0.5275                  148        0.5094

131        Louisiana Tech   8-4                      0.5219                  296        0.4458

142        UTEP                   6-6                       0.5126                  133        0.5168

158        UAB                     7-5                       0.5005                  217        0.4814

166        Marshall              7-7                       0.4955                  145        0.5107

184        North Texas        4-9                       0.4870                  62           0.5524

199        Old Dominion     6-9                       0.4804                  118        0.5241

223        Charlotte             7-6                       0.4666                  273        0.4587

224        Florida Atlantic   7-5                        0.4661                  323        0.4321

250        Florida Intl.         7-5                       0.4557                  347        0.3993

265        Southern Miss    2-10                      0.4454                  84           0.5365

287        MTSU                   1-10                      0.4276                  101        0.5278

288        UTSA                    3-9                       0.4273                  215        0.4831

2) KENPOM

Team Overall Conf Proj AdjEM AdjO AdjD AdjT Conf SOS Next Game
Louisiana Tech 10-3 1-0 11-3 +12.26 61 107.5 43 95.2 83 69.5 192 -3.15 10 Sat, vs 270 Southern Miss 5:00 PM (W, 77-59, 94%)
Western Kentucky 8-5 1-0 9-5 +6.11 103 108.2 32 102.0 203 70.4 149 -2.08 9 Sat, vs 202 Rice 5:00 PM (W, 83-73, 83%)
Marshall 7-7 1-0 8-6 +2.11 136 100.8 163 98.6 139 76.0 12 -7.76 12 Sat, vs 125 North Texas 2:00 PM (W, 73-70, 59%)
FIU 10-4 1-0 8-6 +0.41 163 99.7 184 99.3 146 76.0 11 -0.86 8 Sat, vs 215 UTSA 7:00 PM (W, 85-77, 74%)
Charlotte 7-5 1-0 8-6 +0.28 165 94.6 288 94.3 73 66.9 294 -5.10 11 Sat, vs 287 Middle Tennessee 4:00 PM (W, 71-60, 84%)
Florida Atlantic 9-5 1-0 7-7 -0.86 175 96.8 247 97.7 121 68.2 247 -9.15 13 Sat, vs 119 UTEP 4:00 PM (W, 63-62, 51%)
Old Dominion 5-9 1-0 7-7 -1.20 180 92.5 311 93.7 65 68.1 253 -15.47 14 Sat, vs 161 UAB 7:00 PM (W, 60-57, 59%)
UTEP 9-5 0-1 8-6 +3.85 119 97.2 237 93.4 60 68.5 236 +5.10 5 Sat, at 175 Florida Atlantic 4:00 PM (L, 63-62, 49%)
North Texas 6-8 0-1 8-6 +3.34 125 103.8 104 100.4 164 64.4 343 +11.51 1 Sat, at 136 Marshall 2:00 PM (L, 73-70, 41%)
UAB 9-5 0-1 7-7 +0.55 161 97.8 220 97.3 114 65.1 337 +5.92 4 Sat, at 180 Old Dominion 7:00 PM (L, 60-57, 41%)
Rice 8-6 0-1 6-8 -3.30 202 100.4 169 103.7 246 72.6 53 +6.55 3 Sat, at 103 Western Kentucky 5:00 PM (L, 83-73, 17%)
UTSA 6-8 0-1 5-9 -4.31 215 101.2 150 105.5 294 74.3 24 +3.96 6 Sat, at 163 FIU 7:00 PM (L, 85-77, 26%)
Southern Miss 4-10 0-1 4-10 -8.33 270 94.8 281 103.2 232 68.0 257 +7.07 2 Sat, at 61 Louisiana Tech 5:00 PM (L, 77-59, 6%)
Middle Tennessee 4-10 0-1 3-11 -10.45 287 95.4 269 105.8 297 71.8 89 +3.80 7 Sat, at 165 Charlotte 4:00 PM (L, 71-60, 16%)
3) NCAA's Net Score

Rank Prev School Conf Rec Road Neut Home Non D1

69
71 Louisiana Tech C-USA 8-3 3-3 0-0 5-0 2-0
111 109 North Texas C-USA 4-8 1-4 0-2 3-2 2-0
116 119 Western Ky. C-USA 7-5 1-2 2-2 4-1 1-0
123 115 UTEP C-USA 6-5 0-4 1-1 5-0 3-0
133 132 Charlotte C-USA 7-5 1-4 0-0 6-1 0-0
138 161 FIU C-USA 7-4 3-3 1-1 3-0 3-0
152 153 Old Dominion C-USA 5-9 1-4 0-3 4-2 0-0
170 202 Marshall C-USA 6-7 1-4 1-0 4-3 1-0
197 179 UAB C-USA 7-5 1-3 2-0 4-2 2-0
215 229 Fla. Atlantic C-USA 6-5 1-4 0-0 5-1 3-0
228 206 Rice C-USA 6-6 2-3 2-1 2-2 2-0
264 245 UTSA C-USA 3-8 1-3 0-4 2-1 3-0
293 295 Southern Miss. C-USA 1-10 0-4 0-3 1-3 3-0
309 299 Middle Tenn. C-USA 1-10 1-4 0-3 0-3 3-0

Not a Sagrin guy?

meangreenJW · January 5, 2020

9 hours ago, Andrew said:

Not a Sagrin guy?

I do follow it. I think it's a little better predictor in football. For me its a secondary one I look at in hoops.

meangreenJW · January 5, 2020

We moved from #125 to #120 in KenPom today. Here's predictions and probability for the rest of the season. When looking at individual games, KenPom has us winning 10 of the next 12. However, each of those have a probability associated with it. Some some of the wins would be more in doubt so official projection for the rest of the current schedule is 8-4. NOTE: Bonus play not currently factored in.

Thu Jan 9	163	FIU	W, 74-68	70	71%	Home		×
Sat Jan 11	175	Florida Atlantic	W, 66-60	63	72%	Home		×
Thu Jan 16	271	Southern Miss	W, 66-62	63	66%	Away		×
Sat Jan 18	56	Louisiana Tech	L, 71-62	64	20%	Away		×
Mon Jan 20	198	Rice	W, 73-65	67	78%	Home		×
Thu Jan 23	217	UTSA	W, 77-68	68	80%	Home		×
Sat Jan 25	123	UTEP	W, 64-60	63	63%	Home		×
Sat Feb 1	198	Rice	W, 70-68	67	55%	Away		×
Thu Feb 6	286	Middle Tennessee	W, 71-65	66	71%	Away		×
Sat Feb 8	172	UAB	L, 61-60	61	46%	Away		×
Thu Feb 13	167	Charlotte	W, 63-57	62	70%	Home		×
Sat Feb 15	178	Old Dominion	W, 63-57	63	72%	Home		×
Projected record:							15-12	9-5
Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the sum of individual game predictions.

GrandGreen · January 5, 2020

On 1/3/2020 at 10:53 PM, meangreenJW said:

NCAA APR requirements makes it real hard to just jettison kids you don't think can play. Especially in sports with small rosters. I don't fully understand the calculations but you are penalized/rewarded points for both eligibility AND retention. A few dismissals and you can get in bad place including probation. I believe Benfords last two seasons and Grant's first we were really close to the required APR score. It's a 4 year average but we're probably still digging out.

There is a lot of turnover in basketball rosters, much more on a percentage basis than football.

The APR obviously relates to academic progress, not turnover rate. I don't believe it is a significant factor in McCasland's strategy.

Players transferring in good academic condition and those going pro are generally exclusions to the computation.

I believe McCasland just does not want to force anyone out. Muhammad is getting a few minutes, but I don't think McCasland trusts his defense. Alcindor appears to be redshirted, which makes no sense if McCasland didn't want him on the team.

NT has to find a replacement for Geu next year. Going into the season with only Simmons, Simmons, Bell and Alcindor the front court is frightening.

If no one else leaves, NT will have only 2 ships available. Both should be bigs unless a megastar is available on the outside.

meangreenJW · January 7, 2020

On 1/5/2020 at 1:18 AM, GrandGreen said:

There is a lot of turnover in basketball rosters, much more on a percentage basis than football.

The APR obviously relates to academic progress, not turnover rate. I don't believe it is a significant factor in McCasland's strategy.

Players transferring in good academic condition and those going pro are generally exclusions to the computation.

I believe McCasland just does not want to force anyone out. Muhammad is getting a few minutes, but I don't think McCasland trusts his defense. Alcindor appears to be redshirted, which makes no sense if McCasland didn't want him on the team.

NT has to find a replacement for Geu next year. Going into the season with only Simmons, Simmons, Bell and Alcindor the front court is frightening.

If no one else leaves, NT will have only 2 ships available. Both should be bigs unless a megastar is available on the outside.

That isn't correct. I've read up on this before. It's two sided (academic progress and retention). I certainly understand the confusion given the name it "Academic Progress Rate" but academic progress and retention receive the EXACT same number of points in the formula. Found a link from the NCAA that explains it in their language.

http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/research/academic-progress-rate-explained

In my language, I think of it is a baseball average. Each athlete has four possible points (at bats). Two retention, two academic progress (one each for fall and spring term). Let's say makes academic progress in the fall and is retained for the spring, then makes academic progress in the spring but leaves the program (by their own choice or the coach's). The athlete got 3 out 4 points. Using our baseball analogy, the athlete batted .750. The NCAA required minimum is .930. So you'll 4 student-athletes going 4 out 4 to get back above the minimum. If you have one come in and not make academic progress and not be retained (losing two points), it take a LOT to make that up.

The NCAA has a website where you can look up every school's APR for every sport. UNT basketball the last few years is posted below. Two quick things. 1) it got dangerously close to .930 under Benford. 2) It has improved every year under McCasland. Long story short, I get the criticism on should we have taken some of these players, but regardless of what some might think, the NCAA rules do not allow you to just send them packing anytime you want.

Men's Basketball	University of North Texas	TX	2013-2014	941
Men's Basketball	University of North Texas	TX	2014-2015	947
Men's Basketball	University of North Texas	TX	2015-2016	958
Men's Basketball	University of North Texas	TX	2016-2017	964
Men's Basketball	University of North Texas	TX	2017-2018	966

BillySee58 · March 2, 2020

On 1/2/2020 at 8:31 PM, Andrew said:

I’m still wondering who thinks we will hit ten conference wins. We should, but then again we should have won tonight... 🤷🏼‍♂️

Pulling out receipts

Edited March 2, 2020 by BillySee58